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#1457934 - 19/03/2018 18:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3581
Loc: Broome


Glad Marcus isn't coming our way .

Cat 3 is always going to hazardous .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457935 - 19/03/2018 19:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


GFS likes it as a possible powerful extra-tropical cyclone
threat for the SW of WA down stream.Also sends another land
low over your way. As always models will chop and change.

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#1457937 - 19/03/2018 19:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


looks a 100kt system now on micro = to a major hurricane sshs

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#1457938 - 19/03/2018 19:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1641
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Marcus is now starting to get some nice structure as he continues to intensify, on this timelapse of the last 24 hours of satellite images.

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pilbara.aspx

(Updates every 30 minutes)
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1457945 - 19/03/2018 20:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
structure is already there Marcus has a full eyewall.

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#1457951 - 19/03/2018 20:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby
structure is already there Marcus has a full eyewall.


https://weather.us/satellite/western-australia/top-alert-10min.html#play

Fully cleared out pineye Dvorak technique struggles with pineye
cyclones and usually it takes awhile for All agencies to catch up
with the intensity. Nothing new happens most times with pin-eyes.

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#1457963 - 19/03/2018 21:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Quote:
Some of the largest ADT intensity estimate errors
result from storms with very small eyes, often referred
to as “pinholes.” Pinhole eye cases represent situations
where the eye is sufficiently small to be improperly
sampled by current geostationary satellite infrared imagery
with spatial resolutions of 4 km, but can otherwise
be observed with other higher-resolution channels
(visible). These cases typically result in significant underestimates of intensity by the ODT/AODT algorithms
because of incorrect scene-type


https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF975.1


Most of you guys already know this anyway.

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#1457965 - 19/03/2018 21:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
Originally Posted By: Rossby


GFS likes it as a possible powerful extra-tropical cyclone
threat for the SW of WA down stream.Also sends another land
low over your way. As always models will chop and change.


I hope not!!

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#1457974 - 19/03/2018 22:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


200MB Nice example of the equatorial and poleward duel outflow channels Marcus has established. Nothing more really i can add to this thread.

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#1457975 - 19/03/2018 22:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
Thank you...

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#1457979 - 19/03/2018 22:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3581
Loc: Broome


Marcus looking the goods now to go all the way to Cat 5 as predicted on that westward track..

The interest now will be when it will do the left hand turn towards the coast.
As the ridge diminishes it will allow such curving to occur.

Sustaining factors and timing will definitely come into play when Marcus starts to track to south east.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457989 - 20/03/2018 09:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby


Marcus is displaying a pineye under the canopy likely there
will be explosive intensification when the eye clears out.



Sat data did finally catch it and confirm.

2018MAR19 151000 5.0 972.8 +2.8 90.0 5.0 5.0 6.5 MW ON OFF OFF -26.82 -79.14 EYE/P -99 IR 66.1 -15.15 -120.56 SPRL HIM-8 29.2


JTWC best tracks also caught up n bumped Marcus up to 100kts.

15S MARCUS 180319 1800 15.3S 119.9E SHEM 100 959
https://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file.

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#1458003 - 20/03/2018 10:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3581
Loc: Broome

Techincal info from BOM a few hours ago....but could you get much better conditions for intensification.

Marcus has started to take a more westerly track under the influence of a strong
ridge to the south.

Vertical wind shear is around 5-10 knots from the ENE on CIMSS 18 UTC imagery.
There is good divergence, with good poleward outflow and increasing equatorial
outflow.

Ocean Heat Content is favourable and SSTs are around 30C along the forecast
track. Shear should remain low over the next few days. NWP is in strong
agreement with a mid level ridge steering the system generally towards the west
over the next two days.

STC Marcus is forecast to intensify into a category 5 system later Tuesday or
Wednesday morning as it continues to track towards the west.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1458032 - 20/03/2018 12:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Quote:
WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 119.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A RAGGED 10 NM
EYE THAT INSTILLS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) HEDGED LOWER
DUE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUD FILLING IN THE EYE OBSERVED AROUND
191800Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS (30
TO 31C). ALL THESE FACTORS SUPPORT CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 15S WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA.
FROM TAU 24 TO 48, THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE SLOWLY AND THEN BEGINS
TO WEAKEN DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHEASTLY VWS AS IT BEGINS
TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD. AS TC 15S CONTINUES POLEWARD ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR
AFTER TAU 72, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AT ABOUT TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z,
200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Last advisory as/per JTWC for comparison

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#1458035 - 20/03/2018 12:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5246
Ensembles (from EC, UK and GFS) still showing superbly tight track and intensity consensus as Marcus continues west then curves south like it was set in stone:



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#1458039 - 20/03/2018 12:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
As a cat 4, im surprised we cant see a defined eye.
_________________________
Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1458051 - 20/03/2018 13:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 490
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
BoM's tech bulletin this morning stated forecast lowest central pressure in about +48 hours at 923 hPA. I would love to stress test one of my analogue barometers to that pressure; but realistically I don't want to be anywhere near Marcus.

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#1458057 - 20/03/2018 14:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71

Appears on visible to be undergoing eyewall replacement cycle.
likely to be a much larger eye when it completes. When it clears
out again and warms. Marcus should have no problem reaching cat5
status.

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#1458058 - 20/03/2018 14:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2326
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That se side still pretty ragged hey; dry air ingestion no doubt.

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#1458060 - 20/03/2018 14:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2441
Loc: Chillagoe
Just looking at the current BOM National Radar Loop,the eye is quite obvious. (At 1.15pm)
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml


Edited by cold@28 (20/03/2018 14:17)

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