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#1457567 - 17/03/2018 16:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
princessweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 185
Loc: Ocean Grove Vic
I'd like to add agreement to the horrific lack of care factor shown by the media, if this had landed in any part of the east coast itwould have gone live coverage.

Im in Victoria, and hubby was working in North WA, few tc went through and only info I could get to tell him was on here.

Totally appalling that apparently gography equals interest.

Hope everyone's ok up there and where Marcus decides to go next good luck!

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#1457574 - 17/03/2018 17:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome

Marcus down to Cat 1 now because of the interaction with the land but not for long me thinks.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 1:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 9 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South, 130.4 degrees East , 20 kilometres south of Dundee Beach and 70 kilometres southwest of Darwin .
Movement: southwest at 21 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marcus was weakened to a Category 1 tropical cyclone near the coast south of Dundee Beach. During the next few hours, Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move off the Northern Territory coastline between Dundee Beach and Channel Point and into the Timor Sea. Tropical Cyclone Marcus is forecast to re-intensity to Category 2 before approaching the northeast Kimberley during Sunday. The tropical cyclone is expected to move off the northwest Kimberley coast during Monday morning and continue moving westwards, into the Indian Ocean.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457591 - 17/03/2018 19:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Keep him drifting South ever so slightly each update and then let the Ridge take hold of him. That way Broome will get a few good storms on the Southern Edge.
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#1457597 - 17/03/2018 20:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12944
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
The lack of mainstream media coverage is disgusting. This was a category 2 cyclone hitting a capital city for christs sake.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1457601 - 17/03/2018 20:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Media just hype it up anyway... darwinians wouldn’t have been stocking up on bread and milk anyway, like some were doing in central QLD last week, regardless of hype.... different breed up there... most would just call Marcus ‘a bit of a blow’....

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#1457602 - 17/03/2018 20:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2381
Loc: Chillagoe
That's my experience of living in Darwin Sepo. Completely different attitudes, to everything.

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#1457614 - 17/03/2018 21:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12944
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yup, I lived there for 12 years, know exactly what Darwin is like as well.

Still doesn’t excuse the lack of media coverage in the rest of the country though.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1457615 - 17/03/2018 21:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2381
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Yup, I lived there for 12 years, know exactly what Darwin is like as well.

Still doesn’t excuse the lack of media coverage in the rest of the country though.

No it doesn't, but for people on the east coast nothing exists west of the Great Dividing Range and never has.

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#1457625 - 17/03/2018 21:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome
Hes a coming towards the Kimberley...

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 5:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South, 129.8 degrees East , 145 kilometres southwest of Darwin and 365 kilometres east northeast of Kalumburu .
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marcus, Category 1, is moving off the Northern Territory coastline between Dundee Beach and Channel Point and into the Timor Sea. Tropical Cyclone Marcus is forecast to re-intensity to Category 2 before approaching the northeast Kimberley during Sunday. The tropical cyclone is expected to move off the northwest Kimberley coast during Monday morning and continue moving westwards, into the Indian Ocean.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457636 - 17/03/2018 22:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome

Marcus making its way through all that dry air and pushing it southwards ..for now anyway.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457669 - 18/03/2018 02:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome


Gathering itself together nicely now and tightening up its LLC atm.

Marcus has favourable conditions for intensification during the next 12 hours.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457672 - 18/03/2018 06:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2371
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
A bit of video from around Darwin...

TC Marcus

Cat 2 seems about right.
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#1457675 - 18/03/2018 08:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1638
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Great to see there wasn't too much major damage in Darwin.
Here is a time-lapse of Himawari images for the last 24 hours. (Updates every 30 minutes)

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pilbara.aspx

Marcus is powering along!
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1457686 - 18/03/2018 09:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome

From BOM Technical bulletin a couples of hours ago.

Marcus has a good outflow channel and steady inflow ...low wind shear in the next couple of days ....Predicting it make it to a Cat5 after west of the Kimberley on Monday while staying north of the ridge....


Recent satellite imagery has shown a curved band developing around the low level
centre, with a wrap of around 0.9. This yields a DT of 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on
a slight developing trend, with no adjustment made for Pattern. FT and CI set at
3.5. This is consistent with CIMSS and NESDIS ADT [3.6 and 3.4 respectively].
SATCON has the system at 60 knots [one minute mean]. The system's intensity is
currently set to 55 knots [ten minute mean].

The upper level ridge lies just to the south of TC Marcus. Development is being
assisted by strong upper divergence and good outflow, particularly on the
equatorward side of the system. CIMSS vertical wind shear has decreased to
easterly at around 15 knots, and system-relative shear would be less than 10
knots given the current motion.

The system is expected to maintain a W/SW track during Sunday as a mid latitude
trough moves east across the Great Australian Bight and pushes the mid level
ridge over southern Australia further north, creating stronger easterly
steering.

As the systems moves through the Timor Sea over the next 6-12 hours, development
is likely to continue at a standard rate or faster. It is possible that the
system could reach Category 3 intensity before crossing the coast later on
Sunday morning.

Steering will remain easterly long term due to a strong mid level ridge to the
south, taking the system off the northwest Kimberley coast on Monday morning and
then into the Indian Ocean. Once over water again, the system is likely to
continue intensifying, and may reach Category 5 intensity when it is well north
of the Australian mainland.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457687 - 18/03/2018 09:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome

Never to late for those OCC guys to come over and hire a boat and get amongst the action....... wink smile
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457714 - 18/03/2018 11:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Yeah Marcus wrapped a core again last night.






Snapshot of Marcus on Wednesday hwrf 10 metre V/large wind field
sub 900mb and 157kts. A beast roaming the Indian ocean.

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#1457717 - 18/03/2018 11:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Orebound]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Orebound
A bit of video from around Darwin...

TC Marcus

Cat 2 seems about right.

Good job Orebound. Cheapest chase ever. cheers
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1457719 - 18/03/2018 12:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Yeah i like his videos to they are similar to Jame's vids from
around the globe. No over hyping commentary and selfies.

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#1457723 - 18/03/2018 12:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2371
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Thanks guys.
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Videos

Photos

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#1457739 - 18/03/2018 13:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Marcus appears to displaying a nascent eye on visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15S/html5-vis-long.html

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