The end date (6th March) of this thread is a bit open-ended since the rainfall in our region will probably only gradually taper off into lingering showers rather than ending abruptly.
At this stage, the main peak in the more widespread rainfall looks like being southern parts of SE QLD as well as NE NSW (MNC, Northern Rivers, etc) around Monday with moderate to perhaps locally heavy falls.

Here's my take on the coming days based on data at time of writing (timings are subject to change of course):

Today (Saturday) - humid with a mix of sun and clouds then later today and tonight over the southern and central Downs, some showers & thunderstorms developing, some of which might try to creep into inland SE QLD (but even if any reach the coast, most will probably just be hit & miss remnants overnight).

Sunday - very muggy then a number places in our region may see showers and storms developing as an approaching midlevel shortwave trough approaches with the moisture/instability probably being enough to overcome any earlier cloud cover. A few places could also get localised heavier falls.
Interestingly, the 18z ACCESS-C run doesn't have much happening until at least mid afternoon (but beyond that is unknown since it's beyond its maximum forecast lead time).

Monday - showers and periods of rain; a few places could get thunder... and in NE NSW and southeastern parts of SE QLD, heavy falls with pockets of flash flooding are a chance as another midlevel shortwave approaches.
At the moment, the positioning of the shortwave looks like favouring southern parts of our region re the higher rainfall amounts although if it were to track a bit further north than currently expected, the better rainfall amounts may spread further north as well.
Most of the usual ingredients for reasonable rainfall amounts are there e.g. moist profiles with some backing winds with height, upslide, onshore flow and fairly high precipitable water values, and some instability.
BUT rainfall amounts and timings aren't quite set in stone just yet due to the possibility of a local deepening of the offshore trough or a weak small low forming off the NE NSW coast later in the day (EC's scenario) - if that happens and the southerly flow it flicks up the coast on its rear flank interrupts the more moist onshore flow, it may reduce rainfall amounts a little but currently doesn't look strong enough to have a huge effect.

Tuesday - cooler stronger SSE flow starts kicking in later in the day and could start getting quite windy along the coast, islands & more exposed ground by night time. Looks like showers hanging around, more numerous in the southeastern coastal & hinterlands areas where they could tend to some rain at times for a period.

Wednesday & Thursday - windy along the coast, islands & more exposed ground with some showers around

Some graphics below (as always with the graph for Brisbane, actual rainfall amounts can sometimes be much higher or lower than even the highest and lowest scenarios on the graph depending on convection, etc):

Could well be one of those systems where the falls surprise on the up side.

I know it's a day early, but storms are gathering to our SW. Texas area southwestward to south of Goondiwindi with some good action right now. Do you think they have the push to make it through SE QLD? Or even just this area?

Access C has most of the storm activity lingering around the Brisbane region and the North Western part of the scenic rim region and west of the Sunshine Coast for sunday arvo.

Remember Access C nailed the forecast for last Monday's storm.

Various models including ACCESS-C were suggesting much of it would fizzle out by the time it got closer to coastal SE QLD which is what appears to be happening judging by current radar. The line is clearly gusting out at the moment as the outflow spreads out too far ahead of it.

Ants were hyperactive today.

Interesting bigger picture sat water vapour images at present.

https://weather.us/satellite/1423-e-268-s/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play2

Nice sat pic, just shows why nothing happening in C.S. next few days as well.

Very heavy rain and minor flooding west of here near Karara/Thanes Creek. It looked promising, but weakened and split apart once it approached us. We recorded 6mm last night and early this morning. This event is looking less promising for us now. Just bring on the cold weather...

Yep, Michael, places to the west and NW of Warwick did well. Just stick with the Bureau forecasts and forget the models and see what happens.
Cheers

Models form the main basis of Bureau's forecasts before manual input of course so it'll often be very similar to raw model output anyway.

Understand Ken, but in reading all the QLD notes & forecasts I cannot see any reason for thinking negatively, but also realize the total weirdness of the Warwick area.

I'm heading down to Mt Gravatt this afternoon so hope to catch some action whilst I'm down there.

Something always seems to pass through South Brisbane when storms are about, so I'm pretty hopeful

Now that I am back home I can say I meant the weather in Warwick as being weird not the good citizens.

It seems "at this stage" SE QLD should dodge that high cloud cover the the Mid North Coast of NSW is enduring at the moment. Seems to be slipping south of the border when you play the loop. Be interesting to see what storm development will be like this afternoon.

I'd like to think we all understood your comment was in the context of weather Pete

Thanks.

Reckon you are right no matter what pete. Cause I’m sure there are a few weirdos out Warwick way. Let’s hope we get a. Nice wet storm later today.

Indeed, I'm all too familiar with the perceived dome effect in my local area too although areas like Warwick clearly need the rainfall a lot more than here.

lol I'm sure everyone knew what you meant.

Zits popping up, here we go.
Dark lumpy clouds gathering.

A Bit of buildup on the GC hinterland, certainly nothing compared to last Monday at this stage. Looks like west of Toowoomba where the action could be

Steering is probably N to NW slow shear but, lots of alto cumulus around.

Looks like activity to your north dropping a bit south for you Pete. I knew what you meant too by the way, lol.
Cheers.

Mixing up nicely now , has to chuck it down later.

TS developed on top of us at Wynnum Nth 20 minutes ago. It lasted for 2 thunderclaps and gave us 8.0mm. It has now moved to the NE into the BBay.

So weird outside, surrounded by dark clouds on all sides while nice and sunny in the middle. High clouds moving in southerly direction while low cloud is seriously swirling around our property in a big circular motion in the opposite direction slowly filling in our sunlight.

I think the cell skirting me here now with big chunky drops will turn ne also, although radar says it’s coming right at me , it’s gona turn away and tease hell outta me.

Looking nice on the latest Airservices/Bureau camera at Toowoomba Airport:

Warning siren just sounded on ABC. Heavy rain nth Brisbane. 75mm in 30 minutes. Holy smokes!

Think I’ve had the luck today, still going here , would had to have had 20mm by now I’m guessing , will check when it’s done. Cirrus , surely you stayed home to be under this?

Just a bit light rain as well as a few rumbles of thunder to the north. A bit of lightning around but appears to be all CC.

Not much going on here at Salisbury, had 0.7mm fall early on Saturday morning and 0.8mm fall here about half an hour ago after hearing one rumble of thunder.

Storms are stubborn and slow moving. Must not be much shear around

Some big falls showing up on the alert stations since 0900.Most would have fallen over the last two hours.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/qld_metro.shtml

88mm at Kobble Creek
66mm at Cedar Creek

No doubt the reason the dangerous storm label on the warning issued at 6:00pm

51mm here in about 50min. Rain rate peaked at 146mm/hr

37mm here , very nice storm , steady rain , never any rain rates that were over the top , bit of occasional lightning, perfect.

99mm in an hour at Mt Mee in the latest warning.

Think later tonight/tomorrow was looking better for precip. Asides places that have already recieved good amounts.

Nothing but heat , mid level cloud and crud down here for today probably showery tomorrow and that's it

Just looked at GFS Tropical Tidbits, 240hrs onwards, I know its a very, very long bow, but awesome to look at.
The word armageddon would be a fitting description. Wouldnt bother us but still, Dont want it!
Solid rain in Gatton for over an hour.
Nice.

Access C nailed the exact location and rainfall rates for tonight so far.

And again, surrounded by rain but nothing here. We are the southwest donut hole LOL.

Access c been on it’s A game of late. Another 50mm by Wednesday will be superb.

The only Model im looking at these days. Love the high res

0.6mm rainfall here today a bit of distant thunder and overcast since about 4pm but thats it!!

Both storms near sunny coast today weakened or went around Buderim, only to for again once it passed buderim. Directly to the south and north are gettin heavy rain, and hardly anything here like usual. Buderim is like a real doughnut hole.

I rekn there would’ve been solid falls somewhere between here and dayboro. Anyone in that area?

8.4mm this afternoon/evening in RD.

12mm this arvo/tonight.

Hi all, Nice 45 mm overnight at my place .Bungil creek in Roma is at 5.4 mts minor flood level .

Morning all, 13mm total & a WATL downgrade.
Wouldnt be the first time, still expecting plenty.

The main peak in the showers/patchy rain areas here probably won't occur until late today, overnight or early tomorrow due to that uncertainty mentioned in the original post coming into play i.e. the localised deepening of the trough just offshore deflecting the winds over land to a bit more of a southerly component.

Once that trough/convergence zone flattens out a bit later today, it should allow the flow to become more onshore and moist.

A number of models have also lowered their forecast rainfall totals to be more in line with the models that had the more conservative totals (as Mad Elf mentioned re the WATL downgrade).... but should still be wet weather from time to time with that main peak late today or early tomorrow.

Here's the latest suggestions re accumulating rainfall from some of the models for Brisbane:

Nice downpour here last night just after 10pm. Ended up with 64.7mm.

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 10.6mm.

I assume that trough off the coast Ken mentioned was the cause of that horrid South to SWer's that howled all day. It always come back even this time of year. Only a few mls from that impressive looking storm yesterday. Just looked at the Warwick Gliding club Webcam. Almost totally clear sky.

GFS talking again about one of their many TC's they seem to forecast each TC season, this time centred around the 18th. Yesterday afternoon, it was just brushing Fraser Is. 3 hours later it was crossing the coast instead near Cardwell. This morning it is further off Fraser Is on its way to NZ. Yawn.....

Noticed CMC & AccessG got one poking around off the coast a bit earlier on the 14th. Thats 3 models kind of lining up. Late season burst with attitude perhaps?

I did end up arriving home just in time Big T, ended up going through it all at the peak I'd say.

You're right about Albany Creek, absolutely pelting down as I drove through there, had to slow to 40.

At home we got 26mm and a record high rain rate of 248mm/h in what was a truly torrential downpour.

We're glad the worst of it was short lived as any prolonged rain like that would have surely introduced a flood risk for us here.

Did anyone else expect there to be a bit more on radar than what there is now? BoM were going for 20-50mm for today, as were a number of other models.

Yes I was just thinking the same thing. I thought there was a trough moving from the east onshore. Of course it will be hosing down in half an hour.

Not sure if you saw the post this morning but I've highlighted the relevant bits in bold (I haven't been checking every run of every model but I do remember yesterday seeing the onset not being until late today or early tomorrow):

Thanks Ken. Didn't check the forum this morning so missed that post.

No worries, it may be the case that many areas actually end up getting more rainfall tomorrow rather than today if the flow does become more onshore.

Ok thanks Ken. I am off to mow the lawn and wait for the rain. Cheers

I wasn't aware of a offshore trough?? I thought our rain was coming from inland from that low in NW Qld ?

Anyways it doesn't look like much in the way of storm activity although a bit of a rumble near warwick but nothing to throw a party about

Definitely not party material around here either.It's been hot ,oppressively muggy and nothing but a spit and some dribble with storms off the forecast and a long stretch of boring weather to look forward to.B ummer!

Yes Gleno, a few rumbles around Warwick ; 21mm today plus 8 odd a couple of days ago. I think Allora did better today. BOM forecast very encouraging for tomorrow. Hope it develops as general rain rather than isolated stuff.

I know Ken stated the rain would be more overnight tonight and into tomorrow, but I could of sworn Brisbane's forecast was "rain at times" for Monday? Unless the charts did a massive swing. Still very humid and no doubt will be a warm night under the cloud cover.

We got 49mm here at Mt Marshall just 3 mins drive south of Allora this arvo. I think Allora got the bulk. We also had 20mm on Sat so doing well here and looking forward to those who have missed out to get good and well deserved rain scores in the coming 48 hours.

Massive rain on Warrego near Helidon atm.
Son just called lots water on road but traffic still getting through.
Marburg colour definitely doesnt match the rain rate.

Now you're talking Mad Elf, here's hoping it makes it to the coast!

A little bit of lightning activity shown on the weatherzone tracker near Harrisville. Something to keep a eye on. STW was out for Toowoomba, unsure if that still applies

Looks like we gona get stuff all from this lot unless another line builds later or tomorrow, maybe.

Woke this morning to find Salisbury had 11.9mm fall at some stage overnight, and we must have had a shower of rain during today as the gauge is up another 0.8mm...brings the total from 4 seperate lots of rainfalls since Saturday morning to 14.2mm

We've had stuff all around here but hopefully later tonight might bring somethin decent.AccessR certainly thinks so with 50 mls or so projected for this area and inland round the border ranges.

In Brisbane for a couple of days, looks like I need to leave town for Warwick to get any rain, lol. Nice to see rain in the area. I wonder how the west end of Warwick did? Any ideas Pete, Mark or Signalman?

It was. The initial 4:50am issue this morning included very high chance of showers tending to rain at times. This was updated at 11:57am to very high chance of showers.

Thanks Ken

No probs gleno.

Never ever take the positions or timings of the rainfall areas literally on model maps like the one below from the latest ACCESS-C run but nevertheless, it does provide useful guidance about the general bigger picture on what could happen overnight through tomorrow - in this case, its scenario still suggests a general overall increase in the extent of shower activity from early tomorrow more-so over southern parts. I still wouldn't expect anything epic though.

Map from Weatherzone Layers.

Thanks for your wisdom Ken. Cant see that map though, the smart phone not so smart after all.
Still very humid, got more water out if the aircon than the sky. Hope that changes tomorrow. Need to water all my plants otherwise.

Steady showers here on the GC now (Robina), and the radar showing a band of rain creeping north towards the border.

Geez, come back Mt Stappy, all is forgiven! Sitting here in the hinterland with gutters overflowing and Marburg makes it look like a gentle shower.

Absolutely belting down in Beenleigh.

Light rain atm, 4mm o/night.

14.2mm overnight for Salisbury, doubles the past 4 days total bringing it to 28.4mm.

Up to 145mm of rain has fallen at Bonogin behind the Gold Coast so far since 9am yesterday.

Some other places in SE QLD have gotten over 100mm so far as well.... many other places have received 50-100 mm.
Brisbane's received 57.4mm so far.

The rain was coming down pretty heavy late last night as I was driving through Salisbury with ponding on some parts of the roads. Rainfall since 9am yesterday:

Certainly was pretty wet out this way last night. At one stage the pool overflow pipe could keep up with the rain rate filling the pool. Bugga
Our official gauge says 32mm but our area certainly had a great deal more.

65mm in my gauge here north of Beenleigh. Absolutely fell out of the sky around midnight. Came from the south east. Apparently some local roads to the south of here had flash flooding

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 41.8mm.

Flat out getting to 10mm here. Rain has stopped & its all going south. Plenty low cloud about.

Warwick Eye - your post last night. Heard earlier on ABC radio - 5mm southwest edge Warwick (Shand) - assume overnight. My total in Glennie Heights since 9.00am yesterday is 31mm with about 8mm of that overnight. Showers continuing.

Was woken up at about 1:30 by very heavy rain, checked the radar and saw a very slow moving cell.

I was concerned things might get nasty but thankfully the rain rate eased off. Got 56mm in total.

90mm here overnight. I see an Albany Ck facebook poster saying 135mm overnight , i think she didnt empty her gauge from sunday , when we had 37mm.
137mm in 2 days. nice and damp now.

38mm here overnight.

35.7 for me last night. If this solid, consistent rain keeps up we could see a few more 100+ falls in the usual places today.

Can confirm Bonogin is good and soggy, 166mm to 9am in my gauge, and it's still raining steadily. All the usual causeways are under, although the ABC got it crossed up earlier saying that Somerset Dr, Mudgeeraba was closed, when it was in fact still open. The water features in the back garden were pretty impressive at the height of things last night.

Thanks Signalman. Yes, I see more light rain and showers over the area this morning. Nice total for you. Any rain helps. Too bad there was not more over and around Leslie Dam.
Cheers,
Michael

So now both Doppler radars are off line Mt Kanigan until 4:00pm 10/03/18 and of course Stappy is still out.
Oh Well, there is always a work-around! :-)

Only 30mm here in the 24 hours to 9am this morning. It looks like we just missed out on some heavy rain - places 2-3km NE of here got double that. Not that I'm worried, we got enough rain last month!

Up to 20mm here since this morning. Just as it was starting to dry out too!! Looks like more to come overnight, can see plenty of moisture streaming down from the gulf feeding into the trough on satpic.

Must say though, as much as I love rain we have probably had enough here for the next few weeks. Weeds growing like mad, driveway a muddy mess, paddocks waterlogged, mongrel dog and cat keep dragging mud into the house!! Not gonna complain too much, it sure as hell beats being in drought

Just 5.5mm here for Salisbury today, brings total to 33.9mm since Saturday morning / the past 4 days.

It's definitely been a damp day. 58.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am here, with most of that falling during the early morning / morning period today. Then since 9am this morning, there's been 65.0mm fall.
It's been thanks to periods of rain with heavy to very heavy showers embedded. We've been just in the right spot to get both the early / morning and the late morning / afternoon wave of heavy stuff. Showers have eased off during the past 90 mins or so, and a short time ago spotted a small bit of blue sky some distance toward the west.
Around town today: https://www.instagram.com/p/Bf9bWG4HfPd/ https://www.instagram.com/p/Bf9-tr1Fjow/ https://www.instagram.com/p/Bf9PVV4lKxx/

Highest total to 9am this morning on the MNC was 105mm at Comboyne (inland of Port Macquarie), and since 9am on the MNC, Crystal Creek near Bellingen has recorded 166mm (with 101mm in two hours this afternoon).

Always good to see a garden variety drizzly day, around 20° here throughout most of it.

Rain for us for the event so far is 93mm.

Reporting 18mm after the 9mm prior 9am.
Damp ol day,plenty low cloud, reminds me of Tassie.
18C atm.

Yeah it's always a double edged sword these rainy times. I can't believe it when I hear people in town complaining about the rain, lol.
Boss is a bit over it, can't install solar in this weather, lol.
I think today's the beginning of the trailing off for this area for a few days , but tonight will have a few more mm in it I'm thinking.

Bellingen got a further 167mm since 9am this morning til time of writing while Bald Knob got a further 51mm. There were a number of other locations in SE QLD/NE NSW which got an additional 25-50mm on top of what fell yesterday.

Still on track to get windy at times (and staying cool) for the rest of this week into the weekend with the SE'lies, especially near the coastal fringe, islands and exposed ground where winds could get pretty strong. Some showers from time to time as well.

Brisbane was 19.8C by 3:30pm this afternoon while Toowoomba was 16.8C at the time (with feels-like temp of 12C).

Have posted a wind gust map in the day to day thread.

16mm For Coolangatta today, looks like Warwick scored 11mm since 9am. I'm surprised the rain wasn't onshore, it seemed more coming from the west. Onshore trough must of weakened overnight

I'm presuming we will be under a SE stream for quite some time Ken? At least until winter when we start getting the westerlies?

Yesterday delivered 72mm here.
Total from the 4th is 109mm for us in Mooloolah.

13mm for RD for yesterday. March total is now 25.4mm. A lot lower than most of SEQ, but solid follow up from the 100mm or so we had in late Feb.

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 9.0mm. 61.6mm for the event.

10mm at Sunnybank yesterday and 3mm since 4:30 am this morning. I was up all night, till 4:30, and it was all starry skys. Looks like I have another day off

Just wait till winter!

Nice rainfall Seabreeze - my station managed 50.5 till 9am yesterday and 50.6 till 9am this morning.

My sisters manual gauge (a few km away) recorded 150mm in total - apparently first checking and emptying it at 6am yesterday morning before work and then again at 7:30 this morning, not your standard 9-9 regime but I guess she isn't really able to stick to that.

31.3mm to 6am this morning, taking the event total to 77mm. Looks like a cool showery week ahead.

15mm over 5 rain days here. Drizzly crap again today.

171mm for summer, about 140mm less then Toowoomba airport. Theres a real rain shadow effect from the eastern escarpment of Toowoomba to the western parts of town.

213mm just outside Bellingen in the 24 hours to 9am this morning, with many other totals across the area over 100mm. Localised flooding with some flash flooding in one of the local rivers:



Good to see the BoM note that rise in their STW:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:46 pm Tuesday, 6 March 2018.
Weather Situation:
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Coffs Harbour, Woolgoolga, Sawtell, Bellingen, Dorrigo and Glenreagh.
Bellingen (Crytstal Creek) received 101mm rainfall in 2 hour between 02:00pm and 04:00pm. Rapid waterlevel rise has been observed in Never Never Creek.

No flooding in town - has been pretty dry here so the ground would have soaked up a heap. Still some decent rises in the Bellinger. Looks like that is the end of the fun for some time...just a few trade showers over the next few days.

38.7mm event total fo Salisbury now, so that's 4.8mm overnight / this morning.

Warwick did reasonably well with 53.6mm over the past 2 days to 9.00am today. My gauge in North Warwick registered 48mm. I think this is the best 2 day rainfall since the end of March last year - almost 12 months. Warwick Eye is our local Rain Accountant so will wait for his confirmation.

Will be in town tomorrow evening Signalman. I will certainly let you know how the west end did as soon as possible. Still in Wynnum West enjoying the tropical-like showers. You are certainly right, this is the best rain event for the Warwick area since March 30, 31st of last year. The first week in February this year was not too bad either. I think we have finally turned the corner.

Getting some nice periodic gusty shower action here from the SE up at Buderim on the hill.

Another 3.1mm from todays showery activity brings event total for Salisbury to 41.8mm

That's great news

67.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning. After the showery mass cleared off yesterday evening, there wasn't much more that fell. In total for the three-day event, there was 129.4mm here (3.2 + 58.8 + 67.4).
Noticed the Bellinger River at Thora got within 2cm of reaching its minor flood level.

A couple of brief showers have brought 2.4mm since 9am. The onshore flow should continue to bring the odd shower over the next few days.

Pretty good start to the month, though still a bit over 50mm from reaching the lofty heights of the March average.

Not as good on the west end Signalman with 31mm over the same 2 days period, compared to your 48mm and the official gauge at 53.6mm.. That has been the trend this year however. Last year and the year before it seemed to be the west end copping the best action. Never the same...