Yes, check out the last couple frames...

Boom!

Well she will probably bugger off back out to wander around for a bit before heading off the grave yard now then.

already tracking slowly SE now, cant figure out why.

Ask Higgins...I see he has issued a Cyclone track map, available to his subscribers...funny that he knows where its headed when no one else does..

Exactly what we have come to expect from Higgins.

Currently in a favourable shear environment but if we were to put all of our eggs in one basket, being the 06z GFS run, shear is about to increase again and remain marginal for the foreseeable future.

if it's keep over the Warm waters the big it's is going to get that what I think any way.

It's does not matter what way it's go by that track we will have to keep a very closely watch on it's I mean.

That what I think any way.

water vapour loop....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17P/html5-wv-short.html

Iris home page from noaa....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17P/17P_floater.html

Slow moving at the moment?

JTWC has upgraded for cyclone within 24hrs.

new bom MSLP chart out...
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml

Still waiting for the SWWvto be updated hmmmm

45 minutes late.

are u kidding me?

BOM has released there 11pm update 1hour late. Still going for Tuesday for a moderate chance of cyclone status.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 6:10 am EST on Monday 2 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 4 April 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

At 4:00am EST Monday, the centre of ex-tropical cyclone Iris was located near latitude 16.7 degrees south, longitude 149.5 degrees east, about 400 km east of Cairns. The low is currently moving slowly south-southwest.

Ex-tropical cyclone Iris is likely to continue moving slowly southwest towards the tropical Queensland coast through most of today. There is some uncertainty beyond this time. Current indications are that the system will remain off of the Queensland coast and become slow moving later today. It is expected to eventually turn east and move away from the coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The system has developed further overnight, and conditions are somewhat favourable for development to continue through today and Tuesday. The probability of the system redeveloping into a tropical cyclone is rated as moderate today, increasing to high on Tuesday.

A severe weather warning is current for heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts about the periphery of the cyclone that may affect the tropical coast from tonight; refer to that product for more information.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Moderate
Tuesday:High
Wednesday:Moderate



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Can anyone explain why as of yet we still have no low at least marked on the boms cyclone map ?

Yeah I was wondering the same thing.

Because that would mean a track map and nobody knows where it’s heading?? 😀😀

😀 so true!