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#1457312 - 15/03/2018 21:13 Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25297
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Moving discussion into here -

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 4:45 pm ACST on Thursday 15 March 2018

Headline:
A Tropical Cyclone is expected to form off the NT north coast on Friday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Daly River Mouth to Milingimbi.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 9.3 degrees South 131.0 degrees East, estimated to be 240 kilometres north of Milikapiti and 270 kilometres northwest of Croker Island.

Movement: east at 10 kilometres per hour.

An intensifying tropical low north of the Tiwi Islands is expected to move southeast across the Arafura Sea today before turning towards the north coast of the Top End during Friday. The low is expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity during Friday evening. The system will then turn towards the southwest during Saturday and move into the Timor Sea late on Saturday or early Sunday.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 km/h may develop between the Tiwi Islands and Goulburn Island during Friday evening. Gales may extend to Milingimbi if the tropical cyclone takes a more eastwards track.

Gales may also develop between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth including Darwin in the early hours of Saturday morning if the tropical cyclone passes through the Van Diemen Gulf and maintains intensity. However, if the tropical cyclone crosses the coast east of the Cobourg Peninsula on Friday night, the tropical cyclone will likely weaken before approaching Darwin, reducing the chance of gales being experienced.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to develop along the north coast on Friday then extend into the northwest Top End on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises communities under Watch:

- Prepare your home, yard and family for a cyclone, finalise your emergency kit;

- Decide NOW where you will shelter - at home, with friends or family, or a public shelter, where available;

- If you plan to leave the area, leave while it is safe to do so.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Thursday 15 March.


Edited by Mick10 (24/03/2018 03:23)
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1457361 - 16/03/2018 10:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25297
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 7:55 am ACST on Friday 16 March 2018

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone is expected to form off the NT north coast today.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cape Hotham to Maningrida, including Tiwi Islands.

Watch Zone
WA/NT Border to Cape Hotham and Maningrida to Milingimbi, including Darwin.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 10.0 degrees South 132.4 degrees East, estimated to be 245 kilometres northeast of Milikapiti and 130 kilometres north of Croker Island.

Movement: southeast at 13 kilometres per hour.

An intensifying tropical low north of the Tiwi Islands is moving southeast across the Arafura Sea and is expected to turn south towards the north coast of the Top End and reach tropical cyclone intensity during today. The system will turn towards the southwest during Saturday and move into the Timor Sea late on Saturday or early Sunday.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 km/h may develop between Cape Hotham and Maningrida, including the Tiwi Islands during today. Gales may extend to Milingimbi tonight if the tropical cyclone takes a more easterly track.

Gales may develop between Cape Hotham and Daly River Mouth, including Darwin, during early Saturday morning if the tropical cyclone passes through the Van Diemen Gulf and maintains intensity. However, if the tropical cyclone crosses the coast east of the Cobourg Peninsula tonight, the tropical cyclone will likely weaken before approaching Darwin, reducing the chance of gales being experienced. As the system moves into the Timor Sea later on Saturday, gales may develop further south along the coast to the WA/NT Border.

A STORM TIDE between Milikapiti and Maningrida, including the Van Diemen Gulf, is expected as the cyclone centre crosses the coast tonight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING tonight and into Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected along the north coast today, extending into the northwest Top End on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises residents from Cape Fourcroy to Goulburn Island:

-Prepare for gales and heavy rain during today into this evening;

-Move indoors and shelter as the conditions deteriorate;

-Stay indoors and avoid travel during the storm;

-Stay away from beaches and immediate coastal areas as dangerous coastal flooding may occur.

Cape Hotham to Maningrida, including the Tiwi Islands.

- Be ready for wet and windy conditions to arrive in your area;

- Finalise your home preparations;

- Check your family, friends and neighbours understand and are prepared;

- Move indoors and take shelter as the weather deteriorates.

NTES advises communities under Watch:

- Prepare your home, yard and family for a cyclone, finalise your emergency kit;

- Decide NOW where you will shelter - at home, with friends or family, or a public shelter, where available;

- If you plan to leave the area, leave while it is safe to do so.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am ACST Friday 16 March.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1457362 - 16/03/2018 10:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25297
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1928 UTC 15/03/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.8S
Longitude: 132.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [129 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 16/0000: 10.2S 132.3E: 040 [080]: 035 [065]: 1001
+12: 16/0600: 10.6S 132.4E: 055 [100]: 035 [065]: 1000
+18: 16/1200: 11.0S 132.3E: 065 [125]: 035 [065]: 998
+24: 16/1800: 11.4S 132.0E: 080 [145]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 17/0600: 12.3S 130.7E: 100 [185]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 17/1800: 13.0S 129.1E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 995
+60: 18/0600: 13.6S 127.1E: 140 [255]: 045 [085]: 993
+72: 18/1800: 14.1S 124.6E: 155 [290]: 050 [095]: 990
+96: 19/1800: 14.8S 119.3E: 200 [370]: 070 [130]: 978
+120: 20/1800: 14.6S 113.4E: 290 [535]: 090 [165]: 960
REMARKS:
Latest position is based on a recent ASCAT pass, IR satellite imagery and 1741Z
SSMI microwave imagery. Overnight, deep convection has developed and obscured
the centre. The system appears relatively well-stacked to 500 hPa. The upper
ridge lies to the south, with CIMMS winds indicating moderate easterly shear of
20 to 30 knots.

Dvorak intensity analysis is based on curved band pattern wrap of 0.4 yielding a
DT of 2.5. MET and PT are 2.0 so FT is set at 2.0.

Initial track movement is to the southeast under the influence of a westerly
wind surge to the north of the system. The tropical low is forecast to turn
south and move close to the north coast of the Northern Territory today due to a
mid level ridge to the east. The system is expected to curve to the southwest
and towards the Timor Sea in 24 to 48 hours as a mid latitude trough moves east
across the Great Australian Bight and pushes the mid level ridge over southern
Australia further north, creating an easterly steering. Development is expected
to be at a standard rate, aided by a Rossby wave arriving over western Arafura
Sea and Timor Sea today, decreasing environmental shear closer to the NT coast
and continued favorouble low level surges.

Development may be hindered by land influences and ingestion of dry air on the
outer western flank. Once the tropical low moves into the Timor Sea during the
weekend, development is likely to continue at a standard after briefly
entangling with the north Kimberley coast. Steering will remain easterly long
term due to a strong mid level ridge to the south, taking the system into the
Indian Ocean.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1457373 - 16/03/2018 11:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
FKAU01 ADRM 152228
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180315/2100Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOW
NR: 06
PSN: S1000 E13224
MOV: SE 07KT
C: 999HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 16/0300 S1024 E13230
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 16/0900 S1048 E13230
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 16/1500 S1112 E13218
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 16/2100 S1136 E13154
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180316/0130Z

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#1457380 - 16/03/2018 12:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Should get interesting considering this system already is displaying a banding eye.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01803160010.GIF



Edited by Rossby (16/03/2018 12:02)

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#1457382 - 16/03/2018 12:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25297
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
will be a name cyclone on next update surely
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1457383 - 16/03/2018 12:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Defin a TC now IMO and risk of being a strong Cat 2 as it passes by Darwin.

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#1457385 - 16/03/2018 12:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Fun days ahead for Darwin/Nth Kimberley crew. If he cranks a little more a nice CAT 2 over Darwin would be a bit of a show for them. I'm being greedy and hope a little southerly shift now means Broome gets it within at least 150kms of us so we get some more rain/hopefully a few squalls (not being to hopeful on that though). Other than that Kalumburu might be the only other pace it influences through out its life. Unless it can recurve to smash Perth with 250mm and 120km/hr winds, storm surge and some major floods down the track in 10 days time. Marcus could still yet go down in History as another TC Alby.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1457387 - 16/03/2018 12:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25297
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Named system confirmed. Looks like will be to closr to land get up to a cat 2. Will be close though.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1457388 - 16/03/2018 12:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
18z sars sounding had a moist saturated atmosphere. looks a text book tc sounding for further intensification.

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?model=GFS&runtime=2018031518&hour=18&coords=-12.26%2C133.8&id=&parcel=ml&weather=severe&submit=Generate+New+Sounding§or=WLD&level=850&product=temp


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#1457395 - 16/03/2018 13:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby
18z sars sounding had a moist saturated atmosphere. looks a text book tc sounding for further intensification.

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?model=GFS&runtime=2018031518&hour=18&coords=-12.26%2C133.8&id=&parcel=ml&weather=severe&submit=Generate+New+Sounding§or=WLD&level=850&product=temp




Also traversing over a area of v/high ohc


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#1457406 - 16/03/2018 15:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
This one is little compared to end of next week - check out EC. Cat 3 direct hit Darwin.

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#1457412 - 16/03/2018 16:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Now expected to get to Cat 2, like I commented yesterday. Can't see it weakening before landfall on current track - plenty of water to keep core intact and friction will increase band severity.

Can it make Cat 3? Possible now.

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#1457413 - 16/03/2018 16:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
ianee123 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 65
Loc: Gladstone, QLD
Nice little warm up for next weeks beauty.

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#1457419 - 16/03/2018 16:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Quote:
FXXT01 ADRM 160400
IDY26500

Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC

ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20180316 0000 UTC

Cyc Name Date Time Lat Long C.Pres Max Wind(kts)

MARCUS 20180316 0000 -10.1 132.5 996.5 54.9
MARCUS 20180316 0600 -10.6 132.7 992.0 54.4
MARCUS 20180316 1200 -11.0 132.8 993.1 52.0
MARCUS 20180316 1800 -11.4 132.5 989.4 55.6
MARCUS 20180317 0000 -11.7 132.1 992.2 52.2
MARCUS 20180317 0600 -12.2 131.9 991.9 42.1
MARCUS 20180317 1200 -12.7 131.4 994.1 39.4
MARCUS 20180317 1800 -13.2 130.8 990.3 39.8
MARCUS 20180318 0000 -13.6 129.8 995.0 52.2
MARCUS 20180318 0600 -13.8 128.9 991.2 53.6
MARCUS 20180318 1200 -14.1 127.9 991.2 61.4
MARCUS 20180318 1800 -14.1 126.3 994.6 44.1
MARCUS 20180319 0000 -14.1 125.1 996.5 49.9



Note: wind speed is max wind at 10m in kts

This information and associated graphic is available at :

http://www.bom.gov.au/reguser/by_user/bomw0170/tc_track1.shtml

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#1457441 - 16/03/2018 19:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Quote:
FKAU01 ADRM 160732
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180316/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: MARCUS
NR: 08
PSN: S1054 E13218
MOV: SSW 06KT
C: 990HPA
MAX WIND: 45KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 16/1200 S1118 E13212
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 16/1800 S1142 E13154
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 17/0000 S1212 E13118
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 17/0600 S1242 E13042
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180316/1330Z



No interest on the board. cheers

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#1457442 - 16/03/2018 19:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I'm interested Rossby, been watching. Think those forecasts may be undercooked tho.


Edited by Kino (16/03/2018 19:51)

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#1457451 - 16/03/2018 21:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Its been a season of LOWS and TC's intensifying over land here in Broome. Tropical Low (Hilda) smacked Broome from the North over land and was updated to CAT 2 as it hit water due to winds being up over 72knts. Joyce was a fizzer. The 3rd Inland LOW sat there and went off its nuts over Broome with more 35-60knts winds for an entire 18 hr period. The 4th system TC Kelvin crossed as a CAT 1 and then went inland showing signs of intensifying to CAT 3 levels.

SO..... what does this mean. The old theory interacting with land weakens Systems has had a 0 from 4 accuracy this season so it wouldn't surprise me that a few flimsy little islands and low level lands will disrupt TC Marcus on its way to Darwin. I mean its forecast to get to CAT 2 tonight and then what weaken to a CAT 1 after crossing a 20kms wide bit of moisture laden land. Nahhh. I think the saturated earth of the Top End in March combined with a fairly sweet looking system will have Darwin absolutely flogged tomorrow. CAT 3 is a real chance.

disclaimer: popeye's forecasts claim no responsibility for crazy and false claims haha.
Go hard Marcus and put on a show. Stay safe everyone in Darwin.
_________________________
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#1457452 - 16/03/2018 21:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1855
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Should be plenty of heat and moisture in Fog Bay to sustain it as a cat 2 before landfall over Gunn Point, and not a hell of a lot of elevation landwise to be had either.
Is there some sheer or other influence they think will come into play to degrade it or just interaction with land that will keep a rein on things ?

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#1457454 - 16/03/2018 21:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Latest track map sneaking up to CAT 2 for a brief period then back to CAT 1 for 48hrs and 800kms of which most of that is over open water of Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. WTF. I would love to see what actually happens in that period. I guess BOM will probably be right as they are Mets and stuff and know how to read things better but Little Marcus is cranking along. CAT 1, 800kms for 48hrs. I dont believe it but will wait and see.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1457464 - 16/03/2018 23:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


Heading westwards and building to Cat 2 .

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457466 - 16/03/2018 23:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


TC Marcus's tour of duty across the NT and North Kimberley will take it into very favorable conditions with high SSTs and low wind shear .Also a nice outflow ..interesting to see how it ramps up from Monday onwards.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457469 - 17/03/2018 00:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
It is still pretty calm in Darwin for the moment .A little bit of light rain ,not much wind .No massive pressure drop yet.Wait and see what happens.

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#1457494 - 17/03/2018 09:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 411
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Now a Cat 2 as it's about to cross the coast near Cape Hotham.

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#1457495 - 17/03/2018 09:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4173
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Marcus is looking good on radar, now a Cat 2

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YTD: 2269.6 mm

June- 55.5mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
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2017- 2190.0mm
________________________
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#1457497 - 17/03/2018 09:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yep, as I forecast 3 days ago, Cat 2 and intensifying, not giving a F about land. Nice tight eye too, will be some wild stuff in that eye wall.

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#1457498 - 17/03/2018 09:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Things are starting to get Intersting in Darwin now.The wind is starting to pick up.Gusts to 60 kmh and steady rain.First breakage,One of my wife's vase just blew over.

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#1457499 - 17/03/2018 09:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: gecko]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 598
Loc: Bardon 4065
Originally Posted By: gecko
Now a Cat 2 as it's about to cross the coast near Cape Hotham.


What is it like in Darwin at the moment gecko? From the obs looks like the wind is picking up a bit.
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#1457500 - 17/03/2018 10:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
If anyone has seen the latest EC, it’s going to get mega scary next week for you guys, with a Cat 4/5 cyclone on your doorstep.

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#1457503 - 17/03/2018 10:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Foehn Correspondent]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 411
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent

What is it like in Darwin at the moment gecko? From the obs looks like the wind is picking up a bit.

Dunno - I'm o/s!!
Everytime i go away, we get interesting weather.

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#1457504 - 17/03/2018 10:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
From looking at the radar and from what I'm seeing outside it doesn't look like there is a lot of rain in this system.

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#1457506 - 17/03/2018 10:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: darwindix]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: darwindix
From looking at the radar and from what I'm seeing outside it doesn't look like there is a lot of rain in this system.


March cyclones are always drier on their southern sides - wait til the monsoon wrap-around comes and it’ll be plenty wet.

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#1457508 - 17/03/2018 10:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
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Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 139
Loc: Noonamah
Hopefully the land interaction will weaken it a bit. Getting strong gusts but sustained wind isn't strong. I'm already getting branches down but they only seem to be dead ones. Some green palm fronds coming down. Not a lot of rain so far, 10.4 mm. We're 999.0 hPa at the moment. I've had lights flickering a bit but some areas are already without power.

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#1457509 - 17/03/2018 10:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Gusts at 80 kmh now.the eye is about 25 Kim's away.

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#1457511 - 17/03/2018 10:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


Rain and gales looks like its coming your way within the next few hours.

Your trees as has ours have already taken a beating from lows, TCs and storms this season.

Stay safe you guys and hopefully not too much damage from this one .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457512 - 17/03/2018 11:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Just got hit by a big gust 100 kmh plus.It has blown one of our palms onto the power lines.We have still got power on but maybe for not much longer.

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#1457513 - 17/03/2018 11:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Quote:
Tropical Cyclone Marcus has intensified over the Van Diemen Gulf during the last few hours and is now a Category 2 strength tropical cyclone. The cyclone is expected pass close to Darwin today, before moving into the Timor Sea later this evening. During Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Marcus is expected to approach the north Kimberley as a Category 2 strength cyclone.



Sure did and built a eyewall to. Take no notice of the intensity
on the micro's.The presentation says it all.


Progression over the hours from a small wrspped core to a eyewall. waiting on the next micro's will be interesting.








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#1457518 - 17/03/2018 11:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
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Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 139
Loc: Noonamah
995.6 hPa, wind gusting to 90, sustained about 50. Luckily over the past few years I've removed most of the African Mahoganys on my place. Reports of Mahoganys down over roads in Darwin already. Lights keep flickering or going off, the electronic clocks are blinking, but still haven't lost power completely. Tempted to go start the generator now in case it gets too wild to go out later.

Looks like it's just east of Lee Point.

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#1457519 - 17/03/2018 11:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
990.8 hPa on the barometer now.100 kph plus gusts coming through.

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#1457524 - 17/03/2018 11:49 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Kino]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: darwindix
From looking at the radar and from what I'm seeing outside it doesn't look like there is a lot of rain in this system.


March cyclones are always drier on their southern sides - wait til the monsoon wrap-around comes and it’ll be plenty wet.


These vt plots are very good.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/australia_IVT.php


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#1457525 - 17/03/2018 11:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Hagrid Offline
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Registered: 13/02/2013
Posts: 258
Loc: Crediton Qld
So how come they don't go to hourly updates?

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#1457526 - 17/03/2018 11:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Hagrid]
pintscc Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 28
They have just announced the switch to hourly updates.

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#1457527 - 17/03/2018 11:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
986.0hPa Nearly a cat 2.

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#1457528 - 17/03/2018 11:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
marakai Offline
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Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1855
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Look's like its just east of the Air Port, bit late for hourly updates.

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#1457533 - 17/03/2018 12:19 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Hagrid Offline
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Registered: 13/02/2013
Posts: 258
Loc: Crediton Qld
982.9 Hp at the air port.

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#1457534 - 17/03/2018 12:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
yep Offline
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Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 419
Loc: Hobart
What was the most recent cyclone that was more intense than this one for the Darwin area ( in terms of wind speeds now underway ) ?

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#1457535 - 17/03/2018 12:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Quote:
Tropical Cyclone Marcus has intensified over the Van Diemen Gulf during the last few hours and is now a Category 2 strength tropical cyclone. The cyclone is expected pass close to Darwin today, before moving into the Timor Sea later this evening. During Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Marcus is expected to approach the north Kimberley as a Category 2 strength cyclone.



Sure did and built a eyewall to. Take no notice of the intensity
on the micro's.The presentation says it all.


Progression over the hours from a small wrspped core to a eyewall. waiting on the next micro's will be interesting.























Eye filled in quite quickly when the core went over land.
Should refire up rapidly when llcc gets back over water.


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#1457536 - 17/03/2018 13:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5228
Loc: Diamond Valley
Strange, I know it's only a cat 2 cyclone and Territorians are famous for their resilience, but I just went through all the TV stations, including the weather channel and nothing, zilch, nada on the passage of Marcus through Darwin. It may be different on local Darwin TV, but if this were to have hit any of the regional centres of Queensland - especially Brisbane - there would have been wall to wall live coverage. Hmm, I hope you don't feel neglected by the rest of the country Darwin and its surrounds, but keep safe all the same.
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#1457537 - 17/03/2018 13:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
pintscc Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 28
I agree, the lack of coverage is somewhat bemusing. Mainstream news websites showing very little, or nothing at all!

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#1457538 - 17/03/2018 13:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


A bit of technical info from BOM .

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0157 UTC 17/03/2018

Name: Tropical Cyclone Marcus


The upper level ridge lies just to the south of TC Marcus. Water vapour imagery
shows good outflow to the NW sector, weaker outflow to the S sector but
constrained outflow to the E. CIMSS vertical wind shear at 17/00Z was easterly
at 19 knots.

The latest position is made with good confidence based on Berrimah radar and is
located jnear Darwin Harbour.

The system is expected to adopt a SW track past Darwin and towards the Timor Sea
over the next 12 to 24
hours as a mid latitude trough moves east across the Great Australian Bight and
pushes the mid level ridge over southern Australia further north, creating a
stronger easterly steering.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus may weaken briefly to below category 2 as it interacts
with the Darwin coastline. Once the tropical low moves into the Timor Sea during
tonight, development is likely to continue at a standard rate or faster,
reaching category 2 prior to corssing the NE Kimbery coast on Sunday. Steering
will remain easterly long term due to a strong mid level ridge to the south,
taking the system into the Indian Ocean where it will continue to intensify
strongly over open waters to a Severe Tropical Cyclone.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1457539 - 17/03/2018 13:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
tropicbreeze Offline
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Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 139
Loc: Noonamah
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Strange, I know it's only a cat 2 cyclone and Territorians are famous for their resilience, but I just went through all the TV stations, including the weather channel and nothing, zilch, nada on the passage of Marcus through Darwin. It may be different on local Darwin TV, but if this were to have hit any of the regional centres of Queensland - especially Brisbane - there would have been wall to wall live coverage. Hmm, I hope you don't feel neglected by the rest of the country Darwin and its surrounds, but keep safe all the same.

That's not unusual. In previous years I've seen, after 3 cyclones in the north west, the first Queensland cyclone announced as the first for the Australian season. Also had people tell me that we don't get cyclones here, they only occur in Queensland. But these are people (including the media) who have little awareness of Australia beyond the Brisbane/Sydney/Melbourne Axis. There's always going to be those around.

Darwin Harbour it's still gusting to 130 kph but pressure is edging up to 987 hPa. Wind gusts have noticeably weakened at my place and pressure is edging up to 995 hPa. Rain is becoming more steady. Trees are down all over the place, across roads and powerlines. I finally lost power but on generator power now. The phone's down as well. Haven't been out to check for damage, too comfortable and dry inside.

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#1457544 - 17/03/2018 13:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Model ramps the tc up again in the JBG then a 2nd landfall over the NW then ots to become the strongest cyclone in the shem this season.





pushing @160kts.

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#1457545 - 17/03/2018 14:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4310
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's odd that a tropical cyclone scores what seems to be a direct or near direct hit on Darwin and it hardly features in the media.

It is getting a run on the ABC. There's a comprehensive report on their website: ABC News Cyclone Marcus

I think ABC News TV is hastily upgrading their coverage. They're stumbling through it now. They reported that the 'eye' passed over Darwin.


Edited by Steve777 (17/03/2018 14:07)
Edit Reason: Tidy up

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#1457548 - 17/03/2018 14:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Pooraka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/02/2006
Posts: 142
Loc: Pooraka, Adelaide, South Austr...
Originally Posted By: Steve777
It's odd that a tropical cyclone scores what seems to be a direct or near direct hit on Darwin and it hardly features in the media.

It is getting a run on the ABC. There's a comprehensive report on their website: ABC News Cyclone Marcus

I think ABC News TV is hastily upgrading their coverage. They're stumbling through it now. They reported that the 'eye' passed over Darwin.


Not surprising, my dad was telling me that during Cyclone Tracy, it took forever for the news to get out that Darwin had been hit. People were trying to call relatives in Darwin to wish them merry christmas and couldn't get through and didn't have a clue why. It was Christmas day and it was 1974 though. You'd think in this day and age the news would spread a bit quicker.

Stay safe up there, I'm sure they 'll be right though cool


Edited by Pooraka (17/03/2018 14:48)

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#1457552 - 17/03/2018 15:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
bbowen Offline
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Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 144
Pooraka I believe the issue may be not that the news isn't spreading quick enough more that the southern states/cities aren't affected by it so don't care.

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#1457553 - 17/03/2018 15:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I think its OK. We dont want the rest of the country to know how spectacular, wild and beautiful the NT and WA is. The less coverage the better. Even Nitso on OCC was doing A LIVE FEED report on youtube and he crossed to say 'we have um.... 22 people watching live' haha.
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#1457554 - 17/03/2018 15:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Not much left of the core and some dry air about in the JBG.
Has some work to do again. But should be interesting watching
the TC get it self together over water.Presentation just before
the first landfall was similar to a typhoon or cat1 sshs 64kt
but the tc filled in quickly on radar.











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#1457555 - 17/03/2018 15:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I dont think it will take much to spin Marcus's wheel back up again. Looking to re enter water in the JBGulf soon. Now lets see how strong it can get before making landfall again and where? We have a bloke on an isolated camp 20 kms North of Kalumburu in our Broome Weather Group who is going to document it how ever he can. Be good to see what it does in that area. CAT 2? maybe CAT 3.
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#1457559 - 17/03/2018 16:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Joseph Bonaparte Gulf is a good place for any TC to regain some structure and circulation .

Marcus just got to push that dry air away and stop it from wrapping into its circulation.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457562 - 17/03/2018 16:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Just stab atm thinking next port of call could be just nth of elise island or there about Locals like you guys likely nail it down better.


Edited by Rossby (17/03/2018 16:26)

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#1457567 - 17/03/2018 16:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
princessweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 185
Loc: Ocean Grove Vic
I'd like to add agreement to the horrific lack of care factor shown by the media, if this had landed in any part of the east coast itwould have gone live coverage.

Im in Victoria, and hubby was working in North WA, few tc went through and only info I could get to tell him was on here.

Totally appalling that apparently gography equals interest.

Hope everyone's ok up there and where Marcus decides to go next good luck!

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#1457574 - 17/03/2018 17:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Marcus down to Cat 1 now because of the interaction with the land but not for long me thinks.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 1:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 9 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South, 130.4 degrees East , 20 kilometres south of Dundee Beach and 70 kilometres southwest of Darwin .
Movement: southwest at 21 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marcus was weakened to a Category 1 tropical cyclone near the coast south of Dundee Beach. During the next few hours, Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move off the Northern Territory coastline between Dundee Beach and Channel Point and into the Timor Sea. Tropical Cyclone Marcus is forecast to re-intensity to Category 2 before approaching the northeast Kimberley during Sunday. The tropical cyclone is expected to move off the northwest Kimberley coast during Monday morning and continue moving westwards, into the Indian Ocean.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1457591 - 17/03/2018 19:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Keep him drifting South ever so slightly each update and then let the Ridge take hold of him. That way Broome will get a few good storms on the Southern Edge.
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#1457597 - 17/03/2018 20:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12980
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
The lack of mainstream media coverage is disgusting. This was a category 2 cyclone hitting a capital city for christs sake.
_________________________
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Bilyana FNQ

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#1457601 - 17/03/2018 20:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Media just hype it up anyway... darwinians wouldn’t have been stocking up on bread and milk anyway, like some were doing in central QLD last week, regardless of hype.... different breed up there... most would just call Marcus ‘a bit of a blow’....

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#1457602 - 17/03/2018 20:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2458
Loc: Chillagoe
That's my experience of living in Darwin Sepo. Completely different attitudes, to everything.

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#1457614 - 17/03/2018 21:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12980
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yup, I lived there for 12 years, know exactly what Darwin is like as well.

Still doesn’t excuse the lack of media coverage in the rest of the country though.
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Bilyana FNQ

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#1457615 - 17/03/2018 21:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2458
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Yup, I lived there for 12 years, know exactly what Darwin is like as well.

Still doesn’t excuse the lack of media coverage in the rest of the country though.

No it doesn't, but for people on the east coast nothing exists west of the Great Dividing Range and never has.

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#1457625 - 17/03/2018 21:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome
Hes a coming towards the Kimberley...

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 5:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South, 129.8 degrees East , 145 kilometres southwest of Darwin and 365 kilometres east northeast of Kalumburu .
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marcus, Category 1, is moving off the Northern Territory coastline between Dundee Beach and Channel Point and into the Timor Sea. Tropical Cyclone Marcus is forecast to re-intensity to Category 2 before approaching the northeast Kimberley during Sunday. The tropical cyclone is expected to move off the northwest Kimberley coast during Monday morning and continue moving westwards, into the Indian Ocean.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1457636 - 17/03/2018 22:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Marcus making its way through all that dry air and pushing it southwards ..for now anyway.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457669 - 18/03/2018 02:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


Gathering itself together nicely now and tightening up its LLC atm.

Marcus has favourable conditions for intensification during the next 12 hours.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457672 - 18/03/2018 06:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
A bit of video from around Darwin...

TC Marcus

Cat 2 seems about right.
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#1457675 - 18/03/2018 08:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1643
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Great to see there wasn't too much major damage in Darwin.
Here is a time-lapse of Himawari images for the last 24 hours. (Updates every 30 minutes)

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pilbara.aspx

Marcus is powering along!
_________________________
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GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
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#1457686 - 18/03/2018 09:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

From BOM Technical bulletin a couples of hours ago.

Marcus has a good outflow channel and steady inflow ...low wind shear in the next couple of days ....Predicting it make it to a Cat5 after west of the Kimberley on Monday while staying north of the ridge....


Recent satellite imagery has shown a curved band developing around the low level
centre, with a wrap of around 0.9. This yields a DT of 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on
a slight developing trend, with no adjustment made for Pattern. FT and CI set at
3.5. This is consistent with CIMSS and NESDIS ADT [3.6 and 3.4 respectively].
SATCON has the system at 60 knots [one minute mean]. The system's intensity is
currently set to 55 knots [ten minute mean].

The upper level ridge lies just to the south of TC Marcus. Development is being
assisted by strong upper divergence and good outflow, particularly on the
equatorward side of the system. CIMSS vertical wind shear has decreased to
easterly at around 15 knots, and system-relative shear would be less than 10
knots given the current motion.

The system is expected to maintain a W/SW track during Sunday as a mid latitude
trough moves east across the Great Australian Bight and pushes the mid level
ridge over southern Australia further north, creating stronger easterly
steering.

As the systems moves through the Timor Sea over the next 6-12 hours, development
is likely to continue at a standard rate or faster. It is possible that the
system could reach Category 3 intensity before crossing the coast later on
Sunday morning.

Steering will remain easterly long term due to a strong mid level ridge to the
south, taking the system off the northwest Kimberley coast on Monday morning and
then into the Indian Ocean. Once over water again, the system is likely to
continue intensifying, and may reach Category 5 intensity when it is well north
of the Australian mainland.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457687 - 18/03/2018 09:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Never to late for those OCC guys to come over and hire a boat and get amongst the action....... wink smile
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457714 - 18/03/2018 11:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Yeah Marcus wrapped a core again last night.






Snapshot of Marcus on Wednesday hwrf 10 metre V/large wind field
sub 900mb and 157kts. A beast roaming the Indian ocean.

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#1457717 - 18/03/2018 11:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Orebound]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Orebound
A bit of video from around Darwin...

TC Marcus

Cat 2 seems about right.

Good job Orebound. Cheapest chase ever. cheers
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#1457719 - 18/03/2018 12:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Yeah i like his videos to they are similar to Jame's vids from
around the globe. No over hyping commentary and selfies.

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#1457723 - 18/03/2018 12:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Thanks guys.
_________________________
Videos

Photos

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#1457739 - 18/03/2018 13:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Marcus appears to displaying a nascent eye on visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15S/html5-vis-long.html

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#1457742 - 18/03/2018 13:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Willoughby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/05/2003
Posts: 991
Loc: Darwin NT
Here's some video I stuck together from yesterday:

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#1457750 - 18/03/2018 14:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Marcus appears to displaying a nascent eye on visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15S/html5-vis-long.html



Latest 89h pass supports.

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#1457759 - 18/03/2018 15:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Orebound]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Orebound
Thanks guys.



Really cool mate. You have some serious stones being out there in that stuff. Any damage to your Car ?

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#1457760 - 18/03/2018 15:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Marcus appears to displaying a nascent eye on visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15S/html5-vis-long.html



Latest 89h pass supports.



Hey Rossby. Noticed that earlier today. What is a Nascent Eye ? Would rather hear it from the Horses Head than Dr Google. smile

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#1457769 - 18/03/2018 15:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2458
Loc: Chillagoe
Thanks for the videos Orebound and Willoughby.

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#1457777 - 18/03/2018 16:28 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Strange, I know it's only a cat 2 cyclone and Territorians are famous for their resilience, but I just went through all the TV stations, including the weather channel and nothing, zilch, nada on the passage of Marcus through Darwin. It may be different on local Darwin TV, but if this were to have hit any of the regional centres of Queensland - especially Brisbane - there would have been wall to wall live coverage. Hmm, I hope you don't feel neglected by the rest of the country Darwin and its surrounds, but keep safe all the same.


The interesting thing is there are scientific papers saying that a cyclone in the Top End/ North West often creates the ideal conditions for heatwaves throughout the SE of Australia, strong winds and high Fire risks. At least they got that today. Seems to be dominating the media news left right and centre today.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013GL058257
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1457778 - 18/03/2018 16:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Defin Popeye - poleward outflow channels pumping all that dead dry air into the Hadley Cell over southern Aus

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#1457791 - 18/03/2018 17:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71

Hey Rossby. Noticed that earlier today. What is a Nascent Eye ? Would rather hear it from the Horses Head than Dr Google

Nascent eye on visible is sinking air in the vortex seen as the dimple on visible and is the precursor to an eyewall formation. Had the TC stayed over water the inner core would have completed.

In short Marcus was just approaching typhoon or cat1 sshs strength again before crossing into WA

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#1457809 - 18/03/2018 19:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


Just a ukmet run but it looks interesting n funky.

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#1457826 - 18/03/2018 21:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6790
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Look out WA big cat 5 making U turn again I think.

This is by weather zone.



Edited by Mathew (18/03/2018 21:34)
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 617.4mm > 11.82mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 4.8mm month 8.1mm / 4.8mm

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#1457830 - 18/03/2018 21:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6790
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
It's is always some things to watch out all the time here I think with these things I mean.


Edited by Mathew (18/03/2018 21:58)
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 617.4mm > 11.82mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 4.8mm month 8.1mm / 4.8mm

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#1457832 - 18/03/2018 21:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Rossby

Hey Rossby. Noticed that earlier today. What is a Nascent Eye ? Would rather hear it from the Horses Head than Dr Google

Nascent eye on visible is sinking air in the vortex seen as the dimple on visible and is the precursor to an eyewall formation. Had the TC stayed over water the inner core would have completed.

In short Marcus was just approaching typhoon or cat1 sshs strength again before crossing into WA


Thanks Rossby. Much appreciated.

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#1457840 - 18/03/2018 22:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Looks like a quick intensification when moving over the warm waters of the Buccaneer Archipelago and then westward ho.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 5:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 14.8 degrees South, 126.0 degrees East , 90 kilometres southwest of Kalumburu and 175 kilometres east northeast of Kuri Bay .
Movement: west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is moving across the far north Kimberley and has weakened to a category 1 system. Once TC Marcus moves back over the ocean off the northwest Kimberley early Monday morning, it will re-intensify and become a Severe Tropical Cyclone. The system will track westwards away from the WA mainland from Monday with no further impact on northern communities
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1457843 - 18/03/2018 22:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome
Collier Bay is going to have a bit rough and wild waters in the next 10 hours especially up on the north eastern side near Kuri Bay.

The 10 metre tides along with a TC surge will makes the currents in those waters very dangerous.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457847 - 19/03/2018 00:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Cable Beach swells will be clean and pumping on Tuesday. 10 metre tide to. Bugger there goes Cable Beach. Might do an 8 hr gopro timelapse. Be a bit of fun.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1457868 - 19/03/2018 10:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Onward Marcus goes powering towards the West at 19km/hr.


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1457869 - 19/03/2018 10:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Be very surprised if there wasn't any powerful whirlpools forming in the Collier Bay and the Buccaneer Archipelago..

TCs even small ones tend to whip up the shallow seas and makes it very hard to navigate the area, especially when combined with the huge 10 metre tides atm.

Many years ago a mate of mine while trying to enter the Walcott Inlet in a yacht at night got caught in one, he said it was super scary .
He got sucked towards it but luckily managed to motor out before he was in the vortex after being spun around a few times .

Not to mention he lost a jib sail off the boat in the process and was bilging all night to get rid of the ocean that had come aboard.
He also had to throw away his pants after the event. frown

Big ones can drill you down to the bottom of the ocean.



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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1457901 - 19/03/2018 15:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


Marcus is displaying a pineye under the canopy likely there
will be explosive intensification when the eye clears out.

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#1457913 - 19/03/2018 16:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


Adele Island 100kms north of Cape Leveque just recorded wind at 128km/he from the ENE.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1457932 - 19/03/2018 18:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 139
Loc: Noonamah
Already Cat 3


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#1457934 - 19/03/2018 18:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


Glad Marcus isn't coming our way .

Cat 3 is always going to hazardous .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1457935 - 19/03/2018 19:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


GFS likes it as a possible powerful extra-tropical cyclone
threat for the SW of WA down stream.Also sends another land
low over your way. As always models will chop and change.

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#1457937 - 19/03/2018 19:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


looks a 100kt system now on micro = to a major hurricane sshs

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#1457938 - 19/03/2018 19:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1643
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Marcus is now starting to get some nice structure as he continues to intensify, on this timelapse of the last 24 hours of satellite images.

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pilbara.aspx

(Updates every 30 minutes)
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1457945 - 19/03/2018 20:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
structure is already there Marcus has a full eyewall.

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#1457951 - 19/03/2018 20:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby
structure is already there Marcus has a full eyewall.


https://weather.us/satellite/western-australia/top-alert-10min.html#play

Fully cleared out pineye Dvorak technique struggles with pineye
cyclones and usually it takes awhile for All agencies to catch up
with the intensity. Nothing new happens most times with pin-eyes.

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#1457963 - 19/03/2018 21:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Quote:
Some of the largest ADT intensity estimate errors
result from storms with very small eyes, often referred
to as “pinholes.” Pinhole eye cases represent situations
where the eye is sufficiently small to be improperly
sampled by current geostationary satellite infrared imagery
with spatial resolutions of 4 km, but can otherwise
be observed with other higher-resolution channels
(visible). These cases typically result in significant underestimates of intensity by the ODT/AODT algorithms
because of incorrect scene-type


https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF975.1


Most of you guys already know this anyway.

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#1457965 - 19/03/2018 21:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
Originally Posted By: Rossby


GFS likes it as a possible powerful extra-tropical cyclone
threat for the SW of WA down stream.Also sends another land
low over your way. As always models will chop and change.


I hope not!!

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#1457974 - 19/03/2018 22:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


200MB Nice example of the equatorial and poleward duel outflow channels Marcus has established. Nothing more really i can add to this thread.

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#1457975 - 19/03/2018 22:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
Thank you...

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#1457979 - 19/03/2018 22:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


Marcus looking the goods now to go all the way to Cat 5 as predicted on that westward track..

The interest now will be when it will do the left hand turn towards the coast.
As the ridge diminishes it will allow such curving to occur.

Sustaining factors and timing will definitely come into play when Marcus starts to track to south east.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457989 - 20/03/2018 09:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby


Marcus is displaying a pineye under the canopy likely there
will be explosive intensification when the eye clears out.



Sat data did finally catch it and confirm.

2018MAR19 151000 5.0 972.8 +2.8 90.0 5.0 5.0 6.5 MW ON OFF OFF -26.82 -79.14 EYE/P -99 IR 66.1 -15.15 -120.56 SPRL HIM-8 29.2


JTWC best tracks also caught up n bumped Marcus up to 100kts.

15S MARCUS 180319 1800 15.3S 119.9E SHEM 100 959
https://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file.

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#1458003 - 20/03/2018 10:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Techincal info from BOM a few hours ago....but could you get much better conditions for intensification.

Marcus has started to take a more westerly track under the influence of a strong
ridge to the south.

Vertical wind shear is around 5-10 knots from the ENE on CIMSS 18 UTC imagery.
There is good divergence, with good poleward outflow and increasing equatorial
outflow.

Ocean Heat Content is favourable and SSTs are around 30C along the forecast
track. Shear should remain low over the next few days. NWP is in strong
agreement with a mid level ridge steering the system generally towards the west
over the next two days.

STC Marcus is forecast to intensify into a category 5 system later Tuesday or
Wednesday morning as it continues to track towards the west.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1458032 - 20/03/2018 12:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Quote:
WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 119.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A RAGGED 10 NM
EYE THAT INSTILLS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) HEDGED LOWER
DUE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUD FILLING IN THE EYE OBSERVED AROUND
191800Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS (30
TO 31C). ALL THESE FACTORS SUPPORT CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 15S WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA.
FROM TAU 24 TO 48, THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE SLOWLY AND THEN BEGINS
TO WEAKEN DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHEASTLY VWS AS IT BEGINS
TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD. AS TC 15S CONTINUES POLEWARD ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR
AFTER TAU 72, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AT ABOUT TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z,
200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Last advisory as/per JTWC for comparison

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#1458035 - 20/03/2018 12:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5297
Ensembles (from EC, UK and GFS) still showing superbly tight track and intensity consensus as Marcus continues west then curves south like it was set in stone:



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#1458039 - 20/03/2018 12:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
As a cat 4, im surprised we cant see a defined eye.
_________________________
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Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1458051 - 20/03/2018 13:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 507
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
BoM's tech bulletin this morning stated forecast lowest central pressure in about +48 hours at 923 hPA. I would love to stress test one of my analogue barometers to that pressure; but realistically I don't want to be anywhere near Marcus.

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#1458057 - 20/03/2018 14:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71

Appears on visible to be undergoing eyewall replacement cycle.
likely to be a much larger eye when it completes. When it clears
out again and warms. Marcus should have no problem reaching cat5
status.

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#1458058 - 20/03/2018 14:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That se side still pretty ragged hey; dry air ingestion no doubt.

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#1458060 - 20/03/2018 14:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2458
Loc: Chillagoe
Just looking at the current BOM National Radar Loop,the eye is quite obvious. (At 1.15pm)
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml


Edited by cold@28 (20/03/2018 14:17)

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#1458064 - 20/03/2018 15:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: cold@28]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Just looking at the current BOM National Radar Loop,the eye is quite obvious. (At 1.15pm)
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml


Yeah Bom sat shows a cloud filled eye not cleared out.



radar only shows coverage of the east outer band.


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#1458069 - 20/03/2018 15:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5297
This eye probability forecast is based on current IR satellite data, the broadscale environment around the TC using GFS data and other ingredients such as shear, recent intensity trends, tangential 850hpa winds, etc.... and is calibrated to past cases:




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#1458070 - 20/03/2018 15:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4466
Loc: Brisbane
I can certainly see the eye on vis sat now and its very small.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1458073 - 20/03/2018 15:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
Wow, what a cyclone!

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#1458078 - 20/03/2018 15:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
This eye probability forecast is based on current IR satellite data, the broadscale environment around the TC using GFS data and other ingredients such as shear, recent intensity trends, tangential 850hpa winds, etc.... and is calibrated to past cases:






Not sure how to interrupt that grafic ken. We know Marcus had a eyewall on the 16th @1000Z


Edited by Rossby (20/03/2018 15:55)

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#1458079 - 20/03/2018 16:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5297
I don't recall it having any kind of distinguishable eye at that time though? I do remember something that resembled hot towers going up near its core (see 2nd image) but I don't recall any kind of actual eye. These are the various satellite images from about that time:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01803161000.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01803160910.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01803161147.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01803160914.jpg

The subsequent TCWC tech bulletin also didn't make any mention of an eye either.

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#1458082 - 20/03/2018 16:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
I do it was a clear cut 'eyewall' on the 16th




Meted is free


Edited by Rossby (20/03/2018 16:15)

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#1458085 - 20/03/2018 16:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


Latest microwave is a much more symmetrical cyclone very impressive.

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#1458087 - 20/03/2018 16:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5297
Well that's not 1000z then is it.... it was around 18z to 21z. It didn't show up on any colour-enhanced IR imagery for the same times so I suspect it may have been covered by a cirrus overcast which the AMSU and SSMIS microwave imagery managed to overcome i.e. an eye but not a clear-cut one that would show up on conventional IR and visible imagery:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.4E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg

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#1458092 - 20/03/2018 16:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2426
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
FWIW I recall seeing an eye on radar; so probably covered like Ken has suggested.

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#1458095 - 20/03/2018 17:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5297
It'd probably also explain why the eye probability forecast didn't pick it up because it uses conventional IR satellite imagery and not microwave sounding or other sensors i.e. it's more for clear eyes that show up on visible/IR imagery or to a person standing on the ground.

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#1458101 - 20/03/2018 17:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Look at all that moisture being spilled out over the ocean.

Marcus is a nice big system with lots of moisture circulating around the core.


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#1458132 - 20/03/2018 19:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71


icing on cake clearly also shows Marcus building the core + the
eye.

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#1458137 - 20/03/2018 20:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
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Originally Posted By: Rossby

Appears on visible to be undergoing eyewall replacement cycle.
likely to be a much larger eye when it completes. When it clears
out again and warms. Marcus should have no problem reaching cat5
status.







There bit of agreement out there it seems on the eyewall replacement cycle.

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#1458140 - 20/03/2018 20:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Well that's not 1000z then is it.... it was around 18z to 21z. It didn't show up on any colour-enhanced IR imagery for the same times so I suspect it may have been covered by a cirrus overcast which the AMSU and SSMIS microwave imagery managed to overcome i.e. an eye but not a clear-cut one that would show up on conventional IR and visible imagery:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.4E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic...31.6E.100pc.jpg



You can actually see the half the eye on those lower res nrl images. Been using and studying microwave's for over 7 years.

All dvorak estimates are done with microwave it clearly shows cloud temps,core structure. If you don't use 36H 37H .....91H then you are not in the game when a system is over water and out
of radar range. Its moot now anyway microwave 16th + ongoing radar showed the wall and the eye. Pls rattle somebody else's
chain who has no understanding. Or challenge the eye on the
16th on twitter #Marcus.. Nothing more to say on here about it.

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#1458141 - 20/03/2018 20:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5297
Rossby: is there something wrong with you that you can't grasp the basic concept of "an eye but not a clear-cut one that would show up on conventional IR and visible imagery" ?

I'm now understanding why a number of users on here have found you obnoxious to the point that you've been banned in the past.

I haven't done anything to you, nor attacked you until you started on this unprovoked hostile attitude. You even PM'd me assuming I was accusing you of clickbait posts.

No wonder I don't get on this threads as much these days.

I'll leave you to it and your petty BS.

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#1458142 - 20/03/2018 20:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rossby Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Nobody was attacking you. Just pointing out with the facts
you was wrong. I guess everyone including pro mets were wrong
and you are right. I doubt that probs graphic was even operational

Cheers

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#1458148 - 20/03/2018 21:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Rossby]
Stephen Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1560
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Rossby, Ken is not arguing. No one cares if there was or was not an eye to Cyclone Marcus at the time proposed by you. It was not noticeable or recognised as a defined eye by many of the conventional weather imagery. Time to move on buddy.
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#1458161 - 20/03/2018 22:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
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Registered: 09/03/2007
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Loc: South West Sydney
Can we get back to tracking the cyclone, thanks.
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#1458165 - 21/03/2018 00:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 507
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Tech bulletin by BoM at 1258 UTC forecasting min central pressure 917 hPA in 24 hrs. Interested to see How low will he get.

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#1458167 - 21/03/2018 00:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Yes Marcus looks quite impressive atm. Luckily he is not doing a left hand turn right now .

Good to see a large TC like Marcus staying off the coast.
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#1458217 - 21/03/2018 11:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Cori Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
He is very impressive! The track is similar to Albi, glad it will dissipate before hitting South West.

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#1458224 - 21/03/2018 11:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Still no define eye...odd

The wind shows a eye but visible and infrared imagery dont...eyes still cover up...I wonder if it will clear. Cos I always like the look of a cyclone with a defined eye


Edited by rainthisway (21/03/2018 11:40)
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#1458228 - 21/03/2018 11:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
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Loc: Brisbane
I think the eye is very small on Marcus that makes it very difficult to pick out.

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#1458234 - 21/03/2018 12:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Loc: Broome

CIMSS IR-NHC pic form a couple of hours ago .
Yes eye is small and seems to appear and then disappear but Marcus look great even if no apparent eye.


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#1458245 - 21/03/2018 12:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Loc: Broome

Cat 5 now...

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#1458254 - 21/03/2018 13:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
The eye is covered in high level cloud.
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#1458256 - 21/03/2018 13:19 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 507
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
No rain gauges out where Marcus is travelling.
Lucky we have satellite estimation of rainfall, and it sure looks like some sustained intense rain where he is.
https://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/ATLA/latest_big_half_hourly_gridded.jpg
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4285
https://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/24hr_rain_dump.gif


Edited by Flowin (21/03/2018 13:21)
Edit Reason: added another link

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#1458285 - 21/03/2018 16:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1643
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Wow.. He is huge and looks bigger than the state of QLD now!
Here is a time lapse of the last 24 hours.
http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pilbara.aspx
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#1458287 - 21/03/2018 17:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: pabloako]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4141
Loc: El Arish
Looks set to still intensify over the next 24hrs.

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 21/0600: 14.6S 110.8E: 025 [050]: 110 [205]: 925
+12: 21/1200: 14.9S 109.6E: 040 [070]: 125 [230]: 919
+18: 21/1800: 15.3S 108.5E: 050 [095]: 125 [230]: 919

+24: 22/0000: 15.9S 107.6E: 065 [120]: 120 [220]: 925
+36: 22/1200: 17.4S 106.4E: 085 [155]: 100 [185]: 947
+48: 23/0000: 19.6S 105.6E: 105 [190]: 090 [165]: 955
+60: 23/1200: 22.0S 105.7E: 120 [225]: 070 [130]: 971
+72: 24/0000: 24.4S 106.4E: 140 [265]: 050 [095]: 986
+96: 25/0000: 27.2S 107.3E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 997
+120: 26/0000: 30.0S 110.1E: 275 [505]: 030 [055]: 998

My son's name is Marcus and my Wife is Debbie....
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#1458301 - 21/03/2018 18:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
Here's a link if you want to keep watching the action...

Keep tracking Marcus...

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#1458302 - 21/03/2018 18:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Weary Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1069
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
thanks Fuji grin
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#1458321 - 21/03/2018 20:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Has a tiny visible eye now
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Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
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#1458325 - 21/03/2018 20:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: FujiWha]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
Thanks for this, doesn't he look amazing!

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#1458334 - 21/03/2018 23:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


Definitely becoming more symmetrical as he intensifies.

Eye very easy to see in the last few hours....
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#1458335 - 21/03/2018 23:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


Yes Cori He does look awesome ...luckily spinning out there out of harms way.

Hopefully get a bit of rain down the south coast in the long term from Marcus even if by then he may only be a bit of a trough.
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#1458349 - 22/03/2018 07:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
DVC Offline
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Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 342
Loc: Goulburn NSW
what is the record lowest central pressure for this region?
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#1458353 - 22/03/2018 08:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4310
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Marcus looks like a real monster.

The central pressure shown on the BOM's latest chart is just 921mb, about 27.19" on the old scale. That's as low as I recall seeing on an Australian chart. That's probably not the lowest it's gone.

Here's the view on 'Layers' just now. Note the bits of white in the cloud, that would be about -87 degrees (about 20,000 metres?):



Edited by Steve777 (22/03/2018 08:41)

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#1458388 - 22/03/2018 11:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25297
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
for those discussing the size of marcus vs the size of yasi, here is a good write up by Nitso on facebook.

Marcus V Yasi

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#1458395 - 22/03/2018 12:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


Marcus going good for now but lower SSTs and unfavourable windshear will be the inhibiting factors as he moves more southwards by this time tomorrow.

But for now still going strong as a high end Cat 5.
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#1458413 - 22/03/2018 15:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 342
Loc: Goulburn NSW
916mb on the 11am synoptic!
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#1458415 - 22/03/2018 16:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: DVC]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4141
Loc: El Arish
Still the same by the Tech bulletin....

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 175 knots [325 km/h]
Central Pressure: 916 hPa
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#1458427 - 22/03/2018 18:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


On the south west track now ,no longer riding that ridge westwards.

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#1458453 - 22/03/2018 22:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4310
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Marcus down to 914 Mb on the latest synoptic, 26.99". That's pretty intense.

It has its Wikipedia entry, a work in progress: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Marcus#Meteorological_history


Edited by Steve777 (22/03/2018 22:27)

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#1458472 - 23/03/2018 01:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


Going south from here onwards. Unfortunately going to loose his moisture feeding supply after tonight.

But made his way in the record books with a low pressure reading of 914 hPa.
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#1458508 - 23/03/2018 09:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome


From BOM and its seems all downhill from its peak yesterday morning from now on .
On the sat imagery it still has a lot of integrity and looks very impressive but unfortunately this system is passed its prime and will slowly disintegrate in the next 2 days.

REMARKS:
Marcus was located using EIR imagery. Marcus reached peak intensity during
Thursday morning, since then it has shown signs of weakening with a cooling
trend in the eye temperatures and a warming trend in the surrounding grey shade.




The influence of the mid-level ridge over the movement of Marcus is waning and
the amplifying mid-level trough to the southwest of the cyclone will become the
dominant steering mechanism into Friday. Marcus is likely to move in a southerly
direction over the next 24 hours, then gradually south southeasterly as the
steering becomes more northwesterly ahead of the trough.

CIMSS Vertical wind shear is 10 knots from the ENE. The system is still within
an area of low shear however the shear will start to increase steadily as the
system tracks in a more southward direction. There is still good upper
divergence, particularly south of the system with dual outflow channels
[poleward and equatorward]. As the system moves further south today, closer to
the amplifying mid-level trough, these conditions will become less favourable.

Ocean Heat Content [OHC] is favourable and SSTs are around 26-28C along the
forecast track in the short term. Once Marcus tracks south of 20S, OHC is less
favourable and SSTs decrease below 26/27C.

Marcus is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday.
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#1458601 - 23/03/2018 19:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Still going strong but not for too much longer.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 21.3 degrees South, 105.8 degrees East , 860 kilometres west of Exmouth and 900 kilometres west northwest of Carnarvon .
Movement: south at 26 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus is weakening as it moves southward, well away from the WA mainland. Marcus will continue moving generally southward and weaken further during Friday and Saturday. Marcus will weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday or early Sunday, well off the west coast of WA.
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#1458698 - 24/03/2018 12:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus (92S) - Arafura Sea March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3601
Loc: Broome

Marcus weakened to Cat 2 ...probably be only a low by this time tomorrow.
All sustaining factors working against the system now .

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 25.1 degrees South, 107.0 degrees East , 670 kilometres west of Carnarvon and 860 kilometres west northwest of Geraldton .
Movement: south southeast at 27 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is weakening as it moves south and will continue to weaken further to below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday or early Sunday, well off the west coast of WA.
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