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#1460958 - 04/04/2018 21:09 2018 Australian Snow Season
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4488
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's early April but temperatures are still tracking close to high Summer averages in NSW, to the dismay of some, especially when coupled with a lack of rain in many places. But turn the season will, it always does.

I don't know whether it's too soon to make predictions. We have some experts here who may care to hazard an opinion (or guess). The BOM's outlook for April to June indicates cooler and wetter for SE NSW but the record of these predictions has been mixed. I have a theory (without proof) that warmth in one season tends to be balanced by 'coolth' in another. Hot Summers are followed by cold Winters. This happened in 1896 and 1991. On the other hand the hot 2016/17 Summer was followed by a mild Winter, but a bumper snow season as there was heavy precipitation in Alpine areas. On the other hand, cool, cloudy Summers in the mid 90s were balanced by warm Winters.

ENSO seems to be neutral, so no indication there. The Annualar mode is negative, which means stronger Westerlies, good for snow. Warm seas in the Tasman are good for East Coast Lows. Combined with cold fronts, snow can result, but also warm, wet conditions.

Here's another one: in Sydney, the hottest average April maximum on record was 25.6 in 1922, reaching 31.6 on April 24. May and the following Winter were average, cold by today's standards. The average maxima in Sydney for May, June and July were 19.5 (an amazing drop of 6 degrees from the previous month), then 17.7 and 16.6. The flip happened around May 7.

So I have no idea what the coming snow season will be like except that there will be one. As always, we shall see.

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#1461186 - 08/04/2018 09:45 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Kangaroo Offline
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Registered: 28/02/2007
Posts: 123
Loc: Berowra, Sydney
I always look forward to snow and cold weather-related discussions at this time of year. Takes my attention off this awful (for me) warm weather.

Hoping for some more low level snow this year and a decent June in the Alps.

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#1462131 - 19/04/2018 17:36 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Pemmy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/11/2015
Posts: 2
Has anybody looked at Weatherzone`s predicted so called record maximum temperature for Thredbo Village for April 2018....even though 6 days do not have a maximum temperature recorded. Very unscientific.
Funnily enough this coincides with a 6 day cold spell.
If you cross reference those 6 empty temperatures with the Cabramurra temperatures for those days (similar long term climate), you get vastly different numbers.... and a record high is unlikely.

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#1462154 - 19/04/2018 20:42 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Pemmy]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2831
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Pemmy
Has anybody looked at Weatherzone`s predicted so called record maximum temperature for Thredbo Village for April 2018....even though 6 days do not have a maximum temperature recorded. Very unscientific.
Funnily enough this coincides with a 6 day cold spell.
If you cross reference those 6 empty temperatures with the Cabramurra temperatures for those days (similar long term climate), you get vastly different numbers.... and a record high is unlikely.


Another ďGoulburnĒ?

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#1462327 - 21/04/2018 16:32 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Pemmy]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4488
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There are gaps in readings all over the place, I think more so than in the past. For example, half of the hot month of January 2018 seems to be missing for Bellambi. Even capital cities have the odd missing readings.

This is indeed unfortunate, but I don't see any sinister purpose at work, other than cuts by an unsympathetic Government. I surmise it's most likely about budgets and money. Like just about everywhere else, staffing at the Bureau of Meteorology has probably been cut back to the bone, as has likely been the budget for checking and maintaining equipment.

Maybe someone who has specific knowledge would care to comment. It does mean that any monthly records or total rainfall for April 2018 in Thredbo, or for January 2018 in Bellambi, don't have much meaning, but those daily temperature recordings that are available can and should contribute to averges.

April temperature records will be smashed all over much of Australia, even if the rest of the month is average, so the loss of Thredbo records won't make much difference to the bigger picture.

Anyway, looking forward to some snow. There was a bit of settled snow in the Alpine areas early this week but warmer weather would have quickly melted it. There doesn't look to be any more snow in the offing, but it will eventually arrive.


Edited by Steve777 (21/04/2018 16:33)

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#1462420 - 23/04/2018 09:43 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3835
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
The Thredbo Village issue was a broken maximum thermometer which took a few days to be replaced (it's a manual site).


Edited by Blair Trewin (23/04/2018 09:43)

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#1462450 - 23/04/2018 20:47 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Blair Trewin]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4488
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thank you Blair.

------

GFS is showing a cold outbreak around May 7, towards the end of its run, with negative 850 temps over the Snowys and the blue line just South of Sydney. Early days yet, however.

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#1462452 - 23/04/2018 21:23 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
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Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 243
Two perhaps related processes that may generally auger well for snowfall here in w.a(and perhaps other areas as well) -

(if) an el nino modoki develops later this year - I think because of an association with wave guide patterns in the troposphere which tend to direct planetary wave activity polewards.
(though the more significant influence from memory is thought to be in the following winter)

The phase of the qbo - especially in spring - now close to easterly phase at all levels of the tropical stratosphere - associated with weakening of the polar stratospheric vortex.


Edited by snowbooby (23/04/2018 21:28)

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#1463143 - 05/05/2018 08:52 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Kino]
Pemmy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/11/2015
Posts: 2
You make some good points Steve, but when 7 out of 30 days are missing, Weatherzone or any organization involved with statistics should state that there results may be flawed due to poor data collection.
Anyway just back in Sydney from the Snowy. Nice little snowfall down to around 1600m during Friday afternoon.. This is certain to melt away again. Hopefully we get a significant fall around 20th May and the resorts will capitalise and fire up the snow guns..... but time will tell.

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#1463201 - 06/05/2018 00:31 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: snowbooby]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/05/australia-winter-2018-seasonal-outlook.html
My personal analysis of Season 2018 as a forecast. There's also a number for SC for those who look for those things. It was a massive effort, so I hope people find it somewhat useful or interesting. A few things I wanted to add in, but didn't have the research or resources to back it up as well.

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#1463221 - 06/05/2018 14:12 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Markus Offline
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Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2230
Loc: Clare, SA
Surprised no one has mentioned model forecasts for around Thursday onwards this coming week for SE Aus. BIG southerly fetch way into the uppers around a strong upper low drifting in from almost due south and associated surface low. Doesn't have the coldest surface temps which isn't surprising for this early in the season but should bring the first proper dumps of snow to many highland areas.

First significant cold of the year, cannot wait!
_________________________
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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1463259 - 06/05/2018 19:33 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Markus]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Markus
Surprised no one has mentioned model forecasts for around Thursday onwards this coming week for SE Aus. BIG southerly fetch way into the uppers around a strong upper low drifting in from almost due south and associated surface low. Doesn't have the coldest surface temps which isn't surprising for this early in the season but should bring the first proper dumps of snow to many highland areas.

First significant cold of the year, cannot wait!

30-60cm for Perisher & Thredbo IMO.
20-40cm for Victorian Majors IMO.
800-1000m snow levels are possible, BM and CT snow included.

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#1463320 - 07/05/2018 15:56 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Rsav Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2016
Posts: 87
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Thank you Blair.

------

GFS is showing a cold outbreak around May 7, towards the end of its run, with negative 850 temps over the Snowys and the blue line just South of Sydney. Early days yet, however.


What's the "blue line"?

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#1463383 - 08/05/2018 11:50 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Rsav]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Rsav
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Thank you Blair.

------

GFS is showing a cold outbreak around May 7, towards the end of its run, with negative 850 temps over the Snowys and the blue line just South of Sydney. Early days yet, however.


What's the "blue line"?

540 dam line I guess.

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#1463385 - 08/05/2018 12:13 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes - for this area, having that over your area means a reasonable chance of snow to say 1000m or 1200m or so if precip and some other factors line up smile

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#1463410 - 08/05/2018 19:36 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
isaY Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 100
Loc: ORANGE NSW 900m asl
Fingers crossed. In these parts one learns that snows no chance until it's on the ground. Still an interesting cold snap with a max of 5 or 6 degs

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#1463758 - 13/05/2018 08:57 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
snowbooby Offline
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Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 243
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/05/australia-winter-2018-seasonal-outlook.html
My personal analysis of Season 2018 as a forecast. There's also a number for SC for those who look for those things. It was a massive effort, so I hope people find it somewhat useful or interesting. A few things I wanted to add in, but didn't have the research or resources to back it up as well.


Congratulations on the effort. I realise, not intended to deal with the outlook for snow minnows like W.A - but gratifying to notice something of anomalous -ve mid-tropospheric heights spread as far as southern W.A, and our 2m temp outlook does look reasonably promising.

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#1463911 - 16/05/2018 08:22 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
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Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
Read your analysis. I appreciate the work thatís gone into but I must say it seemed like a very lengthy way to arrive at the conclusion that the season will be, average. For the most part I think the drivers were understated in terms of their influence on snow depth. I guess this is probably due to a lack of research in this field but to me it seems like adding + or - 3-5cm isnít particularly useful for determining the type of season we could expect. Those effects are simply too low to be considered a driver, ithatís the the type of difference between a few clouds, not a serious variable that needs to be considered.

If 180cm or there abouts is the average, what depths are the standard deviations from this mean? If the effects are so small that weíre talking a depth variability of 5cmís, Iíd probably not worry much about them all together, use a longer time series and just use basic statistics to assume 66% of years are one sd from the mean 95% are 2sdís etc, whilst keeping in mind the downward trend in snow depths over the past few decades.

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#1464129 - 21/05/2018 09:33 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
The average was 173cm. My prediction was 182cm. I appreciate your honesty, but if you are looking for more of a data analysis, I would suggest you look at Gerg's analysis. He has SDs, and more rigorous data aspects. I may add these to my outlook in the future however, if this is important to people. To me, it's much less about a number, and more about the climate driver analysis. That is my "style", other predictions have their own style. The number is extremely likely to be wrong, but it is more about the idea, and general trends and influences, than a number.

The numbers themselves are based upon hours of weighting and multiple influences. They may be understated, but all the levels of influences are in my opinion and I wouldn't change them, so doubling (or whatever is determined) the effect of all of the drivers would just end up in the same result. The other reason why was that the drivers were fairly neutral, so large scale effects weren't very high. Any other thoughts are appreciated though smile

One or two things you stated were things I wanted to try, but didn't have time for as well.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (21/05/2018 09:35)

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#1464130 - 21/05/2018 09:36 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: snowbooby]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/05/australia-winter-2018-seasonal-outlook.html
My personal analysis of Season 2018 as a forecast. There's also a number for SC for those who look for those things. It was a massive effort, so I hope people find it somewhat useful or interesting. A few things I wanted to add in, but didn't have the research or resources to back it up as well.


Congratulations on the effort. I realise, not intended to deal with the outlook for snow minnows like W.A - but gratifying to notice something of anomalous -ve mid-tropospheric heights spread as far as southern W.A, and our 2m temp outlook does look reasonably promising.

Thank you snowbooby smile
You are correct, not intended to relate to Western Australia snowfall, different influences and levels of that.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (21/05/2018 09:37)

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#1464198 - 22/05/2018 18:57 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
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Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
I once did a stat assignment where I found the avg snow depths at Spencerís Creek, Deep Creek and Three
mile Dam (?) based on the data available. Used the the standard 1C/150m altitude as the independent variable for snow depth. From that I then extrapolated how much the avg snow at Spencerís would decrease as the climate warms. Of course thereís heaps of other factors for the differences in snow depth at these three sites but the results I got from memory seemed quite plausible (albeit alarming!). Perhaps calc the avg snow depth at Spencerís with all available data to now, then looking at projected temp anomalies could also be useful?

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#1464805 - 01/06/2018 20:53 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Eigerwand]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
I once did a stat assignment where I found the avg snow depths at Spencerís Creek, Deep Creek and Three
mile Dam (?) based on the data available. Used the the standard 1C/150m altitude as the independent variable for snow depth. From that I then extrapolated how much the avg snow at Spencerís would decrease as the climate warms. Of course thereís heaps of other factors for the differences in snow depth at these three sites but the results I got from memory seemed quite plausible (albeit alarming!). Perhaps calc the avg snow depth at Spencerís with all available data to now, then looking at projected temp anomalies could also be useful?

Very alarming. Gerg has a chart for Australian snowfall reduction as well. It's in his charts/graphs section. That could be a useful idea.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/06/global-wind-oscillation-and-aam.html

Today I am releasing an article that represents a body of work that I have been working on for several weeks now. I have been researching the Global Wind Oscillation and the similar Atmospheric Angular Momentum, and it's global effects since around Christmas. The last few weeks, I have been digging into how this global climate driver affects our snowfall here in Australia. So this article shows the results of this research. Enjoy smile

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#1464946 - 04/06/2018 14:40 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Snowies Offline
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Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2025
Loc: Westbury
There are a few articles worth reading on the subject;

The influences of climate drivers on the Australian snow season by Pepler and A new perspective on Australian snow by Fiddes to name but two.

From the articles, the decline in snow depths is attributed to a decline in snowfalls of <10cm - i.e. weaker snow systems not making it to the alps. Unsurprisingly snow is well correlated to total rainfall, the number of rainy days and temperature - especially max temps. With virtually all the biggest years associated with a cold/wet combination.

Whilst there are some general trends with the climate drivers, especially later in the season or at shorter time frames (SAM), there is no combination that ensures or precludes a good/bad season and correlations are generally weak due to this variability.

With temps tracking above average and forecast to continue that way plus the relatively lack of frontal activity (so far) - it would seem optimistic to forecast an average or above average season, but as last year proved after a slow start, it only takes a few large dumps to make or break it. It's a brave person that forecasts the Australian Snow Season...

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#1465208 - 07/06/2018 23:52 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowies]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Snowies
There are a few articles worth reading on the subject;

The influences of climate drivers on the Australian snow season by Pepler and A new perspective on Australian snow by Fiddes to name but two.

From the articles, the decline in snow depths is attributed to a decline in snowfalls of <10cm - i.e. weaker snow systems not making it to the alps. Unsurprisingly snow is well correlated to total rainfall, the number of rainy days and temperature - especially max temps. With virtually all the biggest years associated with a cold/wet combination.

Whilst there are some general trends with the climate drivers, especially later in the season or at shorter time frames (SAM), there is no combination that ensures or precludes a good/bad season and correlations are generally weak due to this variability.

With temps tracking above average and forecast to continue that way plus the relatively lack of frontal activity (so far) - it would seem optimistic to forecast an average or above average season, but as last year proved after a slow start, it only takes a few large dumps to make or break it. It's a brave person that forecasts the Australian Snow Season...


The correlations between Aussie snow and climate drivers are real and their effects are measurable. We just don't know how to forecast the drivers very well. I am in the game for the fun, some are for the money, etc, etc....

Slow starts don't really mean anything.... if anything, it could mean a good season and ending.

Again, Gerg has written articles on the climate drivers impacts on the snow, beyond ENSO, SAM and IOD.

and My thoughts on the long term, drivers looking fairly neutral beyond the next two weeks, models with some nice setups....

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/06/7th-july-australian-long-range-snow.html

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#1465224 - 08/06/2018 09:09 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
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Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 243
I spend a deal of time wondering about snowfall from perspective of extremely marginal area. The measure here is not the amount but the number of settled falls - many are dustings - amount is really only a secondary concern and a cause of celebration if it's a little bit more than usual.

The reason I say this is because w.a had 12 verified occurrences of settling snowfall in the last two winters(15 in last three). However this may apply with marginal areas in the east as well - whether there would be any correlation between falls in non-alpine areas and the quality of the season in general? Just a thought - I guess it's at least possible for the number of falls in marginal areas to increase while the general alpine season deteriorates and vice versa, though I imagine both would trend in he same direction.

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#1465284 - 09/06/2018 07:42 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
The temperature anomaly for Australia for the month of May according to the UAH dataset was -0.4C against the 1981-2010 average.

Without getting into forbidden topics.....
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1465426 - 11/06/2018 20:05 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
Forecast looks pretty amazing in the snowies for the next week if the precipitation totals come as snow. I havenít got a hope of making it down there this season but still hope itís a big one (as always).

Snowbooby, I imagine there would definitely be a relationship between snow in marginal areas and better snow seasons. 2000 is a good example. From memory there were 3 proper settled snow events in Katoomba that winter, with the May event being one of the best events, certainly over the past 30years, but really as good as can be reasonably expected in that part of the world. It was a cracker year down at the snowies that year, a lengthy season with a good snow depth throughout.
Iíd say the years that would throw off the correlation would be those ones where a NW flow that produces good snow for the snowies but results in conditions being too warm and dry elsewhere. There was a season a few back where the snowies got a 1m in a week from such a system I believe, but conditions elsewhere were decidedly un-snowy. Also remember 2009 I think which wasnít particularly great in depth but had a really cold August so the snow remained on the ground at quite low altitudes for weeks.

As for predicting it... I wonder if the local aboriginal people ever noticed any
difference in animal behaviour prior to winter indicating what could be in store.

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#1465429 - 11/06/2018 20:18 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
highcountry Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/02/2014
Posts: 28
I doubt very much that an ancient people group watching primitive animal behavior somehow had a more advanced forecasting methodology than what is often showcased here - no, this is not a racist statement.

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#1465464 - 12/06/2018 11:23 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: snowbooby]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3835
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I spend a deal of time wondering about snowfall from perspective of extremely marginal area. The measure here is not the amount but the number of settled falls - many are dustings - amount is really only a secondary concern and a cause of celebration if it's a little bit more than usual.

The reason I say this is because w.a had 12 verified occurrences of settling snowfall in the last two winters(15 in last three). However this may apply with marginal areas in the east as well - whether there would be any correlation between falls in non-alpine areas and the quality of the season in general? Just a thought - I guess it's at least possible for the number of falls in marginal areas to increase while the general alpine season deteriorates and vice versa, though I imagine both would trend in he same direction.


1965 is a good example of that - legendary for its huge snowfall in the Blue Mountains and north into Queensland, but a fairly poor season in the Alps.

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#1465636 - 14/06/2018 21:26 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: highcountry]
Eigerwand Offline
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Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
Originally Posted By: highcountry
I doubt very much that an ancient people group watching primitive animal behavior somehow had a more advanced forecasting methodology than what is often showcased here - no, this is not a racist statement.


Who said anything about it being more advanced? I was merely posing that perhaps there could be some knowledge given the time frames aboriginal people spent in the area that may be relevant. Obviously snow depth as such wouldnít have been of much interest to them, but maybe things like the amount of snow melt and the effects on streams and rivers was. Or things like Bogong Moths. They ate them, perhaps they noticed certain patterns in regards to food availability that could be attributed to the type of winter the Snowies experience.

I would think that given the sabotaging of the climate system humans have unleashed over the past 100years or so, trying to predict something as fickle as Australian snowfall would be very difficult no matter how sophisticated the modelling techniques. I would never dismiss the possibility of finding clues in the natural world and that oh so ďprimitive animal behaviourĒ.

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#1466301 - 23/06/2018 23:08 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/06/23rd-june-australian-long-range-snow.html

My current thoughts around the long term snow outlook for Australia.

The next weekend system also looks interesting for some decent snowfall with a bit of model evolution.

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#1468175 - 02/08/2018 20:48 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
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Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 243
Nice little drop remaining on BK(Bluff Knoll) this morning from the small hours. I'd rekkon 3 to 4 cm overall - a little better in favorable areas. Seemed to hold up well - may've been a tad cooler than forecast. was certainly impressive as morning light emerged and enjoyed by a happy group on fairly limited summit space. would like to post pics but having technical issues. Possibly may have a mention in media in east, I haven't checked.

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#1468199 - 03/08/2018 07:10 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4488
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here's an ABC report on the WA cold front, including snow on Bluff Knoll: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-02/pe...-homes/10064746

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#1468209 - 03/08/2018 09:31 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
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Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 243
Thanks Steve777. Southern w.a seems to be in the "slot" at the moment- a series of cold fronts in coming days, with significantly cold air aloft.

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#1468302 - 05/08/2018 00:00 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Not much chatter about another dump on the way.

https://mobile.twitter.com/longrangesnow/status/1025589730350518272
My take on it. 40-60cm over the next couple of days IMO.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/08/4th-august-australian-long-range-snow.html
And my usual long term snow outlook. AAO looking great at the moment.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (05/08/2018 00:00)

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#1468330 - 05/08/2018 17:21 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 243
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Here's an ABC report on the WA cold front, including snow on Bluff Knoll: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-02/pe...-homes/10064746


Dont know if BK dusting late last night into the early hours today sunday, would have received the same attention as thursday's - no local media present during my stay.

2-3 cm with a little deeper on south sloping summit plateau built up by a cruel southerly. Looked set to hang about awhile this morning. Colder this time around with sunup temp about negative 1.5 and wind chill (conservative estimate) I'd think running down to -7. Perhaps could have been lower in gusts.

It just keeps coming at the moment - another fairly decent cold pool forecast to loop well north of Albany in coming days.

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#1468339 - 05/08/2018 19:02 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
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Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
2 snowfalls there of actual settled snow would be pretty good for a typical winter nowadays right?
I would imagine given Bluff Knollís altitude and latitude it would have maybe got about 3 snowfalls on avg each winter prior to 2000 and maybe about 1-2 a season since then?

Maybe thatís a bit of an overestimate?


Edited by Eigerwand (05/08/2018 19:09)

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#1468343 - 05/08/2018 19:25 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Eigerwand]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 61
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
2 snowfalls there of actual settled snow would be pretty good for a typical winter nowadays right?
I would imagine given Bluff Knollís altitude and latitude it would have maybe got about 3 snowfalls on avg each winter prior to 2000 and maybe about 1-2 a season since then?

Maybe thatís a bit of an overestimate?


I found an article last year on Bluff Knoll http://www.feargod.net/wa-snow1.php

The 1965-2003 average was one fall per year, but the page states it may likely be more frequent as not all snow falls will have observers due to the isolated nature of the range and quick melting nature of the snow.

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#1468345 - 05/08/2018 19:48 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
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Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
What a great article, thanks for that! I was pretty blown away to read of those two falls in the Ď90s of 20cmís!

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#1468351 - 05/08/2018 21:30 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Eigerwand]
snowbooby Offline
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Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 243
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
2 snowfalls there of actual settled snow would be pretty good for a typical winter nowadays right?
I would imagine given Bluff Knollís altitude and latitude it would have maybe got about 3 snowfalls on avg each winter prior to 2000 and maybe about 1-2 a season since then?

Maybe thatís a bit of an overestimate?


I dont have any experience prior to 2009 - only know something of the earlier history from the "Snow in W.A" website.

Between 2009 and 2015 while I experienced numerous snowfalls on BK, I dont think I saw any significant settling(One good settled fall in spring 2012 I missed).

Perhaps there may've been a pattern then of higher winter minimums(haven't verified) which changed about 2015 - 3 settled falls that year - then 2016 and 2017 each having 6...that brings it up to now and this year.

Perhaps some sort of decal variability at play?


Edited by snowbooby (05/08/2018 21:32)

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#1468405 - 06/08/2018 17:34 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The models show a bit of a cold outbreak next Sunday 12th, with 850 temps over the central parts of NSW below zero and some moisture about. Meteye shows snow in the Orange area and about the Oberon Plateau, although none East of the Divide. The 7 day forecast mentions the 'possibility' of snow in Orange on Sunday.

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#1468452 - 07/08/2018 12:28 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Kangaroo Offline
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Registered: 28/02/2007
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Loc: Berowra, Sydney
For those who aren't aware, there's a webcam set up in Oberon
c/o Oberon Tourism:

http://oberon.liveweatherviews.com/11.mp4

Nice cover this morning

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#1468465 - 07/08/2018 15:46 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Kangaroo]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thanks for posting Kangaroo.

Here are some local press reports: Western Advocate Aug 7

Snow is also forecast in parts of the Central Tablelands on Sunday Western Advocate Snow


Edited by Steve777 (07/08/2018 15:51)

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#1468489 - 08/08/2018 07:04 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Kangaroo Offline
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Registered: 28/02/2007
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Loc: Berowra, Sydney
Done 4 ski trips to Perisher so far this season (3 more to come), plus Oberon for 3 snowfalls and planning this Sunday. Can't get enough of the stuff.

Had some really good skiing, but been frustrated by the strong winds and the subsequent closure of lifts and the scouring of the snow creating ice skating rink conditions at times.

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#1468576 - 10/08/2018 11:30 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Snow depths in Alpine areas are tracking pretty much on a par with last year's bumper season, with 179 cm at Spencer's Creek: Snowy Hydro Snow Depths. Looking at the forecast, there's more to come over the next week or so.

The forecast also indicates snow falls for the Central Tablelands overnight tomorrow into Sunday morning, possibly as low as 700 metres. The change is short-lived, with snow again pretty much restricted to West of the Divide.

This Westerly pattern seems good for precipitation and snow at high elevations on the Western side of the Great Dividing range in Southern NSW, although not so good for the rest of the State.

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#1468632 - 10/08/2018 20:51 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
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Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 243
The system you're anticipating left a 1cm dusting on Bluff Knoll overnight thursday.

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#1468641 - 11/08/2018 07:21 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Kangaroo Offline
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Registered: 28/02/2007
Posts: 123
Loc: Berowra, Sydney
Thanks Steve777

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#1468842 - 15/08/2018 07:51 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
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Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
Looks like another good week of snow for the Snowies with that strong front at the end of the week.
I must say Iíve been quite surprised by the season this year given the warm, dry conditions (some cold minima however) that have been going on for much of NSW north of the Snowies. Glad to see that snowdepth keep building.

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#1468962 - 17/08/2018 02:41 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Stoxxo Offline
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Registered: 12/04/2014
Posts: 22
Loc: Central Coast
A bit late but the front that came through on the 7th produced about 5-10cm at Edith in the Oberon area
https://imgur.com/HE45Of6

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#1469509 - 26/08/2018 00:21 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 328
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
My final long Range snow outlook of the season.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/08/26th-august-australian-long-range.html
A two sided look at the models, a view into the mostly neutral (for the moment) drivers and a brief reflection.

I reckon this season has been better than last year, certainly from skiing Buller and in Victoria.

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#1469522 - 26/08/2018 08:55 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2831
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Your 15/7 outlook said ďpoorĒ yet theyíve probably had their best season in decades? 💁🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️💅🏻

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#1469527 - 26/08/2018 10:16 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5203
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Iíd like to say thanks for all the effort youíve put into generating these forecasts and sharing them with us. Have really appreciated your work. Also skied for the first time this year and loved it 🎿 ⛷

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#1469636 - 28/08/2018 10:49 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Mcbobbings Offline
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Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 61
I thought I'd share this ABC article on Mt. Buller, it has some lovely pictures of the snow at Buller and describes life on the mountain and is a brief summary of the ski industry in general.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-28/mt-buller-ski-town-snow-photo-essay/10077370

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#1470190 - 05/09/2018 08:09 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
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Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
So it's looking like we've maybe hit the max snow depth at Spencers Creek for the season and we're on the downslope. Max depth so far was 224.6cm's on Aug 22nd. Despite the hype, this year has actually come in a little lower than last year at 240.9cm.

Now, I recently used the Snowy Hydro data to dispatch with some rather erroneous views expressed in a different thread on here wrt to the historical significance of this years snow season. In doing so I made the point that one of the notable differences we're are seeing as part of the general downtrend at Spencers, is the very significant decline at the lower altitude sites of Deep Creek and Three Mile Dam. I feel Spencers may only be a decade or so away at it's slightly higher altitude before we see an abrupt decline in snow depths.

Amazing how well the decline of the snow depths at the lower altitude sites fits in with the decline in frequency and size of snowfalls in the more marginal snow areas of Australia such as the CT's and NT's in NSW.

I also came across this incredibly helpful graph to get a visual of this sad state of affairs:

http://www.sbs.com.au/interactive/2015/kosciuszko-snow-depth/

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#1470196 - 05/09/2018 09:19 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3835
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Indeed - the downward signal is stronger at lower altitudes, and early and late in the season.

A few years ago we unearthed a ~50 year snow record at Bukalong, at 800m elevation northwest of Bombala - the only one of its type we know of at a site outside the alpine area but high enough to get snow in most winters. This showed a more striking downward trend than any of the Snowy Hydro sites. Unfortunately, the data set ends in the early 2000s.

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#1470202 - 05/09/2018 11:51 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
😢

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#1474719 - 26/10/2018 11:53 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4488
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A final farewell to snow season 2018. There was still 26.5 cm at Spencers Creek the other day. There might still be a bit as November dawns, but I don't think it will last much longer with the forecast warm up next week:

Snowy Hydro Snow Depths

Meanwhile, snow is long gone from lower levels.

It was apparently a great snow season in the Alps, with the depth peaking at 2.25 metres in late August and plenty of snow to the end of the season in early Octber, but it was only slim pickings outside the Alpine areas, with no 'Event' threads this year.

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#1474844 - 29/10/2018 09:27 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 243
I think that while the polar stratospheric vortex holds together as it seems to be doing this year, there's always the chance of a late significant cold outbreak

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#1476408 - 21/11/2018 22:00 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
Absolute gem of a system for the Snowies by the looks of it over the next couple of days 😍

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#1476553 - 22/11/2018 17:31 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4488
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Looking at the snow cams under 'Surf & Snow' on Weatherzone, the snow's come back. A further 12-25 cm is expected over the next two days.

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