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#1456568 - 10/03/2018 22:12 Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
A few sneaky images to kick off the discussion.

EC deterministic currently going for a Central Coast (approx. Mackay) crossing,

GFS going for a more southerly SE coast-skimming solution (no crossing).

UKMET similar to EC but dipping south and crossing around St Lawrence.

Models which push the system onto the coast show it as a LOW or low-end Cat 1.

EC Ensemble members:


UKMET:


GEFS:


NAVGEM:


Edited by Mick10 (13/03/2018 22:58)

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#1456580 - 10/03/2018 23:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 917
Loc: Bowen
Starting to fire up on MTSAT loop run around the Solomons. Next few days will be of interest to see when the system makes westward turn and how fast the ridge builds to the south to push it west. The Coral Sea is always full of surprises have see many early progs for weak cyclones turn into severe systems in under 48 hrs.

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#1456581 - 10/03/2018 23:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: snowmad]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: snowmad
Starting to fire up on MTSAT loop run around the Solomons. Next few days will be of interest to see when the system makes westward turn and how fast the ridge builds to the south to push it west. The Coral Sea is always full of surprises have see many early progs for weak cyclones turn into severe systems in under 48 hrs.


STC Marcia is a good example of this!
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#1456585 - 10/03/2018 23:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: snowmad
Starting to fire up on MTSAT loop run around the Solomons. Next few days will be of interest to see when the system makes westward turn and how fast the ridge builds to the south to push it west. The Coral Sea is always full of surprises have see many early progs for weak cyclones turn into severe systems in under 48 hrs.


STC Marcia is a good example of this!


Agree! I believe Marcia also had an Equatorial Rossby wave up her tail too, like this one will. Could get interesting.


Edited by Dan101 (10/03/2018 23:49)

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#1456589 - 11/03/2018 00:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2256
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Personally. I dont want any systems unless they are going to hit Brisvegas and I really won't mind if a few pollies get taken out by it.

I have had enough rain to last me for another few months. The only good thing about a system is it might help to dry out the Cape so I can go on my well deserved holiday I have planned.

Unfortunately I will instead be ready, as usual, for what ever mother nature decides to send my way. Prepared, not panicked.

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#1456591 - 11/03/2018 01:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Going by ec ensemble it could hit anywhere along tge qld coast hehe
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#1456598 - 11/03/2018 08:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3531
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Latest BOM State forecast says it might move onto central or southern coasts Thurs onwards with a high degree of uncertainty.
Models going for a bypass though. I suppose nothing is certain until a couple days prior?

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#1456607 - 11/03/2018 09:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18550
Loc: The Beach.
It's interesting that EC has joined GFS and CMC in keeping it off the coast in its run last night . GFS has been keeping it off the coast for 5 days now.
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#1456610 - 11/03/2018 09:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: ColdFront]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
It's interesting that EC has joined GFS and CMC in keeping it off the coast in its run last night . GFS has been keeping it off the coast for 5 days now.

As has UKMET, looking less and less likely that we’ll see a coastal crossing. Guess that upper ridge is not kicking in soon enough or not as strong as originally forecast.

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#1456613 - 11/03/2018 10:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1820
Loc: Kingaroy
The Equatorial Rossby Wave might kick it back to the west, maybe that is the Bureau's thinking.

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#1456618 - 11/03/2018 10:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5422
ER waves are more important as triggers for TC formation rather than steering an already formed TC.

Also,when this morning's state forecast was created, the data from the 12z EC run that shows that system curving to the south would've only just started coming in and even then, the data for all the forecast days wouldn't have come in yet (typically finishes by just before 5pm). Add the fact that major edits aren’t always made to the state forecast depending on time of issue, run to run consistency or lack thereof

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#1456620 - 11/03/2018 10:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


European models two systems from the gyre.

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#1456625 - 11/03/2018 11:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby


European models two systems from the gyre.


90P is the western invest one of two embedded within a very broad monsoon gyre circulation encompassing much the Solomon sea.

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#1456626 - 11/03/2018 11:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3531
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for posting map Rossby, nice view of the planets weather systems.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (11/03/2018 11:37)

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#1456630 - 11/03/2018 12:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 917
Loc: Bowen
BOM Access model and METEYE analysis pushing system as a weakening cyclone/low onto central coast while latest EC and GFS have it heading towards SEQ. I often notice with GFS regarding Solomon's systems that it almost always seems to head them towards SEQ in early days before each run then shifts it back north. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be more interesting when this system is better formed and real time movements and Obs come into play.Lots of factors being crunched at the moment on this girl.

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#1456642 - 11/03/2018 13:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3531
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
So whats her name? ;~}

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#1456673 - 11/03/2018 17:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3254
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Good question as it could be outside of AAOR or inside. What are thoughts of when, where and if this TL develops into a TC?

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#1456679 - 11/03/2018 18:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5422
Latest suggestion from the UK ensemble (MOGREPS) has most members currently keeping the Solomon Islands system out to sea while an outlier brings it onto the coast:



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#1456680 - 11/03/2018 19:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
OMG at latest EC is that a CAT 4 hitting Brisbane. Arghh nooooo. Our news filled with weeks of QLD doom.
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#1456681 - 11/03/2018 19:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
CycloneTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/01/2015
Posts: 29
Loc: Mackay

A broad area of low pressure over the Solomon Islands in the northeastern Coral Sea is expected to consolidate into a tropical low during the next 12 to 24 hours. This low is then expected to move southward until about Tuesday, and may develop further during this period. The probability of this low developing into a tropical cyclone is low on Monday, increasing to moderate on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, the movement and development of the system becomes more uncertain. Current indications are that the system will take a more southwestward track. It may approach the central or southern Queensland coast later in the week, although at this stage it is considered likely to remain offshore. At the same time, atmospheric conditions will become less favourable for a tropical cyclone, and the probability of the system becoming (or remaining) a tropical cyclone decreases to low from Wednesday.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Low
Tuesday:Moderate
Wednesday:Low

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