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#1457320 - 15/03/2018 21:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2320
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
No surprise heat is forecast when the monsoon trough gets active. All that dead dry air has to go somewhere.

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#1457323 - 15/03/2018 21:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 377
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
What just happened EC is predicted a drop of around 300mm (10 day accumulation) in Stormy's and Gringo's area that would be insane.


Edited by ashestoashes (15/03/2018 21:58)

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#1457324 - 15/03/2018 21:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Great sleeping weather /sarc
Still nearly 25 here
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#1457329 - 15/03/2018 22:11 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4991
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Yeah still warm Knot, unfortunately it looks like that southerly has weakened quite significantly as expected though.

And GFS has a bullseye of 225mm over Mid-Nth Coast, early days
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#1457331 - 15/03/2018 22:14 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1143
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Great sleeping weather /sarc
Still nearly 25 here


Current conditions temporarily unavailable here, but it was still 30C at 7pm, so the heat is not going away.
Tomorrow now downgraded to 29C, but Sunday now 39-40C across the Hunter.

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#1457334 - 15/03/2018 22:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: EddyG]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 377
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Yeah still warm Knot, unfortunately it looks like that southerly has weakened quite significantly as expected though.

And GFS has a bullseye of 225mm over Mid-Nth Coast, early days


But all I can say is that it will be north of Sydney guaranteed frown

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#1457336 - 15/03/2018 22:30 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Morham]
Rob_S Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/02/2004
Posts: 46
Originally Posted By: Morham
It's all daves fault. He tempted the beast grin

Will penrith break the 1998 march record?? I am leaning towards yes. I think the extra urbanisation and concrete structures will create enough heat in the area to tip it over.

The target is 40.6 Should be breakable.



Penrith Lakes AWS is nowhere near any built up areas.

It's a low lying, exposed location at the base of the escarpment and this provides for the extreme heat in a summer westerly.

The airmass is hot and dry enough on Sunday for it to reach 30c at Mt Boyce, so 42c is not out of the question for Penrith.

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#1457342 - 16/03/2018 03:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Such a shallow south change that it feels warm. Still 23 here. Will be under the Nobbys record by 9am. But only just.
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#1457344 - 16/03/2018 07:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6899
Thanks Knot. I'll only be around every now and then these days. smile

Yes it's pretty strange how all of the hottest March days have followed El Nino like clock work but yet this year we just came out of a weak La Nina. I wonder what the IOD and SAM will do this winter. We want them to both be negative for good rain.


Edited by Wave Rider (16/03/2018 07:05)
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#1457347 - 16/03/2018 08:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4991
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Southerly arrived around 4am, a little gusty at first but has since eased considerably. A cool cloudy morning coming up.
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#1457352 - 16/03/2018 09:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4269
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Regarding heat, a few years ago I downloaded Sydney OH maxima from the BOM site into a spreadsheet to analyse.

Very hot days become increasingly uncommon in Sydney after about mid February. This is probably not so much for lack of hot air as it is because strong Westerlies are uncommon at this time of year. Interior heat is directed Eastwards and Southwards.

The latest 40 degree day at Sydney OH was 22/2/1930 when 41.1. Elsewhere in Sydney, 40 degrees has occurred into March (e.g. Airport 41.2, 9/3/1983).

Sydney OH has recorded 37.8 (100F) on nearly all days up to March 10, after which there seem to be only two instances: 18/3/1927 (38.1) and 28/3/1940 (when a remarkable 38.7).

Anyway, Sunday might give some late season records a shake in our part of the world, as WR and others here have said. It will be interesting to see, if not necessarily pleasant to live through.

I might start a thread later today (unless someone else wants to).

-----

A change will arrive late Sunday into Monday, but there doesn't seem to be storm activity or much rain associated with it. From Tuesday, the weather on the coast looks cloudy and showery for several days in a SE regime, but there doesn't seem to be much rain. GFS is hinting at the heat returning the week after next.





Edited by Steve777 (16/03/2018 09:05)

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#1457359 - 16/03/2018 09:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Originally Posted By: Steve777
GFS is hinting at the heat returning the week after next.


You trying to get a man depressed he he he

Got down to 22.6 at Nobbys eventually. Cooranbong and Norah were only a few points of a degree off record min. And we still got the bigger heat yet to come. Records should get squashed on the min front. Maybe max too.
Very interesting stats Steve.
@WR Yes it is crazy coming off a La Nina to get March heat more akin to the back end of an El Nino.

Down the track we could eventually see this.
Calendar summer expands to cover mid October to mid April. Autumn covers latter April to mid June. Winter is a teeny 4 weeks from mid June to Mid July. Spring from latter July to first 2 weeks of October. Roughly a 26 week summer. An 8-9 week Autumn. 4 week Winter and 12-13 week Spring. Sounds crazy but who knows.


Edited by Knot (16/03/2018 09:54)
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#1457369 - 16/03/2018 10:50 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4991
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
It would be nice to have a 51 week summer, the one week is of course winter, just to keep you winter lovers happy!! laugh grin wink

The bulls eye on GFS is growing on the Mid-Nth Coast, might just get lucky with some rainfall next week.
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#1457375 - 16/03/2018 11:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Generous of you to give us a week Eddy he he he
Mid twenties here
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#1457376 - 16/03/2018 11:30 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
March mean max at Nobbys currently tracking above the December and Feb max means. 0.1 under the Jan max mean and the March 1998 max mean. 0.3 over the March 1983 max mean. Like a Claytons El Nino effect for this region. The El Nino you have when not having an El Nino
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#1457390 - 16/03/2018 13:14 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: ashestoashes]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1593
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
What just happened EC is predicted a drop of around 300mm (10 day accumulation) in Stormy's and Gringo's area that would be insane.


a2a we need something insane here, so bring it on.
Whilst the heat coming up on the weekend will be interesting from a record point of view...we didnt need a dry hot autumn on top of the last 12-18 months. Stress is creeping back up again so a solid event next week would be really great. Lets hope it keeps creeping south. Access not as interested...

Sunday could get rather nasty re fire danger. We escaped the winds with the heat over summer...but we could get a bad combo this weekend. How many stings in the tail will this season have.

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#1457397 - 16/03/2018 14:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Plenty sting left Gringo unfortunately. 30 at some sites in Hunter today and likely at places like Penrith later even with this wind direction. Just no cold air from antarctic able to get up here. This cloud layer is suffocating and gonna make for another uncomfortably warm night. Gettin on my nerves now he he


Edited by Knot (16/03/2018 14:05)
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#1457400 - 16/03/2018 14:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1593
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
If anyone is interested, there is a good series on gaia TV call missing links narrated by Greg Bradden. First episode of season 1 covers some interesting research on the forbidden topic and our current cycles. We are in a rare overlap of a number of cycles. Anyway, it covers a lot of stuff I already know and believe from previous research, but others might be interested. only 99c for first month. hundreds of videos and series of all sorts.

So sweaty Knot, Im not overly keen on this weather either. Some crispness will be welcome, but I dont want to be too quickly into chopping firewood. Maybe May will be the ultimate month....

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#1457401 - 16/03/2018 14:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: EddyG]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 392
Loc: Clydesdale NSW
I'd rather 25/8 51 weeks of winter then summer! At least you can start a fire, not putting them out!

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#1457410 - 16/03/2018 15:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Simulated view of Earth right about now from a zoomed in lunar perspective
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