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#1457047 - 13/03/2018 20:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2851
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Weary
Cyclones aren't really that difficult to predict given the technology we have available now ~Thomash
Direct quote by that FB page, Really??



If they're not that difficult to predict, then I guess the same applies to Financial Markets as well. What a crackup.

Drama not only sells news papers but weather subscriptions as well.
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I hate winter

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#1457048 - 13/03/2018 20:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
sharjay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 989
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
wasnt she only doing something like 20km/hr earlier today.. can she ramp up the speed still at this stage and make it to the required 45km or will conditions stop that


Edited by sharjay (13/03/2018 20:50)

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#1457049 - 13/03/2018 20:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7049
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Needs to do 45-50km/h to beat the trough.


yep and it's not happening.

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#1457050 - 13/03/2018 20:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2851
Loc: collingwood park
Yeah, nah Linda's a no show. Bit of rain would of been good. Creeks need a good flush so I can go crabbing before the seasons done lol
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I hate winter

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#1457052 - 13/03/2018 20:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 481
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
She is fast though right?
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#1457058 - 13/03/2018 21:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6789
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
In the morning tomorrow TC Linda some time should be extra Tropical low I think if it's moved into the cool waters.

If it's is going to be going hear the SE of qLD.


Edited by Mathew (13/03/2018 21:10)
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season. > tl 03.72mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 6.3mm month 6.3mm / 3.6mm

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#1457059 - 13/03/2018 21:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
certainly is motoring at the moment
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#1457062 - 13/03/2018 21:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: sharjay]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: sharjay
wasnt she only doing something like 20km/hr earlier today.. can she ramp up the speed still at this stage and make it to the required 45km or will conditions stop that



Hey Sharjay. I think 45klms an hour would surely have to be at the upper end of the historical data for past Cyclones. I would think that 45klms/hr would most likely be considered an outlier in the context of probability and Standard Deviations. I really can't remember a system reaching such a speed over water. Most of the numbers I see are generally within the 10klm/hr to 30klm/hr range for systems within the Australian region.


Edited by MangroveJack70 (13/03/2018 21:39)

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#1457064 - 13/03/2018 21:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5242
If anyone's interested in the Bureau's tech bulletin for Linda:


" Tropical cyclone Linda has steadily developed during the past 24 hours. The
system currently lies under northerly deep layer shear of approximately 15-20
knots, and this is evident in the distribution of deep convection around the
system. There is also evidence of dry air wrapping around the northern side of
the system. Despite this, the system has maintained banding and convection near
the centre through today.

Intensity is estimated at 35 knots [10 minute mean]. Dvorak analysis has used a
curved band pattern averaging a 0.6 to 0.7 wrap during the previous few hours.
DT is 3.0. MET is 1.5 and PAT is 2.0. The final T was based on the DT. This
estimate is supported by the morning ASCAT pass suggested marginal gales
extending through the eastern and southern quadrants.

Movement has been to the south during the past 24 hours under the influence of a
mid level ridge to the east, and trough to the west. During the next 24 hours,
an easterly steering influence will build to the south of the system and it
should adopt a more southwesterly track. On Thursday this influence should break
down again, and the system will be steered predominantly by the mid-level ridge
to the east - first southerly, then southeasterly away from the Queensland
coast.

Development is expected to be slow or nonexistent during the next 24 hours. The
system will move into greater deep layer shear associated with an upper trough
over eastern Australia. The interaction with this trough is expected to cause
the system to lose its tropical cyclone structure and transition into a
subtropical low pressure system later on Wednesday. "

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#1457065 - 13/03/2018 21:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 481
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: sharjay
wasnt she only doing something like 20km/hr earlier today.. can she ramp up the speed still at this stage and make it to the required 45km or will conditions stop that



Hey Sharjay. I think 45klms an hour would surely have to be at the upper end of the historical data for past Syclones. I would think that 45klms/hr would most likely be considered an outlier in the context of probability and Standard Deviations. I really can't remember a system reaching such a speed over water. Most of the numbers I see are generally within the 10klm/hr to 30klm/hr range for systems within the Australian region.

Yeah sort of what I was thinking, but I was more in range of ten to twenty something kph

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#1457067 - 13/03/2018 21:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6789
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season. > tl 03.72mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 6.3mm month 6.3mm / 3.6mm

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#1457068 - 13/03/2018 21:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3383
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Got her skates on, Himawari showing a good SW movement.

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#1457070 - 13/03/2018 21:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Flowin]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: sharjay
wasnt she only doing something like 20km/hr earlier today.. can she ramp up the speed still at this stage and make it to the required 45km or will conditions stop that



Hey Sharjay. I think 45klms an hour would surely have to be at the upper end of the historical data for past Syclones. I would think that 45klms/hr would most likely be considered an outlier in the context of probability and Standard Deviations. I really can't remember a system reaching such a speed over water. Most of the numbers I see are generally within the 10klm/hr to 30klm/hr range for systems within the Australian region.

Yeah sort of what I was thinking, but I was more in range of ten to twenty something kph


Yeah, the range was quite broad. Would be interesting to see some stats on various systems. One day i'll get to that.

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#1457072 - 13/03/2018 21:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
If anyone's interested in the Bureau's tech bulletin for Linda:


" Tropical cyclone Linda has steadily developed during the past 24 hours. The
system currently lies under northerly deep layer shear of approximately 15-20
knots, and this is evident in the distribution of deep convection around the
system. There is also evidence of dry air wrapping around the northern side of
the system. Despite this, the system has maintained banding and convection near
the centre through today.

Intensity is estimated at 35 knots [10 minute mean]. Dvorak analysis has used a
curved band pattern averaging a 0.6 to 0.7 wrap during the previous few hours.
DT is 3.0. MET is 1.5 and PAT is 2.0. The final T was based on the DT. This
estimate is supported by the morning ASCAT pass suggested marginal gales
extending through the eastern and southern quadrants.

Movement has been to the south during the past 24 hours under the influence of a
mid level ridge to the east, and trough to the west. During the next 24 hours,
an easterly steering influence will build to the south of the system and it
should adopt a more southwesterly track. On Thursday this influence should break
down again, and the system will be steered predominantly by the mid-level ridge
to the east - first southerly, then southeasterly away from the Queensland
coast.

Development is expected to be slow or nonexistent during the next 24 hours. The
system will move into greater deep layer shear associated with an upper trough
over eastern Australia. The interaction with this trough is expected to cause
the system to lose its tropical cyclone structure and transition into a
subtropical low pressure system later on Wednesday. "



Thanks Ken. You can definitely see the dry air on the imaging.

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#1457078 - 13/03/2018 21:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Flowin]
sharjay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 989
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: sharjay
wasnt she only doing something like 20km/hr earlier today.. can she ramp up the speed still at this stage and make it to the required 45km or will conditions stop that



Hey Sharjay. I think 45klms an hour would surely have to be at the upper end of the historical data for past Syclones. I would think that 45klms/hr would most likely be considered an outlier in the context of probability and Standard Deviations. I really can't remember a system reaching such a speed over water. Most of the numbers I see are generally within the 10klm/hr to 30klm/hr range for systems within the Australian region.

Yeah sort of what I was thinking, but I was more in range of ten to twenty something kph

thanks guys... thinking back to the past fews years i have been watching cyclones i certainly now remember no cyclone getting speeds like that..silly me. she is motoring along though looking at himawari. looks like that eye mentioned before has gone in last frame


Edited by sharjay (13/03/2018 21:51)

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#1457079 - 13/03/2018 21:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3383
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
At this rate she be knocking on the door for breakfast.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/03/2018 21:56)

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#1457086 - 13/03/2018 22:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5242
Shear, SST, and deep moisture all looking bad for Linda along her path - her time as a TC is limited:



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#1457087 - 13/03/2018 22:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 481
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
The factors degrading strength outlook appear compelling

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#1457089 - 13/03/2018 22:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Shear, SST, and deep moisture all looking bad for Linda along her path - her time as a TC is limited:





smile

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#1457098 - 14/03/2018 08:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Linda (Coral Sea 90P) - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
rip
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