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#1453371 - 19/02/2018 13:14 SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 454
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Models have pretty much aligned that there will be quite a broad upper level low to develop over QLD over the coming days as well as a moistening onshore flow that is going to feed into it. There doesn't appear to be a certain big day just some really hefty widespread showers that could produce localised heavy falls. Unless a weak surface coastal trough manages form if it does it'll be later in the week.


Edited by Seabreeze (27/02/2018 18:14)
Edit Reason: corrected year
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#1453378 - 19/02/2018 13:48 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1123
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Looks to be some possibly good falls tonight/tomorrow around our area, fingers crossed. No thread for these days?

While we got 13mm that we did appreciate on Saturday, our neighbours less than 5 mins away got 75mm! That was a great drop for them and I think they'd be pretty stoked about now as they do cropping and cattle.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-122, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1453407 - 19/02/2018 16:13 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
LDRcycles Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 43
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
I'll be grateful for whatever we get, the grass is growing well from the last couple of storms but the deeper moisture is still lacking, the creeks and dams need a good topping up before winter.

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#1453414 - 19/02/2018 16:43 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
LDRcycles Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 43
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Radar's looking good, with a bit of luck one of the storms building at the southern end of the Bunyas will track our way.

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#1453431 - 19/02/2018 17:33 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
Upper low as in cold pool? Temps at 500 level are still fairly warm for the dates you mentioned?

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#1453447 - 19/02/2018 19:07 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2084
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I wouldn't get too excited. The main falls are highly likely to be offshore. Still, I guess 50 mm across SEQ is pretty decent anyway.

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#1453455 - 19/02/2018 20:08 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3117
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea I guess its not super cold up there but cold enough to support convection. Shear isnt anything to write home about but its pretty good through the central interior if your looking at soundings you will see some of those days the levels are quite saturated though lapse rates look abit shallow to support strong thunderstorms, to me it doesn't look like a classic thunderstorm set up but more like a cloudy overcast and some enhanced onshore flow maybe the odd thundershower and hopefully inland areas get some gental soaking rain. Nothing sticks out yet as anything exciting but central inland QLD is a different story and actually looks descent for storms..


Edited by Steve O (19/02/2018 20:18)
Edit Reason: Stuck inside SEQ bubble

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#1453465 - 19/02/2018 21:17 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 454
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Well definitely inland areas will do better with the storm activity as it's in an area with greater instability. Why I got a little bit excited of this event as it's the first time for a few months that a decent upper low is forecast to develop to our NW (even though 500hpa temps are forecast of -8 to -9 it's quite good for summer) and it is going to make the onshore flow really deep with a forecast easterly upwards to 30000 feet (As it stands now). I find it quite common in these sort of setups that models can under estimate rainfall totals for the nearby coast and hinterland. Also charts are showing a surface trough that digs south on Friday and that could increase rainfall later Thursday/Friday for the SE.


Edited by Squeako_88 (19/02/2018 21:19)
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#1453466 - 19/02/2018 21:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1460
Loc: Kingaroy
Damned huge storms to our west; lots of flash and bang here. No doubt hitting some who don't need any more destruction, so I hope the wind is gentles there.
Also looking good for some late night action here (in the sky I mean). Will be interesting to see what makes it over the hill.
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#1453472 - 19/02/2018 21:41 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5109
I might reserve my discussion about the next few days (before the start date of this thread) for the day to day thread but just wanted to add to what Squeako said.

Our best case scenario would be if we got good deep isentropic upslide (ideal being low level E or NE'lies gradually backing around to N'lies and NW'lies with height) combined with moderate or better instability, high precipitable water values/deep moisture and that convergence zone/coastal trough pushing down along the coast later this week to really focus the rainfall (or even a small low).
We need the upper low to move in the right track.

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#1453482 - 19/02/2018 22:36 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2084
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The positioning of the upper low and its effects on the placement of the coastal trough are key here. I've seen many of these set-ups sit tantalizingly offshore dumping big falls. Models do underestimate rainfall in these setups, especially in the hinterlands which always do well (Springbrook comes to mind). This set-up could deliver anywhere between 50 and 200+ depending on the positioning.

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#1453487 - 19/02/2018 22:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1460
Loc: Kingaroy
Well we're about to snuggle down to a late night storm. Once again it's very noisy & stretches out for a while. Hope it doesn't interrupt my Olympic viewing, lol.

edit: and with that post I lost Ch 7 .... hate living in the country


Edited by Kazz63 (19/02/2018 23:05)
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#1453488 - 19/02/2018 23:10 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1123
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Channel 7 and internet is dodgy Kazza lol. Still love the country though. I got some GREAT lightning opportunities this evening and managed a few decent pics, will try to put some up tomorrow. I could cry watching the heavy rain split around us and reform on the other side of me, we'd love a real downpour. Looks like Dalby and Jandowae got some good falls looking at OzForecast.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-122, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1453489 - 19/02/2018 23:14 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1460
Loc: Kingaroy
Excellent news Lani;rain has just started here. Might be cool enough for a full night's sleep! lol
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Sherlock Holmes 28 March 13:08

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#1453499 - 20/02/2018 01:50 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 568
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Interesting, , !
We might have caught 3-5mm in last week of capers, & maybe 10-15mm over last month; & due to the recent heat its all gone and browned over most of local lawns, again.
So have just wet our grass, whats left of it, do again tomoz (soften it up) and hopefully any coming showers will add to it. Havent had a good lawn for months, just sayin',,,
Looking forward to the cooler temps, at least tho cool
Hope you peeps out west get a good drop, know you need it....
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#1453504 - 20/02/2018 06:30 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1786
Loc: Kingaroy
Rumbling away here.

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#1453513 - 20/02/2018 08:05 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1123
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
It has been flashing, banging and raining on and off all night. One bang was so close it propelled me out of bed at 3am this morning lol. Raining and rumbling again now and it is wet outside grin thank the rain gods!
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-122, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1453518 - 20/02/2018 08:30 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Lani]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2084
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Access-R suggesting that storm complex inland is going to significantly intensify and track through half of Qld in the next 24 hours and exit out near Townsville midday tomorrow. This could be one to watch.

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#1453521 - 20/02/2018 09:21 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1771
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Storms firing up in a line from Injune to the border . Heard some houses loss roofs north of Roma at Orange hill yesterday arvo.
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Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1453530 - 20/02/2018 10:08 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Upper Low showers/rain possible storms 20 Feb-26 Feb 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1771
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Just had a cell form quick then go through town And on the radar a 100 km line of lightning strikes around the same time in a line but no radar signature interesting .
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Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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