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#1455788 - 05/03/2018 15:44 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 266
Loc: Golden Beach
Yes I was just thinking the same thing. I thought there was a trough moving from the east onshore. Of course it will be hosing down in half an hour.

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#1455790 - 05/03/2018 15:49 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: wet sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5111
Originally Posted By: wet sky
Did anyone else expect there to be a bit more on radar than what there is now? BoM were going for 20-50mm for today, as were a number of other models.


Not sure if you saw the post this morning but I've highlighted the relevant bits in bold (I haven't been checking every run of every model but I do remember yesterday seeing the onset not being until late today or early tomorrow):

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The main peak in the showers/patchy rain areas here probably won't occur until late today, overnight or early tomorrow due to that uncertainty mentioned in the original post coming into play i.e. the localised deepening of the trough just offshore deflecting the winds over land to a bit more of a southerly component.

Once that trough/convergence zone flattens out a bit later today, it should allow the flow to become more onshore and moist.

A number of models have also lowered their forecast rainfall totals to be more in line with the models that had the more conservative totals (as Mad Elf mentioned re the WATL downgrade).... but should still be wet weather from time to time with that main peak late today or early tomorrow.

Here's the latest suggestions re accumulating rainfall from some of the models for Brisbane:



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#1455794 - 05/03/2018 15:57 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 650
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: wet sky
Did anyone else expect there to be a bit more on radar than what there is now? BoM were going for 20-50mm for today, as were a number of other models.


Not sure if you saw the post this morning but I've highlighted the relevant bits in bold (I haven't been checking every run of every model but I do remember yesterday seeing the onset not being until late today or early tomorrow):

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The main peak in the showers/patchy rain areas here probably won't occur until late today, overnight or early tomorrow due to that uncertainty mentioned in the original post coming into play i.e. the localised deepening of the trough just offshore deflecting the winds over land to a bit more of a southerly component.

Once that trough/convergence zone flattens out a bit later today, it should allow the flow to become more onshore and moist.

A number of models have also lowered their forecast rainfall totals to be more in line with the models that had the more conservative totals (as Mad Elf mentioned re the WATL downgrade).... but should still be wet weather from time to time with that main peak late today or early tomorrow.

Here's the latest suggestions re accumulating rainfall from some of the models for Brisbane:




Thanks Ken. Didn't check the forum this morning so missed that post.

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#1455796 - 05/03/2018 16:14 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5111
No worries, it may be the case that many areas actually end up getting more rainfall tomorrow rather than today if the flow does become more onshore.

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#1455800 - 05/03/2018 16:44 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 266
Loc: Golden Beach
Ok thanks Ken. I am off to mow the lawn and wait for the rain. Cheers

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#1455801 - 05/03/2018 16:47 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Yes I was just thinking the same thing. I thought there was a trough moving from the east onshore. Of course it will be hosing down in half an hour.


I wasn't aware of a offshore trough?? I thought our rain was coming from inland from that low in NW Qld ?

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#1455802 - 05/03/2018 16:50 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
Anyways it doesn't look like much in the way of storm activity although a bit of a rumble near warwick but nothing to throw a party about

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#1455807 - 05/03/2018 17:31 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 727
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Definitely not party material around here either.It's been hot ,oppressively muggy and nothing but a spit and some dribble with storms off the forecast and a long stretch of boring weather to look forward to.B ummer!

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#1455808 - 05/03/2018 17:33 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 80
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Yes Gleno, a few rumbles around Warwick ; 21mm today plus 8 odd a couple of days ago. I think Allora did better today. BOM forecast very encouraging for tomorrow. Hope it develops as general rain rather than isolated stuff.

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#1455809 - 05/03/2018 17:41 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: signalman]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: signalman
Yes Gleno, a few rumbles around Warwick ; 21mm today plus 8 odd a couple of days ago. I think Allora did better today. BOM forecast very encouraging for tomorrow. Hope it develops as general rain rather than isolated stuff.


I know Ken stated the rain would be more overnight tonight and into tomorrow, but I could of sworn Brisbane's forecast was "rain at times" for Monday? Unless the charts did a massive swing. Still very humid and no doubt will be a warm night under the cloud cover.

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#1455819 - 05/03/2018 18:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 42
Loc: Allora
We got 49mm here at Mt Marshall just 3 mins drive south of Allora this arvo. I think Allora got the bulk. We also had 20mm on Sat so doing well here and looking forward to those who have missed out to get good and well deserved rain scores in the coming 48 hours.

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#1455820 - 05/03/2018 18:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3290
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Massive rain on Warrego near Helidon atm.
Son just called lots water on road but traffic still getting through.
Marburg colour definitely doesnt match the rain rate.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (05/03/2018 18:19)

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#1455824 - 05/03/2018 18:36 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 354
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Now you're talking Mad Elf, here's hoping it makes it to the coast!
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1455827 - 05/03/2018 18:49 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
A little bit of lightning activity shown on the weatherzone tracker near Harrisville. Something to keep a eye on. STW was out for Toowoomba, unsure if that still applies

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#1455830 - 05/03/2018 19:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3290
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looks like we gona get stuff all from this lot unless another line builds later or tomorrow, maybe.

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#1455834 - 05/03/2018 19:39 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 399
Loc: Salisbury
Woke this morning to find Salisbury had 11.9mm fall at some stage overnight, and we must have had a shower of rain during today as the gauge is up another 0.8mm...brings the total from 4 seperate lots of rainfalls since Saturday morning to 14.2mm

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#1455836 - 05/03/2018 19:51 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 727
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
We've had stuff all around here but hopefully later tonight might bring somethin decent.AccessR certainly thinks so with 50 mls or so projected for this area and inland round the border ranges.

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#1455837 - 05/03/2018 20:11 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 891
Loc: Warwick, QLD
In Brisbane for a couple of days, looks like I need to leave town for Warwick to get any rain, lol. Nice to see rain in the area. I wonder how the west end of Warwick did? Any ideas Pete, Mark or Signalman?


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (05/03/2018 20:13)
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1455838 - 05/03/2018 20:26 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5111
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I know Ken stated the rain would be more overnight tonight and into tomorrow, but I could of sworn Brisbane's forecast was "rain at times" for Monday? Unless the charts did a massive swing. Still very humid and no doubt will be a warm night under the cloud cover.

It was. The initial 4:50am issue this morning included very high chance of showers tending to rain at times. This was updated at 11:57am to very high chance of showers.

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#1455841 - 05/03/2018 20:52 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I know Ken stated the rain would be more overnight tonight and into tomorrow, but I could of sworn Brisbane's forecast was "rain at times" for Monday? Unless the charts did a massive swing. Still very humid and no doubt will be a warm night under the cloud cover.

It was. The initial 4:50am issue this morning included very high chance of showers tending to rain at times. This was updated at 11:57am to very high chance of showers.


Thanks Ken smile

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