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#1457312 - 15/03/2018 21:13 Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Moving discussion into here -

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 4:45 pm ACST on Thursday 15 March 2018

Headline:
A Tropical Cyclone is expected to form off the NT north coast on Friday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Daly River Mouth to Milingimbi.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 9.3 degrees South 131.0 degrees East, estimated to be 240 kilometres north of Milikapiti and 270 kilometres northwest of Croker Island.

Movement: east at 10 kilometres per hour.

An intensifying tropical low north of the Tiwi Islands is expected to move southeast across the Arafura Sea today before turning towards the north coast of the Top End during Friday. The low is expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity during Friday evening. The system will then turn towards the southwest during Saturday and move into the Timor Sea late on Saturday or early Sunday.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 km/h may develop between the Tiwi Islands and Goulburn Island during Friday evening. Gales may extend to Milingimbi if the tropical cyclone takes a more eastwards track.

Gales may also develop between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth including Darwin in the early hours of Saturday morning if the tropical cyclone passes through the Van Diemen Gulf and maintains intensity. However, if the tropical cyclone crosses the coast east of the Cobourg Peninsula on Friday night, the tropical cyclone will likely weaken before approaching Darwin, reducing the chance of gales being experienced.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to develop along the north coast on Friday then extend into the northwest Top End on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises communities under Watch:

- Prepare your home, yard and family for a cyclone, finalise your emergency kit;

- Decide NOW where you will shelter - at home, with friends or family, or a public shelter, where available;

- If you plan to leave the area, leave while it is safe to do so.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Thursday 15 March.


Edited by Mick10 (24/03/2018 03:23)
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1457361 - 16/03/2018 10:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 7:55 am ACST on Friday 16 March 2018

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone is expected to form off the NT north coast today.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cape Hotham to Maningrida, including Tiwi Islands.

Watch Zone
WA/NT Border to Cape Hotham and Maningrida to Milingimbi, including Darwin.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 10.0 degrees South 132.4 degrees East, estimated to be 245 kilometres northeast of Milikapiti and 130 kilometres north of Croker Island.

Movement: southeast at 13 kilometres per hour.

An intensifying tropical low north of the Tiwi Islands is moving southeast across the Arafura Sea and is expected to turn south towards the north coast of the Top End and reach tropical cyclone intensity during today. The system will turn towards the southwest during Saturday and move into the Timor Sea late on Saturday or early Sunday.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 km/h may develop between Cape Hotham and Maningrida, including the Tiwi Islands during today. Gales may extend to Milingimbi tonight if the tropical cyclone takes a more easterly track.

Gales may develop between Cape Hotham and Daly River Mouth, including Darwin, during early Saturday morning if the tropical cyclone passes through the Van Diemen Gulf and maintains intensity. However, if the tropical cyclone crosses the coast east of the Cobourg Peninsula tonight, the tropical cyclone will likely weaken before approaching Darwin, reducing the chance of gales being experienced. As the system moves into the Timor Sea later on Saturday, gales may develop further south along the coast to the WA/NT Border.

A STORM TIDE between Milikapiti and Maningrida, including the Van Diemen Gulf, is expected as the cyclone centre crosses the coast tonight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING tonight and into Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected along the north coast today, extending into the northwest Top End on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises residents from Cape Fourcroy to Goulburn Island:

-Prepare for gales and heavy rain during today into this evening;

-Move indoors and shelter as the conditions deteriorate;

-Stay indoors and avoid travel during the storm;

-Stay away from beaches and immediate coastal areas as dangerous coastal flooding may occur.

Cape Hotham to Maningrida, including the Tiwi Islands.

- Be ready for wet and windy conditions to arrive in your area;

- Finalise your home preparations;

- Check your family, friends and neighbours understand and are prepared;

- Move indoors and take shelter as the weather deteriorates.

NTES advises communities under Watch:

- Prepare your home, yard and family for a cyclone, finalise your emergency kit;

- Decide NOW where you will shelter - at home, with friends or family, or a public shelter, where available;

- If you plan to leave the area, leave while it is safe to do so.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am ACST Friday 16 March.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1457362 - 16/03/2018 10:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1928 UTC 15/03/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.8S
Longitude: 132.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [129 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 16/0000: 10.2S 132.3E: 040 [080]: 035 [065]: 1001
+12: 16/0600: 10.6S 132.4E: 055 [100]: 035 [065]: 1000
+18: 16/1200: 11.0S 132.3E: 065 [125]: 035 [065]: 998
+24: 16/1800: 11.4S 132.0E: 080 [145]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 17/0600: 12.3S 130.7E: 100 [185]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 17/1800: 13.0S 129.1E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 995
+60: 18/0600: 13.6S 127.1E: 140 [255]: 045 [085]: 993
+72: 18/1800: 14.1S 124.6E: 155 [290]: 050 [095]: 990
+96: 19/1800: 14.8S 119.3E: 200 [370]: 070 [130]: 978
+120: 20/1800: 14.6S 113.4E: 290 [535]: 090 [165]: 960
REMARKS:
Latest position is based on a recent ASCAT pass, IR satellite imagery and 1741Z
SSMI microwave imagery. Overnight, deep convection has developed and obscured
the centre. The system appears relatively well-stacked to 500 hPa. The upper
ridge lies to the south, with CIMMS winds indicating moderate easterly shear of
20 to 30 knots.

Dvorak intensity analysis is based on curved band pattern wrap of 0.4 yielding a
DT of 2.5. MET and PT are 2.0 so FT is set at 2.0.

Initial track movement is to the southeast under the influence of a westerly
wind surge to the north of the system. The tropical low is forecast to turn
south and move close to the north coast of the Northern Territory today due to a
mid level ridge to the east. The system is expected to curve to the southwest
and towards the Timor Sea in 24 to 48 hours as a mid latitude trough moves east
across the Great Australian Bight and pushes the mid level ridge over southern
Australia further north, creating an easterly steering. Development is expected
to be at a standard rate, aided by a Rossby wave arriving over western Arafura
Sea and Timor Sea today, decreasing environmental shear closer to the NT coast
and continued favorouble low level surges.

Development may be hindered by land influences and ingestion of dry air on the
outer western flank. Once the tropical low moves into the Timor Sea during the
weekend, development is likely to continue at a standard after briefly
entangling with the north Kimberley coast. Steering will remain easterly long
term due to a strong mid level ridge to the south, taking the system into the
Indian Ocean.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1457373 - 16/03/2018 11:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
FKAU01 ADRM 152228
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180315/2100Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOW
NR: 06
PSN: S1000 E13224
MOV: SE 07KT
C: 999HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 16/0300 S1024 E13230
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 16/0900 S1048 E13230
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 16/1500 S1112 E13218
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 16/2100 S1136 E13154
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180316/0130Z

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#1457380 - 16/03/2018 12:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Should get interesting considering this system already is displaying a banding eye.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01803160010.GIF



Edited by Rossby (16/03/2018 12:02)

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#1457382 - 16/03/2018 12:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
will be a name cyclone on next update surely
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

Top
#1457383 - 16/03/2018 12:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2185
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Defin a TC now IMO and risk of being a strong Cat 2 as it passes by Darwin.

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#1457385 - 16/03/2018 12:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Fun days ahead for Darwin/Nth Kimberley crew. If he cranks a little more a nice CAT 2 over Darwin would be a bit of a show for them. I'm being greedy and hope a little southerly shift now means Broome gets it within at least 150kms of us so we get some more rain/hopefully a few squalls (not being to hopeful on that though). Other than that Kalumburu might be the only other pace it influences through out its life. Unless it can recurve to smash Perth with 250mm and 120km/hr winds, storm surge and some major floods down the track in 10 days time. Marcus could still yet go down in History as another TC Alby.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1457387 - 16/03/2018 12:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Named system confirmed. Looks like will be to closr to land get up to a cat 2. Will be close though.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

Top
#1457388 - 16/03/2018 12:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
18z sars sounding had a moist saturated atmosphere. looks a text book tc sounding for further intensification.

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?model=GFS&runtime=2018031518&hour=18&coords=-12.26%2C133.8&id=&parcel=ml&weather=severe&submit=Generate+New+Sounding§or=WLD&level=850&product=temp


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#1457395 - 16/03/2018 13:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby
18z sars sounding had a moist saturated atmosphere. looks a text book tc sounding for further intensification.

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?model=GFS&runtime=2018031518&hour=18&coords=-12.26%2C133.8&id=&parcel=ml&weather=severe&submit=Generate+New+Sounding§or=WLD&level=850&product=temp




Also traversing over a area of v/high ohc


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#1457406 - 16/03/2018 15:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2185
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
This one is little compared to end of next week - check out EC. Cat 3 direct hit Darwin.

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#1457412 - 16/03/2018 16:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2185
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Now expected to get to Cat 2, like I commented yesterday. Can't see it weakening before landfall on current track - plenty of water to keep core intact and friction will increase band severity.

Can it make Cat 3? Possible now.

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#1457413 - 16/03/2018 16:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
ianee123 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 65
Loc: Gladstone, QLD
Nice little warm up for next weeks beauty.

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#1457419 - 16/03/2018 16:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Quote:
FXXT01 ADRM 160400
IDY26500

Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC

ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20180316 0000 UTC

Cyc Name Date Time Lat Long C.Pres Max Wind(kts)

MARCUS 20180316 0000 -10.1 132.5 996.5 54.9
MARCUS 20180316 0600 -10.6 132.7 992.0 54.4
MARCUS 20180316 1200 -11.0 132.8 993.1 52.0
MARCUS 20180316 1800 -11.4 132.5 989.4 55.6
MARCUS 20180317 0000 -11.7 132.1 992.2 52.2
MARCUS 20180317 0600 -12.2 131.9 991.9 42.1
MARCUS 20180317 1200 -12.7 131.4 994.1 39.4
MARCUS 20180317 1800 -13.2 130.8 990.3 39.8
MARCUS 20180318 0000 -13.6 129.8 995.0 52.2
MARCUS 20180318 0600 -13.8 128.9 991.2 53.6
MARCUS 20180318 1200 -14.1 127.9 991.2 61.4
MARCUS 20180318 1800 -14.1 126.3 994.6 44.1
MARCUS 20180319 0000 -14.1 125.1 996.5 49.9



Note: wind speed is max wind at 10m in kts

This information and associated graphic is available at :

http://www.bom.gov.au/reguser/by_user/bomw0170/tc_track1.shtml

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#1457441 - 16/03/2018 19:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Quote:
FKAU01 ADRM 160732
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180316/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: MARCUS
NR: 08
PSN: S1054 E13218
MOV: SSW 06KT
C: 990HPA
MAX WIND: 45KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 16/1200 S1118 E13212
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 16/1800 S1142 E13154
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 17/0000 S1212 E13118
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 17/0600 S1242 E13042
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180316/1330Z



No interest on the board. cheers

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#1457442 - 16/03/2018 19:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2185
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I'm interested Rossby, been watching. Think those forecasts may be undercooked tho.


Edited by Kino (16/03/2018 19:51)

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#1457451 - 16/03/2018 21:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Its been a season of LOWS and TC's intensifying over land here in Broome. Tropical Low (Hilda) smacked Broome from the North over land and was updated to CAT 2 as it hit water due to winds being up over 72knts. Joyce was a fizzer. The 3rd Inland LOW sat there and went off its nuts over Broome with more 35-60knts winds for an entire 18 hr period. The 4th system TC Kelvin crossed as a CAT 1 and then went inland showing signs of intensifying to CAT 3 levels.

SO..... what does this mean. The old theory interacting with land weakens Systems has had a 0 from 4 accuracy this season so it wouldn't surprise me that a few flimsy little islands and low level lands will disrupt TC Marcus on its way to Darwin. I mean its forecast to get to CAT 2 tonight and then what weaken to a CAT 1 after crossing a 20kms wide bit of moisture laden land. Nahhh. I think the saturated earth of the Top End in March combined with a fairly sweet looking system will have Darwin absolutely flogged tomorrow. CAT 3 is a real chance.

disclaimer: popeye's forecasts claim no responsibility for crazy and false claims haha.
Go hard Marcus and put on a show. Stay safe everyone in Darwin.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1457452 - 16/03/2018 21:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1836
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Should be plenty of heat and moisture in Fog Bay to sustain it as a cat 2 before landfall over Gunn Point, and not a hell of a lot of elevation landwise to be had either.
Is there some sheer or other influence they think will come into play to degrade it or just interaction with land that will keep a rein on things ?

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#1457454 - 16/03/2018 21:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Latest track map sneaking up to CAT 2 for a brief period then back to CAT 1 for 48hrs and 800kms of which most of that is over open water of Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. WTF. I would love to see what actually happens in that period. I guess BOM will probably be right as they are Mets and stuff and know how to read things better but Little Marcus is cranking along. CAT 1, 800kms for 48hrs. I dont believe it but will wait and see.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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