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#1456754 - 12/03/2018 12:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
This system is starting to get more organised. The latest JTWC has upgraded its development potential to medium:

Quote:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6S 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.


Shear will play a role in the life of this system. It doesn't look too good for rapid development, or indeed a sustained life once it forms. Here is the latest tendency chart:



Here is the current shear chart:



Edited by Inclement Weather (12/03/2018 13:04)
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#1456759 - 12/03/2018 14:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Hold onto your hats. This system has been upgraded to high with a formation alert issued just 20 minutes ago:

Quote:
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 160.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 695NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 112104Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


It certainly looks to be rapidly organising itself :



Edited by Inclement Weather (12/03/2018 14:26)
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#1456760 - 12/03/2018 14:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Stormwithin Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 150
Ooooo!!!

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#1456763 - 12/03/2018 14:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


It's looks to be already a tropical depression.Shear should clear
out with the angular forward rotation movement.A few degrees shift
in the track would likely bring this onshore for certain and all the moisture with it.

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#1456764 - 12/03/2018 14:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2028
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rossby


It's looks to be already a tropical depression.Shear should clear
out with the angular forward rotation movement.A few degrees shift
in the track would likely bring this onshore for certain and all the moisture with it.


You'd think that ridge to it's south surely would bump it more west than south; hence why models drive it to QLD coast?

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#1456766 - 12/03/2018 14:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6973
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Rossby


It's looks to be already a tropical depression.Shear should clear
out with the angular forward rotation movement.A few degrees shift
in the track would likely bring this onshore for certain and all the moisture with it.


You'd think that ridge to it's south surely would bump it more west than south; hence why models drive it to QLD coast?


Depends really - if it remains shallow then it has a better chance of doing exactly that - into the coast along the lower-mid level ridge as a weak tropical low. IF that happened though, a new upper trough due to rear its ugly head north through QLD on Wednesday will increase VWS anyway, which would likely inhibit further development until it passes or weakens.

Also, does anyone know why 00z GFS is initializing a central pressure of 990hpa as of 10am this morning? That already seems way off the mark to me. The latest ACCESS-R & the German model (ICON) both initialize it much weaker (1000-1002hpa) which seems more accurate to me.

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#1456770 - 12/03/2018 15:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
rainthisway Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I still say anyone tthinking this will cross the coast is really hoping and dreaming. And if it does get strong and cross SEQLD....your be sorry..the damage would be unreal.
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MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1456771 - 12/03/2018 15:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2028
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Given monsoon trough is forecast to redevelop across Northern Aus, will be interesting to see how models deal with that.

Edit: perhaps that upper trough is the monsoon trough; can't see that hurting any TC?


Edited by Kino (12/03/2018 15:13)

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#1456772 - 12/03/2018 15:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6973
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
New UKMET takes it well offshore of the coast now, even further than GFS/CMC. I guess it's finally aligned with its own ensemble members.

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#1456773 - 12/03/2018 15:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
The upper-level divergence for the depression to move bulk
air quickly is key to intensification ie the outflow exhaust chimney really looks ideal when the td drops a little south. That may offset any undercutting shear and allow the tc to RI and build core. Atm i don't see see rapid organising just consolidation.

Good to see some opinions none the less.






.


Edited by Rossby (12/03/2018 15:20)

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#1456775 - 12/03/2018 15:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5129
The only way I can see it impacting SE QLD as a major TC (not a weak low) is if the upstream upper trough isn't as progressive/mobile as currently forecast by a number of models (and therefore allowing a longer window of opportunity for the system to continue drifting SW and maintain intensity - helped by the outflow downstream of the upper trough and delay in the onset of the stronger shear despite the more marginal upper ocean heat content further south).

Something I'd still put in the "unlikely but not impossible" category since a number of models have had trouble accurately forecasting the amplitude and speed of approaching upper troughs in the past.

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#1456777 - 12/03/2018 15:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1786
Loc: Kingaroy
I watched a documentary once about a strong TC hitting Hervey Bay, it would be quite messy.

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#1456778 - 12/03/2018 15:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I like your thoughts Ken. I don't know how many times I have seen modeled 985hPa end up being much lower and vice-versa. I don't know how many times I have seen us all surprised with the outcomes of systems, traveling further, intensifying, washing out etc. Why would this one be any different. Hope something decent comes out of it. SE QLD has always been in the firing line in the past maybe this is the one.
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#1456782 - 12/03/2018 15:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
What we do know ken is is a tc can at the lest hold intensity
at the same latitude as south New Caledonia then they tend to weaken rapidly or undergo barclinic intensification due to interaction with upper level troughs and fronts.

No way i'am i implying a severe tc with a organised core still in track come ashore in the south QLD region.


Have not looked today @ukmet ens did read above the deterministc
track has shifted east with the ens. Odd really most ens always
usually shift to the deterministic track not away.


Edited by Rossby (12/03/2018 15:58)

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#1456784 - 12/03/2018 16:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Yes, it's such a dynamic setup. There are so many variables. The latest
GFS has it tracking further west with each run. As you've said Ken, it only takes a delay in the arrival or change in the strength of the upper trough for things to move further along. The shear charts look like an obstacle course at the moment, but I've seen shear subside like the parting of the Red Sea before. An interesting one to watch though.
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#1456785 - 12/03/2018 16:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3122
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Had a TC back in 03 with a similar track as this and it never made landfall it steered away to the SE a couple of hundred Ks from shore and weakened. Thats the closest Ive been to a TC.

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#1456786 - 12/03/2018 16:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5129
Originally Posted By: Rossby
What we do know ken is is a tc can at the lest how intensity
at the same latitude as south New Caledonia then they tend to weaken rapidly or undergo barclinic intensification due to interaction with upper level troughs and fronts.

No way i'am i implying a severe tc with a organised core still in track come ashore in the south QLD region.

Have not looked today @ukmet ens did read above the deterministc
track has shifted east with the ens. Odd really most ens always
usually shift to the deterministic track not away.


Never thought you were implying that anyway smile

Over the years, I've often found that members of many single model ensembles tend to be more indicative of the behaviour of their deterministic version of the relevant model rather than reflecting a more realistic "true" spread of scenarios even though ensembles use sophisticated techniques like bred vectors to perturb their members.
For example, when say deterministic GFS has been showing a strong tendency for a TC to hit the central coast then suddenly changes it to the north tropical coast in a subsequent run, most of its ensemble members tend to follow (even if other models haven't changed much).
There are exceptions of course depending on the model and the setup where ensemble members deviate significantly away from their deterministic counterpart but happens less often than not.

Although I prefer using lagged multi-model ensembles, I still find single model ensembles useful in getting a general idea of uncertainty levels.

As for SE QLD, I still think it's more unlikely than likely re a major TC impact (rather than a weak low). Unless the upstream upper trough is less progressive than forecast, the system would have to get through a massive wall of strong shear (and marginal SST's) to get here intact, let alone not be steered away back out to sea.

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#1456787 - 12/03/2018 16:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6973
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Only a matter of time before NAVGEM & ACCESS align with GFS, EC, CMC, UK etc imo.

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#1456788 - 12/03/2018 16:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
ianee123 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 65
Loc: Gladstone, QLD
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
I watched a documentary once about a strong TC hitting Hervey Bay, it would be quite messy.


Would you be able to remember the name of that documentary by any chance Chris? I would be very interested to watch it myself. Cheers,

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#1456790 - 12/03/2018 16:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


00z GEFS members tight cluster cutting close.Still worth watching
for interest and shift trends.

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