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#1461169 - 07/04/2018 20:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: FujiWha]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2398
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Originally Posted By: FujiWha
And here she goes again...some nice flaring in this view...

Iris for PM!


Unreal, you would think dead and then that shows up. I realise its not much, but ..............
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines

Valentina Zharkova - solar cycles and solar grand minimum

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#1461175 - 08/04/2018 07:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2398
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Washed out overnight -
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines

Valentina Zharkova - solar cycles and solar grand minimum

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#1461176 - 08/04/2018 07:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3587
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Dont know where you lookin' Wandjina, LLC still motoring Northish.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (08/04/2018 07:42)

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#1461181 - 08/04/2018 08:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13080
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yup, still just as defined on the visible sat image.
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1461212 - 08/04/2018 16:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 961
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 8 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 11 April 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 1pm AEST Sunday, ex-tropical cyclone Iris was situated in the Coral Sea near latitude 15.9 degrees south, longitude 153.9 degrees east, about 420km east of Willis Island and 880km east of Cairns.

Ex-tropical cyclone Iris is expected to continue to move to the north over the next few days and remain well off the Queensland coast. Conditions become more favourable for the system to redevelop somewhat from mid-week, however the chance it will redevelop into a tropical cyclone is rated as low.

There are no other significant systems in the Coral Sea and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Very low
Tuesday: Very low
Wednesday: Low

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#1461214 - 08/04/2018 17:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3587
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Interesting vapour loop, bit of convection happening over the LLC, visual improving as well. Iris is a tough old battleaxe.
So interested for visual tomorrow, see if she can consolidate the uppers.

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#1461217 - 08/04/2018 18:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Wrasse42 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2013
Posts: 324
Loc: Gladstone, Queensland
Worth noting is the quite large area of circulation around it, if only we had these conditions 2 months ago. Still in with a chance but she has a lot of work to do

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#1461223 - 08/04/2018 20:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 155
Loc: Moranbah
So many hours away, but wouldn't this take the cake...

Iris is back baby!!!

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#1461226 - 08/04/2018 21:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: FujiWha]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 704
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Originally Posted By: FujiWha
So many hours away, but wouldn't this take the cake...

Iris is back baby!!!


Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 700
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Did anybody notice the 12 Z NAVGEM model run this morning

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#1461227 - 08/04/2018 21:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 704
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Also ICON has been toying with a rejuvenated iris

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#1461228 - 08/04/2018 21:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 704
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Sorry for not stipulating but first post was 6/4/2018


Edited by Steamy (08/04/2018 21:55)

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#1461231 - 08/04/2018 22:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 155
Loc: Moranbah
Yes, NavGem has had a boner for Iris for a lot of runs... ;-)

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#1461239 - 09/04/2018 08:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1354
Loc: Whitsundays
The major models including EC are becoming more interested in a return of Iris to the Qld coast. NAVGEM continues its spectacular return all the way down the coast as a cyclone.
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Weather stations: Mount Julian and Proserpine Mill
Cyclone Chasee: Debbie 2017, Ului 2010, Dylan & Ita 2014

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#1461240 - 09/04/2018 09:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3587
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
What a way to finish the season if that were to happen. Looking nice on himawari visual. CMC moves her over NQ atm at 300hrs, not getting too excited. Need a few others to join in.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (09/04/2018 09:20)

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#1461243 - 09/04/2018 09:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
She just wont quit....and thanks for explaination of satelite images Ken.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1461248 - 09/04/2018 10:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3587
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
WATL looking encouraging for North/Central Qld after friday.

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#1461251 - 09/04/2018 11:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3587
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
That himawari looking better each frame.

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#1461256 - 09/04/2018 11:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4166
Loc: El Arish
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 153.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 154.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081701Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DISPLAY A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 081055Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS
PREDOMINANTLY 20-25 KNOT WINDS WITH AN ISOLATED 30 KNOT WIND
DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS) WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK WITH NAVGEM BEING THE
ONLY OUTLIER. NAVGEM FORECASTS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH AND
DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE RETURNING ON A
SOUTHWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT OF 17P, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1461280 - 09/04/2018 14:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Wrasse42 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2013
Posts: 324
Loc: Gladstone, Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 9 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 12 April 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

At 1pm AEST Monday, ex-tropical cyclone Iris was situated in the Coral Sea near latitude 14.8 degrees south, longitude 154.1 degrees east, about 960km east of Cooktown.
Ex-tropical cyclone Iris is expected to move slowly to the north over the next few days and remain well off the Queensland coast. Conditions become somewhat more favourable for the system to redevelop from mid-week.
There are no other significant systems in the Coral Sea and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:Very low
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Moderate



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

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#1461302 - 09/04/2018 17:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 917
Loc: Bowen
BOM back onboard also I think referring to " the low or cyclone " in the state forecast page extended outlook and mention of heavy rainfalls again btw Cooktown and Mackay.

Long Live Iris she is a little fighter.

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