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#1458167 - 21/03/2018 00:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3581
Loc: Broome

Yes Marcus looks quite impressive atm. Luckily he is not doing a left hand turn right now .

Good to see a large TC like Marcus staying off the coast.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1458217 - 21/03/2018 11:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
He is very impressive! The track is similar to Albi, glad it will dissipate before hitting South West.

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#1458224 - 21/03/2018 11:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Still no define eye...odd

The wind shows a eye but visible and infrared imagery dont...eyes still cover up...I wonder if it will clear. Cos I always like the look of a cyclone with a defined eye


Edited by rainthisway (21/03/2018 11:40)
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Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1458228 - 21/03/2018 11:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4464
Loc: Brisbane
I think the eye is very small on Marcus that makes it very difficult to pick out.

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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1458234 - 21/03/2018 12:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3581
Loc: Broome

CIMSS IR-NHC pic form a couple of hours ago .
Yes eye is small and seems to appear and then disappear but Marcus look great even if no apparent eye.


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1458245 - 21/03/2018 12:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3581
Loc: Broome

Cat 5 now...

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1458254 - 21/03/2018 13:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
The eye is covered in high level cloud.
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Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1458256 - 21/03/2018 13:19 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 490
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
No rain gauges out where Marcus is travelling.
Lucky we have satellite estimation of rainfall, and it sure looks like some sustained intense rain where he is.
https://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/ATLA/latest_big_half_hourly_gridded.jpg
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4285
https://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/24hr_rain_dump.gif


Edited by Flowin (21/03/2018 13:21)
Edit Reason: added another link

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#1458285 - 21/03/2018 16:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1641
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Wow.. He is huge and looks bigger than the state of QLD now!
Here is a time lapse of the last 24 hours.
http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pilbara.aspx
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Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

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#1458287 - 21/03/2018 17:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: pabloako]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4135
Loc: El Arish
Looks set to still intensify over the next 24hrs.

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 21/0600: 14.6S 110.8E: 025 [050]: 110 [205]: 925
+12: 21/1200: 14.9S 109.6E: 040 [070]: 125 [230]: 919
+18: 21/1800: 15.3S 108.5E: 050 [095]: 125 [230]: 919

+24: 22/0000: 15.9S 107.6E: 065 [120]: 120 [220]: 925
+36: 22/1200: 17.4S 106.4E: 085 [155]: 100 [185]: 947
+48: 23/0000: 19.6S 105.6E: 105 [190]: 090 [165]: 955
+60: 23/1200: 22.0S 105.7E: 120 [225]: 070 [130]: 971
+72: 24/0000: 24.4S 106.4E: 140 [265]: 050 [095]: 986
+96: 25/0000: 27.2S 107.3E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 997
+120: 26/0000: 30.0S 110.1E: 275 [505]: 030 [055]: 998

My son's name is Marcus and my Wife is Debbie....
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#1458301 - 21/03/2018 18:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
Here's a link if you want to keep watching the action...

Keep tracking Marcus...

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#1458302 - 21/03/2018 18:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Weary Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1069
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
thanks Fuji grin
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#1458321 - 21/03/2018 20:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Has a tiny visible eye now
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Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1458325 - 21/03/2018 20:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: FujiWha]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
Thanks for this, doesn't he look amazing!

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#1458334 - 21/03/2018 23:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3581
Loc: Broome


Definitely becoming more symmetrical as he intensifies.

Eye very easy to see in the last few hours....
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1458335 - 21/03/2018 23:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3581
Loc: Broome


Yes Cori He does look awesome ...luckily spinning out there out of harms way.

Hopefully get a bit of rain down the south coast in the long term from Marcus even if by then he may only be a bit of a trough.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1458349 - 22/03/2018 07:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 342
Loc: Goulburn NSW
what is the record lowest central pressure for this region?
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#1458353 - 22/03/2018 08:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4269
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Marcus looks like a real monster.

The central pressure shown on the BOM's latest chart is just 921mb, about 27.19" on the old scale. That's as low as I recall seeing on an Australian chart. That's probably not the lowest it's gone.

Here's the view on 'Layers' just now. Note the bits of white in the cloud, that would be about -87 degrees (about 20,000 metres?):



Edited by Steve777 (22/03/2018 08:41)

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#1458388 - 22/03/2018 11:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25281
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
for those discussing the size of marcus vs the size of yasi, here is a good write up by Nitso on facebook.

Marcus V Yasi

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June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1458395 - 22/03/2018 12:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3581
Loc: Broome


Marcus going good for now but lower SSTs and unfavourable windshear will be the inhibiting factors as he moves more southwards by this time tomorrow.

But for now still going strong as a high end Cat 5.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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