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#1458255 - 21/03/2018 13:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Just not our year for cyclones. Time is running out rapidly.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1458257 - 21/03/2018 13:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
bigjohn Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/04/2010
Posts: 148
Loc: Proserpine
Just not our year for Cyclones....... Probably not a bad thing for me and hundreds of others waiting for our roofs and houses to be repaired.o be replaced
_________________________
Bigjohn, Proserpine,sweetest town in the North

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#1458258 - 21/03/2018 13:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 545
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I'm currently designing a script that does multi-model tracks for TC's that haven't been designated a tropical low/Invest yet.

The tracks start when the relevant model detects a min of 34kt sustained winds in any quadrant of a developing system and end when winds drop below 34kt. The markers are at 12hr intervals/

Here's an output using Monday night's 12z runs of some of the models (will probably have changed by the time you read this):


Good work Ken. While I look at others such as tropical tidbits, NCAR RAL Tropical Cyclones, and NOAA, your version is the first I have seen showing ACCESS (not that I would necessarily want to rely entirely on ACCESS, but it is good to compare)

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#1458261 - 21/03/2018 13:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 309
Loc: Golden Beach
Any update on the probable intensity?

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#1458265 - 21/03/2018 14:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 82
Loc: Rockhampton
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Any update on the probable intensity?


Cat 7

http://cdn-europe1.new2.ladmedia.fr/var/...e-aux-fakes.jpg

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#1458266 - 21/03/2018 14:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 309
Loc: Golden Beach
They will know that is a fake in Karumba. No great whites up there! Cat 4/5 mentioned earlier "bouncing around".

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#1458275 - 21/03/2018 15:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
Here's the latest (using last night's 12z runs) multi-model tracks out to 6 days

(for anyone using windy.com today for EC forecasts, the data from the 12z run didn't make it into their site for whatever reason so that site is using an older run).

I've forced the starting point for all tracks to commence from 10am Thursday for consistency regardless of whether the relevant model has intensified the system to TC intensity or not by then.

As you can see, the Gulf is living up to its classic unpredictability with track uncertainty although the consensus does still seem to suggest a general tendency for a westward curvature:



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#1458278 - 21/03/2018 15:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25309
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
all discussion on the GOC low can now be discussed here -

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...201#Post1458277
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1458371 - 22/03/2018 10:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Well seems that this season is a flop for CS crossings. Unless this GoC does what Access says or goes inland through middle of Qld then we got no chance.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1458481 - 23/03/2018 07:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2386
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Nora will be over with a flash and a bang, I wonder what is in the works next, season definitely not over, are conditions favourable or going to be so dead there is nothing left in the tank?
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1458540 - 23/03/2018 12:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: WANDJINA G'vale]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4152
Loc: El Arish
NOAA has an invest in the Coral sea http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH952018

JTWC have it listed as a medium chance of forming into a cyclone.


THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 165.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 163.9E, APPROXIMATELY
625 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND LIMITED PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, BUT ARE SPLIT ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM
BEING THE ONLY MODELS THAT DEVELOP THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1458586 - 23/03/2018 17:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4152
Loc: El Arish
JTWC have bumped this one up to a high chance, probably should be in the world thread.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 95P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
163.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 560NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
CONSOLODATE AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 222253Z BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 25KT
WINDS, WITH A SMALLER REGION OF 30KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST CREATING GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT AT 28 CELSIUS BUT BECOME UNFAVORABLE
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT AS 95P MAKES A CURVING TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH THE UKMO AND JGSM DISSENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1458655 - 24/03/2018 02:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25309
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
personally i hope this low buggers off, any chance of decent rain from Nora on the east coast is dependent on this low. too strong will ruin our easterly flow.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1458669 - 24/03/2018 08:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
windshear Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2008
Posts: 160
Loc: Bonogin, Gold Coast Hinterland
Well hello TC Iris! 3 cyclones around us at once, so much for the season being done;)

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#1458850 - 25/03/2018 08:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
And as quick as Iris is here, she's gone (BOM).

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#1458857 - 25/03/2018 08:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12998
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Well, at least QLD finally had a cyclone impact this season.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1458859 - 25/03/2018 08:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 82
Loc: Rockhampton
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
And as quick as Iris is here, she's gone (BOM).


The worst cyclone season for the coral sea ever.
2 cyclones, both lasting only 1 day each.
Thank you climate change.

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#1458860 - 25/03/2018 08:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Synoptic Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2011
Posts: 74
Loc: Cairns
Iris from JTWC
A NW movement in the CS shocked


Edited by Synoptic (25/03/2018 08:25)

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#1458862 - 25/03/2018 08:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: ifishcq]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12998
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: ifishcq
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
And as quick as Iris is here, she's gone (BOM).


The worst cyclone season for the coral sea ever.
2 cyclones, both lasting only 1 day each.
Thank you climate change.


There could be any number of reasons why this has been a quiet cyclone season for QLD. As a new member here, I'd suggest that you read this:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...oru#Post1201332
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1458935 - 25/03/2018 15:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
One of the worst coral sea seasons ever and TBH it will go down in the books as far better than it actually was. Linda was officially a cyclone but what a travesty she was and Iris formed outside our AOR, barely made it in and was as bad as Linda in regards to being a cyclone(well maybe). Why? Who knows but sheesh!!!

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