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#1455523 - 03/03/2018 12:25 SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5109
The end date (6th March) of this thread is a bit open-ended since the rainfall in our region will probably only gradually taper off into lingering showers rather than ending abruptly.
At this stage, the main peak in the more widespread rainfall looks like being southern parts of SE QLD as well as NE NSW (MNC, Northern Rivers, etc) around Monday with moderate to perhaps locally heavy falls.

Here's my take on the coming days based on data at time of writing (timings are subject to change of course):

Today (Saturday) - humid with a mix of sun and clouds then later today and tonight over the southern and central Downs, some showers & thunderstorms developing, some of which might try to creep into inland SE QLD (but even if any reach the coast, most will probably just be hit & miss remnants overnight).

Sunday - very muggy then a number places in our region may see showers and storms developing as an approaching midlevel shortwave trough approaches with the moisture/instability probably being enough to overcome any earlier cloud cover. A few places could also get localised heavier falls.
Interestingly, the 18z ACCESS-C run doesn't have much happening until at least mid afternoon (but beyond that is unknown since it's beyond its maximum forecast lead time).

Monday - showers and periods of rain; a few places could get thunder... and in NE NSW and southeastern parts of SE QLD, heavy falls with pockets of flash flooding are a chance as another midlevel shortwave approaches.
At the moment, the positioning of the shortwave looks like favouring southern parts of our region re the higher rainfall amounts although if it were to track a bit further north than currently expected, the better rainfall amounts may spread further north as well.
Most of the usual ingredients for reasonable rainfall amounts are there e.g. moist profiles with some backing winds with height, upslide, onshore flow and fairly high precipitable water values, and some instability.
BUT rainfall amounts and timings aren't quite set in stone just yet due to the possibility of a local deepening of the offshore trough or a weak small low forming off the NE NSW coast later in the day (EC's scenario) - if that happens and the southerly flow it flicks up the coast on its rear flank interrupts the more moist onshore flow, it may reduce rainfall amounts a little but currently doesn't look strong enough to have a huge effect.

Tuesday - cooler stronger SSE flow starts kicking in later in the day and could start getting quite windy along the coast, islands & more exposed ground by night time. Looks like showers hanging around, more numerous in the southeastern coastal & hinterlands areas where they could tend to some rain at times for a period.

Wednesday & Thursday - windy along the coast, islands & more exposed ground with some showers around

Some graphics below (as always with the graph for Brisbane, actual rainfall amounts can sometimes be much higher or lower than even the highest and lowest scenarios on the graph depending on convection, etc):





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#1455535 - 03/03/2018 16:07 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1072
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Could well be one of those systems where the falls surprise on the up side.

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#1455536 - 03/03/2018 16:12 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 890
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I know it's a day early, but storms are gathering to our SW. Texas area southwestward to south of Goondiwindi with some good action right now. Do you think they have the push to make it through SE QLD? Or even just this area?
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1455543 - 03/03/2018 18:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
Access C has most of the storm activity lingering around the Brisbane region and the North Western part of the scenic rim region and west of the Sunshine Coast for sunday arvo.

Remember Access C nailed the forecast for last Monday's storm.

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#1455552 - 03/03/2018 21:06 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5109
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
I know it's a day early, but storms are gathering to our SW. Texas area southwestward to south of Goondiwindi with some good action right now. Do you think they have the push to make it through SE QLD? Or even just this area?

Various models including ACCESS-C were suggesting much of it would fizzle out by the time it got closer to coastal SE QLD which is what appears to be happening judging by current radar. The line is clearly gusting out at the moment as the outflow spreads out too far ahead of it.

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#1455554 - 03/03/2018 21:37 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 402
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Ants were hyperactive today.

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#1455556 - 03/03/2018 21:52 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 402
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Interesting bigger picture sat water vapour images at present.

https://weather.us/satellite/1423-e-268-s/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play2

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#1455560 - 03/03/2018 22:27 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3289
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Nice sat pic, just shows why nothing happening in C.S. next few days as well.

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#1455577 - 04/03/2018 09:12 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 890
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Very heavy rain and minor flooding west of here near Karara/Thanes Creek. It looked promising, but weakened and split apart once it approached us. We recorded 6mm last night and early this morning. This event is looking less promising for us now. Just bring on the cold weather...
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1455578 - 04/03/2018 09:19 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1172
Loc: Toowoomba
Yep, Michael, places to the west and NW of Warwick did well. Just stick with the Bureau forecasts and forget the models and see what happens.
Cheers

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#1455581 - 04/03/2018 09:39 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5109
Models form the main basis of Bureau's forecasts before manual input of course so it'll often be very similar to raw model output anyway.

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#1455583 - 04/03/2018 09:44 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1172
Loc: Toowoomba
Understand Ken, but in reading all the QLD notes & forecasts I cannot see any reason for thinking negatively, but also realize the total weirdness of the Warwick area.

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#1455600 - 04/03/2018 12:28 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 354
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
I'm heading down to Mt Gravatt this afternoon so hope to catch some action whilst I'm down there.

Something always seems to pass through South Brisbane when storms are about, so I'm pretty hopeful grin
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1455601 - 04/03/2018 12:33 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1172
Loc: Toowoomba
Now that I am back home I can say I meant the weather in Warwick as being weird not the good citizens.

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#1455602 - 04/03/2018 12:46 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
It seems "at this stage" SE QLD should dodge that high cloud cover the the Mid North Coast of NSW is enduring at the moment. Seems to be slipping south of the border when you play the loop. Be interesting to see what storm development will be like this afternoon.

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#1455603 - 04/03/2018 12:46 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 354
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
I'd like to think we all understood your comment was in the context of weather Pete poke
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1455604 - 04/03/2018 12:47 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1172
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks.

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#1455613 - 04/03/2018 13:46 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1072
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Reckon you are right no matter what pete. Cause Iím sure there are a few weirdos out Warwick way. Letís hope we get a. Nice wet storm later today.

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#1455620 - 04/03/2018 14:15 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5109
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Understand Ken, but in reading all the QLD notes & forecasts I cannot see any reason for thinking negatively, but also realize the total weirdness of the Warwick area.

Indeed, I'm all too familiar with the perceived dome effect in my local area too although areas like Warwick clearly need the rainfall a lot more than here.

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#1455621 - 04/03/2018 14:16 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5109
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Now that I am back home I can say I meant the weather in Warwick as being weird not the good citizens.

lol I'm sure everyone knew what you meant.

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