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#1457425 - 16/03/2018 17:19 NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4310
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Eastern NSW will be experiencing what is likely to be a final burst of heat for Summer 2017/18 over the next few days, or at least of severe heat. The heat will peak on Sunday 18th, with Westerly winds looking strong enough to bring the heat to the coast. It is a very hot air mass for this time of year, with 850 temps over the Central Tablelands and central part of the coast over 24 degrees on Sunday afternoon.

Late season heat records are at risk, with Penrith forecast to reach 41 on Sunday, compared to its current record of 40.6 (13/3/1998 - records since 1995) and Richmond's record of 41.9 (old site, 6/3/1938). In fact, a number of late season heat records might tumble, possibly including Sydney OH if the sea breeze doesn't arrive.

The heat will be short-lived. Penrith will get three days of 35+ heat, Parramatta 3 days of 32+ and I expect that Sunday will be the only day to pass 30 at OH, although it will be a doozy for this late in the season.

There'll be a weak change late Sunday, followed by a stronger change on Tuesday. There does not seem to be much likelihood of storms or a much rain with either change.

Here are a few forecast maxima for the 17th-19th:

Code:
Newcastle:  31, 36, 28
Maitland:   37, 40, 35
Sydney:     31, 38, 29
Parramatta: 34, 39, 32
Penrith:    37, 41, 36
Bathurst:   33, 34, 32
Wollongong: 29, 39, 28
Canberra:   33, 33, 28

-----

From late Tuesday onwards, significant rain looks set to develop on the mid North Coast, possibly extending South to the Central Coast, with lighter showers further South. Unfortunately, that appears to be mostly coastal. It might prove worth its own thread.


Edited by Steve777 (16/03/2018 17:20)

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#1457427 - 16/03/2018 17:30 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2241
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Going for 41c here on Sunday. If it eventuates that would mean Dec17, Jan18, Feb18 and Mar18 will all break their max temp record consecutively. Incredible!

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#1457496 - 17/03/2018 09:46 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1158
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Slow start towards a 37C day, but just starting to feel the heat now. Gonna be one hot night tonight though, by the looks of it.

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#1457505 - 17/03/2018 10:22 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4310
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Yes, I think tonight will be very warm, although the forecast, at 21-22 minima for Sydney, is nothing special.

It's about 25 across Sydney, with clear skies and light Westerlies. There looked to be a cloud band approaching from the W-SW, but it's rapidly evaporating as it crosses the ranges.

The NE'er is up and running at Bellambi. It will arrive at OH in an hour or so, capping the temperature to within a degree of whatever it reaches by then, but it will warm up quickly out West after midday.

EC and GFS are still going for a big but localised rain even around the Hunter or lower mid-North Coast mid next week, GFS a lesser event further North.

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#1457515 - 17/03/2018 11:12 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 943
Loc: Cammeray
Still a light westerly on the harbour. Canít be like that for much longer

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#1457517 - 17/03/2018 11:22 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Jimi]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2817
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Jimi
Still a light westerly on the harbour. Canít be like that for much longer


Gradient level winds are more W-WSW today which works against early sea breeze development on the Sydney coast, at least that's been my observations in the past. It should be one of those days where despite the slack winds the westerly hang on that little bit longer.
_________________________
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#1457532 - 17/03/2018 12:16 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4310
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Tomorrow looks like it might be a bad fire danger day, possibly a total fire ban. Very unusual in our part of the world for March.

Code:
Severe Weather Warning for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Illawarra, South Coast, Southern Tablelands, 
Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory 
Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:41 am Saturday, 17 March 2018.
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW SOUTH WALES ON SUNDAY

Weather Situation: Vigorous west to northwesterly winds are 
expected ahead of trough and cold front that are expected to move 
across southern and central New South Wales during Sunday. Winds 
are expected to be particularly strong across the southeast.


That Westerly is hardly there, just a couple of knots, but it's surprisingly persistent. It's now up around 29-30 over most of Sydney, feeling a bit sultry in the relatively high humidity (in the 40s percent range). CS22 seems to be right.

I think the hotter air is still inland and will arrive later, for example Orange 28 (34 at sea level), Scone 34.

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#1457542 - 17/03/2018 13:52 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 401
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Wow EC is really going for a change in pattern with the rain event next week that focused on Sydney and Hunter and then after that a cloudband that look to bless the entirety of the state. On another note these Westerlies will not give up.

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#1457547 - 17/03/2018 14:16 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4310
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I think the rain event is on. It's just a question of exactly where. Hopefully it focuses on the Hunter where it's most needed.

----

The NE'er is established on the coast, but it took a while to get going. It looks like OH peaked just short of 32 at 1:23PM. Western Sydney is now around 33-34 with another with a way to go, it's 34-35 in the lower Hunter and about 30 in Bathurst and Orange.

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#1457556 - 17/03/2018 15:52 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
See breeze keeping a lid on things here, was at Maitland this morning till about lunch time, it was slow warming up out there, but looks to have kicked on after lunch.

I reckon this rain event is on for next week, maybe rename this thread to Final Summer Heat then rain perhaps?
_________________________
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YTD - 875.9mm
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#1457563 - 17/03/2018 16:26 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 401
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
The bureau has really turned the tap on again, and the word thunderstorm is back smile.


Edited by ashestoashes (17/03/2018 16:28)

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#1457564 - 17/03/2018 16:28 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: EddyG]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1158
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: EddyG
See breeze keeping a lid on things here, was at Maitland this morning till about lunch time, it was slow warming up out there, but looks to have kicked on after lunch.

I reckon this rain event is on for next week, maybe rename this thread to Final Summer Heat then rain perhaps?


Slow heating, that is for sure, maximum is after 4pm.
Looks like 36.3C, but may have got the forecast of 37C if 36.5C or above was reached, even if momentarily.

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#1457568 - 17/03/2018 16:56 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4310
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The latest GFS has shifted the rain bullseye further North, but the new forecast shows some big totals for the period Tuesday March 20 to Saturday March 24, especially in the lower Hunter, but unfortunately restricted pretty much East of the Divide:

Code:
Wollongong: 20 -  65 mm
Canberra:      <  10
Sydney:     35 -  90 
Penrith:    35 -  95 
Bathurst:      <  10
Newcastle:  65 - 175
Maitland:   55 - 140
Cessnock:   35 - 115

About half the expected rain looks set to fall Wednesday.

I will ask a moderator to extend and rename the thread to: "NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave then Rain - March 17-24, 2018".

EDIT: There's a total fire ban on for East-Central and SE NSW tomorrow, with severe fire danger. Sydney and Wollongong have been upped to 39 for tomorrow.


Edited by Steve777 (17/03/2018 16:59)

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#1457570 - 17/03/2018 17:08 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Originally Posted By: EddyG
See breeze keeping a lid on things here, was at Maitland this morning till about lunch time, it was slow warming up out there, but looks to have kicked on after lunch.

I reckon this rain event is on for next week, maybe rename this thread to Final Summer Heat then rain perhaps?


Slow heating, that is for sure, maximum is after 4pm.
Looks like 36.3C, but may have got the forecast of 37C if 36.5C or above was reached, even if momentarily.


In fact some kids were wearing jumpers, mind you it was 7.30 in the morning with a light westerly blowing.

Looks like 36.4c was the top for Maitland.

Thanks Steve777, I think it will be more fitting to have one thread, least we will know what happened in the days leading up to this rain event.


Edited by EddyG (17/03/2018 17:11)
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1457572 - 17/03/2018 17:22 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: EddyG]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5918
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Originally Posted By: EddyG
See breeze keeping a lid on things here, was at Maitland this morning till about lunch time, it was slow warming up out there, but looks to have kicked on after lunch.

I reckon this rain event is on for next week, maybe rename this thread to Final Summer Heat then rain perhaps?


Slow heating, that is for sure, maximum is after 4pm.
Looks like 36.3C, but may have got the forecast of 37C if 36.5C or above was reached, even if momentarily.


In fact some kids were wearing jumpers, mind you it was 7.30 in the morning with a light westerly blowing.

Looks like 36.4c was the top for Maitland.

Thanks Steve777, I think it will be more fitting to have one thread, least we will know what happened in the days leading up to this rain event.


I agree.

I think it needs to be a separate thread for the upcoming rain event.

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#1457575 - 17/03/2018 17:41 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 108
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Hasn't reached the forecast 37 today thank goodness.
Hopefully it doesn't reach 41 tomorrow.

35.7 has been the max today.

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#1457576 - 17/03/2018 18:10 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1158
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Definite sea breeze in now, at 29C we are the same as Williamtown.
Meanwhile further up the valley at Singo it is still 36C at 6pm.

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#1457583 - 17/03/2018 18:58 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 943
Loc: Cammeray
Iím surprised thereís no total fire ban tomorrow if the winds are meant to be that gusty

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#1457584 - 17/03/2018 19:04 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 401
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
It's probably because of those late September rains have really helped the moisture of the trees and grass lands and as Stormy put it before we've been having a 'green drought' . Hence less fire danger.

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#1457586 - 17/03/2018 19:16 Re: NSW/ACT - Final Summer Heatwave? March 17-19, 2018 [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
There is a fire weather warning out!!
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/fire.shtml
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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