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#1457206 - 14/03/2018 23:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 245
...I notice the 20 degree isotherm on the same page cpc matches the pronounced movement of the last frame above - would a kelvin wave cause thermocline to lift so dramatically? I suppose not but I dont really know.

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#1457207 - 15/03/2018 00:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 245
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
...I notice the 20 degree isotherm on the same page cpc matches the pronounced movement of the last frame above - would a kelvin wave cause thermocline to lift so dramatically? I suppose not but I dont really know.


Actually the movement in the animation is reminiscent of a standing wave - two waves moving towards each other from opposite directions and coalescing, or a wave and a medium (current) doing so - of course that would be making more of it than a glitch.

Interesting to see if there is any documentation of standing waves occurring on the thermocline.


Edited by snowbooby (15/03/2018 00:31)

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#1457211 - 15/03/2018 07:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3457
Loc: Buderim
Every kelvin wave i've seen has been over a much larger area. My first thought was maybe a TAO mulfunction - its about the right size to be caused by one dodgy buoy, however the cool water seems to be centered around 170E, and the TAO buoys are at 165E which is right on the edge of the cool anomaly. Next one is 180E. Maybe they got a dodgy argo float reading or something.

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#1457221 - 15/03/2018 09:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Every kelvin wave i've seen has been over a much larger area. My first thought was maybe a TAO mulfunction - its about the right size to be caused by one dodgy buoy, however the cool water seems to be centered around 170E, and the TAO buoys are at 165E which is right on the edge of the cool anomaly. Next one is 180E. Maybe they got a dodgy argo float reading or something.


That would be my suspicion too.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1457231 - 15/03/2018 10:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2861
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Every kelvin wave i've seen has been over a much larger area. My first thought was maybe a TAO mulfunction - its about the right size to be caused by one dodgy buoy, however the cool water seems to be centered around 170E, and the TAO buoys are at 165E which is right on the edge of the cool anomaly. Next one is 180E. Maybe they got a dodgy argo float reading or something.


Sort of ironic, don't you think, that we've been talking about satellite accuracy/error rate and poor ol' TAO has a meltdown smile

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#1457234 - 15/03/2018 11:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3457
Loc: Buderim
Its in the wrong spot to be TAO. And data direct from TAO does not show the cool spot.

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#1457235 - 15/03/2018 11:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
I wonder if the sea level anomaly spike is spurious also?



Looks to be in about the same spot as the tdepth anomaly.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1457239 - 15/03/2018 11:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Hi guys, would this be any way at all influenced by La Nina or cool neutral Pacific?

Tropical wave activity strengthens monsoon trough
A pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Indian Ocean has become weak and is having little influence on northern Australian rainfall patterns. However, non-MJO tropical waves in the Australian region are having a discernible effect on northern Australia. International models agree the MJO will remain weak for at least the next seven days.

The atmospheric circulation associated with an equatorial Rossby wave in the western Pacific Ocean is invigorating the monsoon trough across Australia's north by increasing the cross-equatorial wind-flow in the region. This equatorial Rossby wave, which is a westward moving tropical pulse of low pressure, is forecast to aid the westward extension of the monsoon trough across the Timor Sea later in the week. Weather models suggest that other tropical lows may form along the monsoon trough, with the highest probability of formation being near the north coast of the Northern Territory. However, model uncertainty suggests tropical lows could form in any region between the northern Kimberley of Western Australia to Cape York Peninsula in Queensland in the coming week.
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#1457245 - 15/03/2018 12:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2861
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well you'd think a west-ward moving wave would drag surface anomalies west; and sub-surface anomalies east?

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#1457339 - 15/03/2018 23:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 245
Originally Posted By: Locke
I wonder if the sea level anomaly spike is spurious also?



Looks to be in about the same spot as the tdepth anomaly.


As far as I know sea surface heights are calculated from satellite imagery in part at least

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#1457409 - 16/03/2018 15:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2861
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Don't think we have to worry about the SOI for at least next 2 weeks if EC comes off - 2 direct hits on Darwin by TC's, inc a possible Cat 3 next week.

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#1457844 - 18/03/2018 23:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1841
Loc: Kingaroy
Something odd is happening with the T-Depth Animation of the Pacific.

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#1457880 - 19/03/2018 11:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1879
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Yes i agree something is up or an error. But when i first saw it i thouht it was a error but has got even more extreme..
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#1457888 - 19/03/2018 13:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1841
Loc: Kingaroy
It's starting to show up on the upper ocean heat content map too, if it starts getting bigger then it could mean either an error or we could be in for a monster La Nina later this year.

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#1457889 - 19/03/2018 13:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
I'm wondering if Snowbooby's theory of a standing wave might have some credence albeit I've never seen such a thing before on the tdepth.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1457893 - 19/03/2018 14:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7366
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looks like a glitch to me. Doesn't show up on the BoM one:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDYOC007.gif

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#1457955 - 19/03/2018 21:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Originally Posted By: Locke
What the hell just happened with the tdepth animation at CPC.

Must be a glitch.



I don't think it is.. On the 9th it developed and 14th has started to expand.. You think if it was a glitch it would of reset on the 14th.
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#1457958 - 19/03/2018 21:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7366
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/974020717179211777

"The second sentence in this tweet is a joke.".

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#1457961 - 19/03/2018 21:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2413
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Maybe moses is there. grin

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#1457970 - 19/03/2018 22:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3457
Loc: Buderim
As well as the unusual cooling there is unusual warming either side of the cool spot, although not as obvious. the enomalies also go quite deep into water that rarely shows much temp change.

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