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#1458413 - 22/03/2018 15:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 340
Loc: Goulburn NSW
916mb on the 11am synoptic!
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#1458415 - 22/03/2018 16:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: DVC]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4134
Loc: El Arish
Still the same by the Tech bulletin....

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 175 knots [325 km/h]
Central Pressure: 916 hPa
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#1458427 - 22/03/2018 18:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3534
Loc: Broome


On the south west track now ,no longer riding that ridge westwards.

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#1458453 - 22/03/2018 22:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4185
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Marcus down to 914 Mb on the latest synoptic, 26.99". That's pretty intense.

It has its Wikipedia entry, a work in progress: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Marcus#Meteorological_history


Edited by Steve777 (22/03/2018 22:27)

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#1458472 - 23/03/2018 01:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3534
Loc: Broome


Going south from here onwards. Unfortunately going to loose his moisture feeding supply after tonight.

But made his way in the record books with a low pressure reading of 914 hPa.
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#1458508 - 23/03/2018 09:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3534
Loc: Broome


From BOM and its seems all downhill from its peak yesterday morning from now on .
On the sat imagery it still has a lot of integrity and looks very impressive but unfortunately this system is passed its prime and will slowly disintegrate in the next 2 days.

REMARKS:
Marcus was located using EIR imagery. Marcus reached peak intensity during
Thursday morning, since then it has shown signs of weakening with a cooling
trend in the eye temperatures and a warming trend in the surrounding grey shade.




The influence of the mid-level ridge over the movement of Marcus is waning and
the amplifying mid-level trough to the southwest of the cyclone will become the
dominant steering mechanism into Friday. Marcus is likely to move in a southerly
direction over the next 24 hours, then gradually south southeasterly as the
steering becomes more northwesterly ahead of the trough.

CIMSS Vertical wind shear is 10 knots from the ENE. The system is still within
an area of low shear however the shear will start to increase steadily as the
system tracks in a more southward direction. There is still good upper
divergence, particularly south of the system with dual outflow channels
[poleward and equatorward]. As the system moves further south today, closer to
the amplifying mid-level trough, these conditions will become less favourable.

Ocean Heat Content [OHC] is favourable and SSTs are around 26-28C along the
forecast track in the short term. Once Marcus tracks south of 20S, OHC is less
favourable and SSTs decrease below 26/27C.

Marcus is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday.
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#1458601 - 23/03/2018 19:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3534
Loc: Broome

Still going strong but not for too much longer.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 21.3 degrees South, 105.8 degrees East , 860 kilometres west of Exmouth and 900 kilometres west northwest of Carnarvon .
Movement: south at 26 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus is weakening as it moves southward, well away from the WA mainland. Marcus will continue moving generally southward and weaken further during Friday and Saturday. Marcus will weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday or early Sunday, well off the west coast of WA.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1458698 - 24/03/2018 12:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3534
Loc: Broome

Marcus weakened to Cat 2 ...probably be only a low by this time tomorrow.
All sustaining factors working against the system now .

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 25.1 degrees South, 107.0 degrees East , 670 kilometres west of Carnarvon and 860 kilometres west northwest of Geraldton .
Movement: south southeast at 27 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is weakening as it moves south and will continue to weaken further to below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday or early Sunday, well off the west coast of WA.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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