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#1458377 - 22/03/2018 10:49 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Originally Posted By: Dan101
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Seriously now, what meteorological forces are likely to be present in the area around Saturday or Sunday that would cause one model to take a 90 degree left hand turn. There has to be some reason for ACCESS G to predict this.


Hey Snapper, my take on possible reasons:

1. More intense monsoonal cross-equatorial flow from the WNW, pushing the system westward faster and preventing it from being captured by the other steering influences;
2. The forecast upper trough to sweep across Qld does not amplify as far northwards, or different timing to the other models, therefore preventing the southward steering influence;
3. The upper ridge over WA/NT may not be as strong as has been forecast by other models, and/or slightly different orientation/timing
4. ACCESS doesn't develop the system as quickly and keeps it weaker, and therefore is less likely to be influenced as strongly by upper level features (such as ridges and troughs)
5. Any combination of the above smile

Awesome, thanks for taking the time to respond in such a detailed way. I will be watching with great interest as I used to live in Aurukun and Weipa. They have had a fair wet season. A cat 4/5 would flatten every tree. Let's see how Access g performs.


No worries smile Yep this one will be an interesting one to watch. Steering machanisms at play appear to be complex and timing will be critical.

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#1458383 - 22/03/2018 11:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4453
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Marcus currently over north of WA region appears to rival Yasi, and yet another potential intense system in coming days. Good times for tropical cyclone watching.
Hope Ken gives us more track maps along the way 👍


For size, Marcus is still smaller than Yasi.


I'm not so sure. On current size the CDO of Marcus would stretch from Cairns down to Mackay. I've gone back and checked a number of satellite images of Yasi at landfall and it certainly wasn't as big as that.

The outer bands on Yasi probably spread a little further but the CDO on Marcus is far bigger.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1458386 - 22/03/2018 11:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
you can discuss the size of Marcus in the TC Marcus thread, keep this one on topic please.
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March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1458390 - 22/03/2018 12:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 917
Loc: Bowen
Interesting to watch the last few multi model runs have shifted system east with some members now having cape crossing into Coral sea.

If it does that be interesting to see effects and intensity of a run down the NE tropical cost. Will be some good rainfall the further east it can track onto the cape

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#1458396 - 22/03/2018 12:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 280
Loc: Golden Beach
Starting to spin up on Gove radar.

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#1458397 - 22/03/2018 12:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2359
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
BOM newest mapnot showing any inclination of a Cape cross, definitely going to be solid experience for the west cape it seems ... so far
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#1458406 - 22/03/2018 14:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4453
Loc: Brisbane
Access R at 72 hrs

_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1458407 - 22/03/2018 14:28 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 755
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
Latest from JTWS

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.4S 136.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY 150
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211208Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 94P HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT (28-30 CELSIUS) BOTH IN THE ARAFURA SEA AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WHERE INVEST 94P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER
NORTHWESTERN QUEENSLAND. HOWEVER, WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 211830) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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Rainfall
2018 LOTS!!
2017: May 19th: 46mm
2017: May 18th: 113 mm Whopee ..................
2017: May 17th: 22 mm
2017: To date: 642.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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#1458408 - 22/03/2018 14:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Locke]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 703
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Access R and Access G were terrible in the forecast of TC Linda

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#1458414 - 22/03/2018 15:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6989
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The way it's looking:

First trough is a shortwave through central-west QLD which will pull Nora S or SSE towards the southern Gulf temporarily;
Once this trough weakens by Sunday so does its steering influence, so Nora slows down, meanders a bit in the gulf;
A strong longwave trough sweeps across eastern SA / VIC / S NSW on Sunday, but it's still too flat (doesn't extend far enough northward) to capture Nora and drag her SE;
The stupid aussie mid-level ridge builds in again immediately after this trough has passed and off goes Nora into NT & WA.

That is unless ACCESS-G & UKMET come off which kill her off near the Cape anyway.

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#1458428 - 22/03/2018 18:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 139
Loc: Noonamah
Both EC and GFS have it heading west from the southern end of the GOC by the beginning of next week.

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#1458431 - 22/03/2018 19:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Steve O Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3133
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
How bad? is ACCESS G performing differs so much with pretty much tge whole synoptic pattern in the region.


Edited by Steve O (22/03/2018 19:14)

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#1458447 - 22/03/2018 21:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5170
Yeah ACCESS-R was terrible with TC Linda in that it was consistently trying to bring it onto the central QLD coast even right up to the last minute. It's had issues in the past with TC's as well even when trying to initialise their current positions.
ACCESS is an Australian version of the Unified Model which forms the core of the UK model which would explain why the ACCESS tracks often look similar to the UK model's tracks.

Having said all that though, it's hard to confidently know in advance whether ACCESS will be wrong again with any given system or nail it.

Here's some graphics for anyone interested.

1st graphic - forecast shear, SST's, moisture, etc that the HWRF and GFS models currently suggest that the system may encounter along their forecast tracks.
2nd graphic - max wind swath predicted by HWRF in knots (multiply by 1.852 to convert to km/hr)
3rd graphic - spread of intensities from some of the models (non-Australian scale)
4th graphic - tracks from a few of the models out to 5 days

5th graphic - TC formation probabilities between Friday & Sunday morning from the EC ensemble via weather.us (although the title contains the term "tropical storm", this is equivalent to TC intensity in Australia and is just the naming convention that the ECMWF uses for its tropical storm/cyclone products):











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#1458450 - 22/03/2018 22:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 755
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
Latest from JTWS - sucks for Townsville

REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 135.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CAUSING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. A PARTIAL PASS FROM A 220054Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM
ADRM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-
30C). TC 16P IS BEING STEERED BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY
AT FIRST, THEN MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS DECREASES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS AT TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A RANGE
OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO THE
FORECAST TRACK BUT SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE A SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 211830).//
NNNN
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Rhubarb
I'm back .......

Rainfall
2018 LOTS!!
2017: May 19th: 46mm
2017: May 18th: 113 mm Whopee ..................
2017: May 17th: 22 mm
2017: To date: 642.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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#1458451 - 22/03/2018 22:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Chookie Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/03/2009
Posts: 1945
Loc: Kirwan
Is there any chance it could keep coming over to qld or will it go west?

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#1458452 - 22/03/2018 22:19 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Chookie]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1836
Loc: Maryfarms NQ

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#1458454 - 22/03/2018 22:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Chookie]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5170
Originally Posted By: Chookie
Is there any chance it could keep coming over to qld or will it go west?

The maps I posted above may give you an idea.

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#1458455 - 22/03/2018 22:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: marakai]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 755
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
Originally Posted By: marakai


I believe in fairies too - not looking hopeful at the moment
_________________________
Rhubarb
I'm back .......

Rainfall
2018 LOTS!!
2017: May 19th: 46mm
2017: May 18th: 113 mm Whopee ..................
2017: May 17th: 22 mm
2017: To date: 642.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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#1458456 - 22/03/2018 22:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Also interesting to note a further eastward trend in the latest EC ensemble output, showing more of a SE instead of SSE track through the gulf, and more model members crossing the cape or meandering around inland Qld.

The first image is from last night's run and the second image is from this morning's run:

LAST NIGHT (12z 21/03/18, previous run)



THIS MORNING (00z 22/03/18, latest run)

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#1458457 - 22/03/2018 22:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2230
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
I am hiring myself out for drought breaking.
Plan a trip to the cape for May, best wet season in years.
Oh well, maybe head to territory gulf area instead first. Yep, lots of rain.

Maybe Broome, haven't been there yet. Best wet season in years including the Kimberly

We are refusing to think of anywhere for our long deserved holiday at the moment but will go where ever isn't under 3 foot of water at the time.

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