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#1449487 - 20/01/2018 21:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
GFS is always pumped up on delusions of granduer

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#1449489 - 20/01/2018 22:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
WATL is the average of all the major models, if one is going for say 300mm and others are showing less then the forecast accumulated totals will be less.

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#1449490 - 20/01/2018 22:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
all models forecast any coral sea low to move east, access and ec have a GOC low moving west, GFS only one moving it east.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1449496 - 20/01/2018 22:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The GOC one looks the go. As for the NQ coast may just be some convergence associated with the onshore flow feeding into the GOC and low pressure in the CS definitely something brewing..

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#1449510 - 21/01/2018 07:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
BOM dont think anything substantial will happen until late jan early feb when the MJO is around.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449512 - 21/01/2018 07:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
ACCESS is throwing up an interesting scenario towards the end of January with two lows in the Coral Sea and two lows in the Indian Ocean.

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#1449517 - 21/01/2018 08:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
ACCESS is throwing up an interesting scenario towards the end of January with two lows in the Coral Sea and two lows in the Indian Ocean.


Yes, Chris, but the mid-level amplifying trough at the end of the run would have it being carted off fairly quickly to the SE:

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#1449538 - 21/01/2018 11:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
There is also a big blocking high to the south which should steer anything west.

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#1449555 - 21/01/2018 14:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea I just hope nothing breaks down that ridge. As that will take all the warm moist air with it to the graveyard.

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#1449570 - 21/01/2018 15:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
There is also a big blocking high to the south which should steer anything west.


Like IW said, above the blocking high is a large upper level trough, so anything embedded in it (unless it's extremely weak) will head SE. The trough itself can be steered west but only if the low level ridge under it gains more depth (look at 700mb-500mb for this).

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#1449576 - 21/01/2018 17:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
AccessG still has lows hanging around but only just. It also has a serious looking thing in WA in a weeks time, maybe that can somehow come across & give us some rain at least?


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/01/2018 17:12)

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#1449584 - 21/01/2018 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Would just like to remind everyone that 2018 is the 100th anniversiary of the year QLD got nailed by 2 cat 5's in a single year. Innisfail and Mackay. I don't think it had ever happened before and has never happened since. Just imagine the carnage goven the structural integrity of buildings back then.


Edited by Brett Guy (21/01/2018 18:05)

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#1449590 - 21/01/2018 19:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 76
Loc: Jingili Darwin
I was reading an interesting ABC article yesterday on the unnamed Mackay cyclone of 1918 and they said it was a cat 4.Albeit with a 3.5metre storm surge.Either way it did destroy the town

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#1449593 - 21/01/2018 19:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Brett Guy]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1231
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Would just like to remind everyone that 2018 is the 100th anniversiary of the year QLD got nailed by 2 cat 5's in a single year. Innisfail and Mackay. I don't think it had ever happened before and has never happened since. Just imagine the carnage goven the structural integrity of buildings back then.


Particularly devastating for Mission beach as it totally destroyed the new Tropical fruit plantations around Bingil Bay and the jetty and associated infractructure and actually took the "Mission" out of Mission Beach with the remaining aboriginal population transferred to Palm Island.....up to 7m storm surge evidence can still be seen as a pumice line in the foothills behind North Mision Beach...Innisfail was almost totally destroyed as well...reports of up to 100 people killed during that cyclone.....yep as Brett states there would not have been many buildings left standing...

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#1449594 - 21/01/2018 19:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: darwindix]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: darwindix
I was reading an interesting ABC article yesterday on the unnamed Mackay cyclone of 1918 and they said it was a cat 4.Albeit with a 3.5metre storm surge.Either way it did destroy the town


It's possible. I had always heard they were both fives but measurements back then would always be a little suspect.

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#1449596 - 21/01/2018 20:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Fascinating information Scott12. Thanks for sharing. Where did you find this info?

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#1449597 - 21/01/2018 20:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
interesting video below.Mackay cyclone of 1918

https://www.facebook.com/ABCRural/videos/10155043779216681/



Edited by Stormy3 (21/01/2018 20:31)
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1449622 - 22/01/2018 01:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Notice how people back then just accepted life's challenges and got on with things, picked up the pieces, moved on and rebuilt? Now we have people who somehow think screaming at the sky in a pussy hat will make a difference to their lives.

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#1449647 - 22/01/2018 10:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3983
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
It's known that both the 1918 cyclones were at least category 4, from the pressure readings in the respective towns. It's quite likely that one or both were more intense than that, but there is no way of knowing for sure.

(Looking at this the other way, had, for example, Marcia happened with the 1950 observation network and population spread, it would have been assessed as a category 3 at most, more likely a 2, as its peak intensity was not captured by any surface observations, nor was there any significant population near its landfall point).

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#1449656 - 22/01/2018 11:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Similarly Cyclone Larry should have been classified a Category 3 system owing to land obs, but widespread structural damage simply does not backup the land obs. It was much stronger, however weakening on landfall. From the post evidence from Marcia, not even close to a Category 5, I think the BOM screwed that one up majorly.

Back on topic. Nothing will happen in the CS until 2nd week Feb IMO. WA and Gulf to fire with everything pushing west.
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