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#1457580 - 17/03/2018 18:43 Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18??
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7143
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Parched old Victoria (un) patiently waits for the autumn break.... bar the odd shower with the wannabe change 17-18/3/18 we are currently experiencing, what's out there next??

GFS provides a glimmer of hope of something to tease us with thunder-wise:




.....trouble is, we have to endure a windy NW'ly event (fire weather) ahead of it???

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#1457588 - 17/03/2018 19:35 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2566
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yes cant wait for next 3rd system will give good rains.



Edited by chasers addict (17/03/2018 19:37)

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#1457594 - 17/03/2018 19:55 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2037
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Just posted on Day to Day weather re EC's take on this thread P, apols, didn't see this start off.

EC - https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/East_Sale/long.html

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#1457599 - 17/03/2018 20:10 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Oh don't dive off south.

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#1457801 - 18/03/2018 18:35 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7143
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I reckon Vic central districts are still on track (at this early stage) for a stormy change during next Saturday:



Storms might track to NE rather than the SE more typical?

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#1457933 - 19/03/2018 18:46 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7143
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
No change to my expectation that eastward moving storms are likely in Vic central and east areas this coming Saturday?:


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#1458112 - 20/03/2018 18:20 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7143
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Still looks like the change can be stormy in Vic's Southern regions as it progresses through on Saturday?:



Nice to see circa 5mm rain on Sunday, not the break, but better than a continuation of late season bushfires.

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#1458116 - 20/03/2018 18:27 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2037
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
ACCESS stepped away a little from the better rainfall figures of y'day, EC throttled right back.

Anything would be handy.

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#1458303 - 21/03/2018 18:57 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2037
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Confusing models/sites, just looked at OZ FORECAST 48MM Sat for Sale, couldn't be correct, ACCESS doesn't look that good, maybe 20mm over Sat->Mon, then BSCH, GFS based and talking 50mm over the 192hrs.

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2018032100:0:168:vic:nul

BOM - Sale - 2 to 11mm over the three days.

WZ - Sale - 6 to 16mm " " " "



Edited by samboz (21/03/2018 19:00)

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#1458375 - 22/03/2018 10:38 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2566
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Isolated Thunderstorms in West half Victoria not looking good for bush or grass fires by lighting...

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#1458379 - 22/03/2018 10:55 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2037
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Rain both days (Hamilton / BOM) and max 19C on Sunday are ++'s.

They've had enough, hoping it all goes OK.

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#1458528 - 23/03/2018 12:06 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7143
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS:



AccR mooting less rain, CMC and EC about the same as GFS.

I still reckon this will all start with storms.

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#1458561 - 23/03/2018 15:52 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Something happening on radar North East/ Goulburn-Broken now mate. Be interesting to see what happens up there the next few hours.

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#1458624 - 23/03/2018 21:57 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Finally it seems that this relentless, useless dry spell that I was getting mighty sick and tired of is about to come to end, in 24 hours' time! =D

No doubts there's been plenty of weather action across Australia in recent weeks, but up until now Victoria has largely missed out. One very nice low pressure trough edging eastwards towards us; looks like it'll take full advantage of a moisture-laden northerly airflow from Queensland, especially in response to Tropical Cyclone Nora over the Gulf of Carpentaria. BOM has severe thunderstorms predicted for the Central and Southwest districts tomorrow, including Melbourne. Hoping for at least 15-25mm of rain, and hopefully we finally get some great storm action! smile

Then the next mighty Antarctic polar blast for the year strikes on Sunday into Monday, with alpine snowfalls and also possible light inland frosts for the Northeast early next week; hopefully some stunning autumn foliage awaits when I head to Corryong during Easter! Also eager to see if the bay-effect can be reactivated for the Dandenong Ranges as the colder southwesterlies infiltrate metropolitan Melbourne! smile

Then next week it looks like autumn really gets going with generally very pleasing conditions lasting into the Easter weekend, although ACCESS seems to be hinting that the next potentially major winter storm could be HOPEFULLY getting ready to strike as we move into April, with likely gale-force northerly winds building ahead of it! grin

About time we say goodbye to this pathetic hot, dry spell, it's worn out its welcome.

I'll post my stats from here in Belgrave in the next coming days. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (23/03/2018 21:58)

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#1458661 - 24/03/2018 06:17 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2037
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Originally Posted By: Petros
I still reckon this will all start with storms.


Spot on P, heaps of lightning to the west of S.A / VIC border last night running down well off shore to the S.

This morning it is happening, mainly in the S/W parts of Vic, our nearest is N of Trafalgar ( well ahead of bulk activity), couple more just offshore from Port Albert.

Not a lot of rain overnight, nor wind, see 10mm'ish at Port Fairy on obs.

Hoping to get in a cycle this morning good chance of it unless the passing showers get going locally.

Calm here, no rain.

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#1458681 - 24/03/2018 10:07 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6329
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Lightning, thunder and weird wet stuff falling
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1458689 - 24/03/2018 11:03 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 288
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
The rain is beautiful, but is this it? frown

Was hoping for some stormy action this afternoon!
_________________________
Wunderground

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#1458694 - 24/03/2018 11:40 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7143
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Lightning, thunder and weird wet stuff falling


Been a long time since I can honestly say that I'm looking forward to getting "stormed off" the Golf Course!! smile

....dont think Petros will get far out there this arvo before being advised to seek shelter in the 19th wink

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#1458697 - 24/03/2018 11:54 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Sheeting down here. Gutters running and surface flow off the compacted old park next door under that fat heavy band. Local gauge has 2.4mm so far. Occasional rmbles.

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#1458700 - 24/03/2018 12:15 Re: Vic - finally enough moisture for a thundery change 22-24/3/18?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2566
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Nice shelf clouds with 5mm rain...

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