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#1453398 - 19/02/2018 15:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Another gfs tease that will most likely never happen on long range
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#1453493 - 19/02/2018 23:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 336
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Another gfs tease that will most likely never happen on long range


Aaaand gooooone in 06z! lol. Gotta laugh.

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#1453548 - 20/02/2018 11:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25463
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
18z has a cat 3 crossing the whitsundays at a fast speed, but its a long, long way out.
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June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
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#1453552 - 20/02/2018 11:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
It wont happen. Although the Mjo should arrive next month, hopefully with another monsoon burst that actually eff3cts us.
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#1453567 - 20/02/2018 13:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
GFS deterministic + long range + TC scenarios = almost like flipping a coin.

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#1453571 - 20/02/2018 13:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
GFS deterministic + long range + TC scenarios = almost like flipping a coin.


Pretty much like any long range of any kind lol, I will say its gonna happen after it happens...best way to do it lol
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#1453573 - 20/02/2018 13:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
Multi model ensembles give a better idea of the uncertainty/confidence of scenarios at longer ranges than a single deterministic version of a model thatís notoriously dodgy at longer ranges (e.g. the recent SE QLD twin cyclone impact scenarios from GFS). But GFS is good entertainment value Iíll give it that!

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#1453584 - 20/02/2018 15:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
GFS loves to tease us this year...its like look cyclone...hahaha took it away...looks heres another....noo just kiddings....takes it away.
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#1453622 - 20/02/2018 19:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 336
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
GFS loves to tease us this year...its like look cyclone...hahaha took it away...looks heres another....noo just kiddings....takes it away.


GFS be like...


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#1453623 - 20/02/2018 19:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3856
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
LOL

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#1453629 - 20/02/2018 20:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Multi model ensembles give a better idea of the uncertainty/confidence of scenarios at longer ranges than a single deterministic version of a model thatís notoriously dodgy at longer ranges (e.g. the recent SE QLD twin cyclone impact scenarios from GFS). But GFS is good entertainment value Iíll give it that!




Totally agree Ken. Have been quite fanatical in learning about the various Models (to the degree that one can) since TC Larry in 2006. What i've found most beneficial, is monitoring a potential TC formation (long-range) and following subsequent Model runs across a range of Models to observe whether the Models converge or diverge. Heaven knows i'm still learning and a large part of that is found within the contributions of numerous Forum Members over the years.

The multi-model ensemble you shared recently was great to understand the potential track of TC Gita recently. Found it interesting that the JTWC Model didn't vary that much from the earlier runs to the latter. If memory serves me correctly, I think a number of the Models forecast similar tracks relatively early in the piece as well.

Thought it even more interesting that one of the Model runs for 2 seperate Models I think, also forecast crossings around Hervey Bay and Brisbane / Gold Coast areas - liked the comment you made about an article within the 'media' . Model runs adjacent to the specific runs suggested (I thought at least), these runs were outliers if anything. Unless of course, one or more of the Inputs had a significant impact on the broader Model run itself.

Glad to see you still contributing after all these years.

Chrs

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#1453632 - 20/02/2018 20:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
Thanks Chris, there's been a few times I was on the verge of leaving though lol.

Yeah the map below for Gita shows the usefulness of ensembles in gauging what the spread of possible future tracks is like and uncertainty/confidence. The ensembles in this map were run way back on the 9th Feb just as Gita was named.

The black line is the observed track while the coloured lines are from a range of ensembles (including the ensemble versions of GFS, EC, UK, etc). You can see that while Gita's forecast track trended west for awhile, it's observed track still lay just inside the main spread of scenarios.

In contrast, the standard deterministic version of GFS was going for that now-infamous SE QLD impact for a number of runs:




Edited by Ken Kato (20/02/2018 20:29)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1453635 - 20/02/2018 20:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Thanks Chris, there's been a few times I was on the verge of leaving though lol.

Yeah the map below for Gita shows the usefulness of ensembles in gauging what the spread of possible future tracks is like and uncertainty/confidence. The ensembles in this map were run way back on the 9th Feb just as Gita was named.

The black line is the observed track while the coloured lines are from a range of ensembles (including the ensemble versions of GFS, EC, UK, etc). You can see that while Gita's forecast track trended west for awhile, it's observed track still lay just inside the main spread of scenarios.

In contrast, the standard deterministic version of GFS was going for that now-infamous SE QLD impact for a number of runs:





I knew there was a reason I did some stats at Uni. smile

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#1454032 - 23/02/2018 11:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
Is this rain off the coast at the moment going to be cooling the water In hand with the lower temps associated with it going to be making it less favorable for the off chance anything does try develop moving forward or as i suspect being so close to the coast or on shore makes it pretty much insignificant

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#1454048 - 23/02/2018 12:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Wont cool the water enough.
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#1454089 - 23/02/2018 16:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2524
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
I was out off Cairns (not far) last week and the water temp sensor on my craft was showing 31c
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#1454108 - 23/02/2018 17:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 134
Loc: Rockhampton - Xtra Dry Dust La...
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#1454133 - 23/02/2018 20:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: gazza townsville]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1230
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: gazza townsville
Is this rain off the coast at the moment going to be cooling the water In hand with the lower temps associated with it going to be making it less favorable for the off chance anything does try develop moving forward or as i suspect being so close to the coast or on shore makes it pretty much insignificant


Water is still 29-30c at the moment at the reefs off Mission beach..while Townsville maybe a degree or so cooler its still plenty warm enough for cyclogenesis ...

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#1454783 - 26/02/2018 16:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25463
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
weak low over the Bowen area today, EC forecasted it. BOM have nothing in their outlook so not expecting much from it. Though EC did have a decent flow
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1454788 - 26/02/2018 16:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Gosh, Mick, has it come to this? Getting excited over an eddy spinning up. It has been a very quiet season, eh? I do remember 2005-2006 being a very quiet one too (bar a short-lived Kate), and then all of a sudden after mid- March we had STCs Larry; Wati; and Monica in relatively quick succession. I feel that the last half of March may be the beginning of something similar.
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