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#1458458 - 22/03/2018 22:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 755
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
Blimey Dan101, that's some fishing reel tangle you found there!
_________________________
Rhubarb
I'm back .......

Rainfall
2018 LOTS!!
2017: May 19th: 46mm
2017: May 18th: 113 mm Whopee ..................
2017: May 17th: 22 mm
2017: To date: 642.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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#1458459 - 22/03/2018 22:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1895
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Hey, Chookie asked about "Any Chance" , there's always a chance with these things, Even Ken's map above has a better than 50/50 with those track maps. smile ... But yeah wishful thinking I know.

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#1458460 - 22/03/2018 22:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: bundybear]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1895
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: bundybear
I am hiring myself out for drought breaking.
Plan a trip to the cape for May, best wet season in years.
Oh well, maybe head to territory gulf area instead first. Yep, lots of rain.

Maybe Broome, haven't been there yet. Best wet season in years including the Kimberly

We are refusing to think of anywhere for our long deserved holiday at the moment but will go where ever isn't under 3 foot of water at the time.


At least there could be a good to great Gulf Prawn season this year...
Get yourself up to the MItchel fall's/ Gibb River road or the Bungles M8, you wont regret it.

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#1458462 - 22/03/2018 22:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Rhubarb]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Rhubarb
Blimey Dan101, that's some fishing reel tangle you found there!


crazy I love a good tangled mess! Keeps us all interested smile

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#1458463 - 22/03/2018 22:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: marakai]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2255
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: bundybear
I am hiring myself out for drought breaking.
Plan a trip to the cape for May, best wet season in years.
Oh well, maybe head to territory gulf area instead first. Yep, lots of rain.

Maybe Broome, haven't been there yet. Best wet season in years including the Kimberly

We are refusing to think of anywhere for our long deserved holiday at the moment but will go where ever isn't under 3 foot of water at the time.


At least there could be a good to great Gulf Prawn season this year...
Get yourself up to the MItchel fall's/ Gibb River road or the Bungles M8, you wont regret it.


Cast net will be packed. So will the fishing gear. No matter where we end up we will have a great time. grin

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#1458467 - 22/03/2018 23:10 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: bundybear]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1895
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: bundybear
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: bundybear
I am hiring myself out for drought breaking.
Plan a trip to the cape for May, best wet season in years.
Oh well, maybe head to territory gulf area instead first. Yep, lots of rain.

Maybe Broome, haven't been there yet. Best wet season in years including the Kimberly

We are refusing to think of anywhere for our long deserved holiday at the moment but will go where ever isn't under 3 foot of water at the time.


At least there could be a good to great Gulf Prawn season this year...
Get yourself up to the MItchel fall's/ Gibb River road or the Bungles M8, you wont regret it.


Cast net will be packed. So will the fishing gear. No matter where we end up we will have a great time. grin


Check out Port Warrender , North of the Mitchel Falls, It's the only other place except for Kulumbaru that you can get onto the coast at up that way. Crappy Hr + last 8-10km in to it but great place to launch a boat and the scenery is mind blowing.Everything should be pumping up that way given the Cyclone action the Northwest has had so far this year.


Edited by marakai (22/03/2018 23:11)

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#1458468 - 22/03/2018 23:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1895
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Quite a bit of a jump South over 24 Hr's here on NUllschool
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/03/23/2100Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-229.76,-15.58,2254/loc=140.703,-13.954

to this

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/03/24/2100Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-229.76,-15.58,2254/loc=140.703,-13.954

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#1458471 - 23/03/2018 00:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
not far off being a cyclone now

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 10:43 pm ACST [11:13 pm AEST] on Thursday 22 March 2018

Headline:
A Tropical Low north of Nhulunbuy is expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone early Friday morning, before moving into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Elcho Island to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy.

Watch Zone
NT/Qld Border to Thursday Island, including Weipa.

Cancelled Zone
Milingimbi to Elcho Island.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm ACST [10:00 pm AEST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 9.9 degrees South 136.4 degrees East, estimated to be 260 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy and 670 kilometres west northwest of Weipa.

Movement: east southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low is developing north of Nhulunbuy in the Arafura Sea and is expected to become a Tropical Cyclone early Friday morning. The tropical low is currently moving eastwards, towards the Gulf of Carpentaria tonight, before taking a more southeasterly path during Friday and Saturday. The system may reach Category 3 strength Saturday morning in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. Later in the weekend, the Tropical Cyclone is expected to turn more southerly and move towards the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometers per hour may develop in coastal areas between Elcho Island and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy, during Friday if the system takes a slightly more southerly track.

Gales could develop in areas between Thursday Island and Kowanyama, including Weipa, on Saturday morning. Gales may extend south between Kowanyama and the NT/Qld Border, including Mornington Island, later on Saturday. Heavy rainfall is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York over the coming days, which could potentially lead to flash flooding in parts.

As the system moves closer to the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, abnormally high tides may develop in areas between Torres Strait and Karumba. Large waves will become possible about foreshore areas.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1458475 - 23/03/2018 05:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1895
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Reckon it will be called before most people wake for the day.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9

Issued at 1:53 am ACST [2:23 am AEST] on Friday 23 March 2018
Headline:

Tropical Cyclone expected to form within the next few hours.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

Elcho Island to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy.
Watch Zone

NT/Qld Border to Thursday Island, including Weipa.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Low at 12:30 am ACST [1:00 am AEST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 9.9 degrees South 136.6 degrees East, estimated to be 255 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy and 650 kilometres west northwest of Weipa.

Movement: east northeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

A Tropical Cyclone is expected to form north of Nhulunbuy during the next few hours. The tropical low is currently moving eastwards but will begin a more southeasterly path during Friday and Saturday into the Gulf of Carpentaria. The system may reach Category 2 during Friday and Category 3 during Saturday. By Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone will most likely be located over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. However, a coastal crossing anywhere along the western Cape York Peninsula south of Weipa during Saturday or Sunday is possible.
Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometers per hour may develop in coastal areas between Elcho Island and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy, during Friday if the system takes a slightly more southerly track than forecast.

Gales could develop in areas between Thursday Island and Kowanyama, including Weipa, on Saturday morning. Gales may extend south between Kowanyama and the NT/Qld Border, including Mornington Island, later on Saturday.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula in the coming days and may extend to the Gulf Country of Queensland late Saturday and into Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

As the system moves closer to the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, abnormally high tides may develop in areas between Torres Strait and Karumba. Large waves will become possible about foreshore areas.

Snip
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQP0004.html


Edited by marakai (23/03/2018 05:51)

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#1458479 - 23/03/2018 07:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: marakai]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 4:47 am ACST [5:17 am AEST] on Friday 23 March 2018
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Nora has formed off the NT northeast coast.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Elcho Island to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy and Cape Keerweer to Thursday Island, including Weipa.
Watch Zone
NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nora at 3:30 am ACST [4:00 am AEST]:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 9.9 degrees South 136.7 degrees East, estimated to be 255 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy and 640 kilometres west northwest of Weipa.
Movement: slow moving.

The cyclone is expected to intensify as it moves southeast today heading towards the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Tropical Cyclone Nora has formed to the north of Nhulunbuy. Tropical Cyclone Nora is currently moving eastwards but will begin a more southeasterly path during today and Saturday into the Gulf of Carpentaria. The system is expected to reach Category 2 during today and reach Category 3 during Saturday. By Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone will most likely be located over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. A coastal crossing anywhere along the western Cape York Peninsula south of Weipa during Saturday or Sunday is possible.
Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Elcho Island and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy, during today if the system takes a slightly more southerly track than forecast.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Thursday Island and Cape Keerweer, including Weipa, tonight. Gales may extend south between Cape Keerweer and the NT/Qld Border, including Mornington Island, on Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Thursday Island and Cape Keerweer, including Weipa, during Saturday if the Tropical Cyclone takes a more easterly track than forecast.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula in the coming days and may extend to the Gulf Country of Queensland late Saturday and into Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

As the system moves closer to the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, abnormally high tides may develop in areas between Torres Strait and Karumba. Large waves will become possible about foreshore areas.

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#1458485 - 23/03/2018 07:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
RichieM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/08/2015
Posts: 96
Loc: Manunda, Cairns
Must be some uncertainty on it's path as the above states that a Cape crossing anywhere south of Weipa is possible but BOMs track map shows it tracking away from the Cape.

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#1458511 - 23/03/2018 09:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12986
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Latest GFS pushes it slightly more East, and stalls it a bit longer just inland of the SE GOC.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1458519 - 23/03/2018 10:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
martyy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/03/2012
Posts: 12
Loc: Cairns Beaches
Sorry guys - hate to be one of those annoying posters asking about how this cyclone will effect somewhere but here goes.

What weather is Cairns likely to see from the current forecasts? Me and the wife run a travel agency in Cairns and have a large group visiting and she's wondering If she'd be better to move their reef trips to later in the week.

I'm usually pretty good at advising her regarding coral sea issues but really have no idea when it comes to the gulf.

I know we won't feel any direct effect (I'm not that weather-stupid) but just want to know if we'll cop a drenching.


Edited by martyy (23/03/2018 10:42)
Edit Reason: carnt spel too saav mi lyf

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#1458520 - 23/03/2018 11:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1035
Loc: maadi Tully area
Hi Marty...I certainly wont be heading to the reef this weekend..it will likely be very wet...I would wait till Sunday/Monday and reassess the situation then...currently looks to be a better forecast for later on next week both rain and windwise...as you know ,though,at the moment its pretty hard to properly forecast more than a few days out ..

We are planning to get out to Hinchinbrook island for a few days campming/fishing over the next weekend but its pointless to commit until mid next week when we have a better picture of whats likely to happen..

As you well know ,for many, it may be their only Great Barrier reef experience in their entire life so its really nice to see you trying to do the best by your customers.. hope you get a few decent days next week. smile

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#1458521 - 23/03/2018 11:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Interesting few days. If the track goes more east then expected we will get smashed with rain, to west and we get little.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1458525 - 23/03/2018 11:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2255
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Since the weather seems to be determined to ruin any travel ideas I get I will try this one as a community service.

I will meander my way around outback Qld and NSW.

That should get it where it needs to go as a rain depression and ease the life of our poor farmers by watering the land and filling dams and creeks. grin

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#1458536 - 23/03/2018 12:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
pintscc Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 28
Category 2 now.


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#1458538 - 23/03/2018 12:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: bundybear]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
This will be an awesome year to go up the Cape mate. All the Barra stuck in the lagoons for years will be able to make their way in to the creeks and May is the prime time.
Originally Posted By: bundybear
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: bundybear
I am hiring myself out for drought breaking.
Plan a trip to the cape for May, best wet season in years.
Oh well, maybe head to territory gulf area instead first. Yep, lots of rain.

Maybe Broome, haven't been there yet. Best wet season in years including the Kimberly

We are refusing to think of anywhere for our long deserved holiday at the moment but will go where ever isn't under 3 foot of water at the time.


At least there could be a good to great Gulf Prawn season this year...
Get yourself up to the MItchel fall's/ Gibb River road or the Bungles M8, you wont regret it.


Cast net will be packed. So will the fishing gear. No matter where we end up we will have a great time. grin

Top
#1458541 - 23/03/2018 12:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2374
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Wow this Nora is intensifying quicker than they expected 48hrs ago. Impressed
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1458546 - 23/03/2018 13:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora - GOC - March 2018 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2374
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Wondering if it intensifies more quickly that the next predicted change point

+24hr 10 am March 24
CAT3
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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