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#1458838 - 25/03/2018 00:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: cold@28]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 805
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Originally Posted By: PVW
Any reason the Darwin office is still issuing Cyclone Advice/Track maps for Nora?

It's well within the Eastern Region (i.e. Brisbane) area of responsibility now, yet Darwin are still issuing the advice for a system that is affecting QLD.


Mines been AEST since earlier today. Are you just refreshing the page?

Just noticed on this one:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQP0012.shtml

Nora as a low appears to be heading EAST.....!!
Are my eyes seeing correctly?

EDIT: Excited about nothing, looked again, and it's doing a squiggle and heading west again. What a disappointment. cry


Doesnt mean it will go west. Only time will tell.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1458839 - 25/03/2018 00:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
times are AEST, but advice's are still being issued by Darwin for some reason despite the system being well into the Qld AOR.

System currently crossing the coastline. Still 3 hour updates for a Severe system crossing. Poor form IMO. Small population out there, but still important.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 11:25 pm AEST [10:55 pm ACST] on Saturday 24 March 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is currently crossing the western coast of Cape York Peninsula north of Pormpuraaw.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Karumba to Aurukun.

Watch Zone
NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island.

Cancelled Zone
Aurukun to Weipa.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora at 10:00 pm AEST [9:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 14.4 degrees South 141.5 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres north northwest of Pormpuraaw and 125 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama.

Movement: south southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora, Category 3, is tracking south southeastwards, slowly crossing the coast north of Pormpuraaw. As the system is moving somewhat parallel to the coast, the period of crossing will be extended, and the cyclone is only expected to weaken slowly and may still be a Category 2 or Category 3 system as it approaches Kowanyama on sunday morning.

From later Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone is expected to continue gradually weakening as it becomes slow moving over land near the southwestern base of Cape York Peninsula.

The system may move back over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria late Monday or on Tuesday, where it may reintensify briefly to a Category 1 cyclone.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Aurukun and Gilbert River Mouth , including adjacent inland parts, tonight. Gales may extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba, including adjacent inland parts, during Sunday. Gales may extend further south to between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, on Monday, depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Aurukun and Gilbert River Mouth tonight or during Sunday morning. Destructive winds may also extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba later on Sunday, depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 190 kilometres per hour may develop between Cape Keerweer and Kowanyama tonight, as the core of the cyclone moves along the coast.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula and extending to the Gulf Country of Queensland during Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

Coastal residents between Weipa and Gilbert River Mouth are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Recommended Action:
People between Aurukun and the Gilbert River Mouth should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be secured using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between the Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:30 am AEST Sunday 25 March [2:00 am ACST Sunday 25 March].
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1458840 - 25/03/2018 00:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Night Rain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/03/2010
Posts: 262
Loc: Yungaburra Qld
Originally Posted By: Mick10

System currently crossing the coastline. Still 3 hour updates for a Severe system crossing. Poor form IMO. Small population out there, but still important.



I totally agree!!!

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#1458841 - 25/03/2018 00:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Hagrid Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/02/2013
Posts: 258
Loc: Crediton Qld
Yes bloody poor! But then they went to hourly updates 40min before Marcus crossed a capital city.

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#1458843 - 25/03/2018 02:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Night Rain]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2419
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Night Rain
Originally Posted By: Mick10

System currently crossing the coastline. Still 3 hour updates for a Severe system crossing. Poor form IMO. Small population out there, but still important.



I totally agree!!!


I thought it a bit odd. Hope they are all okay up there.

And now at 1.20am Nora has disappeared off the Current Tropical Cyclone map, and both Marcus & Iris are ex-TCs.


Edited by cold@28 (25/03/2018 02:24)

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#1458845 - 25/03/2018 06:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Stickeybeak Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/03/2017
Posts: 2
So I'm confused is the 512 mornington island radar showing she's just off the coast again between kowanyama and delta downs? Earthwind looks like pormpuraaw is is still getting it and the last track map has her tracking inland then doing a uturn tomorrow morning.

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#1458846 - 25/03/2018 07:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Radioguy]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Radioguy
Thoughts are with 'em all. If it starts the southerly track soon, they should be okay, but what a ridiculous decision by the company.



Gee, that's one very bold decision to make especially if it all went wrong. It's not the sort of thing you'd want plastered all of the papers, and it certainly doesn't send a nice message to the staff and families of the staff members.

Sounds like Rio are out of touch.

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#1458847 - 25/03/2018 07:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Steve O Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3133
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Think shes pretty close to done. Lots of shear judging by the satalite. Not sure if it will get absorbed into the trough. If it can start to curve to the SSW or SW might have a better chance? It won't cross the Cape imo.


Edited by Steve O (25/03/2018 07:29)

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#1458856 - 25/03/2018 08:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
Smallfry Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 31
Loc: Alligator Creek, Townsville
Decisions to fully evacuate are usually only made based on official forecasts and advice from BOM. At the point in time when an evacuation could have been easily coordinated, all the tracking maps were showing a much more southern path. I don't have knowledge of the work site or accommodation, but looking at the forecast information they had available at the time, I think the decision was appropriate.

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#1458861 - 25/03/2018 08:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 805
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I believe the evacuations was warranted because you just dont know what would happen.

Also did anyone notice the JTWC has issued there track map shorter then usual...wonder if thats due to this system not going where they expected.


Edited by rainthisway (25/03/2018 08:29)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1458864 - 25/03/2018 08:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: rainthisway]
chestr Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2007
Posts: 117
Loc: Vincent, Townsville
Originally Posted By: rainthisway

Also did anyone notice the JTWC has issued there track map shorter then usual...wonder if thats due to this system not going where they expected.


from JTWC. 'RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 16P WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 48'

So that is why the track goes no further.

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#1458870 - 25/03/2018 09:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 805
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Its in a good location for rain for us atm. I had 79mm last night.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1458873 - 25/03/2018 09:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2359
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Radioguy
Thoughts are with 'em all. If it starts the southerly track soon, they should be okay, but what a ridiculous decision by the company.



Gee, that's one very bold decision to make especially if it all went wrong. It's not the sort of thing you'd want plastered all of the papers, and it certainly doesn't send a nice message to the staff and families of the staff members.

Sounds like Rio are out of touch.


Investors tend to not see the funny side of that kind of thing either anymore, they fear the public perception from a safety point
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1458879 - 25/03/2018 09:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: WANDJINA G'vale]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 934
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued at 8:27 am AEST [7:57 am ACST] on Sunday 25 March 2018
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Nora located over land near the coast south of Kowanyama is slowly weakening as it moves southwards.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Karumba to Cape Keerweer.
Watch Zone
NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nora at 7:00 am AEST [6:30 am ACST]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.8 degrees South 141.4 degrees East, estimated to be 50 kilometres southwest of Kowanyama and 195 kilometres north northeast of Karumba.
Movement: south southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Nora, Category 2, is slowly weakening as it tracks southwards over land near the western Cape York Peninsula coast, between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth. The system is expected to continue moving south or southsoutheast over land and slowly weaken to a tropical low tonight near the southwestern base of Cape York Peninsula if it stays over land. However, the cyclone may move south along the coast during today and tonight and weaken at a slower rate than expected.

If the cyclone remains on its current track and weakens to a tropical low, it is likely to move back over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday night or on Tuesday, where it may reintensify to a Category 1 cyclone.

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#1458882 - 25/03/2018 09:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 805
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Started its westerly track...although I dont see how its where they say it is...looks like its still further inland
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1458890 - 25/03/2018 10:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2359
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
All OCC have to do is stay put and they will get some CAT1 action - all is not lost
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1458892 - 25/03/2018 10:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3617
Loc: Gordonvale
All they would've got in Kowanyama anyway going by the obs. Max sustained 54kmh, gust 100kmh
_________________________
MTD: 0mm
Last wet season: 2260.6mm

YTD: 2165.2mm



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#1458901 - 25/03/2018 11:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2404
Loc: Thuringowa, Townsville QLD
Now that Nora is over land, Brisbane is finally taking over.

This is written twice in the current advice.
“The next advice will be issued from Brisbane TCWC by 11:00 am AEST Sunday 25 March [10:30 am ACST Sunday 25 March].”

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#1458903 - 25/03/2018 11:10 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: cold@28]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2404
Loc: Thuringowa, Townsville QLD
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Originally Posted By: PVW
Any reason the Darwin office is still issuing Cyclone Advice/Track maps for Nora?

It's well within the Eastern Region (i.e. Brisbane) area of responsibility now, yet Darwin are still issuing the advice for a system that is affecting QLD.


Mines been AEST since earlier today. Are you just refreshing the page?
:


Doesn’t matter what Timezone the page is mentioning, it’s obvious it is released from a Darwin because each product clearly states NT TCWC on the top,


“Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre”

and
“AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN”

Are shown on the top of each warning/advice page.
The other give away is that the updates have been issued at 2:30am, 5:30am, 8:30am, etc. instead of the usual 2am, 5am, 8am.

They’re being released at 2am, 5am, 8am, NT time.


Edited by PVW (25/03/2018 11:13)

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#1458919 - 25/03/2018 12:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued at 10:51 am EST on Sunday 25 March 2018

Headline:
Tropical cyclone Nora continues to weaken as it tracks down the west coast of Cape York.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Karumba to Pormpuraaw, and adjacent inland areas.

Watch Zone
NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island and Sweers Island.

Cancelled Zone
Cape Keerweer to Pormpuraaw.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nora at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.1 degrees South 141.4 degrees East, estimated to be 80 kilometres south southwest of Kowanyama and 165 kilometres north northeast of Karumba.

Movement: south at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Nora, category 1, continues to weaken as it tracks down the west coast of Cape York, between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth. Nora is expected to track southwards during today and is forecast to weaken to a tropical low by this evening.

On the current forecast track, Nora is expected to move back over southeast Gulf of Carpentaria waters during Monday and if this were to occur it is possible that it could reform back into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday. However, given the forecast track of Nora is quite close to the coast, the possibility of it moving back over water sooner cannot be ruled out.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Pormpuraaw and Karumba this morning and during this afternoon. Gales are expected to slowly contract southwards and ease into this evening.

GALES may redevelop between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island and Sweers Island, on Monday night or early Tuesday, though this will be highly dependent on Nora moving back over water and reforming into a tropical cyclone.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast over parts of the Peninsula and Gulf Country districts today, which could lead to flash flooding. A Flood Watch is current for Gulf Rivers and Cape York Peninsula.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the coastline between Weipa and Karumba, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year.

Recommended Action:
People between Pormpuraaw and Karumba should remain inside until the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island and Sweers Island should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm AEST Sunday 25 March.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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