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#1457101 - 14/03/2018 08:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 480
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I posted earlier about how fast she was travelling yesterday. I have not found anything yet documenting comparison of Australia TC typical movement speeds.

Did find some info on US Hurricanes which noted "The fastest hurricane in the record was Emily in 1987, whose maximum speed reached 110.48 km/hr (59.61 kt or 68.65 mph) as it raced over the North Atlantic, before it turned extratropical." That is travel speed not wind speed....
See: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G16.html
Still looking for any info on Australian TC travel speeds.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1457102 - 14/03/2018 08:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7047
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
next

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#1457103 - 14/03/2018 08:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Veejay Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/03/2014
Posts: 21
Loc: Emerald QLD
Latest sat pic looks like an eye to the north? Is that what happens when you shear the head off?

Jay

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#1457104 - 14/03/2018 08:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1202
Loc: Toowoomba
"Next"!.But won't the same thing happen again? I see one of the models just have it washing out into a trough off the coast. For me, I see this as the least painful scenario, seeing there is no hope of getting any useful rain from it, apart from the coast and hinterland of course.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (14/03/2018 08:55)

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#1457105 - 14/03/2018 08:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5240
I'd expect it to be downgraded to a low very soon after it loses its tropical characteristics.

The most likely scenario (no major impact on SE QLD except for the big surf & gusty winds with showers becoming confined to the coastal fringe & islands by tomorrow) still appears to be holding true.

Here's the latest tech bulletin from the Bureau:


" Tropical Cyclone Linda has continued a south southwest path over the past 12
hours. The system currently lies under northerly deep layer shear of
approximately 30-40 knots.

The system is showing the results of interaction with the higher shear, with the
LLCC displaced to the northeast away from the deepest convection. The deep
convection itself has also shown a marked decrease over the last few hours. The
analysis fix is based off an estimate of the LLCC in relation to the deep
convection. Intensity estimated to be 35 knots, with a large swathe of gales
extending well to the south of the system due to the pressure gradient caused by
the system and the ridge to the south. Dvorak analysis has used a shear pattern
with the LLCC less than 3/4 of a degree from the strong temperature gradient
[though noting convection is rapidly weakening]. DT is 2.5. MET is 1.0 and PAT
is 1.5. The final T of 2.5 was based on the DT. CI held at 3.0 given uncertainty
surrounding position of LLCC and weakening phase.

The system will move into greater deep layer shear associated with an upper
trough over eastern Australia during today. The interaction with this trough is
expected to cause the system to continue to lose its tropical cyclone structure
and transition into a subtropical low pressure system early today, particularly
after confirmation is obtained from visual imagery as to the position of the
LLCC.


Movement has been to the south southwest overnight under the influence of a mid
level ridge to the east, and trough to the west. During today, an easterly
steering influence will likely build to the south of the system, resulting in it
possibly adopting a more southwesterly track. On Thursday this influence should
break down again, and the system should be steered predominantly by a strong
upper trough over Queensland and a mid-level ridge to its east - first
southerly, then potentially southeasterly away from the Queensland coast
depending on the strength of the subtropical low. "


And here's a forecast radar loop for the next 5 days from the HWRF model:



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#1457106 - 14/03/2018 09:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Veejay Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/03/2014
Posts: 21
Loc: Emerald QLD
Thanks Ken

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#1457109 - 14/03/2018 09:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
FXXT01 ADRM 131400
IDY26500

Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC

ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20180313 1200 UTC

Cyc Name Date Time Lat Long C.Pres Max Wind(kts)

LINDA 20180313 1200 -20.1 158.3 995.1 55.6
LINDA 20180313 1800 -20.8 157.3 991.1 55.3
LINDA 20180314 0000 -21.3 156.4 993.9 47.1
LINDA 20180314 0600 -22.1 156.1 994.0 42.8
LINDA 20180314 1200 -22.8 155.8 998.1 41.4
LINDA 20180314 1800 -23.4 155.5 997.2 43.0
LINDA 20180315 0000 -24.3 155.5 1000.4 42.8
LINDA 20180315 0600 -25.2 155.4 998.9 42.8
LINDA 20180315 1200 -25.0 155.8 1003.4 35.0
LINDA 20180315 1800 -25.7 155.6 1003.8 34.0
LINDA 20180316 0000 -25.7 155.4 1007.1 31.0
LINDA 20180316 0600 -25.5 154.9 1006.2 35.1
LINDA 20180316 1200 -25.3 154.3 1009.6 31.7




JTWC
Peeked @ 50kts. 13P LINDA 180313 1800 21.6S 157.8E SHEM 50 990

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#1457113 - 14/03/2018 09:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3379
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Himawari showing a nice little circulation to the north of ex Linda. An eddy or something more substantial?

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#1457114 - 14/03/2018 09:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 79
Loc: Rockhampton
So that's it for the wet season 17/18 then it would seem.

1 TC Linda is being sheared away and tossed away to the graveyard.
2 MJO is losing strength and unlikely to affect norther Australia.
3 A return to ENSO Neutral.

Here's to next season bing more interesting.
Chow for now.

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#1457115 - 14/03/2018 09:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5240
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Himawari showing a nice little circulation to the north of ex Linda. An eddy or something more substantial?

Are you referring to the low level circulation centre of Linda whose top is being torn off by the shear?

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#1457116 - 14/03/2018 09:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3379
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Way further north, NW of New Cal, about halfway to New Guinea, Ken.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (14/03/2018 09:38)

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#1457120 - 14/03/2018 09:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: ifishcq]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: ifishcq
So that's it for the wet season 17/18 then it would seem.

1 TC Linda is being sheared away and tossed away to the graveyard.
2 MJO is losing strength and unlikely to affect norther Australia.
3 A return to ENSO Neutral.

Here's to next season bing more interesting.
Chow for now.


Theres still the rest of March and April left. The MJO could still effect us in april so dont write it off completely and a return to Neutral means very little as the La Nina we had did absolutely nothing for our rainfall. Granted its rare for massive events in April but its not unheard of plus April Cyclones are very possible...the wet season doesnt officially end til April although it can extend to May some years so you just never know.
_________________________
Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1457122 - 14/03/2018 09:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Awkward moment when Linda defies all predictions makes a turn north west...smashes str8 in to cardwell as A cat 5.
_________________________
Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1457123 - 14/03/2018 09:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3156
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Himawari showing a nice little circulation to the north of ex Linda. An eddy or something more substantial?


Interesting GFS picks up a slight circulation at 950hp in its forecast for 10am. It is does not persist for any period of time, and does not extend even above 850hp. GFS seems to show an eddy briefly pinched off the north side of Linda, but the satellite pic looks pretty cool.


Edited by Mike Hauber (14/03/2018 09:59)

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#1457124 - 14/03/2018 10:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7047
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
As one of the biggest pessimists here I would normally say by now that that's the season done...but looking ahead on ext GFS and EC, there still does seem to be something trying to brew near PNG. Whether that eventuates to anything, who really knows, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

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#1457126 - 14/03/2018 10:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Mega]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Mega
As one of the biggest pessimists here I would normally say by now that that's the season done...but looking ahead on ext GFS and EC, there still does seem to be something trying to brew near PNG. Whether that eventuates to anything, who really knows, but it's worth keeping an eye on.


Well I just found it a bit silly to say the wet seasons over when we still have a deepening monsoon trough north of australia and the rest of march and april left. Thats six weeks of the official season.
_________________________
Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1457136 - 14/03/2018 11:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: ifishcq]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4464
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: ifishcq
So that's it for the wet season 17/18 then it would seem.

1 TC Linda is being sheared away and tossed away to the graveyard.
2 MJO is losing strength and unlikely to affect norther Australia.
3 A return to ENSO Neutral.

Here's to next season bing more interesting.
Chow for now.


Recent history and extended GFS would support the assertion this is far less certain than your suggesting.

Extended system has a strong large system headed for the QLD coast at the end of its run and these types of systems have a habit of showing up late in the season over the past decade.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1457196 - 14/03/2018 20:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5240
ACCESS-R hasn't exactly had the best performance with TC's in the past and Linda is no exception.

It even missed the actual position of the LLCC of ex-Linda by hundreds of km in its own analysis run made at 00z this morning (not to mention the fact that it's consistently going for that crazy "approaching the central coast" scenario for days) - these graphics below are courtesy of Weatherzone Layers:





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#1457209 - 15/03/2018 03:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: rainthisway]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1365
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Awkward moment when Linda defies all predictions makes a turn north west...smashes str8 in to cardwell as A cat 5.

What are you smoking ??

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#1457214 - 15/03/2018 08:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: rainthisway]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 79
Loc: Rockhampton
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Originally Posted By: Mega
As one of the biggest pessimists here I would normally say by now that that's the season done...but looking ahead on ext GFS and EC, there still does seem to be something trying to brew near PNG. Whether that eventuates to anything, who really knows, but it's worth keeping an eye on.


Well I just found it a bit silly to say the wet seasons over when we still have a deepening monsoon trough north of australia and the rest of march and april left. Thats six weeks of the official season.



Iím happy to call the wet season over.
Letís now focus on what the winter months might bring, perhaps an ECL or 2

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