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#1457014 - 13/03/2018 18:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2455
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Ugh, it looks like Linda has had a night on MDMA.

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#1457015 - 13/03/2018 18:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
ER waves are more important as triggers for TC formation rather than steering an already formed TC.

Also,when this morning's state forecast was created, the data from the 12z EC run that shows that system curving to the south would've only just started coming in and even then, the data for all the forecast days wouldn't have come in yet (typically finishes by just before 5pm). Add the fact that major edits arenít always made to the state forecast depending on time of issue, run to run consistency or lack thereof



As always Ken, a wealth of knowledge and information. smile

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#1457017 - 13/03/2018 18:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: sharjay]
Stevo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 90
Loc: The Gap
Originally Posted By: sharjay
Originally Posted By: Stevo
Linda is born.

and a certain facebook page has gone nuts...people panicking and commenting they are heading out to supermarkets to stock up and it only got posted 15 minutes ago.
ha two guesses who

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#1457018 - 13/03/2018 18:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Weary Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1069
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
Cyclones aren't really that difficult to predict given the technology we have available now ~Thomash
Direct quote by that FB page, Really??


Edited by Weary (13/03/2018 18:46)
_________________________
Love petrichor

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#1457019 - 13/03/2018 18:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Higgins or taylor?
_________________________
Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1457020 - 13/03/2018 18:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
DIANE MOON Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/02/2011
Posts: 42
Loc: SE QLD, Australia.
_________________________
Excuse me, I'm just learning!

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#1457021 - 13/03/2018 18:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0722 UTC 13/03/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Linda
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.3S
Longitude: 159.5E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [193 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [32 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 13/1200: 20.2S 158.4E: 050 [095]: 040 [075]: 994
+12: 13/1800: 20.8S 157.4E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 992
+18: 14/0000: 21.6S 156.4E: 075 [145]: 040 [075]: 992
+24: 14/0600: 22.3S 155.9E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 14/1800: 24.3S 155.5E: 110 [200]: 030 [055]: 997
+48: 15/0600: 26.2S 155.9E: 130 [235]: 030 [055]: 996
+60: 15/1800: 27.6S 156.7E: 150 [275]: 030 [055]: 995
+72: 16/0600: 28.4S 158.0E: 165 [305]: 030 [055]: 994
+96: 17/0600: : : :
+120: 18/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Linda has steadily developed during the past 24 hours. The system currently lies under northerly deep layer shear of approximately 15-20 knots, and this is evident in the distribution of deep convection around the system. There is also evidence of dry air wrapping around the northern side of the system. Despite this, the system has maintained banding and convection near the centre through today.

Intensity is estimated at 35 knots [10 minute mean]. Dvorak analysis has used acurved band pattern averaging a 0.6 to 0.7 wrap during the previous few hours.

DT is 3.0. MET is 1.5 and PAT is 2.0. The final T was based on the DT. This estimate is supported by the morning ASCAT pass suggested marginal gales extending through the eastern and southern quadrants.

Movement has been to the south during the past 24 hours under the influence of a mid level ridge to the east, and trough to the west. During the next 24 hours, an easterly steering influence will build to the south of the system and it should adopt a more southwesterly track. On Thursday this influence should break down again, and the system will be steered predominantly by the mid-level ridge
to the east - first southerly, then southeasterly away from the Queensland coast.

Development is expected to be slow or nonexistent during the next 24 hours. The system will move into greater deep layer shear associated with an upper trough over eastern Australia. The interaction with this trough is expected to cause the system to lose its tropical cyclone structure and transition into a subtropical low pressure system later on Wednesday.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

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#1457023 - 13/03/2018 18:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Weary Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1069
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Higgins or taylor?

Higgins
_________________________
Love petrichor

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#1457025 - 13/03/2018 19:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Hehe



smile

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#1457027 - 13/03/2018 19:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1643
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a time lapse of Himawari satellite images for the last 24 hours and updates every 30 minutes. She is a bit of an non-discript blob at the moment.

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-QLD.aspx
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1457028 - 13/03/2018 19:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Weary]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Weary
Cyclones aren't really that difficult to predict given the technology we have available now ~Thomash
Direct quote by that FB page, Really??



If they're not that difficult to predict, then I guess the same applies to Financial Markets as well. What a crackup.

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#1457030 - 13/03/2018 19:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 149
Loc: Roma, Qld
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Weary
Cyclones aren't really that difficult to predict given the technology we have available now ~Thomash
Direct quote by that FB page, Really??



If they're not that difficult to predict, then I guess the same applies to Financial Markets as well. What a crackup.


I grabbed a few even better ones and posted them in the General Weather Social Media thread......

Perfect timing, I also found this today

https://www.accc.gov.au/about-us/inquiries/digital-platforms-inquiry/issues-paper



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#1457031 - 13/03/2018 19:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3207
Loc: Buderim
Well defined eye visible on colour enhanced IR, but not at all visible on grey scale. (BOM Himawari)

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#1457034 - 13/03/2018 19:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
sharjay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 989
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Weary
Cyclones aren't really that difficult to predict given the technology we have available now ~Thomash
Direct quote by that FB page, Really??



If they're not that difficult to predict, then I guess the same applies to Financial Markets as well. What a crackup.

and if they're not difficult to predict, why hasn't he got a firm conclusion on it instead of recent comment of "it may or may not cross the coast between brisbane and rockhampton"

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#1457035 - 13/03/2018 19:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1546
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I tell you what is totally predictable.....................Higgins smile
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1457037 - 13/03/2018 20:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1013
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I tell you what is totally predictable.....................Higgins smile


The only consolation with scaremongering is that he ends up spending countless hours replying, via private message and on his forum, to the concerns of subscribers who are clueless yet bamboozled and sometimes genuinely frightened by rainbow coloured images and track maps of a possible Armageddon that look very scary to them..!...you reap what you sow Higgins you greedy fool..!..

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#1457038 - 13/03/2018 20:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
Hey Mods, this one needs a name change.

ta,
Fuj

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#1457039 - 13/03/2018 20:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 507
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Speed at 32 kph seems fast. Is this related to expectation that she will live short life?


Edited by Flowin (13/03/2018 20:17)

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#1457042 - 13/03/2018 20:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3423
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Maybe she is trying to beat that trough?

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#1457043 - 13/03/2018 20:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Needs to do 45-50km/h to beat the trough.
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Records are MEANT to be broken.

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