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#1457464 - 16/03/2018 23:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3534
Loc: Broome


Heading westwards and building to Cat 2 .

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#1457466 - 16/03/2018 23:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3534
Loc: Broome


TC Marcus's tour of duty across the NT and North Kimberley will take it into very favorable conditions with high SSTs and low wind shear .Also a nice outflow ..interesting to see how it ramps up from Monday onwards.
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#1457469 - 17/03/2018 00:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
It is still pretty calm in Darwin for the moment .A little bit of light rain ,not much wind .No massive pressure drop yet.Wait and see what happens.

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#1457494 - 17/03/2018 09:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
gecko Offline
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Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 411
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Now a Cat 2 as it's about to cross the coast near Cape Hotham.

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#1457495 - 17/03/2018 09:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Hurricane force Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
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Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Marcus is looking good on radar, now a Cat 2

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#1457497 - 17/03/2018 09:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2209
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yep, as I forecast 3 days ago, Cat 2 and intensifying, not giving a F about land. Nice tight eye too, will be some wild stuff in that eye wall.

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#1457498 - 17/03/2018 09:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Things are starting to get Intersting in Darwin now.The wind is starting to pick up.Gusts to 60 kmh and steady rain.First breakage,One of my wife's vase just blew over.

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#1457499 - 17/03/2018 09:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: gecko]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
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Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 594
Loc: Bardon 4065
Originally Posted By: gecko
Now a Cat 2 as it's about to cross the coast near Cape Hotham.


What is it like in Darwin at the moment gecko? From the obs looks like the wind is picking up a bit.
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#1457500 - 17/03/2018 10:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2209
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
If anyone has seen the latest EC, itís going to get mega scary next week for you guys, with a Cat 4/5 cyclone on your doorstep.

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#1457503 - 17/03/2018 10:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Foehn Correspondent]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 411
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent

What is it like in Darwin at the moment gecko? From the obs looks like the wind is picking up a bit.

Dunno - I'm o/s!!
Everytime i go away, we get interesting weather.

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#1457504 - 17/03/2018 10:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
From looking at the radar and from what I'm seeing outside it doesn't look like there is a lot of rain in this system.

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#1457506 - 17/03/2018 10:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: darwindix]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2209
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: darwindix
From looking at the radar and from what I'm seeing outside it doesn't look like there is a lot of rain in this system.


March cyclones are always drier on their southern sides - wait til the monsoon wrap-around comes and itíll be plenty wet.

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#1457508 - 17/03/2018 10:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 139
Loc: Noonamah
Hopefully the land interaction will weaken it a bit. Getting strong gusts but sustained wind isn't strong. I'm already getting branches down but they only seem to be dead ones. Some green palm fronds coming down. Not a lot of rain so far, 10.4 mm. We're 999.0 hPa at the moment. I've had lights flickering a bit but some areas are already without power.

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#1457509 - 17/03/2018 10:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Gusts at 80 kmh now.the eye is about 25 Kim's away.

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#1457511 - 17/03/2018 10:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3534
Loc: Broome


Rain and gales looks like its coming your way within the next few hours.

Your trees as has ours have already taken a beating from lows, TCs and storms this season.

Stay safe you guys and hopefully not too much damage from this one .
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#1457512 - 17/03/2018 11:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Just got hit by a big gust 100 kmh plus.It has blown one of our palms onto the power lines.We have still got power on but maybe for not much longer.

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#1457513 - 17/03/2018 11:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Quote:
Tropical Cyclone Marcus has intensified over the Van Diemen Gulf during the last few hours and is now a Category 2 strength tropical cyclone. The cyclone is expected pass close to Darwin today, before moving into the Timor Sea later this evening. During Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Marcus is expected to approach the north Kimberley as a Category 2 strength cyclone.



Sure did and built a eyewall to. Take no notice of the intensity
on the micro's.The presentation says it all.


Progression over the hours from a small wrspped core to a eyewall. waiting on the next micro's will be interesting.








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#1457518 - 17/03/2018 11:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 139
Loc: Noonamah
995.6 hPa, wind gusting to 90, sustained about 50. Luckily over the past few years I've removed most of the African Mahoganys on my place. Reports of Mahoganys down over roads in Darwin already. Lights keep flickering or going off, the electronic clocks are blinking, but still haven't lost power completely. Tempted to go start the generator now in case it gets too wild to go out later.

Looks like it's just east of Lee Point.

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#1457519 - 17/03/2018 11:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
990.8 hPa on the barometer now.100 kph plus gusts coming through.

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#1457524 - 17/03/2018 11:49 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Kino]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: darwindix
From looking at the radar and from what I'm seeing outside it doesn't look like there is a lot of rain in this system.


March cyclones are always drier on their southern sides - wait til the monsoon wrap-around comes and itíll be plenty wet.


These vt plots are very good.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/australia_IVT.php


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