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#1456774 - 12/03/2018 15:25 NT Tropical cyclone season 2018
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Finally the NT has something on the horizon.Both EC and GFS have a low forming just north of Darwin and the Tiwi Islands towards the end of the week.Both models show the birth of a cyclone that may impact Darwin on Friday before heading sw to the Kimberley.

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#1456779 - 12/03/2018 15:48 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Bom access has the low intensifying then moving slightly east for a crossing near Maningrida.

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#1457154 - 14/03/2018 14:43 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
Willoughby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/05/2003
Posts: 991
Loc: Darwin NT
Warruwi 256km showing the developing low nicely now. Models are poor to initialise it.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR772.loop.shtml

JTWC:

Quote:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.5S 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10 KNOTS) DUE TO A
POINT SOURCE OVER 92S THAT IS FUELING ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS 92S REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER TAU 24 AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THERE EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER 92S WILL TRACK OVER WATER ALONG THE COAST OR OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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#1457193 - 14/03/2018 20:07 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Warruwi radar is showing increased organisation.Its always good to watch systems like this in real time.Latest gfs and current ec showing that Darwin might escape anything too heavy,but they are varying with every update except for the tracks.The radar will be the most accurate observation for the moment.

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#1457283 - 15/03/2018 16:47 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
A cyclone watch was declared at 2.00 pm for the top end from daly river mouth to milingimbi including the tiwi Islands.Sorry I'm using a very worn 1'st gen ipad and can't copy and paste.

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#1457284 - 15/03/2018 16:55 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
CycloneTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/01/2015
Posts: 29
Loc: Mackay
Headline:
A Tropical Cyclone is expected to form off the north coast on Friday.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Milingimbi to Daly River Mouth, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low at 12:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 9.2 degrees South, 130.9 degrees East , 250 kilometres north of Milikapiti and 285 kilometres northwest of Croker Island .
Movement: east at 13 kilometres per hour .

An intensifying tropical low north of the Tiwi Islands is expected to move southeast across the Arafura Sea today before turning towards the north coast of the Top End during Friday. The low is expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity during Friday evening. The system will then turn towards the southwest during Saturday and move into the Timor Sea late on Saturday or early Sunday.


Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 km/h may develop between the Tiwi Islands and Goulburn Island during Friday evening. Gales may extend to Milingimbi if the tropical cyclone takes a more eastwards track.

Gales may also develop between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth including Darwin in the early hours of Saturday morning if the tropical cyclone passes through the Van Diemen Gulf and maintains intensity. However, if the tropical cyclone crosses the coast east of the Cobourg Peninsula on Friday night, the tropical cyclone will likely weaken before approaching Darwin, reducing the chance of gales being experienced.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to develop along the north coast on Friday then extend into the northwest Top End on Saturday.


Recommended Action:
NTES advises communities under Watch:
- Prepare your home, yard and family for a cyclone, finalise your emrgency kit;
- Decide NOW where you will shelter. At home, with friends or family, or a public shelter, where available;
- If you plan to leave the area, leave while it is safe to do so.

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#1457299 - 15/03/2018 19:30 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Thanks Tim

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#1457302 - 15/03/2018 20:02 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
If it gets going it will be called Marcus.

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#1457325 - 15/03/2018 22:00 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
It's interesting that the only current cyclone activity other than an ex cyclone is not attracting any interest on the forum. Is it a nimby thing?

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#1457337 - 15/03/2018 22:56 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Its more a QLD thing...😬... dont worry darwindix were watching alright and thinking that you may be in for a Cat 1 dust up....

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#1457341 - 16/03/2018 01:36 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
It's very close to being named I'd say...has definitely picked up some rotation tonight...

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#1457343 - 16/03/2018 05:59 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1870
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: darwindix
It's interesting that the only current cyclone activity other than an ex cyclone is not attracting any interest on the forum. Is it a nimby thing?


It's population based unless it is a monster M8, W.A is even worse than the N.T yet they often get a lot of systems that kick off in the GoC or Arafura.

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#1457345 - 16/03/2018 07:40 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2455
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looks impressive on satpic, far better than Linda ever did. Note track map upgraded wind field overnight, could be a Cat 2 now on his way past.

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#1457358 - 16/03/2018 09:41 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Some good images on Darwin radar now.

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#1457360 - 16/03/2018 10:00 Re: NT Tropical cyclone season 2018 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25297
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
a specific thread for this system has been started yesterday


http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...a_M#Post1457312
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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