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#1458064 - 20/03/2018 15:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: cold@28]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Just looking at the current BOM National Radar Loop,the eye is quite obvious. (At 1.15pm)
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml


Yeah Bom sat shows a cloud filled eye not cleared out.



radar only shows coverage of the east outer band.


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#1458069 - 20/03/2018 15:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5636
This eye probability forecast is based on current IR satellite data, the broadscale environment around the TC using GFS data and other ingredients such as shear, recent intensity trends, tangential 850hpa winds, etc.... and is calibrated to past cases:




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#1458070 - 20/03/2018 15:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
I can certainly see the eye on vis sat now and its very small.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1458073 - 20/03/2018 15:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
Wow, what a cyclone!

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#1458078 - 20/03/2018 15:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
This eye probability forecast is based on current IR satellite data, the broadscale environment around the TC using GFS data and other ingredients such as shear, recent intensity trends, tangential 850hpa winds, etc.... and is calibrated to past cases:






Not sure how to interrupt that grafic ken. We know Marcus had a eyewall on the 16th @1000Z


Edited by Rossby (20/03/2018 15:55)

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#1458079 - 20/03/2018 16:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5636
I don't recall it having any kind of distinguishable eye at that time though? I do remember something that resembled hot towers going up near its core (see 2nd image) but I don't recall any kind of actual eye. These are the various satellite images from about that time:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01803161000.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01803160910.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01803161147.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01803160914.jpg

The subsequent TCWC tech bulletin also didn't make any mention of an eye either.

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#1458082 - 20/03/2018 16:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
I do it was a clear cut 'eyewall' on the 16th




Meted is free


Edited by Rossby (20/03/2018 16:15)

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#1458085 - 20/03/2018 16:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


Latest microwave is a much more symmetrical cyclone very impressive.

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#1458087 - 20/03/2018 16:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5636
Well that's not 1000z then is it.... it was around 18z to 21z. It didn't show up on any colour-enhanced IR imagery for the same times so I suspect it may have been covered by a cirrus overcast which the AMSU and SSMIS microwave imagery managed to overcome i.e. an eye but not a clear-cut one that would show up on conventional IR and visible imagery:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.4E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg

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#1458092 - 20/03/2018 16:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2883
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
FWIW I recall seeing an eye on radar; so probably covered like Ken has suggested.

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#1458095 - 20/03/2018 17:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5636
It'd probably also explain why the eye probability forecast didn't pick it up because it uses conventional IR satellite imagery and not microwave sounding or other sensors i.e. it's more for clear eyes that show up on visible/IR imagery or to a person standing on the ground.

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#1458101 - 20/03/2018 17:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3645
Loc: Broome

Look at all that moisture being spilled out over the ocean.

Marcus is a nice big system with lots of moisture circulating around the core.


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1458132 - 20/03/2018 19:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


icing on cake clearly also shows Marcus building the core + the
eye.

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#1458137 - 20/03/2018 20:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby

Appears on visible to be undergoing eyewall replacement cycle.
likely to be a much larger eye when it completes. When it clears
out again and warms. Marcus should have no problem reaching cat5
status.







There bit of agreement out there it seems on the eyewall replacement cycle.

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#1458140 - 20/03/2018 20:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Well that's not 1000z then is it.... it was around 18z to 21z. It didn't show up on any colour-enhanced IR imagery for the same times so I suspect it may have been covered by a cirrus overcast which the AMSU and SSMIS microwave imagery managed to overcome i.e. an eye but not a clear-cut one that would show up on conventional IR and visible imagery:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.4E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg



You can actually see the half the eye on those lower res nrl images. Been using and studying microwave's for over 7 years.

All dvorak estimates are done with microwave it clearly shows cloud temps,core structure. If you don't use 36H 37H .....91H then you are not in the game when a system is over water and out
of radar range. Its moot now anyway microwave 16th + ongoing radar showed the wall and the eye. Pls rattle somebody else's
chain who has no understanding. Or challenge the eye on the
16th on twitter #Marcus.. Nothing more to say on here about it.

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#1458141 - 20/03/2018 20:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5636
Rossby: is there something wrong with you that you can't grasp the basic concept of "an eye but not a clear-cut one that would show up on conventional IR and visible imagery" ?

I'm now understanding why a number of users on here have found you obnoxious to the point that you've been banned in the past.

I haven't done anything to you, nor attacked you until you started on this unprovoked hostile attitude. You even PM'd me assuming I was accusing you of clickbait posts.

No wonder I don't get on this threads as much these days.

I'll leave you to it and your petty BS.

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#1458142 - 20/03/2018 20:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Nobody was attacking you. Just pointing out with the facts
you was wrong. I guess everyone including pro mets were wrong
and you are right. I doubt that probs graphic was even operational

Cheers

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#1458148 - 20/03/2018 21:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1568
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Rossby, Ken is not arguing. No one cares if there was or was not an eye to Cyclone Marcus at the time proposed by you. It was not noticeable or recognised as a defined eye by many of the conventional weather imagery. Time to move on buddy.
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#1458161 - 20/03/2018 22:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 570
Loc: South West Sydney
Can we get back to tracking the cyclone, thanks.
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#1458165 - 21/03/2018 00:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 615
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Tech bulletin by BoM at 1258 UTC forecasting min central pressure 917 hPA in 24 hrs. Interested to see How low will he get.

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