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#1458277 - 21/03/2018 15:34 Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25281
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 1:51 pm ACST on Wednesday 21 March 2018

Headline:
Tropical Low developing north of Nhulunbuy in the Arafura Sea.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Milingimbi to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 9.4 degrees South 136.4 degrees East, estimated to be 315 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy and 340 kilometres north northeast of Milingimbi.

Movement: south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low is developing north of Nhulunbuy in the Arafura Sea. While the tropical low will initially move towards the west or southwest, it is expected to turn eastwards, towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, early on Thursday morning before taking a more southeasterly path on Friday.

Hazards:
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop between Milingimbi and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy during Friday.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises communities under Watch:

- Prepare your home, yard and family for a cyclone, finalise your emergency kit;

- Decide NOW where you will shelter - at home, with friends or family, or a public shelter, where available;

- If you plan to leave the area, leave while it is safe to do so.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm ACST Wednesday 21 March.


Edited by Mick10 (24/03/2018 03:24)
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1458280 - 21/03/2018 16:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5246
Thanks for creating this thread Mick.

Here's the latest (using last night's 12z runs) multi-model tracks out to 6 days

(for anyone using windy.com today for EC forecasts, the data from the 12z run didn't make it into their site for whatever reason so that site is using an older run).

I've forced the starting point for all tracks to commence from 10am Thursday for consistency regardless of whether the relevant model has intensified the system to TC intensity or not by then.

As you can see, the Gulf is living up to its classic unpredictability with track uncertainty although the consensus does still seem to suggest a general tendency for a westward curvature:



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#1458298 - 21/03/2018 18:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 298
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
Check out earthwind map's Sat 24th prediction.....
What a doozy for the GOC!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/03/24/0600Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-225.62,-17.38,3000/loc=126.162,-16.452

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#1458299 - 21/03/2018 18:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
flights booked for Mornington Island
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1458300 - 21/03/2018 18:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 298
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
flights booked for Mornington Island


Hope you got a bunker to hide in!

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#1458315 - 21/03/2018 20:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3165
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
That makes ACCESS G the outlier at the moment then.

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#1458320 - 21/03/2018 20:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
*sigh* This is really not our season
_________________________
Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1458322 - 21/03/2018 20:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: nimbuss1]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 283
Loc: Golden Beach
Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
flights booked for Mornington Island


Hope you got a bunker to hide in!

Danger Will Robinson!!

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#1458323 - 21/03/2018 20:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 283
Loc: Golden Beach
Seriously now, what meteorological forces are likely to be present in the area around Saturday or Sunday that would cause one model to take a 90 degree left hand turn. There has to be some reason for ACCESS G to predict this.

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#1458329 - 21/03/2018 21:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Seriously now, what meteorological forces are likely to be present in the area around Saturday or Sunday that would cause one model to take a 90 degree left hand turn. There has to be some reason for ACCESS G to predict this.


Hey Snapper, my take on possible reasons:

1. More intense monsoonal cross-equatorial flow from the WNW, pushing the system westward faster and preventing it from being captured by the other steering influences;
2. The forecast upper trough to sweep across Qld does not amplify as far northwards, or different timing to the other models, therefore preventing the southward steering influence;
3. The upper ridge over WA/NT may not be as strong as has been forecast by other models, and/or slightly different orientation/timing
4. ACCESS doesn't develop the system as quickly and keeps it weaker, and therefore is less likely to be influenced as strongly by upper level features (such as ridges and troughs)
5. Any combination of the above smile

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#1458330 - 21/03/2018 22:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
For the record:


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#1458332 - 21/03/2018 22:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 490
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Marcus currently over north of WA region appears to rival Yasi, and yet another potential intense system in coming days. Good times for tropical cyclone watching.
Hope Ken gives us more track maps along the way 👍

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#1458336 - 21/03/2018 23:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 283
Loc: Golden Beach
Originally Posted By: Dan101
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Seriously now, what meteorological forces are likely to be present in the area around Saturday or Sunday that would cause one model to take a 90 degree left hand turn. There has to be some reason for ACCESS G to predict this.


Hey Snapper, my take on possible reasons:

1. More intense monsoonal cross-equatorial flow from the WNW, pushing the system westward faster and preventing it from being captured by the other steering influences;
2. The forecast upper trough to sweep across Qld does not amplify as far northwards, or different timing to the other models, therefore preventing the southward steering influence;
3. The upper ridge over WA/NT may not be as strong as has been forecast by other models, and/or slightly different orientation/timing
4. ACCESS doesn't develop the system as quickly and keeps it weaker, and therefore is less likely to be influenced as strongly by upper level features (such as ridges and troughs)
5. Any combination of the above smile

Awesome, thanks for taking the time to respond in such a detailed way. I will be watching with great interest as I used to live in Aurukun and Weipa. They have had a fair wet season. A cat 4/5 would flatten every tree. Let's see how Access g performs.

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#1458347 - 22/03/2018 07:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Drought declared Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/02/2015
Posts: 168
Would really like to see this one head due south after crossing into southern Western Qld and really give us bushies a big drink, for those who missed out in the last lot. What are the chances?

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#1458359 - 22/03/2018 09:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25281
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yes ideally a southward moving system in western qld would be perfect, great back up rain for those that got wet a month ago and something for those further south who missed out. sadly not likely to be the case. looking likely to do a westward turn on or near the southern coast now.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1458362 - 22/03/2018 09:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1801
Loc: Kingaroy
A trough or front may send Ex TC Nora back towards the east according to Earth.nullschool.

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#1458365 - 22/03/2018 09:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4464
Loc: Brisbane
Access G now sends ex TC Nora into the Coral See whilst Access R also shows Nora beginning a traverse across the tip of Cape York.


The 18Z GFS run has certainly shifted East but still has Nora not being picked up by the trough. EC is now the western most forecast.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1458369 - 22/03/2018 10:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2366
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
In Windyty - shows the system stationary at the very bottom of the gulf from SUN 6pm until TUE 7am. Imagine if that happened, that tiny little island at the bottom of the gulf would be bare sand after that. Only modelling but .........


Edited by WANDJINA G'vale (22/03/2018 10:01)
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1458370 - 22/03/2018 10:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Flowin]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Marcus currently over north of WA region appears to rival Yasi, and yet another potential intense system in coming days. Good times for tropical cyclone watching.
Hope Ken gives us more track maps along the way 👍


For size, Marcus is still smaller than Yasi.
_________________________
Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1458376 - 22/03/2018 10:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Mornington island is one of the group at the bottom of the GOC.It has a community there that could get pasted if that cyclone behaved as the modelling showed.

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