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#1460144 - 01/04/2018 17:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23684
Loc: Townsville
yup
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#1460145 - 01/04/2018 17:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: FujiWha]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: FujiWha
If the system re-intensifies to TC status, will it still have the same name..?


Yep

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#1460149 - 01/04/2018 18:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
Ta

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#1460150 - 01/04/2018 18:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1641
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
After a few days of Ex-Iris only really showing up on the visible satellite images, she is now showing up nicely on infrared.

(Time lapse of the last 24 hours and updates every 30 minutes.)
http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-QLD.aspx


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#1460152 - 01/04/2018 18:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dan101]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 465
Loc: Highgate Hill Brisvegas
Originally Posted By: Dan101
Anyone know why CIMSS has dropped this system Iris from their map?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu


Hi Dan I'm guessing because it hasn't reached TC status yet.Probably change when it gets its name back?


Edited by gawain (01/04/2018 18:35)

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#1460154 - 01/04/2018 18:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: gawain]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: gawain
Originally Posted By: Dan101
Anyone know why CIMSS has dropped this system Iris from their map?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu


Hi Dan I'm guessing because it hasn't reached TC status yet.Probably change when it gets its name back?


Naaa it had an invest on the map last night and for a few days prior, when it was a dog’s breakfast smile

Maybe just a glitch on the CIMSS site.

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#1460157 - 01/04/2018 19:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 298
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
I think I have done to much radar gorkin.....
I see 2 LLCC's??
1 east of bougainville reef and 1 right over willis is....
right next to each other???
hmm.....
256 and 512 willis radars
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR411.loop.shtml#skip
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR412.loop.shtml#skip

maybe a glass of red will help....lol

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#1460158 - 01/04/2018 19:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12960
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Does look at bit odd on the radar..

I'd place the centre about 100km WNW of Willis Is
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#1460159 - 01/04/2018 19:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: nimbuss1]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 441
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
I think I have done to much radar gorkin.....
I see 2 LLCC's??
1 east of bougainville reef and 1 right over willis is....
right next to each other???
hmm.....
256 and 512 willis radars
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR411.loop.shtml#skip
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR412.loop.shtml#skip

maybe a glass of red will help....lol


Try this time loop radar.
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR412-willis-island/2018-03-31-10/2018-04-01-10

This is the main page.
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/

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#1460160 - 01/04/2018 19:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 298
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Does look at bit odd on the radar..

I'd place the centre about 100km WNW of Willis Is


Agreed for now....lol

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#1460161 - 01/04/2018 19:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 441
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Yep

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#1460162 - 01/04/2018 19:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5177
The vorticity analysis at 850hpa via satellite (1st image) shows the areas of cyclonic curvature of the winds as at 4pm.

Latest ASCAT pass (2nd image) performed at 7:02pm also shows ex-Iris's position pretty well:





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#1460163 - 01/04/2018 19:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5089
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Messy really. Not as defined as last night that's for sure. I guess we will have to wait and see if it consolidates again or washes out.

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#1460164 - 01/04/2018 19:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
happy for it to stay weak, will hopefully allow a westerly movement
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March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
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2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1460165 - 01/04/2018 19:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1836
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
If you look at the link pabloako posted earlier with the time lapse http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-QLD.aspx , you can see the llcc underneath all the upper level stuff which seems to be getting sheared off to the SE of the sea level stuff, that might explain the two different circulations on the rain radar.

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#1460166 - 01/04/2018 19:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 917
Loc: Bowen
definitely lots of convection occurring around the system now and shear is improving so should make it to cyclone status again I would give it a fair shot now. Going to be interesting couple of days at any rate with this system.

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#1460171 - 01/04/2018 20:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
JTWC issued a TC formation alert for ex Iris:



WTPS21 PGTW 011030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 149.0E TO 19.0S 149.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 149.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 148.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 149.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 312348Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND IMPROVING LOW LEVEL BANDING EASILY
DISCERNABLE IN THE IMAGES. A 312349Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS A
BROAD SWATH OF PRIMARILY 20-25 KNOT WINDS ENCIRCLING THE
DISTURBANCE, WITH PATCHES OF 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT, WITH LIMITED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND A NARROW RIBBON OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SURROUNDED BY HIGHER (20-30 KNOTS) VALUES. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE. THE REMNANTS OF 17P HAVE
GRADUALLY BEEN TRANSITIONING FROM A SUB-TROPICAL STRUCTURE BACK TO
TROPICAL, WITH FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY(FSU) PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM
INDICATING A DEEPENING WARM CORE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER RECENT HOURS IN THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD THE ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE
REMNANTS OF 17P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD, WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021030Z.//
NNNN

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#1460172 - 01/04/2018 20:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 917
Loc: Bowen
The latest BOM Meteye model shows system as a 988HPA to the NE of Townsville at 2200hrs on Tuesday night with large area of gales extending along coast from Whitsundays - Townsville. Also note JTWC now on board with High chance for cyclone to reform. How long before BOM get on board with cyclone watch given that watch usually issued when system likely have gales impacting populated areas within 48 hrs.

Tomorrow morning would be my best guess depending on how IRIS goes pulling herself together overnight but things look more and more positive for her return.

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#1460173 - 01/04/2018 20:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 298
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns

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#1460174 - 01/04/2018 21:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2359
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Convection exploding big time, black in there too
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