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#1457966 - 19/03/2018 21:44 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4676
You can clearly see the troughs on that map.

And trust the observations to be down on the radars!!

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#1457967 - 19/03/2018 21:49 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4676
Here is a pic of tonight's reverse sunset, it clearly shows an unstable looking sky. Its a nothing photo its part of a time lapse I'm working on.
IMG_5586 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

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#1457968 - 19/03/2018 21:49 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6717
I'm no expert but I concur with Eddy. Most of the weather systems lately have been shallow, meaning moist at the surface but relatively warm and dry above. But it looks like the air will be saturated all the way up to 300mb.

Reverse sunset? Like looking east at sunset? Nice pic btw.


Edited by Wave Rider (19/03/2018 21:50)
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2017-18 storm total= 11
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#1457969 - 19/03/2018 21:51 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4676
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider


Reverse sunset? Like looking east at sunset? Nice pic btw.


Correct and thanks.

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#1457978 - 19/03/2018 22:45 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2194
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Just had a look outside and can see the sky is covered with low cloud now.
I'm a bit excited about this event come too.

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#1457980 - 19/03/2018 23:09 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Marts]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5621
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Marts
Just had a look outside and can see the sky is covered with low cloud now.
I'm a bit excited about this event come too.


I was just outside too but can only see stars.
However, I'm excited too.
I just want to hear rain drops on the roof, and plenty of them.

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#1457983 - 20/03/2018 02:06 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Thanks Eddy and WR for thoughts on this events causation. Rain is rain in any mans language so I guess the 'why' and 'how' is not as important as the 'when' and 'where'. But still interesting.
God its a warm night.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1457984 - 20/03/2018 04:59 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Knot]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Thanks Eddy and WR for thoughts on this events causation. Rain is rain in any mans language so I guess the 'why' and 'how' is not as important as the 'when' and 'where'. But still interesting.
God its a warm night.



Yep very warm night, sheet on only, just comfortable now.
Look forward to this heat going, and the rain setting in.

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#1457985 - 20/03/2018 06:06 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
2nd warmest Nobbys night so far (unless it drops before 9am) since 1980. And the closest it has come this month to the 1965 record. Bizarre warmth even with a SSW, usually the coolest of winds. But feels warm. Lets hope some rain puts the kabosh to this tropical @@it.


Edited by Knot (20/03/2018 06:09)
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#1457990 - 20/03/2018 09:09 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4676
Yes was a mild night Knot, overcast morning and I don't think we will see much sun today. For some reason I think our storm chances have diminished somewhat.

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#1457991 - 20/03/2018 09:26 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4040
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There's actually a big range in minima around Sydney. It got a bit chilly away from the coast under what seem to have been fairly clear skies, the lowest being 11.1 at Camden and lots of 13-15 readings about, including 14.9 at Olympic Park. Nobbys and Norah were very warm, at 23 rounded, while OH at 19.6 was on its mid-Summer average.

EDIT: it's now partly cloudy with sunny periods, quite cloudy to the East and clearer skies Westwards.


Edited by Steve777 (20/03/2018 09:32)

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#1457995 - 20/03/2018 09:43 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Pretty much same conditions here Steve.
Lol. Hard to escape talk of warmth in a rain orientated thread. Although rain and heat are not mutually exclusive of course.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1457997 - 20/03/2018 09:53 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
The entire state in past 11 weeks has received 20 to 40% of average rainfall.
_________________________
If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1458007 - 20/03/2018 10:30 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4676
Does not look a pretty map that one, hopefully after the next week it will have some more colour to it.

Severe weather warning now out for the Hunter and parts of the Mid Nth Coast and a flood watch is also out.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN21037.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN36503.html


Edited by EddyG (20/03/2018 10:31)

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#1458011 - 20/03/2018 10:48 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 940
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Latest GFS seems to be ramping up rainfall for the metro whilst EC doesn't really want much of it for the area. Will be interesting whether we end up somewhere in the middle.


Edited by Perfect Storm (20/03/2018 10:50)
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#1458012 - 20/03/2018 10:48 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1530
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Exactly what the doctor ordered. If by Saturday there has been 200mm across the lower Hunter, perhaps it could be argued that the drought has broken for the lower Hunter. Lets get it in the gauge first.

The storages are so low its going to take some big runoff to fill them and then spill into the creeks. I notice the warnings are only for minor flooding and I think that is why. If we had had an average season and the dams were full then 200mm could cause more significant flooding.

been waiting a long time for BSCH accumulated precipitation to look like that over this area. Noticed it has shifted even more south with the Met right in the thick of it now too (according to GFS) Access and EC hold it a bit further north.

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#1458017 - 20/03/2018 11:03 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Hope Lake Mac doesn't ruin my tomatoes he he. But in all seriousness, parts of the Lake can be inundated readily. Happened to me on numerous occasions over the years. Most recently by ECL at Swansea in 2015.
Here is a council tool to check flood prone residences on the lake. I wouldn't wanna be anywhere near places like Stingaree Point drive Dora Creek with talk of 200mm

https://www.lakemac.com.au/page-flood.aspx?pid=1623&vid=23
_________________________
If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1458020 - 20/03/2018 11:19 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Knot]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Knot
The entire state in past 11 weeks has received 20 to 40% of average rainfall.


important to note that that is 20% to 40% of average ANNUAL rainfall, not year to date.

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#1458021 - 20/03/2018 11:21 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Don't usually see words like this from the BoM: "These areas will see some very intense bursts of rain creating dangerous conditions."

Could see some considerable flash flooding tomorrow, dangerous conditions in areas that are downhill from mountain ranges. Dungog and Stroud (and I would guess other similar locations) will be nervous after their recent experiences.

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#1458024 - 20/03/2018 11:37 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4040
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here's the full warning issued by the BOM this morning:

Code:
Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Mid North Coast and Hunter 
Forecast Districts.

Issued at 9:42 am Tuesday, 20 March 2018.
INTENSE RAIN OVER NEWCASTLE, CENTRAL COAST AND LOWER HUNTER

Weather Situation: A coastal trough will develop along the 
central parts of the coast over the next 24 hours, cradled 
between two strong high pressure system. This will bring 
widespread rainfall to Newcastle, Lower Hunter and Central 
Coast on Wednesday. These areas will see some very intense 
bursts of rain creating dangerous conditions.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is expected over
Newcastle, Central Coast and Lower Hunter during Wednesday.

The warning area is basically the Eastern half of the Hunter forecast district, extending from about Broken Bay almost to Seal Rocks, including the Port Stephens area; and inland to somewhere between Singleton and Muswellbrook.


Edited by Steve777 (20/03/2018 11:41)
Edit Reason: clarify last para

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