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#1456568 - 10/03/2018 22:12 Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018
Dan101 Offline
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Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
A few sneaky images to kick off the discussion.

EC deterministic currently going for a Central Coast (approx. Mackay) crossing,

GFS going for a more southerly SE coast-skimming solution (no crossing).

UKMET similar to EC but dipping south and crossing around St Lawrence.

Models which push the system onto the coast show it as a LOW or low-end Cat 1.

EC Ensemble members:


UKMET:


GEFS:


NAVGEM:


Edited by Mick10 (13/03/2018 22:58)

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#1456580 - 10/03/2018 23:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
snowmad Offline
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Registered: 20/06/2005
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Loc: Bowen
Starting to fire up on MTSAT loop run around the Solomons. Next few days will be of interest to see when the system makes westward turn and how fast the ridge builds to the south to push it west. The Coral Sea is always full of surprises have see many early progs for weak cyclones turn into severe systems in under 48 hrs.

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#1456581 - 10/03/2018 23:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: snowmad]
Squeako_88 Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2005
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Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: snowmad
Starting to fire up on MTSAT loop run around the Solomons. Next few days will be of interest to see when the system makes westward turn and how fast the ridge builds to the south to push it west. The Coral Sea is always full of surprises have see many early progs for weak cyclones turn into severe systems in under 48 hrs.


STC Marcia is a good example of this!
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#1456585 - 10/03/2018 23:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Dan101 Offline
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Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: snowmad
Starting to fire up on MTSAT loop run around the Solomons. Next few days will be of interest to see when the system makes westward turn and how fast the ridge builds to the south to push it west. The Coral Sea is always full of surprises have see many early progs for weak cyclones turn into severe systems in under 48 hrs.


STC Marcia is a good example of this!


Agree! I believe Marcia also had an Equatorial Rossby wave up her tail too, like this one will. Could get interesting.


Edited by Dan101 (10/03/2018 23:49)

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#1456589 - 11/03/2018 00:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
bundybear Offline
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Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2291
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Personally. I dont want any systems unless they are going to hit Brisvegas and I really won't mind if a few pollies get taken out by it.

I have had enough rain to last me for another few months. The only good thing about a system is it might help to dry out the Cape so I can go on my well deserved holiday I have planned.

Unfortunately I will instead be ready, as usual, for what ever mother nature decides to send my way. Prepared, not panicked.

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#1456591 - 11/03/2018 01:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
rainthisway Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Going by ec ensemble it could hit anywhere along tge qld coast hehe
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#1456598 - 11/03/2018 08:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Latest BOM State forecast says it might move onto central or southern coasts Thurs onwards with a high degree of uncertainty.
Models going for a bypass though. I suppose nothing is certain until a couple days prior?

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#1456607 - 11/03/2018 09:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
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Loc: The Beach.
It's interesting that EC has joined GFS and CMC in keeping it off the coast in its run last night . GFS has been keeping it off the coast for 5 days now.
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#1456610 - 11/03/2018 09:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: ColdFront]
Dan101 Offline
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Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
It's interesting that EC has joined GFS and CMC in keeping it off the coast in its run last night . GFS has been keeping it off the coast for 5 days now.

As has UKMET, looking less and less likely that weíll see a coastal crossing. Guess that upper ridge is not kicking in soon enough or not as strong as originally forecast.

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#1456613 - 11/03/2018 10:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Loc: Kingaroy
The Equatorial Rossby Wave might kick it back to the west, maybe that is the Bureau's thinking.

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#1456618 - 11/03/2018 10:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
ER waves are more important as triggers for TC formation rather than steering an already formed TC.

Also,when this morning's state forecast was created, the data from the 12z EC run that shows that system curving to the south would've only just started coming in and even then, the data for all the forecast days wouldn't have come in yet (typically finishes by just before 5pm). Add the fact that major edits arenít always made to the state forecast depending on time of issue, run to run consistency or lack thereof

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#1456620 - 11/03/2018 10:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
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European models two systems from the gyre.

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#1456625 - 11/03/2018 11:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
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Originally Posted By: Rossby


European models two systems from the gyre.


90P is the western invest one of two embedded within a very broad monsoon gyre circulation encompassing much the Solomon sea.

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#1456626 - 11/03/2018 11:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for posting map Rossby, nice view of the planets weather systems.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (11/03/2018 11:37)

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#1456630 - 11/03/2018 12:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
snowmad Offline
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Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 917
Loc: Bowen
BOM Access model and METEYE analysis pushing system as a weakening cyclone/low onto central coast while latest EC and GFS have it heading towards SEQ. I often notice with GFS regarding Solomon's systems that it almost always seems to head them towards SEQ in early days before each run then shifts it back north. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be more interesting when this system is better formed and real time movements and Obs come into play.Lots of factors being crunched at the moment on this girl.

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#1456642 - 11/03/2018 13:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
So whats her name? ;~}

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#1456673 - 11/03/2018 17:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3303
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Good question as it could be outside of AAOR or inside. What are thoughts of when, where and if this TL develops into a TC?

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#1456679 - 11/03/2018 18:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Latest suggestion from the UK ensemble (MOGREPS) has most members currently keeping the Solomon Islands system out to sea while an outlier brings it onto the coast:



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#1456680 - 11/03/2018 19:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7860
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
OMG at latest EC is that a CAT 4 hitting Brisbane. Arghh nooooo. Our news filled with weeks of QLD doom.
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#1456681 - 11/03/2018 19:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
CycloneTim Offline
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Registered: 12/01/2015
Posts: 30
Loc: Mackay

A broad area of low pressure over the Solomon Islands in the northeastern Coral Sea is expected to consolidate into a tropical low during the next 12 to 24 hours. This low is then expected to move southward until about Tuesday, and may develop further during this period. The probability of this low developing into a tropical cyclone is low on Monday, increasing to moderate on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, the movement and development of the system becomes more uncertain. Current indications are that the system will take a more southwestward track. It may approach the central or southern Queensland coast later in the week, although at this stage it is considered likely to remain offshore. At the same time, atmospheric conditions will become less favourable for a tropical cyclone, and the probability of the system becoming (or remaining) a tropical cyclone decreases to low from Wednesday.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Low
Tuesday:Moderate
Wednesday:Low

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#1456682 - 11/03/2018 19:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7860
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Phew. Thanks Cyclone Tim. Cause the models have been so accurate this year it's sure to miss then. Haha
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#1456683 - 11/03/2018 19:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Wrasse42 Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2013
Posts: 324
Loc: Gladstone, Queensland
Wow to be uncertain of movements beyond 2 days shows the steering mechanics arenít set in concrete, will be interesting next couple of days for sure. Media is going to town with this one lol.

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#1456684 - 11/03/2018 19:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7860
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Just stock up on milk, bread, water and baked beans now just to be safe. Oh and toilet paper.
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#1456685 - 11/03/2018 19:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Popeye]
CycloneTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/01/2015
Posts: 30
Loc: Mackay
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Phew. Thanks Cyclone Tim. Cause the models have been so accurate this year it's sure to miss then. Haha


all good smile

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#1456688 - 11/03/2018 19:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Latest suggestion from the UK ensemble (MOGREPS) has most members currently keeping the Solomon Islands system out to sea while an outlier brings it onto the coast:





link for the above plot.
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/


Its a good idea to look at ens trends.

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#1456689 - 11/03/2018 19:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3303
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Originally Posted By: Popeye
OMG at latest EC is that a CAT 4 hitting Brisbane. Arghh nooooo. Our news filled with weeks of QLD doom.


Classic Popeye, you should start your own FB weather page.

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#1456691 - 11/03/2018 20:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7860
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Already have. But just like to stir you lot. To let a year pass with no Popeye stirring QLders would be sad. Its just taken this long for something to happen. I guess NZ is the new QLD. They get all yours this year.
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#1456692 - 11/03/2018 20:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Synoptic Offline
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Registered: 06/03/2011
Posts: 75
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: Popeye
OMG at latest EC is that a CAT 4 hitting Brisbane. Arghh nooooo. Our news filled with weeks of QLD doom.


And just before the Commonwealth Games too!

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#1456697 - 11/03/2018 21:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
That's not a outliner track ken (UKMEY) that is the actual deterministic track.




https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?stm=90P.2018&dtg=2018031100

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#1456698 - 11/03/2018 21:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Originally Posted By: Rossby
That's not a outliner track ken (UKMEY) that is the actual deterministic track.

I know Rossby, but I was referring to it being an outlier in the context of the general tracks/consensus of the perturbed members of the ensemble.

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#1456699 - 11/03/2018 21:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Mathew Offline
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Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I am thinking it's is a Townsville hit.

We will see who right or not right and way if that play out.


Just an little note there are two Tropical low.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html


Edited by Mathew (11/03/2018 21:26)
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 740.4mm > 52.62mm - 113.22mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 26.1mm month 60.6mm / 12.9mm

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#1456700 - 11/03/2018 21:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Mathew]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Yes the 2nd comes later ec has been showing it on the cyclone
model past few days. GfS also has it.

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#1456701 - 11/03/2018 21:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Mathew Offline
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Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Yep it's sure have.

Any things is Possible that the main things.


Edited by Mathew (11/03/2018 21:59)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 740.4mm > 52.62mm - 113.22mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 26.1mm month 60.6mm / 12.9mm

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#1456702 - 11/03/2018 22:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 568
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Popeye
I guess NZ is the new QLD. They get all yours this year.


Can't deny that observation, NZ TC magnet working over time this season.

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#1456714 - 11/03/2018 23:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71

GFS 2 storms same as ec



UKMET

Bare in mind these are sshs 1min scale I'm not expecting any formation of 90P for atleast 48hrs. Good luck with it guys.

back to my 3rd world country

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#1456731 - 12/03/2018 09:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Mathew]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: Mathew
I am thinking it's is a Townsville hit.

We will see who right or not right and way if that play out.


Just an little note there are two Tropical low.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html


Considering theres no model showing that, I highly doubt it will go anywhere near us.


Edited by rainthisway (12/03/2018 09:38)
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#1456746 - 12/03/2018 11:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7860
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Wow I was expecting to come in here to see some good discussions. Oh Well there is always 2019. poke
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#1456747 - 12/03/2018 11:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Popeye]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4166
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Wow I was expecting to come in here to see some good discussions. Oh Well there is always 2019. poke


Um, weren't you moving to the action capital of Australia? Tasmania? evillaugh poke grin
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#1456751 - 12/03/2018 12:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1837
Loc: Kingaroy
All we can do now is wait and see, the track and intensity of the Coral Sea low is still uncertain. The current models are starting to show a shift back towards the west.

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#1456753 - 12/03/2018 12:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
GFS has started to shift West since yesterday with closest approach point to SE QLD now considerably closer than the 18Z run yesterday.

A similar shift further West again would place the system on the coast.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1456754 - 12/03/2018 12:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5242
Loc: Diamond Valley
This system is starting to get more organised. The latest JTWC has upgraded its development potential to medium:

Quote:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6S 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.


Shear will play a role in the life of this system. It doesn't look too good for rapid development, or indeed a sustained life once it forms. Here is the latest tendency chart:



Here is the current shear chart:



Edited by Inclement Weather (12/03/2018 13:04)
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#1456759 - 12/03/2018 14:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5242
Loc: Diamond Valley
Hold onto your hats. This system has been upgraded to high with a formation alert issued just 20 minutes ago:

Quote:
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 160.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 695NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 112104Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


It certainly looks to be rapidly organising itself :



Edited by Inclement Weather (12/03/2018 14:26)
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#1456760 - 12/03/2018 14:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Stormwithin Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 151
Ooooo!!!

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#1456763 - 12/03/2018 14:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


It's looks to be already a tropical depression.Shear should clear
out with the angular forward rotation movement.A few degrees shift
in the track would likely bring this onshore for certain and all the moisture with it.

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#1456764 - 12/03/2018 14:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rossby


It's looks to be already a tropical depression.Shear should clear
out with the angular forward rotation movement.A few degrees shift
in the track would likely bring this onshore for certain and all the moisture with it.


You'd think that ridge to it's south surely would bump it more west than south; hence why models drive it to QLD coast?

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#1456766 - 12/03/2018 14:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Rossby


It's looks to be already a tropical depression.Shear should clear
out with the angular forward rotation movement.A few degrees shift
in the track would likely bring this onshore for certain and all the moisture with it.


You'd think that ridge to it's south surely would bump it more west than south; hence why models drive it to QLD coast?


Depends really - if it remains shallow then it has a better chance of doing exactly that - into the coast along the lower-mid level ridge as a weak tropical low. IF that happened though, a new upper trough due to rear its ugly head north through QLD on Wednesday will increase VWS anyway, which would likely inhibit further development until it passes or weakens.

Also, does anyone know why 00z GFS is initializing a central pressure of 990hpa as of 10am this morning? That already seems way off the mark to me. The latest ACCESS-R & the German model (ICON) both initialize it much weaker (1000-1002hpa) which seems more accurate to me.

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#1456770 - 12/03/2018 15:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
I still say anyone tthinking this will cross the coast is really hoping and dreaming. And if it does get strong and cross SEQLD....your be sorry..the damage would be unreal.
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#1456771 - 12/03/2018 15:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Given monsoon trough is forecast to redevelop across Northern Aus, will be interesting to see how models deal with that.

Edit: perhaps that upper trough is the monsoon trough; can't see that hurting any TC?


Edited by Kino (12/03/2018 15:13)

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#1456772 - 12/03/2018 15:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
New UKMET takes it well offshore of the coast now, even further than GFS/CMC. I guess it's finally aligned with its own ensemble members.

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#1456773 - 12/03/2018 15:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
The upper-level divergence for the depression to move bulk
air quickly is key to intensification ie the outflow exhaust chimney really looks ideal when the td drops a little south. That may offset any undercutting shear and allow the tc to RI and build core. Atm i don't see see rapid organising just consolidation.

Good to see some opinions none the less.






.


Edited by Rossby (12/03/2018 15:20)

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#1456775 - 12/03/2018 15:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
The only way I can see it impacting SE QLD as a major TC (not a weak low) is if the upstream upper trough isn't as progressive/mobile as currently forecast by a number of models (and therefore allowing a longer window of opportunity for the system to continue drifting SW and maintain intensity - helped by the outflow downstream of the upper trough and delay in the onset of the stronger shear despite the more marginal upper ocean heat content further south).

Something I'd still put in the "unlikely but not impossible" category since a number of models have had trouble accurately forecasting the amplitude and speed of approaching upper troughs in the past.

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#1456777 - 12/03/2018 15:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
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Loc: Kingaroy
I watched a documentary once about a strong TC hitting Hervey Bay, it would be quite messy.

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#1456778 - 12/03/2018 15:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7860
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I like your thoughts Ken. I don't know how many times I have seen modeled 985hPa end up being much lower and vice-versa. I don't know how many times I have seen us all surprised with the outcomes of systems, traveling further, intensifying, washing out etc. Why would this one be any different. Hope something decent comes out of it. SE QLD has always been in the firing line in the past maybe this is the one.
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#1456782 - 12/03/2018 15:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
What we do know ken is is a tc can at the lest hold intensity
at the same latitude as south New Caledonia then they tend to weaken rapidly or undergo barclinic intensification due to interaction with upper level troughs and fronts.

No way i'am i implying a severe tc with a organised core still in track come ashore in the south QLD region.


Have not looked today @ukmet ens did read above the deterministc
track has shifted east with the ens. Odd really most ens always
usually shift to the deterministic track not away.


Edited by Rossby (12/03/2018 15:58)

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#1456784 - 12/03/2018 16:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5242
Loc: Diamond Valley
Yes, it's such a dynamic setup. There are so many variables. The latest
GFS has it tracking further west with each run. As you've said Ken, it only takes a delay in the arrival or change in the strength of the upper trough for things to move further along. The shear charts look like an obstacle course at the moment, but I've seen shear subside like the parting of the Red Sea before. An interesting one to watch though.
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#1456785 - 12/03/2018 16:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3303
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Had a TC back in 03 with a similar track as this and it never made landfall it steered away to the SE a couple of hundred Ks from shore and weakened. Thats the closest Ive been to a TC.

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#1456786 - 12/03/2018 16:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Originally Posted By: Rossby
What we do know ken is is a tc can at the lest how intensity
at the same latitude as south New Caledonia then they tend to weaken rapidly or undergo barclinic intensification due to interaction with upper level troughs and fronts.

No way i'am i implying a severe tc with a organised core still in track come ashore in the south QLD region.

Have not looked today @ukmet ens did read above the deterministc
track has shifted east with the ens. Odd really most ens always
usually shift to the deterministic track not away.


Never thought you were implying that anyway smile

Over the years, I've often found that members of many single model ensembles tend to be more indicative of the behaviour of their deterministic version of the relevant model rather than reflecting a more realistic "true" spread of scenarios even though ensembles use sophisticated techniques like bred vectors to perturb their members.
For example, when say deterministic GFS has been showing a strong tendency for a TC to hit the central coast then suddenly changes it to the north tropical coast in a subsequent run, most of its ensemble members tend to follow (even if other models haven't changed much).
There are exceptions of course depending on the model and the setup where ensemble members deviate significantly away from their deterministic counterpart but happens less often than not.

Although I prefer using lagged multi-model ensembles, I still find single model ensembles useful in getting a general idea of uncertainty levels.

As for SE QLD, I still think it's more unlikely than likely re a major TC impact (rather than a weak low). Unless the upstream upper trough is less progressive than forecast, the system would have to get through a massive wall of strong shear (and marginal SST's) to get here intact, let alone not be steered away back out to sea.

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#1456787 - 12/03/2018 16:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Only a matter of time before NAVGEM & ACCESS align with GFS, EC, CMC, UK etc imo.

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#1456788 - 12/03/2018 16:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
ianee123 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 65
Loc: Gladstone, QLD
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
I watched a documentary once about a strong TC hitting Hervey Bay, it would be quite messy.


Would you be able to remember the name of that documentary by any chance Chris? I would be very interested to watch it myself. Cheers,

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#1456790 - 12/03/2018 16:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


00z GEFS members tight cluster cutting close.Still worth watching
for interest and shift trends.

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#1456791 - 12/03/2018 16:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: ianee123]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1837
Loc: Kingaroy
I think it was on Quantum or World Around Us years ago, Hervey Bay's geography could set up a massive storm surge if a cyclone were to hit there.

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#1456792 - 12/03/2018 16:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1575
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I have seen many cat 3 and 4's east off Brisbane on their way south so i wouldn't rule out that at all. That is one day Brisbane will be hit by a cat 3 or 4, one day. But for this one, i don't think i will have a smile on my face until tomorrow afternoon. Not too sure what this one will do at all until then. But it will be motoring through the coral sea to get here by Wednesday, really motoring. Don't like fast moving cyclones as they tend to burn out pretty quick.
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#1456793 - 12/03/2018 16:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1238
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
So why arent the media broadcasting the end of se qld by now. Or have they been told to shut up
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#1456795 - 12/03/2018 16:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
tsunami Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1238
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Might whip down to supermarket to top up today
If brodcast tommorrow supermarkets will be hell
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#1456796 - 12/03/2018 16:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3303
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Sorry all in my earlier post the TC I was referring too was in the 04/05 season TC Kerry. I recall the wind was pretty wild in Nerang.

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#1456802 - 12/03/2018 17:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 465
Loc: Highgate Hill Brisvegas
Really learning from the posts today, it's like being at Cyclone Uni. Everyone's input adds to a constantly evolving big picture, and for me the processes of TC formation, steering and intensity becomes less mysterious and more logical. Thank you everyone for sharing your knowledge.This is what Weatherzone Forum is all about.😁

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#1456805 - 12/03/2018 17:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Stormwithin Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 151
Latest outlook from BoM:

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 12 March 2018
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 15 March 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

At 12pm EST Monday, a tropical low was located south of the Solomon Islands in the northeastern Coral Sea, moving south at 20 km/h. The low is expected to adopt a more south-southwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours, and may develop further during this period. The probability of this low developing into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday is moderate.

The system may approach the central or southern Queensland coast on Wednesday or Thursday. At this stage it is considered likely to remain offshore. Atmospheric conditions will become less favourable for a tropical cyclone, and the probability of the system becoming (or remaining) a tropical cyclone decreases to low from Wednesday.

Although the low is unlikely to be a tropical cyclone by this time, it will remain a significant system and is likely to produce large waves on exposed southern Queensland beaches late in the week.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:Moderate
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Re media: There's not much to report on 🤷 No flood watch has been issued, at this stage. That MAY change tomorrow.

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#1456807 - 12/03/2018 18:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
A number of the models including the often-reliable HWRF still going for that offshore scenario on the 00z track guidance:



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#1456822 - 12/03/2018 19:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: tsunami]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2291
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Might whip down to supermarket to top up today
If brodcast tommorrow supermarkets will be hell


You better go now. The news is out.
http://auswf.com/breaking-news-cyclone-linda-forming-off-qld-coast/

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#1456823 - 12/03/2018 19:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
90P is looking healthy on satpic likely it will ramp up overnight as the atmosphere cools and it takes full advantage of the lift and excellent upper-level divergence.



Edited by Rossby (12/03/2018 19:22)

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#1456826 - 12/03/2018 19:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1238
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Supermarket all done
Didnt need much but least we dont need to go near it tommorrow
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#1456831 - 12/03/2018 19:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
ianee123 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 65
Loc: Gladstone, QLD
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
I think it was on Quantum or World Around Us years ago, Hervey Bay's geography could set up a massive storm surge if a cyclone were to hit there.

Cheers, Chris. I'll do a lil' research and see if I can find it.

Please come visit Gladstone Linda...Pleeease.

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#1456832 - 12/03/2018 19:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Then make your way S, slowly!
Thank you.

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#1456844 - 12/03/2018 20:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: tsunami]
sharjay Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 1000
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
Originally Posted By: tsunami
So why arent the media broadcasting the end of se qld by now. Or have they been told to shut up

I know of a certain facebook page that are broadcasting it loud & clear. Just read the "panic" it is causing already and people are even bagging Nitso's facebook posts right down to his credibility because of the "font" he uses, which by the way is the font on the ladies phone that posted his post. Unreal...guess it's good reading for a laugh after a crappy day.
At least I know I can come here and get the real facts from credible people. Anyway, will keep lurking in the background here and see what this system does with interest. Thanks for the informed posts guys.

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#1456850 - 12/03/2018 21:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1575
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Currently the consensus is a move toward the coast then curving away. I haven't seen any evidence that it will come close to crossing. Quietly, i really want it to cross the coast and smash us, but wishful thinking smile
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#1456852 - 12/03/2018 21:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Steven Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2165
Loc: 中国上૲...
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Had a TC back in 03 with a similar track as this and it never made landfall it steered away to the SE a couple of hundred Ks from shore and weakened. Thats the closest Ive been to a TC.


That system during 2003 passed more than 500km away from Brisbane and caused high waves/dangerous surf all along the SE Qld coastline. If my memory is correct, there was a report of very high waves near the Gold Coast that day.

The weather in Brisbane was very windy/wet.
The point is, weather can extend long distances from the centre of tropical lows. It may not cause much damage but can still affect areas quite some distance from the centre

Follow up: That system was during 2004
I remember hearing a report of a freak 17m wave near the Gold Coast Seaway during that event. At high tide some water from high waves made it onto the road next to the beach.


Edited by Steven (12/03/2018 21:37)

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#1456854 - 12/03/2018 21:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Steven]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2262
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
A lot will depend on the strength of this developing system. Access-G still has a weak tropical low washing out over CQ compared to the stronger systems elsewhere.

Still don't think landfall is likely but still enough unpredictable variables to keep it interesting until the moment of truth.

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#1456855 - 12/03/2018 21:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
This cyclone is forecast by GFS to get about 100km of the coast and is a fairly large system.

It will put massive ways and some amount of storm surge onto the coast at a time when the tides will be fairly big.

Even if it doesn't cross the coast this will have an impact in terms of heavy beach erosion.

That is if it follows GFS forecasts.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1456858 - 12/03/2018 22:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 568
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
It seems consensus of models and respected opinions is not favouring landfall.
As Locke points out some coastal effects may be expected.
It is at least interesting, and better than no activity at all.
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#1456860 - 12/03/2018 22:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25334
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Flowin

It is at least interesting, and better than no activity at all.


not really, those of us north of the low are going to stuck with fine, dry and hot weather when we want a bit more rain before the season is over, esp for those on the central coast.
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November 2018 total - 25.0mm (58mm)
December 2018 total - 107.4mm (125mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 984.8mm (1107mm)

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#1456861 - 12/03/2018 22:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Must be past my bedtime. I meant to say massive waves.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1456868 - 12/03/2018 22:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 462
Loc: Elimbah 4516
By my calculations, using GFS as a guide. The upper trough looks likely to enforce the QLD cyclone shield around 4pm-7pm Wednesday. If this system was to somehow get it's running shoes going, From it's current it needs to average 35km/hour for the next 42 hours to reach the coast before the shield takes hold.
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#1456869 - 12/03/2018 23:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: Flowin

It is at least interesting, and better than no activity at all.


not really, those of us north of the low are going to stuck with fine, dry and hot weather when we want a bit more rain before the season is over, esp for those on the central coast.


Couldn't agree more, Mick.

Also, just posting for the record books, always good to look back and see which models performed well (if any!) smile





Not to forget our last glimmers of hope with NAVGEM and ACCESS still being stubborn on the CQ approach/crossing with a LOW smile (German model ICON also currently forecasting this scenario)




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#1456872 - 13/03/2018 00:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Steven Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2165
Loc: 中国上૲...
GFS 1200Z has slightly shifted this system closer to SE Qld during Wednesday/Thursday and then sharply curves the system eastwards out to sea

If this scenario did occur:
GFS forecast has it below tropical cyclone strength (tropical storm strength)
Damaging wind gusts of 90-125 km/hr though in exposed/elevated areas they could get to destructive strength
Massive waves would affect the coastline south of Fraser Island
Bad beach erosion
Minimum rainfall with most precipitation at sea east of the system

Brisbane City is inland - away from the exposed coastline
mostof the damage would be confined to the coastline and elevated areas

There are many variables at play and the final outcome may be quite different
Tropical weather and tropical cyclones at Australia are the most unpredictable in the world...


Updated: Brisbane high tide Thursday morning is at 8.23am
Low lying flooding could be possible near high tide mostly affecting bike paths and well known troublespots.


Edited by Steven (13/03/2018 01:05)

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#1456873 - 13/03/2018 01:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
buster Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2006
Posts: 438
Loc: Kalbar (near Boonah) SEQ
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I have seen many cat 3 and 4's east off Brisbane on their way south so i wouldn't rule out that at all. That is one day Brisbane will be hit by a cat 3 or 4, one day.


You know Paul, I would have said exactly the same thing an hour ago but you got me wondering so I've just had a really good look at the available historical cyclone track maps for the South Pacific basin (on Michael Bath's excellent page at http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/index.html). It's well worth exploring. It seems that in the last 30 years there have been about 30x category 2s and 15x category 3s at Brisbane's latitude in the Pacific, I can only find 1 category 4 (the breathtaking Pam from March 2015). If you go back further through the BOMs available historical tracks there are only 2 other cat.4s that have made it south of Fraser Island (Dinah in 1967 and Zoe in 1974). Of course that is only since they started to map the severity of cyclones properly in the mid 60s so I'm not saying there haven't been plenty of others through the ages just that really they are as scarce as hen's teeth. Only a single cat 3. has ever been categorically proven to have crossed the SEQ coast from East to West since records began, the un-named beast of February 1954. Interestingly of those 15 Pacific basin cat.3s in the last 30 years at Brisbane's Latitude I was talking about earlier, only 2 have has any westerly component to their movement. It seems that any cyclone heading west toward our part of the world is generally on it's last legs. Perhaps it's just the water temperature. Perhaps the currents and shape of the continent and coastline aren't favourable either. Cyclones heading west up North don't seem to have a problem. Down at this latitude it's death to them. You are right. One day we'll be hit by a cat 3 or 4, but I wouldn't hold your breath waiting.

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#1456883 - 13/03/2018 07:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5242
Loc: Diamond Valley
The JTWC has a different criteria for categorising TCs. Here is their track for what they now have as a TC. Note the area of uncertainty.

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#1456885 - 13/03/2018 08:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 961
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Severe Weather Warning
for DANGEROUS SURF
For people in parts of Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast Forecast Districts.
Issued at 5:00 am Tuesday, 13 March 2018.
Dangerous surf conditions developing along the southern Queensland coast during Wednesday.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop during Wednesday morning along the east coast of Fraser Island and the Sunshine Coast, and then extend southwards to the Gold Coast during Wednesday afternoon and evening. These conditions are likely to persist into Thursday.
Although water levels on the high tide early Wednesday morning may approach or slightly exceed the highest tide of the year along the open beaches, significant innundation of low lying areas is not expected.
Weather Situation: At 4 am Tuesday, a tropical low was located over the eastern Coral Sea approximately 1300 km northeast of the Sunshine Coast and moving towards the south. The low is expected strengthen a little and adopt a southwesterly track today, bringing it closer to southeast Queensland overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Subsequently, the low is most likely to curve to the south during Wednesday, keeping it off the southern Queensland coast. Gale force winds over the southern flank of the low are expected to produce large east to southeasterly swells along exposed parts of the southern Queensland coast from Wednesday.
Locations which may be affected include Noosa, Maroochydore, Caloundra and Coolangatta.

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#1456888 - 13/03/2018 08:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2018 Time : 201000 UTC
Lat : 17:01:50 S Lon : 159:46:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 993.6mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 3.4



CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THIRTEEN (13P) 2018
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 03121625
SATCON: MSLP = 993 hPa MSW = 47 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 47.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 48 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 300 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/satcon/archive/2018/satconhist_201813P.txt


Surprised the storm has not been named given satcon is running
at 45+ estimates.

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#1456889 - 13/03/2018 08:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23689
Loc: Townsville
The hype.

Some seriously grubby antics.
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#1456891 - 13/03/2018 08:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
The hype.

Some seriously grubby antics.


Not sure what meaning there?

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#1456894 - 13/03/2018 08:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2262
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I think the 18z GFS is going to look different this morning to previous runs. Seen the first 30 hours on TT and it has slowed up the system and significantly weakened it. It's going the way of Access-G.

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#1456896 - 13/03/2018 08:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Hagrid Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/02/2013
Posts: 264
Loc: Crediton Qld
Access R has it nowhere near SEQ, Closer to Bowen before washing out. Would't The Bom's short outlook own system be more accurate than the others?

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#1456898 - 13/03/2018 08:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18725
Loc: The Beach.
GFS just updated for 4.00am and kills it as a TC, instead bringing a weak Low into Wide Bay here and washing it out.
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#1456899 - 13/03/2018 08:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
The 3-day TC outlook is a manually produced one that takes everything into account including the various models (from which the main guidance comes).

Here's what some of the ensembles (in this case, the EC and GFS ensembles) are currently going for colour-coded by intensity. Grey = extratropical, light blue = below TC intensity, greens and above = equivalent of Cat 1 intensity or stronger:



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#1456904 - 13/03/2018 09:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
A system don't have to come ashore to make it interesting to follow.Its looking over how the system evolves in twelve hr
blocks to the environment is whats interesting.There are quite
a few degreed mets wx57 for one who agree with the 45kt atm.

Thats not hype.

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#1456906 - 13/03/2018 09:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5204
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Interesting to see many models separating the main convection from the low itself...could end up with the low moving close to shore (or even inland) but the convection sheared off to NZ.
Latest Access R keeps it north, latest GFS does the same - so both going for the weaker option. Amazing range of outcomes at such a short time frame.

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#1456907 - 13/03/2018 09:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3448
Loc: Buderim
Latest GFS has the low pressure system washing out just near Fraser Island, but has the heaviest rain (and presumably convective activity) shearing away and eventually generating a new low pressure system just NW of NZ.

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#1456909 - 13/03/2018 09:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18725
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
GFS just updated for 4.00am and kills it as a TC, instead bringing a weak Low into Wide Bay here and washing it out.


..and barely strong wind levels. Should be an interesting day.


Originally Posted By: KevD
Interesting to see many models separating the main convection from the low itself...could end up with the low moving close to shore (or even inland) but the convection sheared off to NZ.


Yes it's a shame if the main rain is sheared away as a late season solid rain event would great for Sth East Qld.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1456911 - 13/03/2018 09:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
http://wx.graphics/models/hwrf/hwrf.php
should update with every run.


Some weather on the western side off the low on the run. Winds filter down so actual gusts can be more than displayed on the plot

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#1456913 - 13/03/2018 09:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby
http://wx.graphics/models/hwrf/hwrf.php
should update with every run.


Some weather on the western side off the low on the run. Winds filter down so actual gusts can be more than displayed on the plot



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#1456925 - 13/03/2018 11:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for the effort putting up the maps Rossby, every input is helpful and appreciated. Cheers.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/03/2018 11:02)

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#1456928 - 13/03/2018 11:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5242
Loc: Diamond Valley
A whole lot of miraculous occurrences would have to occur for this system to survive its perilous voyage across the Coral Sea. Shear is the main obstacle as can be seen in the shear tendency chart below. Whilst the shear is initially favourable, its projected path brings it into shredding territory, which is fortunate considering its proximity towards the end of its life to the SEQ coastline. Mainstream media and click bait sites, if you're reading this - settle down.

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#1456937 - 13/03/2018 12:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7860
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
minus -40knt shear tendency in its path would appear to me like its preparing to pave a nice path I would have thought.
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#1456938 - 13/03/2018 12:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7860
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Those yellows will become blue at that rate and reds will become greens. Then add another 24hrs to that. Be interesting to see how those maps develop over the next few days.
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#1456942 - 13/03/2018 12:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Appears sheared across the north of the system form a mid-level
vort to the nnw clearly can be seen on 700mb wind map. And the
last micro shows the flattening cut shear line over the convention to the north.











Not hyping some models show weather close to a major city . Just
following here not over or unstating until i see the SSE turn in realtime.


Edited by Rossby (13/03/2018 12:10)

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#1456946 - 13/03/2018 12:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5242
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Popeye
minus -40knt shear tendency in its path would appear to me like its preparing to pave a nice path I would have thought.


Yes, Popeye, as I said in my post, the initial shear encountered is favourable, but if you note the increasing shear off the Fraser/SEQ coast you will see that this is its allotted graveyard.
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#1456948 - 13/03/2018 12:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...2018031218&fh=6 Shear is only 20kts and weakens asper GFS. Its the mid-level
vort impeding for now.




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#1456951 - 13/03/2018 12:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 465
Loc: Highgate Hill Brisvegas
Digging your posts Rossby, thank you.

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#1456953 - 13/03/2018 12:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
DDstorm Offline
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Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 299
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Yes, very informative. The pics tell a thousand words. Thx
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#1456957 - 13/03/2018 13:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


Pass got the full system clear cut 45kts tropical cyclone.

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#1456959 - 13/03/2018 13:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Need the sustained 34kt+ winds to wrap at least halfway around the centre for at least 6hrs to officially meet our TC criteria. But bordering on it already.

One thing to note about the CIMSS shear analysis charts is that they use a Fourier Transform technique to try and remove the shear that's directly caused by the TC itself. So it needs to be used with care if there's moderate or strong shear near the system and depending on the system's size.

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#1456960 - 13/03/2018 13:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
bber36 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2011
Posts: 104
Loc: Albany Creek Qld
Oh dear! Has anyone seen the "Breaking News" on a certain FB page about a 75% shift in global models towards the Qld coast???? It has been shared 1200 times already.
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#1456962 - 13/03/2018 13:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
mysteriousbrad Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1812
Loc: Rockhampton QLD

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#1456963 - 13/03/2018 13:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Scientist Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/02/2007
Posts: 10
Loc: East Coast Oz
Are BOM waiting for it to cross over 160 into AOR?

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#1456964 - 13/03/2018 13:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Don't know where he's getting the 75% shift thing from, but the rest seems ok:

"Latest solutions suggest the system may cross or come much closer to the coast between Rockhampton and Brisbane as a weak low," they posted about 11.40am today."

That's about all that's going to be left of it if it does cross the coast.

Clearly this one is more a case of The Morning Bulletin putting out misleading headlines for click bait.

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#1456965 - 13/03/2018 13:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I find myself very perplexed at this - I would like to see the low (not TC) make it so decent rainfall is received; but that would in a way validate certain socio-path-media sites.

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#1456966 - 13/03/2018 13:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Are U saying kenny that not a cyclone. 35is sustained more 50% with 45kts inner with scattered 40's.

Sorry Sir i disagree with you.


Edited by Rossby (13/03/2018 13:44)

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#1456969 - 13/03/2018 13:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
HWRF joining in on a downgrade to forecast intensity of this system, dead (no longer tropical cyclone intensity) within 6hrs according to the latest output (18z).

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/tcall.php?selectYear=2018&selectBasin=Southern Hemisphere&selectStorm=THIRTEEN13P

12Z (previous)(sorry about image size)


18Z (current)



Edited by Dan101 (13/03/2018 13:59)

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#1456970 - 13/03/2018 13:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 151
Did you just call Ken 'kenny'!?!?! ROFLMAO 😂😂😂😂😂

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#1456973 - 13/03/2018 14:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Still plenty of various across models although EC now seems to be the outlier.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1456974 - 13/03/2018 14:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3585
Once the low/cyclone has developed I have found that GFS has been the most accurate, Debbie, Marcia, Ului were good examples.

Last year GFS was the only one that stuck with Debbie crossing south of Bowen, others were near TVle/Ayr

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#1456975 - 13/03/2018 14:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Stormwithin]
Aussea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2012
Posts: 54
Loc: Taree, Nsw
Nobody puts our Kenny in the corner!

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#1456976 - 13/03/2018 14:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Hehe

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#1456977 - 13/03/2018 14:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Gotta love BOM.

WATL drifts the system North eventually washing it out whilst their 4 day synoptic maps send the system on a recurve to NZ.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1456980 - 13/03/2018 14:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Locke]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Originally Posted By: Locke
Gotta love BOM.

WATL drifts the system North eventually washing it out whilst their 4 day synoptic maps send the system on a recurve to NZ.


I think it's because ACCESS-R (which is one of the 8 models that make up the WATL system) has been keeping the system much further north than some other models and is therefore skewing the rainfall (averaged across all the models in WATL) further north.

Also, even though GFS is terrible at many things, especially long range, it (along with HWRF and some others) has had a long-known tendency to be good with TC track skill at short range provided the TC's intensity isn't going to change much.

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#1456981 - 13/03/2018 14:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Dan101
HWRF joining in on a downgrade to forecast intensity of this system, dead (no longer tropical cyclone intensity) within 6hrs according to the latest output (18z).

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/tcall.php?selectYear=2018&selectBasin=Southern Hemisphere&selectStorm=THIRTEEN13P

12Z (previous)(sorry about image size)




18Z (current)






18Z is a 40kt cyclone +24hrs on the plot i view.





No disrespect intended @Ken. We just dont agree on this alls good.

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#1456983 - 13/03/2018 14:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
GFS way back out to sea this run.
UKMET towards Rocky but dead on arrival.

Honestly guys, for those looking for some sort of miracle that conditions improve and it crosses the coast as anything more than a very weak low...you'll be sorely disappointed because it just isn't going to happen, not this time.

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#1456985 - 13/03/2018 14:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3585
I agree Mega, its going to wash out.

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#1456986 - 13/03/2018 15:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5242
Loc: Diamond Valley
There are arguments on both sides. What I find when there is an actual system out there is that you can't go past real-time obs. Models are a useful guide for future movements and intensity; however, when there is an observable circulating system it also pays to keep an eye on it.
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#1456989 - 13/03/2018 15:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby
The upper-level divergence for the depression to move bulk
air quickly is key to intensification ie the outflow exhaust chimney really looks ideal when the td drops a little south. That may offset any undercutting shear and allow the tc to RI and build core. Atm i don't see see rapid organising just consolidation.

Good to see some opinions none the less.






.



Obviously there was no RI the last JTWC advisory today
agreed with most of what i was thinking @ the time of that post.


REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTENING
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A BULLSEYE 122301Z ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BASED ON A PATCH OF
35 KT WIND BARBS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC, WITH RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT WIND VECTORS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW MULTIAGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND A 122000Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KTS.
A 121959Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER POSITION AND TO THE EAST, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRAILING EQUATORWARD RAIN BAND. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS
OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WANING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE AREA ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 29C-30C. WARM
SSTS AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENABLE TC 13P TO INTENSIFY IN
THE SHORT TERM, TO A MAXIMUM OF 45 KTS AT TAU 12. AS THE STR
CONTINUES TO BUILD, TC 13P WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
SOUTHWARD. TC 13P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS AN AREA OF HIGHER
VWS (OVER 25 KTS). DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING IN-PHASE WITH
THE STORM MOTION, THE INCREASING VWS WILL IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM, AND BEGIN TO DEGRADE THE CYCLONE
AFTER TAU 24. AFTERWARD, AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR, STRONG VWS
AND COOLING SSTS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 48. BY TAU
72, TC 13P WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH GFS INDICATING SLOWER MOVEMENT AND A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE MAJORITY OF MODELS, WHICH CAPTURE THE
PREDICTED TURN TO THE SOUTH AROUND THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A SOUTHWESTWARD
TURN IN THE TRACK THAT HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z,
131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//

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#1456996 - 13/03/2018 16:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Are U saying kenny that not a cyclone. 35is sustained more 50% with 45kts inner with scattered 40's.

Sorry Sir i disagree with you.


Not sure why you always think I'm disagreeing with you or out to get you Rossby. I simply stated what the TC criteria are in the Australian region including the sustaining of the winds for at least 6hrs. It is what it is.

And Inclement Weather, totally agree. Should always use both realtime obs AND models. Never use one while ignoring the other. Realtime obs are vital for seeing the current state of things as well as verifying how models are performing... but as we all know, things can change at the drop of a hat in a non-linear way and current/recent conditions don't always reflect what it'll be like beyond several hours.
I wish I got a dollar for every time someone's said that we should monitor a setup in realtime now, even a day or two out despite the fact that it's changed significantly by the next day.

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#1456998 - 13/03/2018 16:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Originally Posted By: Dan101
HWRF joining in on a downgrade to forecast intensity of this system, dead (no longer tropical cyclone intensity) within 6hrs according to the latest output (18z).

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/tcall.php?selectYear=2018&selectBasin=Southern Hemisphere&selectStorm=THIRTEEN13P

12Z (previous)(sorry about image size)




18Z (current)






18Z is a 40kt cyclone +24hrs on the plot i view.






Look at where that max wind is occurring; nowhere near the center of circulation. I wouldnít call that a cyclone.


Edited by Dan101 (13/03/2018 16:49)

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#1457001 - 13/03/2018 17:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looking worse for wear this arvo.

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#1457003 - 13/03/2018 17:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4166
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Are U saying kenny that not a cyclone. 35is sustained more 50% with 45kts inner with scattered 40's.

Sorry Sir i disagree with you.


Not sure why you always think I'm disagreeing with you or out to get you Rossby. I simply stated what the TC criteria are in the Australian region including the sustaining of the winds for at least 6hrs. It is what it is.

And Inclement Weather, totally agree. Should always use both realtime obs AND models. Never use one while ignoring the other. Realtime obs are vital for seeing the current state of things as well as verifying how models are performing... but as we all know, things can change at the drop of a hat in a non-linear way and current/recent conditions don't always reflect what it'll be like beyond several hours.
I wish I got a dollar for every time someone's said that we should monitor a setup in realtime now, even a day or two out despite the fact that it's changed significantly by the next day.



I am pretty sure Rossby is the same person that pops up every year (sometimes twice after having been banned) for the past few years.Basically just to stir the pot.
You can tell by the posting style,exactly the same each time and as a "newbie" is keen to attack.
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1457005 - 13/03/2018 17:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
RichieM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/08/2015
Posts: 96
Loc: Manunda, Cairns
Jeez the media in Australia loves to hype up these stories about 'catastrophic' events and doom and gloom. Was quite the opposite in NZ when you didn't know storms were coming unless you check the weather.

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#1457007 - 13/03/2018 17:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Stevo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 90
Loc: The Gap
Linda is born.

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#1457008 - 13/03/2018 17:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: RichieM]
Leebie3 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 47
Loc: Mt Sheridan, Cairns
Originally Posted By: RichieM
Jeez the media in Australia loves to hype up these stories about 'catastrophic' events and doom and gloom. Was quite the opposite in NZ when you didn't know storms were coming unless you check the weather.



Very different hey! We got snowed in a few times in CHCH with no warnings the snow would be that heavy. 100km winds down Lincoln Rd. Again, no major warnings just a whole lot of people having fun leaning into it grin Then again, that was before the age of computers.

Not sure if it was a case of no hype or just no worries..she'll be right. Bit of Number8 will fix it wink

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#1457010 - 13/03/2018 17:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Steven Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2165
Loc: 中国上૲...
IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:16 pm EST on Tuesday 13 March 2018
At 4 pm AEST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Linda (Category 1) with central pressure
994 hPa was located in the Coral Sea near latitude 19.3 south longitude 159.5
east, which is about 880 km northeast of Sandy Cape and 1100 km east of Mackay.

Tropical cyclone Linda, a category 1 cyclone, has formed in the Coral Sea.
Tropical cyclone Linda is expected to continue to move southwest towards the
Queensland coast for the next 24 hours, before turning south and ultimately
southeast away from the coast again.

On Wednesday, conditions will become unfavourable for tropical cyclone Linda,
and it is expected to transition into an intense subtropical low.

At its closest approach to the coast, the remains of tropical cyclone Linda
will generate large waves and dangerous surf conditions about exposed southern
Queensland beaches. Tides are also expected to be higher than normal,
particularly on Thursday morning's high tide. A severe weather warning is
current for these conditions.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 pm AEST.

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#1457011 - 13/03/2018 17:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Stevo]
sharjay Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 1000
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
Originally Posted By: Stevo
Linda is born.

and a certain facebook page has gone nuts...people panicking and commenting they are heading out to supermarkets to stock up and it only got posted 15 minutes ago.


Edited by sharjay (13/03/2018 17:48)

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#1457012 - 13/03/2018 17:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3303
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Haha good times 159.5e.

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#1457014 - 13/03/2018 18:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Ugh, it looks like Linda has had a night on MDMA.

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#1457015 - 13/03/2018 18:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 220
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
ER waves are more important as triggers for TC formation rather than steering an already formed TC.

Also,when this morning's state forecast was created, the data from the 12z EC run that shows that system curving to the south would've only just started coming in and even then, the data for all the forecast days wouldn't have come in yet (typically finishes by just before 5pm). Add the fact that major edits arenít always made to the state forecast depending on time of issue, run to run consistency or lack thereof



As always Ken, a wealth of knowledge and information. smile

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#1457017 - 13/03/2018 18:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: sharjay]
Stevo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 90
Loc: The Gap
Originally Posted By: sharjay
Originally Posted By: Stevo
Linda is born.

and a certain facebook page has gone nuts...people panicking and commenting they are heading out to supermarkets to stock up and it only got posted 15 minutes ago.
ha two guesses who

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#1457018 - 13/03/2018 18:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Weary Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1080
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
Cyclones aren't really that difficult to predict given the technology we have available now ~Thomash
Direct quote by that FB page, Really??


Edited by Weary (13/03/2018 18:46)
_________________________
Love petrichor

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#1457019 - 13/03/2018 18:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Higgins or taylor?
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1457020 - 13/03/2018 18:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
DIANE MOON Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/02/2011
Posts: 42
Loc: SE QLD, Australia.
_________________________
Excuse me, I'm just learning!

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#1457021 - 13/03/2018 18:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Steven Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2165
Loc: 中国上૲...
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0722 UTC 13/03/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Linda
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.3S
Longitude: 159.5E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [193 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [32 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 13/1200: 20.2S 158.4E: 050 [095]: 040 [075]: 994
+12: 13/1800: 20.8S 157.4E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 992
+18: 14/0000: 21.6S 156.4E: 075 [145]: 040 [075]: 992
+24: 14/0600: 22.3S 155.9E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 14/1800: 24.3S 155.5E: 110 [200]: 030 [055]: 997
+48: 15/0600: 26.2S 155.9E: 130 [235]: 030 [055]: 996
+60: 15/1800: 27.6S 156.7E: 150 [275]: 030 [055]: 995
+72: 16/0600: 28.4S 158.0E: 165 [305]: 030 [055]: 994
+96: 17/0600: : : :
+120: 18/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Linda has steadily developed during the past 24 hours. The system currently lies under northerly deep layer shear of approximately 15-20 knots, and this is evident in the distribution of deep convection around the system. There is also evidence of dry air wrapping around the northern side of the system. Despite this, the system has maintained banding and convection near the centre through today.

Intensity is estimated at 35 knots [10 minute mean]. Dvorak analysis has used acurved band pattern averaging a 0.6 to 0.7 wrap during the previous few hours.

DT is 3.0. MET is 1.5 and PAT is 2.0. The final T was based on the DT. This estimate is supported by the morning ASCAT pass suggested marginal gales extending through the eastern and southern quadrants.

Movement has been to the south during the past 24 hours under the influence of a mid level ridge to the east, and trough to the west. During the next 24 hours, an easterly steering influence will build to the south of the system and it should adopt a more southwesterly track. On Thursday this influence should break down again, and the system will be steered predominantly by the mid-level ridge
to the east - first southerly, then southeasterly away from the Queensland coast.

Development is expected to be slow or nonexistent during the next 24 hours. The system will move into greater deep layer shear associated with an upper trough over eastern Australia. The interaction with this trough is expected to cause the system to lose its tropical cyclone structure and transition into a subtropical low pressure system later on Wednesday.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

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#1457023 - 13/03/2018 18:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Weary Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1080
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Higgins or taylor?

Higgins
_________________________
Love petrichor

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#1457025 - 13/03/2018 19:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 220
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Hehe



smile

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#1457027 - 13/03/2018 19:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1653
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a time lapse of Himawari satellite images for the last 24 hours and updates every 30 minutes. She is a bit of an non-discript blob at the moment.

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-QLD.aspx
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1457028 - 13/03/2018 19:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Weary]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 220
Originally Posted By: Weary
Cyclones aren't really that difficult to predict given the technology we have available now ~Thomash
Direct quote by that FB page, Really??



If they're not that difficult to predict, then I guess the same applies to Financial Markets as well. What a crackup.

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#1457030 - 13/03/2018 19:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 154
Loc: Roma, Qld
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Weary
Cyclones aren't really that difficult to predict given the technology we have available now ~Thomash
Direct quote by that FB page, Really??



If they're not that difficult to predict, then I guess the same applies to Financial Markets as well. What a crackup.


I grabbed a few even better ones and posted them in the General Weather Social Media thread......

Perfect timing, I also found this today

https://www.accc.gov.au/about-us/inquiries/digital-platforms-inquiry/issues-paper



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#1457031 - 13/03/2018 19:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3448
Loc: Buderim
Well defined eye visible on colour enhanced IR, but not at all visible on grey scale. (BOM Himawari)

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#1457034 - 13/03/2018 19:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
sharjay Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 1000
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Weary
Cyclones aren't really that difficult to predict given the technology we have available now ~Thomash
Direct quote by that FB page, Really??



If they're not that difficult to predict, then I guess the same applies to Financial Markets as well. What a crackup.

and if they're not difficult to predict, why hasn't he got a firm conclusion on it instead of recent comment of "it may or may not cross the coast between brisbane and rockhampton"

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#1457035 - 13/03/2018 19:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1575
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I tell you what is totally predictable.....................Higgins smile
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1457037 - 13/03/2018 20:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1117
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I tell you what is totally predictable.....................Higgins smile


The only consolation with scaremongering is that he ends up spending countless hours replying, via private message and on his forum, to the concerns of subscribers who are clueless yet bamboozled and sometimes genuinely frightened by rainbow coloured images and track maps of a possible Armageddon that look very scary to them..!...you reap what you sow Higgins you greedy fool..!..

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#1457038 - 13/03/2018 20:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 155
Loc: Moranbah
Hey Mods, this one needs a name change.

ta,
Fuj

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#1457039 - 13/03/2018 20:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 568
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Speed at 32 kph seems fast. Is this related to expectation that she will live short life?


Edited by Flowin (13/03/2018 20:17)

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#1457042 - 13/03/2018 20:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Maybe she is trying to beat that trough?

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#1457043 - 13/03/2018 20:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 462
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Needs to do 45-50km/h to beat the trough.
_________________________
Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1457047 - 13/03/2018 20:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2851
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Weary
Cyclones aren't really that difficult to predict given the technology we have available now ~Thomash
Direct quote by that FB page, Really??



If they're not that difficult to predict, then I guess the same applies to Financial Markets as well. What a crackup.

Drama not only sells news papers but weather subscriptions as well.
_________________________
I hate winter

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#1457048 - 13/03/2018 20:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
sharjay Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 1000
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
wasnt she only doing something like 20km/hr earlier today.. can she ramp up the speed still at this stage and make it to the required 45km or will conditions stop that


Edited by sharjay (13/03/2018 20:50)

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#1457049 - 13/03/2018 20:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Needs to do 45-50km/h to beat the trough.


yep and it's not happening.

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#1457050 - 13/03/2018 20:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2851
Loc: collingwood park
Yeah, nah Linda's a no show. Bit of rain would of been good. Creeks need a good flush so I can go crabbing before the seasons done lol
_________________________
I hate winter

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#1457052 - 13/03/2018 20:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 568
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
She is fast though right?
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

Top
#1457058 - 13/03/2018 21:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
In the morning tomorrow TC Linda some time should be extra Tropical low I think if it's moved into the cool waters.

If it's is going to be going hear the SE of qLD.


Edited by Mathew (13/03/2018 21:10)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 740.4mm > 52.62mm - 113.22mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 26.1mm month 60.6mm / 12.9mm

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#1457059 - 13/03/2018 21:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1575
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
certainly is motoring at the moment
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

Top
#1457062 - 13/03/2018 21:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: sharjay]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 220
Originally Posted By: sharjay
wasnt she only doing something like 20km/hr earlier today.. can she ramp up the speed still at this stage and make it to the required 45km or will conditions stop that



Hey Sharjay. I think 45klms an hour would surely have to be at the upper end of the historical data for past Cyclones. I would think that 45klms/hr would most likely be considered an outlier in the context of probability and Standard Deviations. I really can't remember a system reaching such a speed over water. Most of the numbers I see are generally within the 10klm/hr to 30klm/hr range for systems within the Australian region.


Edited by MangroveJack70 (13/03/2018 21:39)

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#1457064 - 13/03/2018 21:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
If anyone's interested in the Bureau's tech bulletin for Linda:


" Tropical cyclone Linda has steadily developed during the past 24 hours. The
system currently lies under northerly deep layer shear of approximately 15-20
knots, and this is evident in the distribution of deep convection around the
system. There is also evidence of dry air wrapping around the northern side of
the system. Despite this, the system has maintained banding and convection near
the centre through today.

Intensity is estimated at 35 knots [10 minute mean]. Dvorak analysis has used a
curved band pattern averaging a 0.6 to 0.7 wrap during the previous few hours.
DT is 3.0. MET is 1.5 and PAT is 2.0. The final T was based on the DT. This
estimate is supported by the morning ASCAT pass suggested marginal gales
extending through the eastern and southern quadrants.

Movement has been to the south during the past 24 hours under the influence of a
mid level ridge to the east, and trough to the west. During the next 24 hours,
an easterly steering influence will build to the south of the system and it
should adopt a more southwesterly track. On Thursday this influence should break
down again, and the system will be steered predominantly by the mid-level ridge
to the east - first southerly, then southeasterly away from the Queensland
coast.

Development is expected to be slow or nonexistent during the next 24 hours. The
system will move into greater deep layer shear associated with an upper trough
over eastern Australia. The interaction with this trough is expected to cause
the system to lose its tropical cyclone structure and transition into a
subtropical low pressure system later on Wednesday. "

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#1457065 - 13/03/2018 21:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 568
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: sharjay
wasnt she only doing something like 20km/hr earlier today.. can she ramp up the speed still at this stage and make it to the required 45km or will conditions stop that



Hey Sharjay. I think 45klms an hour would surely have to be at the upper end of the historical data for past Syclones. I would think that 45klms/hr would most likely be considered an outlier in the context of probability and Standard Deviations. I really can't remember a system reaching such a speed over water. Most of the numbers I see are generally within the 10klm/hr to 30klm/hr range for systems within the Australian region.

Yeah sort of what I was thinking, but I was more in range of ten to twenty something kph

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#1457067 - 13/03/2018 21:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 740.4mm > 52.62mm - 113.22mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 26.1mm month 60.6mm / 12.9mm

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#1457068 - 13/03/2018 21:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Got her skates on, Himawari showing a good SW movement.

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#1457070 - 13/03/2018 21:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Flowin]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 220
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: sharjay
wasnt she only doing something like 20km/hr earlier today.. can she ramp up the speed still at this stage and make it to the required 45km or will conditions stop that



Hey Sharjay. I think 45klms an hour would surely have to be at the upper end of the historical data for past Syclones. I would think that 45klms/hr would most likely be considered an outlier in the context of probability and Standard Deviations. I really can't remember a system reaching such a speed over water. Most of the numbers I see are generally within the 10klm/hr to 30klm/hr range for systems within the Australian region.

Yeah sort of what I was thinking, but I was more in range of ten to twenty something kph


Yeah, the range was quite broad. Would be interesting to see some stats on various systems. One day i'll get to that.

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#1457072 - 13/03/2018 21:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 220
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
If anyone's interested in the Bureau's tech bulletin for Linda:


" Tropical cyclone Linda has steadily developed during the past 24 hours. The
system currently lies under northerly deep layer shear of approximately 15-20
knots, and this is evident in the distribution of deep convection around the
system. There is also evidence of dry air wrapping around the northern side of
the system. Despite this, the system has maintained banding and convection near
the centre through today.

Intensity is estimated at 35 knots [10 minute mean]. Dvorak analysis has used a
curved band pattern averaging a 0.6 to 0.7 wrap during the previous few hours.
DT is 3.0. MET is 1.5 and PAT is 2.0. The final T was based on the DT. This
estimate is supported by the morning ASCAT pass suggested marginal gales
extending through the eastern and southern quadrants.

Movement has been to the south during the past 24 hours under the influence of a
mid level ridge to the east, and trough to the west. During the next 24 hours,
an easterly steering influence will build to the south of the system and it
should adopt a more southwesterly track. On Thursday this influence should break
down again, and the system will be steered predominantly by the mid-level ridge
to the east - first southerly, then southeasterly away from the Queensland
coast.

Development is expected to be slow or nonexistent during the next 24 hours. The
system will move into greater deep layer shear associated with an upper trough
over eastern Australia. The interaction with this trough is expected to cause
the system to lose its tropical cyclone structure and transition into a
subtropical low pressure system later on Wednesday. "



Thanks Ken. You can definitely see the dry air on the imaging.

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#1457078 - 13/03/2018 21:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Flowin]
sharjay Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 1000
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: sharjay
wasnt she only doing something like 20km/hr earlier today.. can she ramp up the speed still at this stage and make it to the required 45km or will conditions stop that



Hey Sharjay. I think 45klms an hour would surely have to be at the upper end of the historical data for past Syclones. I would think that 45klms/hr would most likely be considered an outlier in the context of probability and Standard Deviations. I really can't remember a system reaching such a speed over water. Most of the numbers I see are generally within the 10klm/hr to 30klm/hr range for systems within the Australian region.

Yeah sort of what I was thinking, but I was more in range of ten to twenty something kph

thanks guys... thinking back to the past fews years i have been watching cyclones i certainly now remember no cyclone getting speeds like that..silly me. she is motoring along though looking at himawari. looks like that eye mentioned before has gone in last frame


Edited by sharjay (13/03/2018 21:51)

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#1457079 - 13/03/2018 21:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
At this rate she be knocking on the door for breakfast.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/03/2018 21:56)

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#1457086 - 13/03/2018 22:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Shear, SST, and deep moisture all looking bad for Linda along her path - her time as a TC is limited:



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#1457087 - 13/03/2018 22:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 568
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
The factors degrading strength outlook appear compelling

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#1457089 - 13/03/2018 22:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 220
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Shear, SST, and deep moisture all looking bad for Linda along her path - her time as a TC is limited:





smile

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#1457098 - 14/03/2018 08:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
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Loc: Townsville
rip
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#1457101 - 14/03/2018 08:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 568
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I posted earlier about how fast she was travelling yesterday. I have not found anything yet documenting comparison of Australia TC typical movement speeds.

Did find some info on US Hurricanes which noted "The fastest hurricane in the record was Emily in 1987, whose maximum speed reached 110.48 km/hr (59.61 kt or 68.65 mph) as it raced over the North Atlantic, before it turned extratropical." That is travel speed not wind speed....
See: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G16.html
Still looking for any info on Australian TC travel speeds.
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#1457102 - 14/03/2018 08:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
next

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#1457103 - 14/03/2018 08:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Veejay Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/03/2014
Posts: 21
Loc: Emerald QLD
Latest sat pic looks like an eye to the north? Is that what happens when you shear the head off?

Jay

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#1457104 - 14/03/2018 08:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1232
Loc: Toowoomba
"Next"!.But won't the same thing happen again? I see one of the models just have it washing out into a trough off the coast. For me, I see this as the least painful scenario, seeing there is no hope of getting any useful rain from it, apart from the coast and hinterland of course.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (14/03/2018 08:55)

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#1457105 - 14/03/2018 08:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
I'd expect it to be downgraded to a low very soon after it loses its tropical characteristics.

The most likely scenario (no major impact on SE QLD except for the big surf & gusty winds with showers becoming confined to the coastal fringe & islands by tomorrow) still appears to be holding true.

Here's the latest tech bulletin from the Bureau:


" Tropical Cyclone Linda has continued a south southwest path over the past 12
hours. The system currently lies under northerly deep layer shear of
approximately 30-40 knots.

The system is showing the results of interaction with the higher shear, with the
LLCC displaced to the northeast away from the deepest convection. The deep
convection itself has also shown a marked decrease over the last few hours. The
analysis fix is based off an estimate of the LLCC in relation to the deep
convection. Intensity estimated to be 35 knots, with a large swathe of gales
extending well to the south of the system due to the pressure gradient caused by
the system and the ridge to the south. Dvorak analysis has used a shear pattern
with the LLCC less than 3/4 of a degree from the strong temperature gradient
[though noting convection is rapidly weakening]. DT is 2.5. MET is 1.0 and PAT
is 1.5. The final T of 2.5 was based on the DT. CI held at 3.0 given uncertainty
surrounding position of LLCC and weakening phase.

The system will move into greater deep layer shear associated with an upper
trough over eastern Australia during today. The interaction with this trough is
expected to cause the system to continue to lose its tropical cyclone structure
and transition into a subtropical low pressure system early today, particularly
after confirmation is obtained from visual imagery as to the position of the
LLCC.


Movement has been to the south southwest overnight under the influence of a mid
level ridge to the east, and trough to the west. During today, an easterly
steering influence will likely build to the south of the system, resulting in it
possibly adopting a more southwesterly track. On Thursday this influence should
break down again, and the system should be steered predominantly by a strong
upper trough over Queensland and a mid-level ridge to its east - first
southerly, then potentially southeasterly away from the Queensland coast
depending on the strength of the subtropical low. "


And here's a forecast radar loop for the next 5 days from the HWRF model:



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#1457106 - 14/03/2018 09:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Veejay Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/03/2014
Posts: 21
Loc: Emerald QLD
Thanks Ken

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#1457109 - 14/03/2018 09:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
FXXT01 ADRM 131400
IDY26500

Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC

ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20180313 1200 UTC

Cyc Name Date Time Lat Long C.Pres Max Wind(kts)

LINDA 20180313 1200 -20.1 158.3 995.1 55.6
LINDA 20180313 1800 -20.8 157.3 991.1 55.3
LINDA 20180314 0000 -21.3 156.4 993.9 47.1
LINDA 20180314 0600 -22.1 156.1 994.0 42.8
LINDA 20180314 1200 -22.8 155.8 998.1 41.4
LINDA 20180314 1800 -23.4 155.5 997.2 43.0
LINDA 20180315 0000 -24.3 155.5 1000.4 42.8
LINDA 20180315 0600 -25.2 155.4 998.9 42.8
LINDA 20180315 1200 -25.0 155.8 1003.4 35.0
LINDA 20180315 1800 -25.7 155.6 1003.8 34.0
LINDA 20180316 0000 -25.7 155.4 1007.1 31.0
LINDA 20180316 0600 -25.5 154.9 1006.2 35.1
LINDA 20180316 1200 -25.3 154.3 1009.6 31.7




JTWC
Peeked @ 50kts. 13P LINDA 180313 1800 21.6S 157.8E SHEM 50 990

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#1457113 - 14/03/2018 09:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Himawari showing a nice little circulation to the north of ex Linda. An eddy or something more substantial?

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#1457114 - 14/03/2018 09:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 85
Loc: Rockhampton
So that's it for the wet season 17/18 then it would seem.

1 TC Linda is being sheared away and tossed away to the graveyard.
2 MJO is losing strength and unlikely to affect norther Australia.
3 A return to ENSO Neutral.

Here's to next season bing more interesting.
Chow for now.

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#1457115 - 14/03/2018 09:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Himawari showing a nice little circulation to the north of ex Linda. An eddy or something more substantial?

Are you referring to the low level circulation centre of Linda whose top is being torn off by the shear?

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#1457116 - 14/03/2018 09:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Way further north, NW of New Cal, about halfway to New Guinea, Ken.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (14/03/2018 09:38)

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#1457120 - 14/03/2018 09:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: ifishcq]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: ifishcq
So that's it for the wet season 17/18 then it would seem.

1 TC Linda is being sheared away and tossed away to the graveyard.
2 MJO is losing strength and unlikely to affect norther Australia.
3 A return to ENSO Neutral.

Here's to next season bing more interesting.
Chow for now.


Theres still the rest of March and April left. The MJO could still effect us in april so dont write it off completely and a return to Neutral means very little as the La Nina we had did absolutely nothing for our rainfall. Granted its rare for massive events in April but its not unheard of plus April Cyclones are very possible...the wet season doesnt officially end til April although it can extend to May some years so you just never know.
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#1457122 - 14/03/2018 09:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Awkward moment when Linda defies all predictions makes a turn north west...smashes str8 in to cardwell as A cat 5.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1457123 - 14/03/2018 09:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3448
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Himawari showing a nice little circulation to the north of ex Linda. An eddy or something more substantial?


Interesting GFS picks up a slight circulation at 950hp in its forecast for 10am. It is does not persist for any period of time, and does not extend even above 850hp. GFS seems to show an eddy briefly pinched off the north side of Linda, but the satellite pic looks pretty cool.


Edited by Mike Hauber (14/03/2018 09:59)

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#1457124 - 14/03/2018 10:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
As one of the biggest pessimists here I would normally say by now that that's the season done...but looking ahead on ext GFS and EC, there still does seem to be something trying to brew near PNG. Whether that eventuates to anything, who really knows, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

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#1457126 - 14/03/2018 10:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Mega]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: Mega
As one of the biggest pessimists here I would normally say by now that that's the season done...but looking ahead on ext GFS and EC, there still does seem to be something trying to brew near PNG. Whether that eventuates to anything, who really knows, but it's worth keeping an eye on.


Well I just found it a bit silly to say the wet seasons over when we still have a deepening monsoon trough north of australia and the rest of march and april left. Thats six weeks of the official season.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1457136 - 14/03/2018 11:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: ifishcq]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: ifishcq
So that's it for the wet season 17/18 then it would seem.

1 TC Linda is being sheared away and tossed away to the graveyard.
2 MJO is losing strength and unlikely to affect norther Australia.
3 A return to ENSO Neutral.

Here's to next season bing more interesting.
Chow for now.


Recent history and extended GFS would support the assertion this is far less certain than your suggesting.

Extended system has a strong large system headed for the QLD coast at the end of its run and these types of systems have a habit of showing up late in the season over the past decade.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1457196 - 14/03/2018 20:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
ACCESS-R hasn't exactly had the best performance with TC's in the past and Linda is no exception.

It even missed the actual position of the LLCC of ex-Linda by hundreds of km in its own analysis run made at 00z this morning (not to mention the fact that it's consistently going for that crazy "approaching the central coast" scenario for days) - these graphics below are courtesy of Weatherzone Layers:





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#1457209 - 15/03/2018 03:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: rainthisway]
hickory Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1468
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Awkward moment when Linda defies all predictions makes a turn north west...smashes str8 in to cardwell as A cat 5.

What are you smoking ??

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#1457214 - 15/03/2018 08:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: rainthisway]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 85
Loc: Rockhampton
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Originally Posted By: Mega
As one of the biggest pessimists here I would normally say by now that that's the season done...but looking ahead on ext GFS and EC, there still does seem to be something trying to brew near PNG. Whether that eventuates to anything, who really knows, but it's worth keeping an eye on.


Well I just found it a bit silly to say the wet seasons over when we still have a deepening monsoon trough north of australia and the rest of march and april left. Thats six weeks of the official season.



Iím happy to call the wet season over.
Letís now focus on what the winter months might bring, perhaps an ECL or 2

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#1457222 - 15/03/2018 09:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: ifishcq]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: ifishcq
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Originally Posted By: Mega
As one of the biggest pessimists here I would normally say by now that that's the season done...but looking ahead on ext GFS and EC, there still does seem to be something trying to brew near PNG. Whether that eventuates to anything, who really knows, but it's worth keeping an eye on.


Well I just found it a bit silly to say the wet seasons over when we still have a deepening monsoon trough north of australia and the rest of march and april left. Thats six weeks of the official season.



Iím happy to call the wet season over.
Letís now focus on what the winter months might bring, perhaps an ECL or 2


There is a deepening monsoon trough...the wet season is not over. As for ECL we dont get them up here so no use to us...only really effect Nsw and seqld.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1457227 - 15/03/2018 10:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3448
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: rainthisway


There is a deepening monsoon trough...the wet season is not over. As for ECL we dont get them up here so no use to us...only really effect Nsw and seqld.


Depends where you are. April average rainfall in Rockhampton is only 43mm, so its not unreasonable to say that the wet season in Rockhampton is over in my opinion. Areas in the far north of course still have plenty of time for late season tropical activity.

ECLs definitely impact further north than SEQ, but not as frequently. Some of our best ECLs are the ones that start on the central QLD coast and strengthen as they slide south along the coast towards SEQ. A search for 'Townsville' through Harden up's ECL history finds three instances of major ECLs that initially formed near Townsville, and had major impacts SEQ or NSW.

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#1457241 - 15/03/2018 11:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3585
Any one remember TC Beni in 2003, I do recall that converted to an ECL and drifted back north to the Central Qld coast.

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#1457277 - 15/03/2018 15:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
A significant number of apparent ECLís that form near the more northern parts of the QLD coast are hybrids (they have characteristics of both pure ECLís and warm cored tropical systems).


Edited by Ken Kato (15/03/2018 15:53)

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#1457306 - 15/03/2018 20:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 568
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I would be interested in whether any of the experienced cyclone observers could comment on whether TC Linda may have broken records, (or nearly) for the shortest lived cyclone?

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#1457326 - 15/03/2018 22:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: rainthisway


There is a deepening monsoon trough...the wet season is not over. As for ECL we dont get them up here so no use to us...only really effect Nsw and seqld.


Depends where you are. April average rainfall in Rockhampton is only 43mm, so its not unreasonable to say that the wet season in Rockhampton is over in my opinion. Areas in the far north of course still have plenty of time for late season tropical activity.

ECLs definitely impact further north than SEQ, but not as frequently. Some of our best ECLs are the ones that start on the central QLD coast and strengthen as they slide south along the coast towards SEQ. A search for 'Townsville' through Harden up's ECL history finds three instances of major ECLs that initially formed near Townsville, and had major impacts SEQ or NSW.


My point being ECL do not effect us...not.often...as Ken said we get hybrid systems...not actually the same as ECL. Anyway my point is the wet season ia not over...even down rockhampton you can get good wet periods in winter.
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#1457386 - 16/03/2018 12:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3448
Loc: Buderim
Hybrids are still a low pressure system. And if they occur near Townsville thats part of the east coast.

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#1457405 - 16/03/2018 15:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Yes but the point being ecl in the traditional sense are not warm cored.

Hiwever by your definition TC would be ECL's but we know thats not the case.


Edited by rainthisway (16/03/2018 15:29)
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