Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 6:10 am EST on Monday 2 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 4 April 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:
At 4:00am EST Monday, the centre of ex-tropical cyclone Iris was located near latitude 16.7 degrees south, longitude 149.5 degrees east, about 400 km east of Cairns. The low is currently moving slowly south-southwest.
Ex-tropical cyclone Iris is likely to continue moving slowly southwest towards the tropical Queensland coast through most of today. There is some uncertainty beyond this time. Current indications are that the system will remain off of the Queensland coast and become slow moving later today. It is expected to eventually turn east and move away from the coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.
The system has developed further overnight, and conditions are somewhat favourable for development to continue through today and Tuesday. The probability of the system redeveloping into a tropical cyclone is rated as moderate today, increasing to high on Tuesday.
A severe weather warning is current for heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts about the periphery of the cyclone that may affect the tropical coast from tonight; refer to that product for more information.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Moderate
Tuesday:High
Wednesday:Moderate
NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.
_________________________
Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.
Dr. Seuss