NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 7 of 40 < 1 2 ... 5 6 7 8 9 ... 39 40 >
Topic Options
#1449657 - 22/01/2018 11:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Similarly Cyclone Larry should have been classified a Category 3 system owing to land obs, but widespread structural damage simply does not backup the land obs. It was much stronger, however weakening on landfall. From the post evidence from Marcia, not even close to a Category 5, I think the BOM screwed that one up majorly.

Back on topic. Nothing will happen in the CS until 2nd week Feb IMO. WA and Gulf to fire with everything pushing west.
_________________________
'Building a perpetual motion machine is easy - keeping the thing running is the hard bit"

Top
#1449660 - 22/01/2018 11:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
I wonder why everything is pushed west all the time in the Gulf and Western Australia?

Top
#1449661 - 22/01/2018 12:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Blis Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 22
Loc: Mt Sheridan

Top
#1449680 - 22/01/2018 14:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
*sigh* I dont think the BOM really knows whats gonna happen. One article it says no monsoon for townsville in next week then an article a day later says the opposite and that we will get monsoon rains. I guess its a case of wait and see.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

Top
#1449711 - 22/01/2018 18:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Gfs interested in a goc low going east around 29th.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

Top
#1449748 - 22/01/2018 21:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
if GFS is right and sends the GOC low east, it will be for little, GFS forms a southern coral sea trough or weak low and that stops and convergence on the SE side of the GOC low.
doesnt matter if GFS or EC is right on the current model runs, both screw NQ over in one way or another.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

Top
#1449751 - 22/01/2018 21:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Still who knows what will happen really. Everything is all over the place.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

Top
#1449753 - 22/01/2018 22:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
I have been closely watching the forecasts for Weipa. They change massively from forecast to forecast. Must be a very difficult forecasting environment.

Top
#1449754 - 22/01/2018 22:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Mick10
if GFS is right and sends the GOC low east, it will be for little, GFS forms a southern coral sea trough or weak low and that stops and convergence on the SE side of the GOC low.
doesnt matter if GFS or EC is right on the current model runs, both screw NQ over in one way or another.


On the bright side there is so much disagreement and chopping and changing that we could easily see a completely different scenario to anything the models have shown us yet

Top
#1449784 - 23/01/2018 10:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14286
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Its a model providing a simulation of what may occur, but probably won't. Almost 3 months into the season and nada on the east coast. Hopefully in Feb we will get a lovely little slow Cat 1 or 2 wandering down the coast to fill our dam in Townsville, but I'm not holding my breath.
_________________________
785mm Jan
799mm Feb
130 March
2019 Total 1714mm
2018 Total 822mm






Top
#1449787 - 23/01/2018 11:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Townsville is the most unluckiest place on the planet when it comes to rain
I think its the only place in the world that can have a monsoon trough sitting right over it and still not get rain
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1449789 - 23/01/2018 11:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: tsunami]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Townsville is the most unluckiest place on the planet when it comes to rain
I think its the only place in the world that can have a monsoon trough sitting right over it and still not get rain


Apart from Chillagoe. And most storms will split around us.


Edited by cold@28 (23/01/2018 11:46)

Top
#1449835 - 23/01/2018 18:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: tsunami]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Townsville is the most unluckiest place on the planet when it comes to rain
I think its the only place in the world that can have a monsoon trough sitting right over it and still not get rain

I lived in Townsville 1998 to 2000. It was quite wet👍
I acknowledge though it is the variability year to year decade to decade where Townsville has notable dry periods, including the now.

Top
#1449881 - 23/01/2018 21:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yeah we accept we have dry periods here, you know that after a few wet ones, a few dry ones will follow. but this current period (5 years) is dragging on way too long now. getting to be ridiculous.


CS will throw up a few lows in the next week to ten days, everything will move SE, now doubt about it now.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

Top
#1449885 - 23/01/2018 22:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Sometimes I think the model outputs show too much colour and not enough human mind interpretation.
I still like the old style charts for 4 day MSLP and features. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Seems quite complex with a lot of lows... Challenging for models and not surprising for volatility in predictions.

Agree the wettest time of year for NQ is not showing much. For further south, especially south of Fraser Island, statistical average wettest month, and actual wettest month year to year is a lot more vague

Top
#1449932 - 24/01/2018 10:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
first of those lows showing up on the willis island radar. models keep it weak for a day or two before strengthening as it moves eastwards.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

Top
#1449941 - 24/01/2018 11:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
The majority of lows move SE...its the norm...but we will get our rain. Maybe not above average as BOM forecast but it will happen.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

Top
#1449944 - 24/01/2018 11:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Mick10
first of those lows showing up on the willis island radar. models keep it weak for a day or two before strengthening as it moves eastwards.

EC has it combining with another weak low south of the Solomon Islands and then a large high over New Zealand moves east allowing it to head for the graveyard. By the looks of the structure of the low as it heads SE there must be high wind shear stopping it from developing too much, but New Zealand should get some wet windy weather from it.

Top
#1449948 - 24/01/2018 12:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Bah.

GFS seems to have a "conga line" of TC's or lows heading towards NZ at least in the foreseeable future.

I guess plenty of wet and windy weather for FNQ whilst this goes on.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

Top
#1449950 - 24/01/2018 12:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
3 of the models on weatherzone show a GoC low move east, 2 show it moving west, weatherzones synoptic shows it moving east too...looks like the models cant agree on anything. Must be so many variables lately that the models are virtually useless....more so then usual.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

Top
Page 7 of 40 < 1 2 ... 5 6 7 8 9 ... 39 40 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 37 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Caldoche, David Obeid, desblair, Morrisjub, rmj007, rummy21, StormQueen
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529242 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image