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#1454347 - 24/02/2018 17:04 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: ashestoashes]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6199
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Damn the forecast has been upgraded even more for Sydney tomorrow and Monday. Over the two days Sydney: 35-65, Penrith: 40-80.


Isn't that good though?

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#1454352 - 24/02/2018 17:09 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Homer]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 628
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Damn the forecast has been upgraded even more for Sydney tomorrow and Monday. Over the two days Sydney: 35-65, Penrith: 40-80.


Isn't that good though?

I said 'damn' as a statement of surprise that an event that was listed as 1-5 mm about a week ago has been upgraded, the good thing about this event is widespread upon drought-stricken areas. On another note seems have cell up over me that keeps giving, been absolutely pouring for the last 20 mins.

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#1454361 - 24/02/2018 17:31 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: ashestoashes]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6199
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Damn the forecast has been upgraded even more for Sydney tomorrow and Monday. Over the two days Sydney: 35-65, Penrith: 40-80.


Isn't that good though?

I said 'damn' as a statement of surprise that an event that was listed as 1-5 mm about a week ago has been upgraded, the good thing about this event is widespread upon drought-stricken areas. On another note seems have cell up over me that keeps giving, been absolutely pouring for the last 20 mins.


Ok. All good.
As for the rain, glad you're getting some. Sounds a bit like what I got earlier.
Skies appear to be drying out a little atm, at least for the time being.
Bring on tomorrow!!

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#1454377 - 24/02/2018 18:14 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2660
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Grossly humid.
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#1454379 - 24/02/2018 18:28 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 597
Loc: South West Sydney
Nice storm without much thunder or lightning about a hour ago through Riverwood. It went through fast. Temps rising again.

SW winds registered through Gabo Island. Maybe the change will be through earlier than expected. Here's hoping.
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#1454384 - 24/02/2018 19:01 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2660
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
If the change thru Gabo maintained a speed of 50kmh it would take around 8 hours to cover the 'as the crow flies' to southern outskirts of Sydney (Wattamolla).
396km
Handy distance tool here http://tjpeiffer.com/crowflies.html


Saves having to do this
(a = sinē(Δφ/2) + cos φ1 ⋅ cos φ2 ⋅ sinē(Δλ/2)c = 2 ⋅ atan2( √a, √(1−a) )d = R ⋅ c)


But seeing these changes don't follow a constant speed it could be earlier or later. What was the original forecast arrival time for it Petar?


Edited by Knot (24/02/2018 19:05)
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#1454390 - 24/02/2018 19:19 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2660
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Thats the coastal arrival. Wrap around means inland often gets the change before right on the coasters
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#1454392 - 24/02/2018 19:20 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 681
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
It bucketed down at Chipping Norton around 4:45pm, and it lasted for about 15 mins, so much so that I walked around with just a pair of shorts to enjoy it!

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#1454393 - 24/02/2018 19:21 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7210
Looks like the Hunter in particular will do really well out of this event. I'm thinking I should make a thread but I have no useful information to contribute to kick it off.
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#1454394 - 24/02/2018 19:23 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 628
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
We should be getting another thunderstorm later tonight because there is a line just west of Canberra right now and it's lightning active. Also here it has warmed back up to 30 degrees after dropping down to 25.6 during the rain.

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#1454396 - 24/02/2018 19:24 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Knot]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6199
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Knot
If the change thru Gabo maintained a speed of 50kmh it would take around 8 hours to cover the 'as the crow flies' to southern outskirts of Sydney (Wattamolla).
396km
Handy distance tool here http://tjpeiffer.com/crowflies.html


What was the original forecast arrival time for it Petar?


Well, BOM are saying tomorrow evening.

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml

Quote:
Sydney area
Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the evening.

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#1454399 - 24/02/2018 19:33 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7210
Lol GFS has the southerly coming about 4am and a southerly all day tomorrow, don't know what BoM is seeing. Windyty (ECMWF) is roughly similar.

Anyway I decided to make a thread.


Edited by Wave Rider (24/02/2018 19:40)
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#1454403 - 24/02/2018 19:45 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6199
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Lol GFS has the southerly coming about 4am and a southerly all day tomorrow, don't know what BoM is seeing. Windyty (ECMWF) is roughly similar.

Anyway I decided to make a thread.


Yeh, I thought that forecast was rather amusing as well. Not sure what they're smoing in there today. smile
Anyway, thanks for making the thread.
I'll catch ya's over there. smile


Edited by Homer (24/02/2018 19:46)

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#1454406 - 24/02/2018 19:55 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2660
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Thanx Homer. Bom timing seems a bit out.
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#1454410 - 24/02/2018 20:10 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Knot]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 597
Loc: South West Sydney
Originally Posted By: Knot
If the change thru Gabo maintained a speed of 50kmh it would take around 8 hours to cover the 'as the crow flies' to southern outskirts of Sydney (Wattamolla).
396km
Handy distance tool here http://tjpeiffer.com/crowflies.html


Saves having to do this
(a = sinē(Δφ/2) + cos φ1 ⋅ cos φ2 ⋅ sinē(Δλ/2)c = 2 ⋅ atan2( √a, √(1−a) )d = R ⋅ c)


But seeing these changes don't follow a constant speed it could be earlier or later. What was the original forecast arrival time for it Petar?


Cheers for that website link Knot. The change was expected around 7am Sunday morning for southern Sydney. However Illawarra Stormchaser page is saying they are expecting it approx 12-2 am.
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#1454412 - 24/02/2018 20:12 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Wave Rider]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 597
Loc: South West Sydney
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Lol GFS has the southerly coming about 4am and a southerly all day tomorrow, don't know what BoM is seeing. Windyty (ECMWF) is roughly similar.

Anyway I decided to make a thread.


I noticed the BoM had changed their previous forecast this afternoon. Windytv also has it reaching Sydney early AM, very early. And southerlies all day tomorrow and showers.

Unless the BoM believes the southerly change will stall?
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#1454421 - 24/02/2018 21:00 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1247
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
36C forecast was met.
@ Knot, Singo also got to 37C as per forecast.
Cooranbong is not a place I look at a lot, a small town just off the highway I never go to, but the heat was fairly consistent across the Hunter today.
Looking forward to this rain event coming.
Edit, just looked at Penrith, running ahead of the record Feb of 2004 average max right now, despite only 1 day over 40C, just relentlessly above average temps this month.
Nice to Feb 2004 still holding some records from Feb 2017, including the state record, that was a brutal event.


Edited by DerekHV (24/02/2018 21:08)

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#1454435 - 24/02/2018 22:08 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5386
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Well I played cricket at Gresford today and it was tough going, car thermometer read 37c at 12.30pm, humidity was high too, some towers tried to get going but couldn't produce the goods just some spits here and there.

Bring on these next 2 days if the forecast is to be believed!!
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#1454439 - 24/02/2018 23:05 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2265
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Look's like a 1mm drop if we are lucky again. These slow moving fronts are weak as these days.
What happened to all the moister coming from the north?

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#1454451 - 25/02/2018 00:48 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 597
Loc: South West Sydney
Southerly change moving through the central parts of the Illawarra. Expecting approx 4 am southerly winds into the Sydney suburbs.
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