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#1457742 - 18/03/2018 13:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Willoughby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/05/2003
Posts: 991
Loc: Darwin NT
Here's some video I stuck together from yesterday:

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#1457750 - 18/03/2018 14:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Marcus appears to displaying a nascent eye on visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15S/html5-vis-long.html



Latest 89h pass supports.

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#1457759 - 18/03/2018 15:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Orebound]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Orebound
Thanks guys.



Really cool mate. You have some serious stones being out there in that stuff. Any damage to your Car ?

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#1457760 - 18/03/2018 15:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Marcus appears to displaying a nascent eye on visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15S/html5-vis-long.html



Latest 89h pass supports.



Hey Rossby. Noticed that earlier today. What is a Nascent Eye ? Would rather hear it from the Horses Head than Dr Google. smile

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#1457769 - 18/03/2018 15:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2380
Loc: Chillagoe
Thanks for the videos Orebound and Willoughby.

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#1457777 - 18/03/2018 16:28 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Strange, I know it's only a cat 2 cyclone and Territorians are famous for their resilience, but I just went through all the TV stations, including the weather channel and nothing, zilch, nada on the passage of Marcus through Darwin. It may be different on local Darwin TV, but if this were to have hit any of the regional centres of Queensland - especially Brisbane - there would have been wall to wall live coverage. Hmm, I hope you don't feel neglected by the rest of the country Darwin and its surrounds, but keep safe all the same.


The interesting thing is there are scientific papers saying that a cyclone in the Top End/ North West often creates the ideal conditions for heatwaves throughout the SE of Australia, strong winds and high Fire risks. At least they got that today. Seems to be dominating the media news left right and centre today.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013GL058257
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1457778 - 18/03/2018 16:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1909
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Defin Popeye - poleward outflow channels pumping all that dead dry air into the Hadley Cell over southern Aus

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#1457791 - 18/03/2018 17:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71

Hey Rossby. Noticed that earlier today. What is a Nascent Eye ? Would rather hear it from the Horses Head than Dr Google

Nascent eye on visible is sinking air in the vortex seen as the dimple on visible and is the precursor to an eyewall formation. Had the TC stayed over water the inner core would have completed.

In short Marcus was just approaching typhoon or cat1 sshs strength again before crossing into WA

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#1457809 - 18/03/2018 19:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


Just a ukmet run but it looks interesting n funky.

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#1457826 - 18/03/2018 21:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6786
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Look out WA big cat 5 making U turn again I think.

This is by weather zone.



Edited by Mathew (18/03/2018 21:34)
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
12/17/17 Dec 7:52pm GR 0.00mm > 24 past 0.00mm > 0.00mm

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#1457830 - 18/03/2018 21:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6786
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
It's is always some things to watch out all the time here I think with these things I mean.


Edited by Mathew (18/03/2018 21:58)
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
12/17/17 Dec 7:52pm GR 0.00mm > 24 past 0.00mm > 0.00mm

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#1457832 - 18/03/2018 21:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Rossby

Hey Rossby. Noticed that earlier today. What is a Nascent Eye ? Would rather hear it from the Horses Head than Dr Google

Nascent eye on visible is sinking air in the vortex seen as the dimple on visible and is the precursor to an eyewall formation. Had the TC stayed over water the inner core would have completed.

In short Marcus was just approaching typhoon or cat1 sshs strength again before crossing into WA


Thanks Rossby. Much appreciated.

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#1457840 - 18/03/2018 22:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome

Looks like a quick intensification when moving over the warm waters of the Buccaneer Archipelago and then westward ho.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 5:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 14.8 degrees South, 126.0 degrees East , 90 kilometres southwest of Kalumburu and 175 kilometres east northeast of Kuri Bay .
Movement: west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is moving across the far north Kimberley and has weakened to a category 1 system. Once TC Marcus moves back over the ocean off the northwest Kimberley early Monday morning, it will re-intensify and become a Severe Tropical Cyclone. The system will track westwards away from the WA mainland from Monday with no further impact on northern communities
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457843 - 18/03/2018 22:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome
Collier Bay is going to have a bit rough and wild waters in the next 10 hours especially up on the north eastern side near Kuri Bay.

The 10 metre tides along with a TC surge will makes the currents in those waters very dangerous.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457847 - 19/03/2018 00:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Cable Beach swells will be clean and pumping on Tuesday. 10 metre tide to. Bugger there goes Cable Beach. Might do an 8 hr gopro timelapse. Be a bit of fun.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1457868 - 19/03/2018 10:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome

Onward Marcus goes powering towards the West at 19km/hr.


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457869 - 19/03/2018 10:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome

Be very surprised if there wasn't any powerful whirlpools forming in the Collier Bay and the Buccaneer Archipelago..

TCs even small ones tend to whip up the shallow seas and makes it very hard to navigate the area, especially when combined with the huge 10 metre tides atm.

Many years ago a mate of mine while trying to enter the Walcott Inlet in a yacht at night got caught in one, he said it was super scary .
He got sucked towards it but luckily managed to motor out before he was in the vortex after being spun around a few times .

Not to mention he lost a jib sail off the boat in the process and was bilging all night to get rid of the ocean that had come aboard.
He also had to throw away his pants after the event. frown

Big ones can drill you down to the bottom of the ocean.



_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457901 - 19/03/2018 15:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


Marcus is displaying a pineye under the canopy likely there
will be explosive intensification when the eye clears out.

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#1457913 - 19/03/2018 16:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome


Adele Island 100kms north of Cape Leveque just recorded wind at 128km/he from the ENE.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457932 - 19/03/2018 18:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 139
Loc: Noonamah
Already Cat 3


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