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#1455305 - 01/03/2018 17:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
What's everyone's thoughts on this piece. Interested from a critical thinking perspective of both the positive and negative points than anything.

Would be great if we could avoid talking about the media and all that stuff that comes with that. Flood and rain damage is more often than overlooked when Tropical Cyclones are spoken of. Keen to learn what people are thinking.

Thx

https://higginsstormchasing.com/major-record-flood-forecast-western-queensland/

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#1455308 - 01/03/2018 17:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Sillybanter Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 58
Loc: Toowoomba
Well we know from history this type of article is very polarising. I personally don't mind it as long as we take everything with a grain of salt. As the models suggest at this time this is the predicted rainfall amounts but as we all know exact locations and amounts are going to vary a lot from what it says now. Believe me when I say most people in Western Qld are praying that this one comes off and they will deal with whatever hardships it brings with it. Because thats what they have always done in the past and will continue to do in the future. However they will also not be surprised to see it drift across the gulf and head for W.A. They have had enough setbacks not to believe any forecast until they are emptying the rain gauges.

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#1455311 - 01/03/2018 18:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14286
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Just making people aware of the possible damage a little Cat 1 could do in the next couple of weeks re flooding and structure damage. If we cop one it could be pretty devastating as the ground is well saturated (actually over saturated) at the moment and it won't take much for a lot of trees to come down with the water logged soils. Run off will cause local flooding, nothing new there. Rail line infrastructure will be damaged, as will roads, power water. Again nothing new there but there are hundreds of new families who have moved to Townsville since the last good big blow we had (Yasi) and the lessons learnt then may need to be relearned by some new comers.
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#1455317 - 01/03/2018 19:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: SBT]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: SBT
Just making people aware of the possible damage a little Cat 1 could do in the next couple of weeks re flooding and structure damage. If we cop one it could be pretty devastating as the ground is well saturated (actually over saturated) at the moment and it won't take much for a lot of trees to come down with the water logged soils. Run off will cause local flooding, nothing new there. Rail line infrastructure will be damaged, as will roads, power water. Again nothing new there but there are hundreds of new families who have moved to Townsville since the last good big blow we had (Yasi) and the lessons learnt then may need to be relearned by some new comers.



Thanks for sharing. Was thinking something quite similar. There's been good a lot of storm activity of late across the state, and one must wonder how much water is travelling toward the natural water courses at the moment, how hydrated the soil (and its many layers is), and what this means in terms of the potentially impacted areas ability to channel water given the existing volume and unknown volume to come.

It's a nice system that's for sure.

Would be interesting to hear what Ken Kato has to say.

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#1455348 - 01/03/2018 21:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
mysteriousbrad Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1879
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
Access continuing with the same low at the end of the 10 day run tonight...

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#1455352 - 01/03/2018 21:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 120
CMC going for something coming in from the coral sea around similar time, instead of access having it from the GOC
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#1455368 - 01/03/2018 23:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Access has it from the CS now as well as a GoC storm...
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#1455420 - 02/03/2018 10:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3856
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yes, AccessG still has that interesting feature slowly progressing 'home' .

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#1455423 - 02/03/2018 11:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Only access and CMC atm.
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#1455426 - 02/03/2018 12:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3856
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thats something for a few runs at least.
Be interesting to watch what happens. C.S. is well warm enough.

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#1455429 - 02/03/2018 12:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1232
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Access throwing out a big system in the CS next Saturday. How reliable has this model been?
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#1455430 - 02/03/2018 12:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
So will the high progged on the BOM 4 day chart push the Coral Sea low away to the SE like the rest of them?

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#1455433 - 02/03/2018 13:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3856
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
All depends if there is a big ridge involved or a massive trough. I'd be a little happier if GFS be keen as well. It did well with Yasi, I think.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (02/03/2018 13:32)

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#1455451 - 02/03/2018 15:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Just had a look at GFS, how can they be so wildly different? Unless I am looking at the wrong chart GFS has no hint of a low during the same timeframe.

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#1455458 - 02/03/2018 16:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
All depends if there is a big ridge involved or a massive trough. I'd be a little happier if GFS be keen as well. It did well with Yasi, I think.


It did do well with Yasi however this year its been twrrible with its long range. Have to wait a few days and see if any others pick it up or if ACCESS drops it.
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#1455461 - 02/03/2018 16:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
Mangrovejack: Yeah I agree, waterlogged soil is always one of the things to consider when it comes to how easily certain types of trees topple over in strong winds.

1st image below is the forecast soil moisture change from the GFS over the next several days.

2nd image is the percentage of forecast members in the EC ensemble trying to spin up a TC between 7 and 9 days from now (pretty sure the "Tropical Storm" title uses the same categorisation of tropical system as the ECMWF themselves do
i.e. tropical storm = equivalent of Cat 1 TC in the Australian region):





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#1455462 - 02/03/2018 16:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Mangrovejack: Yeah I agree, waterlogged soil is always one of the things to consider when it comes to how easily certain types of trees topple over in strong winds.

1st image below is the forecast soil moisture change from the GFS over the next several days.

2nd image is the percentage of forecast members in the EC ensemble trying to spin up a TC between 7 and 9 days from now (pretty sure the "Tropical Storm" title uses the same categorisation of tropical system as the ECMWF themselves do
i.e. tropical storm = equivalent of Cat 1 TC in the Australian region):






Do you trust EC more then the other Models? Because i was reading somewhere, bloody wish I remembered the link, that overseas models are less reliable in Australia, due to there resolution over australia was lower then over there home ground as such. However your second pic has a resolution of 5km which is pretty awesome. So in your honest opinion which model do you believe is the most accurate more times than not.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455463 - 02/03/2018 16:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
So will the high progged on the BOM 4 day chart push the Coral Sea low away to the SE like the rest of them?


Considering the CS low on access is beyond 4 days. You cant use the 4 day charts to see which directioon it will shift.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455465 - 02/03/2018 16:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2268
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Null School /gfs/ncep have that low out west up in the GoC in 5-6 days time.

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#1455469 - 02/03/2018 16:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
Also consider steering flow through a bigger depth of the atmosphere, not just the surface if a strong system does end up developing somewhere.

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