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#1455980 - 06/03/2018 20:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
I'm an impatient fellow.
Nice shower just now.
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#1455981 - 06/03/2018 21:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6001
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Knot
Fair enough Homer.


All good.
Just...... steady on fella. smile
The cooler months will come. They may be short lived, in which time we can have a whinge ourselves.
In saying that, I'm becoming more tolerant to the heat lovers months, and more expectant of the shorter cooler months.
Every year, I hope for a really cold winter.

My fingers are crossed every single year.

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#1455986 - 06/03/2018 21:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Great attitude Homer.
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#1455988 - 06/03/2018 21:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1638
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Well it hasnt snowed in Quorrobolong since 1965. This year might be the year. That would mean snow in all sorts of weird places, so that would suit all the cold lovers. In fact even the hot lovers would like some extreme cold like that Im sure...

Im sure you will ask why...

well it was a really hot summer, so the balance may well be a really cold winter. Solar minimum is deepening and its been 50 years since a cold outbreak like that, so I guess you could take a punt we might be due...

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#1456001 - 07/03/2018 00:00 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7004
Daily mail has now put up a couple of articles claiming that it will be the coldest winter on record for Australia and the person predicting it, David Taylor, supposedly also picked Townsville to get 600mm on Feb 28th. It probably won't happen but it's interesting that you are also making similar predictions. The credible news sources have not made any comment on the predictions.

I would definitely enjoy low level snow and extreme cold Gringos

PS: had a very heavy shower here earlier tonight.


Edited by Wave Rider (07/03/2018 00:07)
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#1456002 - 07/03/2018 00:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 470
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Lol it's the daily mail. BTW what kind of conditions would be conducive for snow for you Gringos.
Another shower just appeared and they sure are heavy the rain rates of these are often underrated by the radar quite often.


Edited by ashestoashes (07/03/2018 00:18)

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#1456005 - 07/03/2018 06:40 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
mkeene(pingtang) Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2011
Posts: 538
Loc: Nowra,NSW
Sadly this David Taylor guy has a massive ego, who is always right in his head. His click bait posts fool a lot of people which is sad to see. The problem is some media outlets have been jumping on board lately which is making things tenfold worse. He's never accountable for his inaccuracies and I can assure you gets it wrong a lot more times he gets it right. We are still waiting for those twin cyclones that were supposed to occur in January. Coldest winter on record is a big call from the yowie chaser.

Anyway it's been cool and showery here since Sunday. Just light showers and drizzle mainly. Temperatures in mid teens overnight and low 20s during the day.

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#1456008 - 07/03/2018 07:17 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
I wonder if David Taylor would like my snow depth prediction methodology. I've been real accurate /s lol he he he
Scattered cloud.
The av min at Nobbys for the first week of March is higher than the first week of each of the summer months recorded there. Significant. I dunno.
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#1456015 - 07/03/2018 08:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 570
Loc: South West Sydney
The Daily Mail is 'awesome' clickbait material. They also said New Zealand would be destroyed in a megathrust earthquake this year.....

Anyway back to weather news - enjoying this cool pattern of temperatures in Sydney finally. Not cold or hot, just right, as goldilocks once said.
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#1456016 - 07/03/2018 08:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1638
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
We are going up in 7.5mm increments here after some nice showers overnight. Definitely greening up. Even the most dead parts of the lawn have a few green sprigs poking up. The mower will finally be needed after a whole summer of no use!

As for snow. Dont know about David Taylor but who knows maybe there is something in the air.

I have been thinking about it for a while (Stormy posted some pics of snow around here a while back which I had seen in the past, but it sort of made me wonder when we were due again)

The conditions to get snow in this area would have to be pretty knarly.

I would think we would need a strong negative SAM, with southern ocean lows amplifying in just the right spot (probably western Vic). I would say we would need some very dynamic uppers, including perhaps a rare vortex split or something that really draws cold a long way north. I would say you would need a NW cloudband cooling the interior of the continent. This might clear in the afternoon to clear night whilst an extreme cold pool is punched north over the central tablelands along with a bit of moisture from the west (say pre frontal trough NWCB/coldpool/front scenario), putting snow down in the early hours of the morning. The setup may happen at the begnining of an ECL cyclogenesis but would have to happen before any wrap around or injection of moisture from the east. I would suspect you may only have an hour or two with settled snow.

I havent looked at the synoptic pattern from the 65 event, but I can see how the charts might look in my head to make such an event happen again. Not sure if my notes would make sense to anyone else though. I would certainly like to experience it in my lifetime. This year is a good a punt as any!

P.S GFS already has some really cold air lurking south of Tassie 7 days out. The 540 thickness just skims the continent, but its only early March. One way or another its probably going to be a big weather winter. Either cold, or ECL crazy..


Edited by GringosRain (07/03/2018 08:32)
Edit Reason: added P.S

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#1456018 - 07/03/2018 08:36 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
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#1456022 - 07/03/2018 08:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
That 65 event went right up into Qld. Snow west of Mackay at Mt Dalrymple (4000ft) on 19th and 20th July. https://m.dailymercury.com.au/news/valley-of-snow-in-1965-ted-agnes-keast/1394511/
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#1456024 - 07/03/2018 08:49 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
And Warwick is tied with Stanthorpe for the coldest temp on record in Qld. -10.6 on the 12th July 1965 (the Stanthorpe reading was in 1961). So it was an incredible multi day cold outbreak. Yes please for another like that some day.
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#1456026 - 07/03/2018 09:00 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10142
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes the middle of March might be interesting according to EC & GFS

Wait n see - if a half decent cold change hits, it may give a nudge along to cooler temps day and night - especially in higher areas.

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#1456033 - 07/03/2018 09:29 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 207
Loc: Kingsford (Sydney)
Plenty cool enough in Sydney at the moment, can't say I am keen for it to get any colder real quick.

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#1456038 - 07/03/2018 10:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5089
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Yes I can wait for the cold, but I will enjoy it when the time comes wink

Lucky I didn't put money on doubling my rainfall figure from yesterday afternoon, not another drop overnight, finished with 9.3mm to 9am this morning.

Quite a pleasant enough day, mostly sunny and quite a humid south-east breeze.

And Gringos, I would love to experience that scenario.
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#1456040 - 07/03/2018 10:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
I look fwd to the heat retreating into the innards of the NT and WA as the year progresses.
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#1456046 - 07/03/2018 12:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10142
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I'm enjoying the slight cooling of the nights and days so far. House no longer getting too hot - quite pleasant temp inside the last week or so.

Currently a max so far of 21 today - will go higher later - cool breeze pleasant.

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#1456047 - 07/03/2018 12:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5089
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
The Newcastle Radar suggesting some solid showers to the North and South of me but its relatively clear skies in those directions.

Originally Posted By: Knot


Very interesting, I thought it snowed in western Sydney in the mid 80s?
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YTD - 875.9mm
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#1456050 - 07/03/2018 12:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4534
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
I can remember around 1984 there was sleet in St Marys/Penrith. Only time I ever remember anything resembling snow. There may have been flurries around, tho I didn't see it.
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