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#1456621 - 11/03/2018 11:01 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Really sick, sick, sick to death of this lack of rainfall! This "magical weather" is boring and useless! I want rain now!!! mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad

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#1456623 - 11/03/2018 11:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 797
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
ASF, what you were drawing attention to on 17 March is looking increasingly interesting (if that is the right word). Are you looking at GFS for 17-18/3? Seems little or no moisture but 18th (ie the Sunday)looks very rough and is (if not the 17th as other models have it)potentially very hot/windy with a period of high Haines index.

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#1456627 - 11/03/2018 11:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2563
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Today see satellite Heavy Clouds in SW heading NE direction by quick sharp High Pressure moving in changing to SE winds as nice get some clouds but might burn off once reach Divided ranges in North.

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#1456631 - 11/03/2018 12:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2563
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
What ThunderBob said about March 17th is will be very dangerous HOT N/NW winds cool change of W to SW winds is Bush fire Risk for Most of SA and VIC...For sure media will warning the danger..No fires..very dry grass.

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#1456634 - 11/03/2018 12:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2563
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...

Melbourne will have late summer heat


Edited by chasers addict (11/03/2018 12:42)

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#1456637 - 11/03/2018 12:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1282
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep they need to get this fire out that's not
To far from me by then!

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#1456686 - 11/03/2018 19:42 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7135
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS run tones down potential wind speeds for Fri/Sat change imo. Hope it stays that way, but do have concerns over late season fires as most are.

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#1456717 - 11/03/2018 23:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 565
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Hahah ASF calm down so angry lol weather is weather it will Rain soon April will bring the rain you need.

Yeah Weekend looking amazing, Sunday on EC Wow 37-42c across Vic gales, dust, fires crazy for mid march if any goes not good.
Gotta get those Gippy fires out this week.

Much cooler today boo lol

DRY next 2 weeks though, weekend change little if any rain again and HUGE high behind it for next week.

All eyes on this weekend

Will the trend continue, bears watching a 6hr difference will make all the difference.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1456733 - 12/03/2018 10:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1282
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah twist, they really need to(which they should
Be able to with cooler weather) get the Seaview
Fire out between now and weekend?

If they don't and with how dry this whole range
Is from were the fire is and my place, then there
Could be real trouble come the weekend

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#1456734 - 12/03/2018 10:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
No offence Twister but I really wish it would rain right now, so sick of this dry spell, all the more because of the bushfire risk where I live! A front or any other storm system that fails to bring any useful precipitation is no more welcome than a heatwave.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (12/03/2018 10:08)

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#1456752 - 12/03/2018 12:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2563
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
No Rain on angry level, Next system cold uppers is slipping away and High Pressure is tightening all around South Pole belt...

I hope we get good cold blast rain this winter and sick of hearing BOM saying maybe dry winter

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#1456808 - 12/03/2018 18:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7135
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS reveals that Sunday will be a severe fire risk day frown :

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#1456814 - 12/03/2018 18:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7135
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hopefully GFS is way off for next Sunday, if true, a record hot night for N Gippsland for a March 18th???:



Hotter at that time of night in mid March for any that this old bugger can recall!

Just hope there's no fires.

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#1456817 - 12/03/2018 18:44 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1282
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not liking the look of those charts at all
P 😨😨
Bad day for any type of fire that is
Remotely going

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#1456944 - 13/03/2018 12:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 797
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Got the feeling the models (apart from GFS)are winding back - having the change earlier and with considerably more moisture. Thoughts?

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#1456982 - 13/03/2018 14:30 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1282
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep tb, u could be right as accessg has
Been all over the more moisture scenario
For the weekend?
Hope it wins because gfs looks really bad for
Heat and wind Sunday!!

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#1457032 - 13/03/2018 19:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1282
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
gfs still very average indeed for Sunday!!
In terms of heat and wind!

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#1457033 - 13/03/2018 19:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1282
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Haven't heard any real updates on how
They are traveling on the Seaview fire,other
Than the fact it's still not contained and
Still a watch and act

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#1457054 - 13/03/2018 20:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1282
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Really struggling to identify which way this
Weekend will fall? Moisture or heat and wind

Accessg is still saying tonight that the change
Comes earlier and more moisture with
It on Sunday not letting it heat up.

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#1457055 - 13/03/2018 20:59 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 797
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Fascinating to look at the contrast between models for Sunday 18/3. Compare, especially ACCESS G and GFS.

The GFS modelling is, in fact, something out-of-the-box: at 2pm you've got winds exceeding 50kph over much of central/north-central and parts of western district, exceeding 70kph in northern Mallee. Temperatures exceeding mid-30Cs and up to 40C over much of the State.

ACCESS G is contrast in virtually every respect.

Seems to this uneducated mind that the contrast between models is unusual to this degree???

What do others think?

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