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#1455694 - 04/03/2018 19:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3429
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Just looked at GFS Tropical Tidbits, 240hrs onwards, I know its a very, very long bow, but awesome to look at.
The word armageddon would be a fitting description. Wouldnt bother us but still, Dont want it!
Solid rain in Gatton for over an hour.
Nice.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (04/03/2018 20:05)

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#1455696 - 04/03/2018 20:04 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Access C nailed the exact location and rainfall rates for tonight so far.
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#1455698 - 04/03/2018 20:15 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1158
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
And again, surrounded by rain but nothing here. We are the southwest donut hole LOL.
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Jimbour rain: 2018-172, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 12.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1455700 - 04/03/2018 20:40 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1108
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Access c been on it’s A game of late. Another 50mm by Wednesday will be superb.

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#1455715 - 04/03/2018 21:57 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1531
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Access C nailed the exact location and rainfall rates for tonight so far.



The only Model im looking at these days. Love the high res

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#1455718 - 04/03/2018 22:07 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Phantom Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2009
Posts: 204
Loc: Buckendoon, NSW. 2472
0.6mm rainfall here today a bit of distant thunder and overcast since about 4pm but thats it!!

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#1455720 - 04/03/2018 22:27 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1560
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Both storms near sunny coast today weakened or went around Buderim, only to for again once it passed buderim. Directly to the south and north are gettin heavy rain, and hardly anything here like usual. Buderim is like a real doughnut hole.
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#1455721 - 04/03/2018 22:31 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1108
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I rekn there would’ve been solid falls somewhere between here and dayboro. Anyone in that area?

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#1455722 - 04/03/2018 22:48 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
8.4mm this afternoon/evening in RD.

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#1455724 - 04/03/2018 23:07 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3429
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
12mm this arvo/tonight.

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#1455732 - 05/03/2018 08:14 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1839
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all, Nice 45 mm overnight at my place .Bungil creek in Roma is at 5.4 mts minor flood level .
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#1455733 - 05/03/2018 08:23 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3429
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Morning all, 13mm total & a WATL downgrade.
Wouldnt be the first time, still expecting plenty.

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#1455734 - 05/03/2018 08:34 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
The main peak in the showers/patchy rain areas here probably won't occur until late today, overnight or early tomorrow due to that uncertainty mentioned in the original post coming into play i.e. the localised deepening of the trough just offshore deflecting the winds over land to a bit more of a southerly component.

Once that trough/convergence zone flattens out a bit later today, it should allow the flow to become more onshore and moist.

A number of models have also lowered their forecast rainfall totals to be more in line with the models that had the more conservative totals (as Mad Elf mentioned re the WATL downgrade).... but should still be wet weather from time to time with that main peak late today or early tomorrow.

Here's the latest suggestions re accumulating rainfall from some of the models for Brisbane:



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#1455735 - 05/03/2018 08:46 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 73
Loc: noosaville
Nice downpour here last night just after 10pm. Ended up with 64.7mm.

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#1455736 - 05/03/2018 08:50 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4681
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 10.6mm.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep30.2(32)YTD717.6(833.8),

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#1455739 - 05/03/2018 08:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1209
Loc: Toowoomba
I assume that trough off the coast Ken mentioned was the cause of that horrid South to SWer's that howled all day. It always come back even this time of year. Only a few mls from that impressive looking storm yesterday. Just looked at the Warwick Gliding club Webcam. Almost totally clear sky.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (05/03/2018 09:01)

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#1455756 - 05/03/2018 12:21 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4681
Loc: Wynnum
GFS talking again about one of their many TC's they seem to forecast each TC season, this time centred around the 18th. Yesterday afternoon, it was just brushing Fraser Is. 3 hours later it was crossing the coast instead near Cardwell. This morning it is further off Fraser Is on its way to NZ. Yawn.....
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep30.2(32)YTD717.6(833.8),

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#1455759 - 05/03/2018 13:16 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3429
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Noticed CMC & AccessG got one poking around off the coast a bit earlier on the 14th. Thats 3 models kind of lining up. Late season burst with attitude perhaps?

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#1455760 - 05/03/2018 13:26 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 370
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
I did end up arriving home just in time Big T, ended up going through it all at the peak I'd say.

You're right about Albany Creek, absolutely pelting down as I drove through there, had to slow to 40.

At home we got 26mm and a record high rain rate of 248mm/h in what was a truly torrential downpour.

We're glad the worst of it was short lived as any prolonged rain like that would have surely introduced a flood risk for us here.
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Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1455786 - 05/03/2018 15:32 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 650
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Did anyone else expect there to be a bit more on radar than what there is now? BoM were going for 20-50mm for today, as were a number of other models.

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