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#1457907 - 19/03/2018 15:53 Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8539
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Thought I'd start this one up.

RE: Meteorologist David Brown from Ch 7 is calling this event the 'autumn break', substantial rains will affect large parts of E NSW followed by a bigger system early next week.

The focus of the heaviest rains from this weeks system appears to be the Hunter and MNC with isolated falls up to 200mm possible. Winds expected to be fairly strong along the coast so it may feel like an ECL at times.

We'll probably need a separate thread for the follow-up system, provided it does come off.

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#1457909 - 19/03/2018 16:09 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5918
Loc: Dural
Thanks for starting this thread LRH.

I'm looking forward to this afternoon's forecasts, considering the beginning of this event is just 24 hrs away.
Hopefully the Hunter get their long awaited drink.


Edited by Homer (19/03/2018 16:09)

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#1457911 - 19/03/2018 16:33 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8539
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
No worries.

According to the latest BoM forecast (4:30pm)

Newcastle expecting 90-120mm on Wednesday alone.
Maitland going for 60-90mm.


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#1457914 - 19/03/2018 16:45 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4530
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
I cant wait.
Its been a long time coming
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YTD-630.1 mm
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#1457916 - 19/03/2018 16:49 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4310
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Just looked at the new forecast. This event is back on for the coast, with big totals over coming days, especially up North. After a short break for the weekend (good timing for once) it looks set to start again.

Forecast totals (mm) for March 20-23:

Code:
Sydney        45  - 90
Penrith       55 - 110
Wollongong    55 - 125
Newcastle    120 - 200
Cessnock      70 - 125
Bathurst       < 10

While the inland mostly misses the first wave over the the next few days, it looks set to get something early next week.

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#1457917 - 19/03/2018 16:56 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 657
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Iím a little excited. Both EC and gfs are a bullseye on the Hunter. Could we see a couple of small eddys spin in?

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#1457922 - 19/03/2018 17:47 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5918
Loc: Dural
The best news about this week's system is that the models are forecasting a follow up. Too far out to tell how good it will be, but at this stage, any models that are keen is a good sign.

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#1457940 - 19/03/2018 19:54 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1158
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Pretty pleased about the prospect of getting up to 100mm rain, that is for sure.
People like Stormy and GrigosRain should be over the moon too.

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#1457941 - 19/03/2018 20:01 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 401
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Can anyone tell me the synoptic feature that is causing this rain.

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#1457942 - 19/03/2018 20:05 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: ashestoashes]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Can anyone tell me the synoptic feature that is causing this rain.


A low pressure trough.
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Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
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#1457946 - 19/03/2018 20:26 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5918
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Could we see a couple of small eddys spin in?


I don't know but I think you'd have to ask Eddy whether he's going to spin in.

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#1457947 - 19/03/2018 20:32 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: EddyG]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 401
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Can anyone tell me the synoptic feature that is causing this rain.


A low pressure trough.

Thanks that was what i was thinking but it doesn't even sit like a coastal trough because it looks like it realigns into an easterly trough around wednesday. Maybe this is when the warm ssts are coming into fruition which has allowed it to become a significant event.


Edited by ashestoashes (19/03/2018 20:33)

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#1457950 - 19/03/2018 20:57 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1748
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
over the moon,DerekHV, if it comes off we could take 200mms easily here to fill dams and run creeks.


Edited by Stormy3 (19/03/2018 20:58)
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#1457952 - 19/03/2018 21:01 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4310
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Spinning Eddy, not to be confused with Evil Eddy.

---

The surface chart for the next few days shows long fetch E-SE'ers piling onto to coast over what are now warm seas, dragging in loads of moisture. That can cause cloudy and showery conditions, but not always heavy rain.

The heavy rain seems to be focused on the lower Hunter and coastal areas to its North. There's more going on, not shown on the surface chart, to trigger it. An upper level trough, perhaps.

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#1457953 - 19/03/2018 21:09 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
I can spin plenty of S***!!! LOL laugh grin poke
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1457954 - 19/03/2018 21:10 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1604
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
I cant really see much in the uppers to explain it either, just a bigger upper HPS. Strong low and mid level onshore feed though. Looks like weak mid level instability maybe?. LI and CAPE look great tomorrow evening, but not much doing for Wednesday when the rain really picks up.

I think its all pretty much surface level feature and yes there is the threat of micro lows spinning up during the event with destructive winds. Wednesday evening looks like it could be pretty interesting.

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#1457956 - 19/03/2018 21:21 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Spinning Eddy, not to be confused with Evil Eddy.

---

The surface chart for the next few days shows long fetch E-SE'ers piling onto to coast over what are now warm seas, dragging in loads of moisture. That can cause cloudy and showery conditions, but not always heavy rain.

The heavy rain seems to be focused on the lower Hunter and coastal areas to its North. There's more going on, not shown on the surface chart, to trigger it. An upper level trough, perhaps.


There could possibly be a surface trough?

We have a change/front moving through tomorrow, so the chance of storms ahead of the change. Wednesday a small weak low could develop combined with a high ridging up the coast bringing the gusty Southeasters and showers. According to the BOM the trough is going to deepen Tuesday into Wednesday.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1457959 - 19/03/2018 21:32 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
What background aspect has changed to allow this event where not much has occured for donkeys ages now.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1457960 - 19/03/2018 21:35 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Knot]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
What background aspect has changed to allow this event where not much has occured for donkeys ages now.


Probably the lack of troughs!!

We have had plenty of southerly changes, but they have been rather weak and shallow in depth.

My guess anyway, would love an expert to come into this thread and shed some light into this?


Edited by EddyG (19/03/2018 21:36)
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1457962 - 19/03/2018 21:38 Re: Eastern NSW/ACT Autumn break, heavy rains - March 20-24 2018 [Re: Long Road Home]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5918
Loc: Dural
Can see it starting to spin up now.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-211.63,-35.92,3000/loc=150.151,-36.260

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