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#1457162 - 14/03/2018 16:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1575
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Radar picking up some showers starting to enter the 256. I think the low may come closer than first thought with sqaully showers may impact brisbane tonight - thoughts ?
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#1457164 - 14/03/2018 16:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3303
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
0% chance

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#1457166 - 14/03/2018 17:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Meteye seems to have it doing a loop.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
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#1457167 - 14/03/2018 17:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Ex Linda still seems to blow well on Cato Is. with winds around 80 & gusts close to 100 km/hr.
Lovely low level circulation on Himawari.

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#1457168 - 14/03/2018 17:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1168
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Surely MetEye is off its rocker

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#1457169 - 14/03/2018 17:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
The track shown on Meteye is simply the same one as the final official track map for Linda, except it goes out to 5 days.

The official track map is based on models, persistence, uncertainty of initial position/historical track errors and can be manually adjusted.

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#1457170 - 14/03/2018 17:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3303
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Kato Is. is where the weathers at..

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#1457171 - 14/03/2018 17:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Amazing how Linda trying to build some high cloud & gets immediately sheared off. Any idea how long the shearing will go on?

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#1457182 - 14/03/2018 19:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10470
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A reasonable onshore shower here around midday delivered 5.6mm.

Worth posting the final Tech bulletin that was issued earlier this afternoon:
Quote:
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0234 UTC 14/03/2018
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Linda
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 2300 UTC
Latitude: 21.7S
Longitude: 157.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [252 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar:
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 14/0500: 22.0S 155.8E: 030 [060]: 040 [075]:
+12: 14/1100: 22.9S 155.6E: 045 [080]: 035 [065]:
+18: 14/1700: 24.0S 155.4E: 055 [105]: 035 [065]:
+24: 14/2300: 25.1S 155.6E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]:
+36: 15/1100: 26.8S 156.7E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]:
+48: 15/2300: 28.3S 157.9E: 110 [200]: 030 [055]:
+60: 16/1100: 28.6S 159.1E: 130 [235]: :
+72: 16/2300: 28.5S 160.0E: 145 [270]: :
+96: 17/2300: 26.8S 159.9E: 190 [355]: :
+120: 18/2300: 24.4S 156.0E: 280 [515]: :

REMARKS:
The system has transitioned into a deep subtropical low under the influence of strong vertical wind shear and dry mid level air infiltrating the circulation.
The LLCC is now well displaced to the north of any deep convection. The deep convection itself has also shown a marked decrease over the last 6 to 8 hours. A large swathe of gales extends well to the south of the system due to the pressure gradient between ex-Linda and the ridge to the south; surface
observations from Cato Island within this area have been consistently above 34 knots for the past 12 hours, and recently reached 45 knots, and this has been set as the current intensity. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with the LLCC greater than 3/4 of a degree from the strong temperature gradient. DT is 1.5. MET and PAT agree. The final T of 1.5 was based on the DT. CI held at 2.5.

The system will remain in the area of strong vertical wind shear associated with an upper trough over eastern Australia, and is not expected to regain tropical characteristics.

Movement has recently been to the west due to a transient interaction with another small low to the north. Later today, the system should move back onto a southwesterly track under the influence of a mid level ridge to the east, and trough to the west. On Thursday the system should be steered predominantly by a strong upper trough over Queensland and a mid-level ridge to its east - first southerly, then potentially southeasterly away from the Queensland coast depending on the strength of the subtropical low.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
No further technical bulletins will be issued for this system.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 3.6mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 3 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1316.8mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 126 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1457195 - 14/03/2018 20:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
ACCESS-R hasn't exactly had the best performance with TC's in the past and Linda is no exception.

It even missed the actual position of the LLCC of ex-Linda by hundreds of km in its own analysis run made at 00z this morning (not to mention the fact that it's consistently going for that crazy "approaching the central coast" scenario for days) - these graphics below are courtesy of Weatherzone Layers:





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#1457200 - 14/03/2018 20:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
lol Steve.

The shearing won't matter much now since ex-Linda has been torn apart and no longer has a TC structure. Once it loses a lot of its tropical characteristics, TC dynamics don't operate.

At this stage, it still looks like its remains will curve south (and possibly SE) before hovering around erratically off the coast til the weekend as a dying system.
Here's some track guidance which shows the varying steering influences on the low level structure of its remains:



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#1457204 - 14/03/2018 22:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 207
Loc: Kingsford (Sydney)
Interesting seeing that Ken.

Did you end up going back to see how EC did over all?

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#1457216 - 15/03/2018 08:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4833
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 1.8mm.
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#1457238 - 15/03/2018 11:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW TC/Ex-TC Linda - Windy with Large Surf & Coastal Showers - March 14-15th 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Sandbank Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 26

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