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#1454972 - 27/02/2018 19:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Nice moderate rainfall here now.

Just had a random rouge bolt of lightning knock out the power for few seconds. Had no thunder or anything for a little while then bang out of nowhere.


Edited by rainthisway (27/02/2018 19:42)
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1454991 - 27/02/2018 22:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Gosh, Mick, has it come to this? Getting excited over an eddy spinning up.

I'm getting very excited. Just watching that eddy on the latest EC and seems to slowly make its way inland through QLD and the NT up the Top End and pop off the West Australian coast to give us our ??? 5th or 6th system of the year over here in Broome. Cheers guys. Pack her up, load her with moisture and send her over to the West. smile cheers
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18022700&fh=192


When I go to tropical tidbits to check our latest forecast for weather inactivity, I always use this particular regional view - not because it really shows the Coral Sea and QLD well, but mostly so I can't see how much action WA is getting!


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#1454996 - 27/02/2018 22:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Haha to funny Dan. I think QLD will be getting something before the season is out.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1455010 - 28/02/2018 07:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25304
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
dont really care where the low goes after this, right now its bring us our best rainfall event in 4 years and has just thrown 120mm into dwindling water supplies. The city council turns off the water pumps from the Burdekin dam today, which has been costing us $37,000 a day. So great news.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1455021 - 28/02/2018 08:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mick10
dont really care where the low goes after this, right now its bring us our best rainfall event in 4 years and has just thrown 120mm into dwindling water supplies. The city council turns off the water pumps from the Burdekin dam today, which has been costing us $37,000 a day. So great news.


That is awesome, we can call it Townsville again (instead of Brownsville). You guys have waited long enough for this type of event.

You can send a bit down our way next time smile

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#1455037 - 28/02/2018 10:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25304
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:48 am Wednesday, 28 February 2018.
Low pressure system to produce heavy rain across north Queensland.

Weather Situation: A surface low near Townsville is forecast to deepen during today and Thursday in response to a slow-moving upper trough and associated low. The surface and upper low are forecast to shift west across the Herbert and Lower Burdekin today, and into the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders during Thursday. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to accompany the low with its westward movement across north Queensland.
Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is forecast across coastal and inland parts of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin today and across eastern parts of the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders overnight and into Thursday.
6 hour rainfall totals of 100mm to 180mm are possible, with isolated falls up to 220mm possible.
Widespread 24 hour rainfall totals between 150mm to 250mm are likely, with isolated falls up to 350mm possible.
Locations which may be affected include Charters Towers, Townsville, Palm Island, Ingham, Ayr, Mingela, Giru, Alva Beach, Einasleigh, Lyndhurst Station, Rollingstone and Gregory Springs.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Wednesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1455041 - 28/02/2018 10:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 307
Loc: Golden Beach
Frame that one and put it on the wall Mick!

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#1455061 - 28/02/2018 10:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Tgis k8nd of event was bound to happen eventually. Plus a few models show some lows. So next week or so maybe interesting.i believe the march outlook is gonna get thrown str8 out the window.
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#1455063 - 28/02/2018 10:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2374
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Does it head off north west or , which direction?
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#1455074 - 28/02/2018 12:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Forecast to move west
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455129 - 28/02/2018 17:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Island viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/04/2010
Posts: 247
Loc: Eimeo Qld 4740
Anybody notice the lows here?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=148.60,-18.82,2354
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Eimeo Point, Mackay, Qld

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#1455131 - 28/02/2018 17:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5416
Yep already been discussed above. The low currently near Townsville extends right up into the upper levels.

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#1455134 - 28/02/2018 17:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5416
12z EC's suggestion was going for a landphoon-like scenario for the current low near Townsville by the time it drifts across northwest QLD this weekend with the equivalent of Cat 1 winds wrapping halfway around the small but vigorous system:



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#1455142 - 28/02/2018 18:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Island viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/04/2010
Posts: 247
Loc: Eimeo Qld 4740
95P Invest on Navy/NRL TC Pages
_________________________
Eimeo Point, Mackay, Qld

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#1455192 - 28/02/2018 21:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Island viewer]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Island viewer
95P Invest on Navy/NRL TC Pages


Saw that. Very interesting indeed. Wonder what the likelihood would be of historical Lightning data being around. The systems off Cairns and the QLD coast / inland over the past couple of weeks have been insane. Would be interested to learn where this stacks up in terms of storm activity over say the past 30 to 40 years. I doubt it's available, however other data could indicate the prevalence of storm activity over the period as well.

Any genuine thoughts would be appreciated...

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#1455215 - 01/03/2018 07:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
whynot Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/10/2001
Posts: 540
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Wonder what the likelihood would be of historical Lightning data being around.


In a previous role, I had access to the lightning strike archive back to 1999. The problem comparing historical data with today's data is that owners of the lightning tracker network have been continually improving the network (accuracy of the strike and detection rates). If one could compare two theoretical "identical" storms, say 1999 verses 2018, the raw data from the 2018 thunderstorm would show significantly "more" lightning; simply because the 2018 lightning tracker network has better detection rates. The other non-trivial issue when analysing lightning data is processing the millions and millions of records. It is usually beyond desktop computers and one needs access to grunty servers or cloud infrastructure.

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#1455237 - 01/03/2018 10:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Access is showing a interesting scenario at end of 10 day run...if that eventuates..
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455276 - 01/03/2018 14:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Jezza Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 18/03/2015
Posts: 12
Loc: Kingston Beach, TAS
[img]http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=240&focus=mh[/img]

10 day outlook on GFS looking pretty promising for some cyclonic activity in FNQ. Will be interesting to see if, how and where it unfolds!

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#1455279 - 01/03/2018 14:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Jezza thats BOMs access model. Deffo something to watch.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455303 - 01/03/2018 16:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: whynot]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: whynot
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Wonder what the likelihood would be of historical Lightning data being around.


In a previous role, I had access to the lightning strike archive back to 1999. The problem comparing historical data with today's data is that owners of the lightning tracker network have been continually improving the network (accuracy of the strike and detection rates). If one could compare two theoretical "identical" storms, say 1999 verses 2018, the raw data from the 2018 thunderstorm would show significantly "more" lightning; simply because the 2018 lightning tracker network has better detection rates. The other non-trivial issue when analysing lightning data is processing the millions and millions of records. It is usually beyond desktop computers and one needs access to grunty servers or cloud infrastructure.



Thanks for the reply. I work with data on a full-time basis and I must admit, I thought it would be a long shot. Have seen some figures of late and I think i've seen numbers of 100K+ strikes in a single night. Could be wrong, but that's nuts hey.

Thanks for the info. Anything which assists to develop my knowledge and understanding is always appreciated.

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