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#1453261 - 18/02/2018 11:45 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Had a fire behind my house today. Got pretty nuts for about an hour. Came right up to back fence. rfs have only just left after the fire started at 9am. Man, when you get those gusts. It's a timely reminder of how fast a fire can move.


Glad you got away with it funky. Even a strong southerly will be dangerous in these conditions. I have a feeling this drought wants to strangle us and then finish us off with fires before it gives up.

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#1453264 - 18/02/2018 11:57 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Bloody hell GringosRain,as if it isn't hot and dry enough.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1453265 - 18/02/2018 12:03 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Tomorrow should see a moisture influx for E NSW before a more significant change later in the week as the remnants of Kelvin combine with an inland trough. We could be seeing the end of this stagnant pattern.

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#1453266 - 18/02/2018 12:06 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
We are stuck in the middle of where the moisture is. Kimberley to the left. NZ to the right. A sorry tale
_________________________
Land Ahoy! Ooops!

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#1453269 - 18/02/2018 12:42 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Long Road Home]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Tomorrow should see a moisture influx for E NSW before a more significant change later in the week as the remnants of Kelvin combine with an inland trough. We could be seeing the end of this stagnant pattern.


It would appear there is a sniff of a change....but 18z GFS just shows that moisture being pulled away to the south and almost nothing making it into NSW. Then the ridge just is straight back into position. Access is better, but the point is there isnt much to be confident about There is some more dynamics in the uppers, but it still the ridge persists.

5mm isnt going to cut it, we need multiple 50mm falls here quickly. Have large swathes of eucalyptus dying now.

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#1453278 - 18/02/2018 14:53 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 149
Loc: Penrith, NSW
I want an ECL parked off sydney dumping rain for a week all the way from sydney cbd to katoomba!

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#1453281 - 18/02/2018 15:36 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
First time in months a day before forecast has upgraded! Now going for 10-20mm here has been 5-10 for days. Hopefully we can jag some heavier stuff as we’ve had ~40mm in 12 weeks. The escarpment has fared much better, as usual.

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#1453285 - 18/02/2018 16:14 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney (OH) has had 123mm so far this Summer (80 days since Dec 1) out of an expected 254mm, about 48%. But it has done better than most parts of Sydney, having been in the path of a narrow rain train on the 3rd of this month, plus a couple of storms that most of Sydney didn't get.

Bankstown has received 59mm of an expected 226, about 26% of what's expected. There hasn't been a drop of rain there since January 19, i.e. 30 days. Bankstown did miss out on the storms from last week.

Probably most of Sydney has is tracking about one third of average rainfall fir Summer.

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#1453287 - 18/02/2018 16:28 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The latest forecast ups rainfall totals upped to 14-30mm for Sydney and Penrith Monday and Tuesday, 8-16 for Bathurst (mostly Monday).

Wollongong on forecast to get 14-30, Newcastle 10-29.

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#1453288 - 18/02/2018 16:29 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Rainfall totals have been upped this afternoon for tomorrow and Tuesday.
Hallelujah!

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#1453289 - 18/02/2018 16:29 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Jinx Steve777.

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#1453291 - 18/02/2018 17:13 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Quagmelson Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 1009
Loc: Glenorie NSW
I will shout hallelujah when a shower rather than humid induced sweat at work drenches my tshirt! Good sign though. May it be

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#1453293 - 18/02/2018 17:48 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
There is the start of maybe more tomorrow,there is a small cell just north of Colo.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1453294 - 18/02/2018 17:50 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 1030
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Sailing over the north of New Caledonia and the temperature is 28 degrees in open water. Yet the weather pattern at home doesn't want a bar of it. It's so warm and muggy, I will be thankful for the day this blocking pattern buggers off at home.


Edited by Perfect Storm (18/02/2018 17:54)
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would be full of highs and lows.

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#1453296 - 18/02/2018 17:53 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Perfect Storm]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Perfect Storm
Sailing over the north of New Caledonia and the temperature is 28 degrees. Yet the weather pattern at home doesn't want a bar of it. It's so warm and muggy, I will be thankful for the day this blocking pattern buggers off at home.


Hope you're enjoying your cruise PS. Cruises are great holidays!!
What's the swell like from the cyclone?

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#1453300 - 18/02/2018 18:04 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 1030
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Hey Homer. Hardly felt it. Water is quite calm. Here's a snap of me and the water.

https://ibb.co/i2Zxkn
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would be full of highs and lows.

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#1453301 - 18/02/2018 18:13 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Perfect Storm]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Perfect Storm
Hey Homer. Hardly felt it. Water is quite calm. Here's a snap of me and the water.

https://ibb.co/i2Zxkn


Looks totally flat! Nice pic.

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#1453302 - 18/02/2018 18:21 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 1030
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Thanks Kino, it's quite calm. Very little wind. Beautiful.
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would be full of highs and lows.

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#1453305 - 18/02/2018 18:30 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Yes PS, that looks very calm. Much like a lot of the cruise I went on about 2 years ago.
Although, I was on level 3 (down the bottom) and for the first few days the swell was quite large and the waves were coming up over our window - at times we were completely below the water level. It was quite eerie, but fun, and never scary.

Maybe the island of New Caledonia is deflecting the swell around where you are atm?

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#1453307 - 18/02/2018 18:43 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
Long swell period swells have a lot of stored energy. They might not be noticed all that much in deeper waters as the energy is stored at more depth. Once these kind of swells encounter shallower water it is a whole new ball game as that energy is released. So I wouldn't put too much emphasis on what appear as a calmish sea surfaces. Remembering that there isn't a correlation between a long period swell and local 'seas'. You might have rough seas from a localised blow but no long period swell at all. You can have it the other way with calm seas but gargantuan above 14sec and over long period swell.
_________________________
Land Ahoy! Ooops!

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