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#1458799 - 24/03/2018 18:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Send it West to Broome. I dont mind Nora's leftovers in a weeks time.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1458800 - 24/03/2018 18:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3290
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Maybe one needs to pray for a miracle.

If you're so inclined.

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#1458803 - 24/03/2018 18:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12944
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
What a difference 12 hours makes:



_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1458805 - 24/03/2018 18:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12944
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued at 5:37 pm AEST [5:07 pm ACST] on Saturday 24 March 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is approaching the western side of Cape York Peninsula.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Karumba to Weipa, including Mornington Island.

Watch Zone
NT/Qld Border to Karumba.

Cancelled Zone
Mapoon to Weipa.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora at 4:00 pm AEST [3:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 13.5 degrees South 140.9 degrees East, estimated to be 145 kilometres southwest of Weipa and 240 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama.

Movement: southeast at 23 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora, Category 3, is moving southeast across the northern Gulf of Carpentaria.

The Tropical Cyclone is expected to take a more south southeasterly track tonight or early Sunday and move towards the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria coast with a predicted coastal crossing between Cape Keerweer and Gilbert River Mouth overnight tonight or during Sunday. A coastal crossing anywhere south of Aurukun this evening or Sunday remains possible. From later Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone is expected to become slow moving over land around the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria. There is a slight risk that the cyclone takes a more southerly track than depicted and remains over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria into early next week. In this scenario, the cyclone is still expected to weaken, although more slowly than if it crosses the Cape York Peninsula coast tomorrow.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Weipa and Kowanyama this evening. Gales may extend south between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth later tonight, and between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba, including Mornington Island, during Sunday morning. Gales may extend further south to between Karumba and the NT/Qld border later on Sunday or Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Weipa and Kowanyama this evening. Destructive winds may extend south between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth later Saturday night or early Sunday. Destructive winds may also extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba during Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 190 kilometres per hour may develop between Aurukun and Kowanyama, this evening or overnight, as the core of the cyclone nears the coast. If the cyclone tracks more southerly and remains over water on Sunday, maintaining its intensity, very destructive winds may extend south between Kowanyama and Karumba during Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula and extending to the Gulf Country of Queensland during Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

As the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast, a storm tide is expected between Weipa and the Gilbert River Mouth. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
People between Weipa and the Gilbert River Mouth should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be secured using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between the Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba, including Mornington Island, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:30 pm AEST Saturday 24 March [8:00 pm ACST Saturday 24 March].
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1458806 - 24/03/2018 19:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Synoptic Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2011
Posts: 74
Loc: Cairns
Eye about to enter land at Cape Keerweer by the looks of the radar.

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#1458810 - 24/03/2018 19:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12944
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Looking a bit ragged as well..
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1458813 - 24/03/2018 19:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Synoptic Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2011
Posts: 74
Loc: Cairns
Yeah Iíll say. Very elongated eye.
Shame it couldnít have sat in the gulf brewing stirring up prawns instead.

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#1458814 - 24/03/2018 19:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1140
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Is it me, or is it still a fair bit east of the latest forecast path - looks like it will cross between cape Keerweer and Pormpuraaw
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1458815 - 24/03/2018 19:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5073
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Just south of Keerweer from the looks of things. And I have a feeling it won't be crossing as a three. Doesn't look to good on radar now. The eye is a bit ragged.

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#1458818 - 24/03/2018 20:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 266
Loc: Golden Beach
Rainfall appears heavier south of Cairns 600km away than on the Cape. How does that work?

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#1458821 - 24/03/2018 20:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5112
There's a lot of upmotion along that part of the coast with the moist onshore flow (which backs around with height to a very strong NE to NW'ly flow aloft) as well as being downstream of the upper trough and to the SE of the TC.

Latest (6:40pm) ADT analysis via satellite suggests Nora has continued to weaken a bit further (see graph below) although still in Cat 3 territory.

Someone earlier also asked about whether Nora's been following the tracks from CMC and ACCESS closer than others.
Here's a comparison between the tracks from models run back on Tuesday night and the observed track so far (white) up to 4pm this afternoon:





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#1458824 - 24/03/2018 21:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1140
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Radar showing Nora just coming ashore now
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1458825 - 24/03/2018 21:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12944
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Just about, the centre of the eye is now just 30-40km from the coastline.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1458826 - 24/03/2018 21:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1140
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Earlier and a lot further north than forecast
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1458827 - 24/03/2018 21:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12944
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued at 8:30 pm AEST [8:00 pm ACST] on Saturday 24 March 2018

Headline:
The destructive core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is beginning to impact the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Karumba to Weipa.

Watch Zone
NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora at 7:00 pm AEST [6:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South 141.2 degrees East, estimated to be 25 kilometres west of Cape Keerweer and 185 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama.

Movement: southeast at 21 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora has started weaken as it nears land on the western side of the Cape York Peninsula, although it remains a Category 3 system. The eye wall of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is currently impacting the coast near Cape Keerweer. the system has begun to track more towards the south southeast in the last few hours, moving more parallel to the coast. A coastal crossing between Cape Keerweer and Gilbert River Mouth is predicted overnight tonight or during Sunday.

From later Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone is expected to become slow moving over land around the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria.

There is a slight risk that the cyclone takes a more southerly track than depicted and tracks parallel to the coast, remaining over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria into early next week. In this scenario, the cyclone is still expected to weaken, although more slowly than if it crosses the Cape York Peninsula coast this weekend.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Weipa and Kowanyama this evening. Gales may extend south between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth, including adjacent inland parts later tonight, and between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba during Sunday morning. Gales may extend further south to between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island later on Sunday or Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Weipa and Kowanyama this evening. Destructive winds may extend south between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth later Saturday night or early Sunday. Destructive winds may also extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba during Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 190 kilometres per hour may develop between Aurukun and Kowanyama, this evening or overnight, as the core of the cyclone nears the coast. If the cyclone tracks more southerly and remains over water on Sunday, maintaining its intensity, very destructive winds may extend south between Kowanyama and Karumba during Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula and extending to the Gulf Country of Queensland during Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

Coastal residents between Weipa and Gilbert River Mouth are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Recommended Action:
People between Weipa and the Gilbert River Mouth should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be secured using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between the Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:30 pm AEST Saturday 24 March [11:00 pm ACST Saturday 24 March].
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1458828 - 24/03/2018 21:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
mad mick Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/11/2007
Posts: 1183
Loc: Aitkenvale,townsville
Any chance these two cyclones are attracting each other

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html


Edited by mad mick (24/03/2018 21:33)

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#1458833 - 24/03/2018 22:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Acess is showing landfall pretty much where its happening now in its run on weatherzone. Might hold true to its movement down East coast.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1458834 - 24/03/2018 23:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2404
Loc: Thuringowa, Townsville QLD
Any reason the Darwin office is still issuing Cyclone Advice/Track maps for Nora?

It's well within the Eastern Region (i.e. Brisbane) area of responsibility now, yet Darwin are still issuing the advice for a system that is affecting QLD.

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#1458835 - 24/03/2018 23:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3290
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Maybe because forecasters think its gonado a starboard turn back into the N.T. ?

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#1458836 - 24/03/2018 23:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: PVW]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2381
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: PVW
Any reason the Darwin office is still issuing Cyclone Advice/Track maps for Nora?

It's well within the Eastern Region (i.e. Brisbane) area of responsibility now, yet Darwin are still issuing the advice for a system that is affecting QLD.


Mines been AEST since earlier today. Are you just refreshing the page?

Just noticed on this one:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQP0012.shtml

Nora as a low appears to be heading EAST.....!!
Are my eyes seeing correctly?

EDIT: Excited about nothing, looked again, and it's doing a squiggle and heading west again. What a disappointment. cry


Edited by cold@28 (24/03/2018 23:36)

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