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#1454800 - 26/02/2018 17:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25463
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yeah it is that bad mate. pretty sad state of affairs.

EC though have this low being pushed northwards Thur into Fri giving Townsville area 100-200mm.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1454817 - 26/02/2018 18:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13364
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Looks like there is another(?) circulation ab out 200km ENE of Bowen on the visible sat image.
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1454845 - 26/02/2018 20:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
So this little low that seems to have spun up just south of townsville north of bowen. Would that make the rain and small scud storms we are having townsville kind of like little feeder bands i guess i want to call them???

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#1454876 - 26/02/2018 23:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Still no significant lows for tc develop on the horizon....either be a late bloomer or first year to have nothing in the CS.
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1454877 - 27/02/2018 00:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25463
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
good shower activity around the low at present off from the Whitsundays, also some half decent convergence over Creal Reef.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1454909 - 27/02/2018 11:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
You saying theres a chance of this intensifying?
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1454926 - 27/02/2018 13:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
I cant see where he said that
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1454928 - 27/02/2018 13:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7898
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The Coral Sea is a joke.

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#1454937 - 27/02/2018 15:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
I can feel your frustration Mega but be careful what you wish for. Nature always seems to come back to equilibrium, all that pent up energy in the CS will need to be released one way or another.

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#1454938 - 27/02/2018 16:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
I can feel your frustration Mega but be careful what you wish for. Nature always seems to come back to equilibrium, all that pent up energy in the CS will need to be released one way or another.

It's nice to think so. And we've had very late TC activity before. But logic also dictates that persistently warmer than normal sea surface temps don't always end up finishing the season with a big bang. It's no use having warm SST's for ages if there's no suitable triggers (e.g. equatorial Rossby waves, etc etc), sufficiently weak shear, sufficiently deep moisture and instability that line up in just the right way to utilise those warm waters and allow decent TC's to form.
You also need the right synoptic steering to direct any TC's towards the coast (no use if lots of TC's form in the Coral Sea if they're continually getting steered SE towards the graveyard).

Not quite TC-related but so many people were also talking about how the significantly warmer than normal waters off the east coast were bound to cause a much wetter than normal summer. But like many times in the past, it was much drier than normal until recently along large sections because the synoptic patterns weren't cooperating to take advantage of it.

Who knows how this season will end up.

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#1454939 - 27/02/2018 16:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7898
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
I can feel your frustration Mega but be careful what you wish for. Nature always seems to come back to equilibrium, all that pent up energy in the CS will need to be released one way or another.


It was kinda reverse psychology. I said the same thing this time last year and Debbie rolled through in March.

All I know is the window of opportunities for TC genesis and westward moving TC's in the Coral Sea seems to be much less than that of other tropical basins in the world. You will basically get maybe 4-5 days worth of deep layer ridging across the Coral Sea followed by 3 weeks of westerlies caused by troughing. Don't know why, and nobody seems to be able to provide any logical explanation to it either.

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#1454944 - 27/02/2018 17:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Yes, a lot of ducks need to line up but when was the last time we had no cyclones?

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#1454945 - 27/02/2018 17:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
It's the southern-isolating cross-oscillating vector-factor that's the cause of the uncertainty - not to mention Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. wink
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#1454946 - 27/02/2018 17:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Caillin Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/03/2012
Posts: 17
lol, I don't think superposition at the subatomic level is going to have any bearing on macro scale weather events smile

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#1454949 - 27/02/2018 17:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Gosh, Mick, has it come to this? Getting excited over an eddy spinning up.

I'm getting very excited. Just watching that eddy on the latest EC and seems to slowly make its way inland through QLD and the NT up the Top End and pop off the West Australian coast to give us our ??? 5th or 6th system of the year over here in Broome. Cheers guys. Pack her up, load her with moisture and send her over to the West. smile cheers
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18022700&fh=192
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1454958 - 27/02/2018 18:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Popeye you really aren't helping! As I said nature likes equilibrium, one day you will get zip and we will get 3000mm. Now go back to your never ending torrential downpours and leave us poor parched devil's alone...

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#1454959 - 27/02/2018 18:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
I cant see where he said that


I didnt say he did bit I was asking if its possible...worded it wrong
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1454960 - 27/02/2018 18:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Yeah Pee off Popeye LOL, you guys have seen more rain in these two months then townsville has seen in a couple years.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1454964 - 27/02/2018 19:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I do feel for you guys. I have missed coming in here and stirring you QLD crew. But I just thought it would be plain mean if I did. So I have let you be. No doubt something will crank eventually. Read the latest BOM trop notes. Something might fire for QLD after NT and WA has had a go first.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1454968 - 27/02/2018 19:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
If I was living in N QLD, think I'd much rather this scattered/widespread activity than a TC which would hog all the moisture and give most places less.

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