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#1455523 - 03/03/2018 12:25 SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
The end date (6th March) of this thread is a bit open-ended since the rainfall in our region will probably only gradually taper off into lingering showers rather than ending abruptly.
At this stage, the main peak in the more widespread rainfall looks like being southern parts of SE QLD as well as NE NSW (MNC, Northern Rivers, etc) around Monday with moderate to perhaps locally heavy falls.

Here's my take on the coming days based on data at time of writing (timings are subject to change of course):

Today (Saturday) - humid with a mix of sun and clouds then later today and tonight over the southern and central Downs, some showers & thunderstorms developing, some of which might try to creep into inland SE QLD (but even if any reach the coast, most will probably just be hit & miss remnants overnight).

Sunday - very muggy then a number places in our region may see showers and storms developing as an approaching midlevel shortwave trough approaches with the moisture/instability probably being enough to overcome any earlier cloud cover. A few places could also get localised heavier falls.
Interestingly, the 18z ACCESS-C run doesn't have much happening until at least mid afternoon (but beyond that is unknown since it's beyond its maximum forecast lead time).

Monday - showers and periods of rain; a few places could get thunder... and in NE NSW and southeastern parts of SE QLD, heavy falls with pockets of flash flooding are a chance as another midlevel shortwave approaches.
At the moment, the positioning of the shortwave looks like favouring southern parts of our region re the higher rainfall amounts although if it were to track a bit further north than currently expected, the better rainfall amounts may spread further north as well.
Most of the usual ingredients for reasonable rainfall amounts are there e.g. moist profiles with some backing winds with height, upslide, onshore flow and fairly high precipitable water values, and some instability.
BUT rainfall amounts and timings aren't quite set in stone just yet due to the possibility of a local deepening of the offshore trough or a weak small low forming off the NE NSW coast later in the day (EC's scenario) - if that happens and the southerly flow it flicks up the coast on its rear flank interrupts the more moist onshore flow, it may reduce rainfall amounts a little but currently doesn't look strong enough to have a huge effect.

Tuesday - cooler stronger SSE flow starts kicking in later in the day and could start getting quite windy along the coast, islands & more exposed ground by night time. Looks like showers hanging around, more numerous in the southeastern coastal & hinterlands areas where they could tend to some rain at times for a period.

Wednesday & Thursday - windy along the coast, islands & more exposed ground with some showers around

Some graphics below (as always with the graph for Brisbane, actual rainfall amounts can sometimes be much higher or lower than even the highest and lowest scenarios on the graph depending on convection, etc):





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#1455535 - 03/03/2018 16:07 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
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Registered: 24/01/2012
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Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Could well be one of those systems where the falls surprise on the up side.

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#1455536 - 03/03/2018 16:12 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
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Loc: Warwick, QLD
I know it's a day early, but storms are gathering to our SW. Texas area southwestward to south of Goondiwindi with some good action right now. Do you think they have the push to make it through SE QLD? Or even just this area?
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#1455543 - 03/03/2018 18:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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Loc: Australia
Access C has most of the storm activity lingering around the Brisbane region and the North Western part of the scenic rim region and west of the Sunshine Coast for sunday arvo.

Remember Access C nailed the forecast for last Monday's storm.

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#1455552 - 03/03/2018 21:06 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Ken Kato Offline
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Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
I know it's a day early, but storms are gathering to our SW. Texas area southwestward to south of Goondiwindi with some good action right now. Do you think they have the push to make it through SE QLD? Or even just this area?

Various models including ACCESS-C were suggesting much of it would fizzle out by the time it got closer to coastal SE QLD which is what appears to be happening judging by current radar. The line is clearly gusting out at the moment as the outflow spreads out too far ahead of it.

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#1455554 - 03/03/2018 21:37 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Flowin Offline
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Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Ants were hyperactive today.

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#1455556 - 03/03/2018 21:52 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Flowin Offline
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Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Interesting bigger picture sat water vapour images at present.

https://weather.us/satellite/1423-e-268-s/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play2

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#1455560 - 03/03/2018 22:27 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Nice sat pic, just shows why nothing happening in C.S. next few days as well.

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#1455577 - 04/03/2018 09:12 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
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Loc: Warwick, QLD
Very heavy rain and minor flooding west of here near Karara/Thanes Creek. It looked promising, but weakened and split apart once it approached us. We recorded 6mm last night and early this morning. This event is looking less promising for us now. Just bring on the cold weather...
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#1455578 - 04/03/2018 09:19 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
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Yep, Michael, places to the west and NW of Warwick did well. Just stick with the Bureau forecasts and forget the models and see what happens.
Cheers

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#1455581 - 04/03/2018 09:39 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Models form the main basis of Bureau's forecasts before manual input of course so it'll often be very similar to raw model output anyway.

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#1455583 - 04/03/2018 09:44 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
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Understand Ken, but in reading all the QLD notes & forecasts I cannot see any reason for thinking negatively, but also realize the total weirdness of the Warwick area.

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#1455600 - 04/03/2018 12:28 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
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Loc: Strathpine, QLD
I'm heading down to Mt Gravatt this afternoon so hope to catch some action whilst I'm down there.

Something always seems to pass through South Brisbane when storms are about, so I'm pretty hopeful grin
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#1455601 - 04/03/2018 12:33 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
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Now that I am back home I can say I meant the weather in Warwick as being weird not the good citizens.

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#1455602 - 04/03/2018 12:46 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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It seems "at this stage" SE QLD should dodge that high cloud cover the the Mid North Coast of NSW is enduring at the moment. Seems to be slipping south of the border when you play the loop. Be interesting to see what storm development will be like this afternoon.

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#1455603 - 04/03/2018 12:46 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
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I'd like to think we all understood your comment was in the context of weather Pete poke
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#1455604 - 04/03/2018 12:47 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
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Thanks.

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#1455613 - 04/03/2018 13:46 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
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Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Reckon you are right no matter what pete. Cause Iím sure there are a few weirdos out Warwick way. Letís hope we get a. Nice wet storm later today.

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#1455620 - 04/03/2018 14:15 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Ken Kato Offline
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Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Understand Ken, but in reading all the QLD notes & forecasts I cannot see any reason for thinking negatively, but also realize the total weirdness of the Warwick area.

Indeed, I'm all too familiar with the perceived dome effect in my local area too although areas like Warwick clearly need the rainfall a lot more than here.

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#1455621 - 04/03/2018 14:16 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Now that I am back home I can say I meant the weather in Warwick as being weird not the good citizens.

lol I'm sure everyone knew what you meant.

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#1455630 - 04/03/2018 15:22 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Zits popping up, here we go.
Dark lumpy clouds gathering.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (04/03/2018 15:23)

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#1455631 - 04/03/2018 15:35 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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A Bit of buildup on the GC hinterland, certainly nothing compared to last Monday at this stage. Looks like west of Toowoomba where the action could be

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#1455639 - 04/03/2018 16:05 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Online   content
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Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Steering is probably N to NW slow shear but, lots of alto cumulus around.

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#1455649 - 04/03/2018 17:15 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
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Loc: Warwick, QLD
Looks like activity to your north dropping a bit south for you Pete. I knew what you meant too by the way, lol.
Cheers.
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#1455650 - 04/03/2018 17:16 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
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Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Mixing up nicely now , has to chuck it down later.

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#1455652 - 04/03/2018 17:20 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
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Loc: Wynnum
TS developed on top of us at Wynnum Nth 20 minutes ago. It lasted for 2 thunderclaps and gave us 8.0mm. It has now moved to the NE into the BBay.
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#1455662 - 04/03/2018 17:54 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Lani Offline
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Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1158
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
So weird outside, surrounded by dark clouds on all sides while nice and sunny in the middle. High clouds moving in southerly direction while low cloud is seriously swirling around our property in a big circular motion in the opposite direction slowly filling in our sunlight.
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2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1455663 - 04/03/2018 17:57 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
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Registered: 24/01/2012
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Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I think the cell skirting me here now with big chunky drops will turn ne also, although radar says itís coming right at me , itís gona turn away and tease hell outta me.


Edited by BIG T (04/03/2018 17:58)

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#1455665 - 04/03/2018 18:01 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Posts: 5303
Looking nice on the latest Airservices/Bureau camera at Toowoomba Airport:



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#1455670 - 04/03/2018 18:41 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snapper22lb Offline
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Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 286
Loc: Golden Beach
Warning siren just sounded on ABC. Heavy rain nth Brisbane. 75mm in 30 minutes. Holy smokes!

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#1455672 - 04/03/2018 18:42 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
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Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Think Iíve had the luck today, still going here , would had to have had 20mm by now Iím guessing , will check when itís done. Cirrus , surely you stayed home to be under this?

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#1455676 - 04/03/2018 18:49 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
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Loc: Bardon 4065
Just a bit light rain as well as a few rumbles of thunder to the north. A bit of lightning around but appears to be all CC.
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#1455682 - 04/03/2018 19:08 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2012
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Loc: Salisbury
Not much going on here at Salisbury, had 0.7mm fall early on Saturday morning and 0.8mm fall here about half an hour ago after hearing one rumble of thunder.


Edited by Namarrkun (04/03/2018 19:09)

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#1455685 - 04/03/2018 19:15 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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Loc: Australia
Storms are stubborn and slow moving. Must not be much shear around

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#1455686 - 04/03/2018 19:23 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
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Loc: Bardon 4065
Some big falls showing up on the alert stations since 0900.Most would have fallen over the last two hours.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/qld_metro.shtml

88mm at Kobble Creek
66mm at Cedar Creek

No doubt the reason the dangerous storm label on the warning issued at 6:00pm
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#1455689 - 04/03/2018 19:28 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
zuldjan Offline
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Registered: 16/03/2010
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51mm here in about 50min. Rain rate peaked at 146mm/hr


Edited by zuldjan (04/03/2018 19:28)
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#1455690 - 04/03/2018 19:28 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
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Registered: 24/01/2012
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Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
37mm here , very nice storm , steady rain , never any rain rates that were over the top , bit of occasional lightning, perfect.

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#1455691 - 04/03/2018 19:31 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Squeako_88 Offline
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Loc: Elimbah 4516
99mm in an hour at Mt Mee in the latest warning.
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#1455692 - 04/03/2018 19:42 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Online   content
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Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Think later tonight/tomorrow was looking better for precip. Asides places that have already recieved good amounts.


Edited by Steve O (04/03/2018 19:43)

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#1455693 - 04/03/2018 19:48 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
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Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Nothing but heat , mid level cloud and crud down here for today probably showery tomorrow and that's it

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#1455694 - 04/03/2018 19:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Just looked at GFS Tropical Tidbits, 240hrs onwards, I know its a very, very long bow, but awesome to look at.
The word armageddon would be a fitting description. Wouldnt bother us but still, Dont want it!
Solid rain in Gatton for over an hour.
Nice.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (04/03/2018 20:05)

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#1455696 - 04/03/2018 20:04 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Squeako_88 Offline
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Loc: Elimbah 4516
Access C nailed the exact location and rainfall rates for tonight so far.
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#1455698 - 04/03/2018 20:15 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Lani Offline
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Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1158
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
And again, surrounded by rain but nothing here. We are the southwest donut hole LOL.
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2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1455700 - 04/03/2018 20:40 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
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Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1108
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Access c been on itís A game of late. Another 50mm by Wednesday will be superb.

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#1455715 - 04/03/2018 21:57 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
gleno71 Offline
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Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Access C nailed the exact location and rainfall rates for tonight so far.



The only Model im looking at these days. Love the high res

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#1455718 - 04/03/2018 22:07 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Phantom Offline
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Registered: 10/01/2009
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Loc: Buckendoon, NSW. 2472
0.6mm rainfall here today a bit of distant thunder and overcast since about 4pm but thats it!!

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#1455720 - 04/03/2018 22:27 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Stephen Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2004
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Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Both storms near sunny coast today weakened or went around Buderim, only to for again once it passed buderim. Directly to the south and north are gettin heavy rain, and hardly anything here like usual. Buderim is like a real doughnut hole.
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#1455721 - 04/03/2018 22:31 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
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Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1108
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I rekn there wouldíve been solid falls somewhere between here and dayboro. Anyone in that area?

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#1455722 - 04/03/2018 22:48 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
redbucket Offline
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Registered: 29/01/2011
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Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
8.4mm this afternoon/evening in RD.

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#1455724 - 04/03/2018 23:07 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
12mm this arvo/tonight.

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#1455732 - 05/03/2018 08:14 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozone doug Offline
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Posts: 1839
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all, Nice 45 mm overnight at my place .Bungil creek in Roma is at 5.4 mts minor flood level .
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#1455733 - 05/03/2018 08:23 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Morning all, 13mm total & a WATL downgrade.
Wouldnt be the first time, still expecting plenty.

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#1455734 - 05/03/2018 08:34 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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The main peak in the showers/patchy rain areas here probably won't occur until late today, overnight or early tomorrow due to that uncertainty mentioned in the original post coming into play i.e. the localised deepening of the trough just offshore deflecting the winds over land to a bit more of a southerly component.

Once that trough/convergence zone flattens out a bit later today, it should allow the flow to become more onshore and moist.

A number of models have also lowered their forecast rainfall totals to be more in line with the models that had the more conservative totals (as Mad Elf mentioned re the WATL downgrade).... but should still be wet weather from time to time with that main peak late today or early tomorrow.

Here's the latest suggestions re accumulating rainfall from some of the models for Brisbane:



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#1455735 - 05/03/2018 08:46 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gberg Offline
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Registered: 14/08/2015
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Loc: noosaville
Nice downpour here last night just after 10pm. Ended up with 64.7mm.

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#1455736 - 05/03/2018 08:50 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4681
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 10.6mm.
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#1455739 - 05/03/2018 08:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
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Loc: Toowoomba
I assume that trough off the coast Ken mentioned was the cause of that horrid South to SWer's that howled all day. It always come back even this time of year. Only a few mls from that impressive looking storm yesterday. Just looked at the Warwick Gliding club Webcam. Almost totally clear sky.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (05/03/2018 09:01)

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#1455756 - 05/03/2018 12:21 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4681
Loc: Wynnum
GFS talking again about one of their many TC's they seem to forecast each TC season, this time centred around the 18th. Yesterday afternoon, it was just brushing Fraser Is. 3 hours later it was crossing the coast instead near Cardwell. This morning it is further off Fraser Is on its way to NZ. Yawn.....
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep30.2(32)YTD717.6(833.8),

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#1455759 - 05/03/2018 13:16 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Noticed CMC & AccessG got one poking around off the coast a bit earlier on the 14th. Thats 3 models kind of lining up. Late season burst with attitude perhaps?

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#1455760 - 05/03/2018 13:26 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
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Loc: Strathpine, QLD
I did end up arriving home just in time Big T, ended up going through it all at the peak I'd say.

You're right about Albany Creek, absolutely pelting down as I drove through there, had to slow to 40.

At home we got 26mm and a record high rain rate of 248mm/h in what was a truly torrential downpour.

We're glad the worst of it was short lived as any prolonged rain like that would have surely introduced a flood risk for us here.
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#1455786 - 05/03/2018 15:32 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
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Did anyone else expect there to be a bit more on radar than what there is now? BoM were going for 20-50mm for today, as were a number of other models.

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#1455788 - 05/03/2018 15:44 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snapper22lb Offline
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Loc: Golden Beach
Yes I was just thinking the same thing. I thought there was a trough moving from the east onshore. Of course it will be hosing down in half an hour.

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#1455790 - 05/03/2018 15:49 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: wet sky]
Ken Kato Offline
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Originally Posted By: wet sky
Did anyone else expect there to be a bit more on radar than what there is now? BoM were going for 20-50mm for today, as were a number of other models.


Not sure if you saw the post this morning but I've highlighted the relevant bits in bold (I haven't been checking every run of every model but I do remember yesterday seeing the onset not being until late today or early tomorrow):

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The main peak in the showers/patchy rain areas here probably won't occur until late today, overnight or early tomorrow due to that uncertainty mentioned in the original post coming into play i.e. the localised deepening of the trough just offshore deflecting the winds over land to a bit more of a southerly component.

Once that trough/convergence zone flattens out a bit later today, it should allow the flow to become more onshore and moist.

A number of models have also lowered their forecast rainfall totals to be more in line with the models that had the more conservative totals (as Mad Elf mentioned re the WATL downgrade).... but should still be wet weather from time to time with that main peak late today or early tomorrow.

Here's the latest suggestions re accumulating rainfall from some of the models for Brisbane:



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#1455794 - 05/03/2018 15:57 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
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Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: wet sky
Did anyone else expect there to be a bit more on radar than what there is now? BoM were going for 20-50mm for today, as were a number of other models.


Not sure if you saw the post this morning but I've highlighted the relevant bits in bold (I haven't been checking every run of every model but I do remember yesterday seeing the onset not being until late today or early tomorrow):

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The main peak in the showers/patchy rain areas here probably won't occur until late today, overnight or early tomorrow due to that uncertainty mentioned in the original post coming into play i.e. the localised deepening of the trough just offshore deflecting the winds over land to a bit more of a southerly component.

Once that trough/convergence zone flattens out a bit later today, it should allow the flow to become more onshore and moist.

A number of models have also lowered their forecast rainfall totals to be more in line with the models that had the more conservative totals (as Mad Elf mentioned re the WATL downgrade).... but should still be wet weather from time to time with that main peak late today or early tomorrow.

Here's the latest suggestions re accumulating rainfall from some of the models for Brisbane:




Thanks Ken. Didn't check the forum this morning so missed that post.

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#1455796 - 05/03/2018 16:14 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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No worries, it may be the case that many areas actually end up getting more rainfall tomorrow rather than today if the flow does become more onshore.

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#1455800 - 05/03/2018 16:44 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snapper22lb Offline
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Ok thanks Ken. I am off to mow the lawn and wait for the rain. Cheers

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#1455801 - 05/03/2018 16:47 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
gleno71 Offline
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Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Yes I was just thinking the same thing. I thought there was a trough moving from the east onshore. Of course it will be hosing down in half an hour.


I wasn't aware of a offshore trough?? I thought our rain was coming from inland from that low in NW Qld ?

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#1455802 - 05/03/2018 16:50 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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Anyways it doesn't look like much in the way of storm activity although a bit of a rumble near warwick but nothing to throw a party about

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#1455807 - 05/03/2018 17:31 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Definitely not party material around here either.It's been hot ,oppressively muggy and nothing but a spit and some dribble with storms off the forecast and a long stretch of boring weather to look forward to.B ummer!

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#1455808 - 05/03/2018 17:33 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
signalman Offline
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Yes Gleno, a few rumbles around Warwick ; 21mm today plus 8 odd a couple of days ago. I think Allora did better today. BOM forecast very encouraging for tomorrow. Hope it develops as general rain rather than isolated stuff.

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#1455809 - 05/03/2018 17:41 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: signalman]
gleno71 Offline
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Originally Posted By: signalman
Yes Gleno, a few rumbles around Warwick ; 21mm today plus 8 odd a couple of days ago. I think Allora did better today. BOM forecast very encouraging for tomorrow. Hope it develops as general rain rather than isolated stuff.


I know Ken stated the rain would be more overnight tonight and into tomorrow, but I could of sworn Brisbane's forecast was "rain at times" for Monday? Unless the charts did a massive swing. Still very humid and no doubt will be a warm night under the cloud cover.

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#1455819 - 05/03/2018 18:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Aussiestormguy Offline
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Registered: 04/08/2010
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Loc: Allora
We got 49mm here at Mt Marshall just 3 mins drive south of Allora this arvo. I think Allora got the bulk. We also had 20mm on Sat so doing well here and looking forward to those who have missed out to get good and well deserved rain scores in the coming 48 hours.

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#1455820 - 05/03/2018 18:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Massive rain on Warrego near Helidon atm.
Son just called lots water on road but traffic still getting through.
Marburg colour definitely doesnt match the rain rate.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (05/03/2018 18:19)

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#1455824 - 05/03/2018 18:36 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
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Now you're talking Mad Elf, here's hoping it makes it to the coast!
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#1455827 - 05/03/2018 18:49 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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A little bit of lightning activity shown on the weatherzone tracker near Harrisville. Something to keep a eye on. STW was out for Toowoomba, unsure if that still applies

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#1455830 - 05/03/2018 19:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Looks like we gona get stuff all from this lot unless another line builds later or tomorrow, maybe.

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#1455834 - 05/03/2018 19:39 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
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Loc: Salisbury
Woke this morning to find Salisbury had 11.9mm fall at some stage overnight, and we must have had a shower of rain during today as the gauge is up another 0.8mm...brings the total from 4 seperate lots of rainfalls since Saturday morning to 14.2mm

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#1455836 - 05/03/2018 19:51 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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We've had stuff all around here but hopefully later tonight might bring somethin decent.AccessR certainly thinks so with 50 mls or so projected for this area and inland round the border ranges.

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#1455837 - 05/03/2018 20:11 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
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Loc: Warwick, QLD
In Brisbane for a couple of days, looks like I need to leave town for Warwick to get any rain, lol. Nice to see rain in the area. I wonder how the west end of Warwick did? Any ideas Pete, Mark or Signalman?


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (05/03/2018 20:13)
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#1455838 - 05/03/2018 20:26 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
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Originally Posted By: gleno71
I know Ken stated the rain would be more overnight tonight and into tomorrow, but I could of sworn Brisbane's forecast was "rain at times" for Monday? Unless the charts did a massive swing. Still very humid and no doubt will be a warm night under the cloud cover.

It was. The initial 4:50am issue this morning included very high chance of showers tending to rain at times. This was updated at 11:57am to very high chance of showers.

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#1455841 - 05/03/2018 20:52 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I know Ken stated the rain would be more overnight tonight and into tomorrow, but I could of sworn Brisbane's forecast was "rain at times" for Monday? Unless the charts did a massive swing. Still very humid and no doubt will be a warm night under the cloud cover.

It was. The initial 4:50am issue this morning included very high chance of showers tending to rain at times. This was updated at 11:57am to very high chance of showers.


Thanks Ken smile

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#1455844 - 05/03/2018 21:04 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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No probs gleno.

Never ever take the positions or timings of the rainfall areas literally on model maps like the one below from the latest ACCESS-C run but nevertheless, it does provide useful guidance about the general bigger picture on what could happen overnight through tomorrow - in this case, its scenario still suggests a general overall increase in the extent of shower activity from early tomorrow more-so over southern parts. I still wouldn't expect anything epic though.

Map from Weatherzone Layers.







Edited by Ken Kato (05/03/2018 21:05)

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#1455846 - 05/03/2018 21:56 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Thanks for your wisdom Ken. Cant see that map though, the smart phone not so smart after all.
Still very humid, got more water out if the aircon than the sky. Hope that changes tomorrow. Need to water all my plants otherwise.

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#1455851 - 05/03/2018 22:33 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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Steady showers here on the GC now (Robina), and the radar showing a band of rain creeping north towards the border.

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#1455853 - 05/03/2018 22:53 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
windshear Offline
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Loc: Bonogin, Gold Coast Hinterland
Geez, come back Mt Stappy, all is forgiven! Sitting here in the hinterland with gutters overflowing and Marburg makes it look like a gentle shower.

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#1455859 - 06/03/2018 00:37 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Blinky_Bill Offline
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Loc: Beenleigh SEQ
Absolutely belting down in Beenleigh.
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#1455866 - 06/03/2018 05:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Light rain atm, 4mm o/night.

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#1455870 - 06/03/2018 06:36 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
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Loc: Salisbury
14.2mm overnight for Salisbury, doubles the past 4 days total bringing it to 28.4mm.

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#1455873 - 06/03/2018 07:28 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Up to 145mm of rain has fallen at Bonogin behind the Gold Coast so far since 9am yesterday.

Some other places in SE QLD have gotten over 100mm so far as well.... many other places have received 50-100 mm.
Brisbane's received 57.4mm so far.

The rain was coming down pretty heavy late last night as I was driving through Salisbury with ponding on some parts of the roads. Rainfall since 9am yesterday:



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#1455878 - 06/03/2018 08:21 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
DDstorm Offline
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Registered: 13/05/2010
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Loc: Tallai, QLD
Certainly was pretty wet out this way last night. At one stage the pool overflow pipe could keep up with the rain rate filling the pool. Bugga
Our official gauge says 32mm but our area certainly had a great deal more.


Edited by DDstorm (06/03/2018 08:23)
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#1455880 - 06/03/2018 08:37 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
whethertraveller Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2011
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Loc: Northern Gold Coast
65mm in my gauge here north of Beenleigh. Absolutely fell out of the sky around midnight. Came from the south east. Apparently some local roads to the south of here had flash flooding

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#1455883 - 06/03/2018 08:51 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
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Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 41.8mm.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep30.2(32)YTD717.6(833.8),

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#1455884 - 06/03/2018 08:52 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Flat out getting to 10mm here. Rain has stopped & its all going south. Plenty low cloud about.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (06/03/2018 08:53)

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#1455885 - 06/03/2018 09:01 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
signalman Offline
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Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 88
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Warwick Eye - your post last night. Heard earlier on ABC radio - 5mm southwest edge Warwick (Shand) - assume overnight. My total in Glennie Heights since 9.00am yesterday is 31mm with about 8mm of that overnight. Showers continuing.

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#1455887 - 06/03/2018 09:04 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
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Registered: 17/09/2015
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Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Was woken up at about 1:30 by very heavy rain, checked the radar and saw a very slow moving cell.

I was concerned things might get nasty but thankfully the rain rate eased off. Got 56mm in total.
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#1455888 - 06/03/2018 09:06 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
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Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1108
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
90mm here overnight. I see an Albany Ck facebook poster saying 135mm overnight , i think she didnt empty her gauge from sunday , when we had 37mm.
137mm in 2 days. nice and damp now.

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#1455890 - 06/03/2018 09:15 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Wight Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2011
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Loc: Montville, QLD
38mm here overnight.

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#1455896 - 06/03/2018 09:47 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
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Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
35.7 for me last night. If this solid, consistent rain keeps up we could see a few more 100+ falls in the usual places today.

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#1455911 - 06/03/2018 11:48 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
windshear Offline
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Registered: 08/02/2008
Posts: 160
Loc: Bonogin, Gold Coast Hinterland
Can confirm Bonogin is good and soggy, 166mm to 9am in my gauge, and it's still raining steadily. All the usual causeways are under, although the ABC got it crossed up earlier saying that Somerset Dr, Mudgeeraba was closed, when it was in fact still open. The water features in the back garden were pretty impressive at the height of things last night.

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#1455914 - 06/03/2018 12:38 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
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Loc: Warwick, QLD
Thanks Signalman. Yes, I see more light rain and showers over the area this morning. Nice total for you. Any rain helps. Too bad there was not more over and around Leslie Dam.
Cheers,
Michael


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (06/03/2018 12:38)
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#1455915 - 06/03/2018 12:48 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gympieweather Offline
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Loc: Veteran Weather Station, Queen...
So now both Doppler radars are off line Mt Kanigan until 4:00pm 10/03/18 and of course Stappy is still out.
Oh Well, there is always a work-around! :-)

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#1455931 - 06/03/2018 15:27 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: gympieweather]
Lewis Offline
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Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 331
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Only 30mm here in the 24 hours to 9am this morning. It looks like we just missed out on some heavy rain - places 2-3km NE of here got double that. Not that I'm worried, we got enough rain last month!
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#1455939 - 06/03/2018 16:58 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
LightningGus Offline
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Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1198
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Up to 20mm here since this morning. Just as it was starting to dry out too!! Looks like more to come overnight, can see plenty of moisture streaming down from the gulf feeding into the trough on satpic.

Must say though, as much as I love rain we have probably had enough here for the next few weeks. Weeds growing like mad, driveway a muddy mess, paddocks waterlogged, mongrel dog and cat keep dragging mud into the house!! grin Not gonna complain too much, it sure as hell beats being in drought smile
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#1455951 - 06/03/2018 18:12 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 442
Loc: Salisbury
Just 5.5mm here for Salisbury today, brings total to 33.9mm since Saturday morning / the past 4 days.

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#1455966 - 06/03/2018 19:30 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Seabreeze Offline
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Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10418
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
It's definitely been a damp day. 58.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am here, with most of that falling during the early morning / morning period today. Then since 9am this morning, there's been 65.0mm fall.
It's been thanks to periods of rain with heavy to very heavy showers embedded. We've been just in the right spot to get both the early / morning and the late morning / afternoon wave of heavy stuff. Showers have eased off during the past 90 mins or so, and a short time ago spotted a small bit of blue sky some distance toward the west.
Around town today: https://www.instagram.com/p/Bf9bWG4HfPd/ https://www.instagram.com/p/Bf9-tr1Fjow/ https://www.instagram.com/p/Bf9PVV4lKxx/

Highest total to 9am this morning on the MNC was 105mm at Comboyne (inland of Port Macquarie), and since 9am on the MNC, Crystal Creek near Bellingen has recorded 166mm (with 101mm in two hours this afternoon).
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 67.2mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 12 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1068.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 94 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1455970 - 06/03/2018 20:04 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 370
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Always good to see a garden variety drizzly day, around 20į here throughout most of it.

Rain for us for the event so far is 93mm.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1455971 - 06/03/2018 20:06 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3429
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Reporting 18mm after the 9mm prior 9am.
Damp ol day,plenty low cloud, reminds me of Tassie.
18C atm.

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#1455983 - 06/03/2018 21:25 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: LightningGus]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1465
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Up to 20mm here since this morning. Just as it was starting to dry out too!! Looks like more to come overnight, can see plenty of moisture streaming down from the gulf feeding into the trough on satpic.

Must say though, as much as I love rain we have probably had enough here for the next few weeks. Weeds growing like mad, driveway a muddy mess, paddocks waterlogged, mongrel dog and cat keep dragging mud into the house!! grin Not gonna complain too much, it sure as hell beats being in drought smile
Yeah it's always a double edged sword these rainy times. I can't believe it when I hear people in town complaining about the rain, lol.
Boss is a bit over it, can't install solar in this weather, lol.
I think today's the beginning of the trailing off for this area for a few days , but tonight will have a few more mm in it I'm thinking.
_________________________
Also, please note that sentences can also end in full stops. The exclamation mark can be overused.
Sherlock Holmes 28 March 13:08

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#1455991 - 06/03/2018 21:50 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
Bellingen got a further 167mm since 9am this morning til time of writing while Bald Knob got a further 51mm. There were a number of other locations in SE QLD/NE NSW which got an additional 25-50mm on top of what fell yesterday.

Still on track to get windy at times (and staying cool) for the rest of this week into the weekend with the SE'lies, especially near the coastal fringe, islands and exposed ground where winds could get pretty strong. Some showers from time to time as well.

Brisbane was 19.8C by 3:30pm this afternoon while Toowoomba was 16.8C at the time (with feels-like temp of 12C).

Have posted a wind gust map in the day to day thread.

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#1455992 - 06/03/2018 21:54 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1531
Loc: Australia
16mm For Coolangatta today, looks like Warwick scored 11mm since 9am. I'm surprised the rain wasn't onshore, it seemed more coming from the west. Onshore trough must of weakened overnight

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#1455993 - 06/03/2018 21:56 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1531
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Bellingen got a further 167mm since 9am this morning til time of writing while Bald Knob got a further 51mm. There were a number of other locations in SE QLD/NE NSW which got an additional 25-50mm on top of what fell yesterday.

Still on track to get windy at times (and staying cool) for the rest of this week into the weekend with the SE'lies, especially near the coastal fringe, islands and exposed ground where winds could get pretty strong. Some showers from time to time as well.

Brisbane was 19.8C by 3:30pm this afternoon while Toowoomba was 16.8C at the time (with feels-like temp of 12C).

Have posted a wind gust map in the day to day thread.


I'm presuming we will be under a SE stream for quite some time Ken? At least until winter when we start getting the westerlies?

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#1456012 - 07/03/2018 07:47 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 95
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Yesterday delivered 72mm here.
Total from the 4th is 109mm for us in Mooloolah.
_________________________
Going to sleep with heavy rain on a tin roof always makes for ĎwetdreamsíÖ.

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#1456021 - 07/03/2018 08:41 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
13mm for RD for yesterday. March total is now 25.4mm. A lot lower than most of SEQ, but solid follow up from the 100mm or so we had in late Feb.

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#1456025 - 07/03/2018 08:56 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4681
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 9.0mm. 61.6mm for the event.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep30.2(32)YTD717.6(833.8),

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#1456027 - 07/03/2018 09:01 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
kg8 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/10/2014
Posts: 99
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD and brisbane
10mm at Sunnybank yesterday and 3mm since 4:30 am this morning. I was up all night, till 4:30, and it was all starry skys. Looks like I have another day off smile

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#1456029 - 07/03/2018 09:07 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 207
Loc: Kingsford (Sydney)
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Brisbane was 19.8C by 3:30pm this afternoon while Toowoomba was 16.8C at the time (with feels-like temp of 12C).

Just wait till winter! poke

Nice rainfall Seabreeze - my station managed 50.5 till 9am yesterday and 50.6 till 9am this morning.

My sisters manual gauge (a few km away) recorded 150mm in total - apparently first checking and emptying it at 6am yesterday morning before work and then again at 7:30 this morning, not your standard 9-9 regime but I guess she isn't really able to stick to that.

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#1456034 - 07/03/2018 09:56 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 650
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
31.3mm to 6am this morning, taking the event total to 77mm. Looks like a cool showery week ahead.

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#1456035 - 07/03/2018 09:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1041
Loc: West Toowoomba
15mm over 5 rain days here. Drizzly crap again today.

171mm for summer, about 140mm less then Toowoomba airport. Theres a real rain shadow effect from the eastern escarpment of Toowoomba to the western parts of town.

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#1456037 - 07/03/2018 10:04 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5196
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
213mm just outside Bellingen in the 24 hours to 9am this morning, with many other totals across the area over 100mm. Localised flooding with some flash flooding in one of the local rivers:



Good to see the BoM note that rise in their STW:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:46 pm Tuesday, 6 March 2018.
Weather Situation:
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Coffs Harbour, Woolgoolga, Sawtell, Bellingen, Dorrigo and Glenreagh.
Bellingen (Crytstal Creek) received 101mm rainfall in 2 hour between 02:00pm and 04:00pm. Rapid waterlevel rise has been observed in Never Never Creek.


No flooding in town - has been pretty dry here so the ground would have soaked up a heap. Still some decent rises in the Bellinger. Looks like that is the end of the fun for some time...just a few trade showers over the next few days.

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#1456039 - 07/03/2018 10:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 442
Loc: Salisbury
38.7mm event total fo Salisbury now, so that's 4.8mm overnight / this morning.

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#1456042 - 07/03/2018 10:54 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 88
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Warwick did reasonably well with 53.6mm over the past 2 days to 9.00am today. My gauge in North Warwick registered 48mm. I think this is the best 2 day rainfall since the end of March last year - almost 12 months. Warwick Eye is our local Rain Accountant so will wait for his confirmation.

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#1456063 - 07/03/2018 13:35 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1023
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Will be in town tomorrow evening Signalman. I will certainly let you know how the west end did as soon as possible. Still in Wynnum West enjoying the tropical-like showers. You are certainly right, this is the best rain event for the Warwick area since March 30, 31st of last year. The first week in February this year was not too bad either. I think we have finally turned the corner.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1456066 - 07/03/2018 14:12 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Aussea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2012
Posts: 52
Loc: Taree, Nsw
Getting some nice periodic gusty shower action here from the SE up at Buderim on the hill.

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#1456085 - 07/03/2018 17:33 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 442
Loc: Salisbury
Another 3.1mm from todays showery activity brings event total for Salisbury to 41.8mm

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#1456092 - 07/03/2018 18:29 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: signalman]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1531
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: signalman
Warwick did reasonably well with 53.6mm over the past 2 days to 9.00am today. My gauge in North Warwick registered 48mm. I think this is the best 2 day rainfall since the end of March last year - almost 12 months. Warwick Eye is our local Rain Accountant so will wait for his confirmation.


That's great news

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#1456093 - 07/03/2018 18:31 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10418
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
67.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning. After the showery mass cleared off yesterday evening, there wasn't much more that fell. In total for the three-day event, there was 129.4mm here (3.2 + 58.8 + 67.4).
Noticed the Bellinger River at Thora got within 2cm of reaching its minor flood level.

A couple of brief showers have brought 2.4mm since 9am. The onshore flow should continue to bring the odd shower over the next few days.

Pretty good start to the month, though still a bit over 50mm from reaching the lofty heights of the March average.
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 67.2mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 12 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1068.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 94 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1456251 - 08/03/2018 20:33 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW - Rain/showers/possible storms - 4th to 6th March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1023
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Not as good on the west end Signalman with 31mm over the same 2 days period, compared to your 48mm and the official gauge at 53.6mm.. That has been the trend this year however. Last year and the year before it seemed to be the west end copping the best action. Never the same...
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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