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#1460958 - 04/04/2018 21:09 2018 Australian Snow Season
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4182
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's early April but temperatures are still tracking close to high Summer averages in NSW, to the dismay of some, especially when coupled with a lack of rain in many places. But turn the season will, it always does.

I don't know whether it's too soon to make predictions. We have some experts here who may care to hazard an opinion (or guess). The BOM's outlook for April to June indicates cooler and wetter for SE NSW but the record of these predictions has been mixed. I have a theory (without proof) that warmth in one season tends to be balanced by 'coolth' in another. Hot Summers are followed by cold Winters. This happened in 1896 and 1991. On the other hand the hot 2016/17 Summer was followed by a mild Winter, but a bumper snow season as there was heavy precipitation in Alpine areas. On the other hand, cool, cloudy Summers in the mid 90s were balanced by warm Winters.

ENSO seems to be neutral, so no indication there. The Annualar mode is negative, which means stronger Westerlies, good for snow. Warm seas in the Tasman are good for East Coast Lows. Combined with cold fronts, snow can result, but also warm, wet conditions.

Here's another one: in Sydney, the hottest average April maximum on record was 25.6 in 1922, reaching 31.6 on April 24. May and the following Winter were average, cold by today's standards. The average maxima in Sydney for May, June and July were 19.5 (an amazing drop of 6 degrees from the previous month), then 17.7 and 16.6. The flip happened around May 7.

So I have no idea what the coming snow season will be like except that there will be one. As always, we shall see.

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#1461186 - 08/04/2018 09:45 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Kangaroo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2007
Posts: 119
Loc: Berowra, Sydney
I always look forward to snow and cold weather-related discussions at this time of year. Takes my attention off this awful (for me) warm weather.

Hoping for some more low level snow this year and a decent June in the Alps.

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#1462131 - 19/04/2018 17:36 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Pemmy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/11/2015
Posts: 2
Has anybody looked at Weatherzone`s predicted so called record maximum temperature for Thredbo Village for April 2018....even though 6 days do not have a maximum temperature recorded. Very unscientific.
Funnily enough this coincides with a 6 day cold spell.
If you cross reference those 6 empty temperatures with the Cabramurra temperatures for those days (similar long term climate), you get vastly different numbers.... and a record high is unlikely.

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#1462154 - 19/04/2018 20:42 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Pemmy]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2194
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Pemmy
Has anybody looked at Weatherzone`s predicted so called record maximum temperature for Thredbo Village for April 2018....even though 6 days do not have a maximum temperature recorded. Very unscientific.
Funnily enough this coincides with a 6 day cold spell.
If you cross reference those 6 empty temperatures with the Cabramurra temperatures for those days (similar long term climate), you get vastly different numbers.... and a record high is unlikely.


Another ďGoulburnĒ?

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#1462327 - 21/04/2018 16:32 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Pemmy]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4182
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There are gaps in readings all over the place, I think more so than in the past. For example, half of the hot month of January 2018 seems to be missing for Bellambi. Even capital cities have the odd missing readings.

This is indeed unfortunate, but I don't see any sinister purpose at work, other than cuts by an unsympathetic Government. I surmise it's most likely about budgets and money. Like just about everywhere else, staffing at the Bureau of Meteorology has probably been cut back to the bone, as has likely been the budget for checking and maintaining equipment.

Maybe someone who has specific knowledge would care to comment. It does mean that any monthly records or total rainfall for April 2018 in Thredbo, or for January 2018 in Bellambi, don't have much meaning, but those daily temperature recordings that are available can and should contribute to averges.

April temperature records will be smashed all over much of Australia, even if the rest of the month is average, so the loss of Thredbo records won't make much difference to the bigger picture.

Anyway, looking forward to some snow. There was a bit of settled snow in the Alpine areas early this week but warmer weather would have quickly melted it. There doesn't look to be any more snow in the offing, but it will eventually arrive.


Edited by Steve777 (21/04/2018 16:33)

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#1462420 - 23/04/2018 09:43 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3785
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
The Thredbo Village issue was a broken maximum thermometer which took a few days to be replaced (it's a manual site).


Edited by Blair Trewin (23/04/2018 09:43)

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#1462450 - 23/04/2018 20:47 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Blair Trewin]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4182
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thank you Blair.

------

GFS is showing a cold outbreak around May 7, towards the end of its run, with negative 850 temps over the Snowys and the blue line just South of Sydney. Early days yet, however.

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#1462452 - 23/04/2018 21:23 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 167
Two perhaps related processes that may generally auger well for snowfall here in w.a(and perhaps other areas as well) -

(if) an el nino modoki develops later this year - I think because of an association with wave guide patterns in the troposphere which tend to direct planetary wave activity polewards.
(though the more significant influence from memory is thought to be in the following winter)

The phase of the qbo - especially in spring - now close to easterly phase at all levels of the tropical stratosphere - associated with weakening of the polar stratospheric vortex.


Edited by snowbooby (23/04/2018 21:28)

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#1463143 - 05/05/2018 08:52 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Kino]
Pemmy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/11/2015
Posts: 2
You make some good points Steve, but when 7 out of 30 days are missing, Weatherzone or any organization involved with statistics should state that there results may be flawed due to poor data collection.
Anyway just back in Sydney from the Snowy. Nice little snowfall down to around 1600m during Friday afternoon.. This is certain to melt away again. Hopefully we get a significant fall around 20th May and the resorts will capitalise and fire up the snow guns..... but time will tell.

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#1463201 - 06/05/2018 00:31 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: snowbooby]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 325
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/05/australia-winter-2018-seasonal-outlook.html
My personal analysis of Season 2018 as a forecast. There's also a number for SC for those who look for those things. It was a massive effort, so I hope people find it somewhat useful or interesting. A few things I wanted to add in, but didn't have the research or resources to back it up as well.

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#1463221 - 06/05/2018 14:12 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2173
Loc: Clare, SA
Surprised no one has mentioned model forecasts for around Thursday onwards this coming week for SE Aus. BIG southerly fetch way into the uppers around a strong upper low drifting in from almost due south and associated surface low. Doesn't have the coldest surface temps which isn't surprising for this early in the season but should bring the first proper dumps of snow to many highland areas.

First significant cold of the year, cannot wait!
_________________________
My Blogging site.

http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1463259 - 06/05/2018 19:33 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Markus]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 325
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Markus
Surprised no one has mentioned model forecasts for around Thursday onwards this coming week for SE Aus. BIG southerly fetch way into the uppers around a strong upper low drifting in from almost due south and associated surface low. Doesn't have the coldest surface temps which isn't surprising for this early in the season but should bring the first proper dumps of snow to many highland areas.

First significant cold of the year, cannot wait!

30-60cm for Perisher & Thredbo IMO.
20-40cm for Victorian Majors IMO.
800-1000m snow levels are possible, BM and CT snow included.

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#1463320 - 07/05/2018 15:56 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Rsav Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2016
Posts: 79
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Thank you Blair.

------

GFS is showing a cold outbreak around May 7, towards the end of its run, with negative 850 temps over the Snowys and the blue line just South of Sydney. Early days yet, however.


What's the "blue line"?

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#1463383 - 08/05/2018 11:50 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Rsav]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 325
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Rsav
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Thank you Blair.

------

GFS is showing a cold outbreak around May 7, towards the end of its run, with negative 850 temps over the Snowys and the blue line just South of Sydney. Early days yet, however.


What's the "blue line"?

540 dam line I guess.

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#1463385 - 08/05/2018 12:13 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes - for this area, having that over your area means a reasonable chance of snow to say 1000m or 1200m or so if precip and some other factors line up smile

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#1463410 - 08/05/2018 19:36 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
isaY Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 100
Loc: ORANGE NSW 900m asl
Fingers crossed. In these parts one learns that snows no chance until it's on the ground. Still an interesting cold snap with a max of 5 or 6 degs

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#1463758 - 13/05/2018 08:57 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 167
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/05/australia-winter-2018-seasonal-outlook.html
My personal analysis of Season 2018 as a forecast. There's also a number for SC for those who look for those things. It was a massive effort, so I hope people find it somewhat useful or interesting. A few things I wanted to add in, but didn't have the research or resources to back it up as well.


Congratulations on the effort. I realise, not intended to deal with the outlook for snow minnows like W.A - but gratifying to notice something of anomalous -ve mid-tropospheric heights spread as far as southern W.A, and our 2m temp outlook does look reasonably promising.

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#1463911 - 16/05/2018 08:22 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 230
Read your analysis. I appreciate the work thatís gone into but I must say it seemed like a very lengthy way to arrive at the conclusion that the season will be, average. For the most part I think the drivers were understated in terms of their influence on snow depth. I guess this is probably due to a lack of research in this field but to me it seems like adding + or - 3-5cm isnít particularly useful for determining the type of season we could expect. Those effects are simply too low to be considered a driver, ithatís the the type of difference between a few clouds, not a serious variable that needs to be considered.

If 180cm or there abouts is the average, what depths are the standard deviations from this mean? If the effects are so small that weíre talking a depth variability of 5cmís, Iíd probably not worry much about them all together, use a longer time series and just use basic statistics to assume 66% of years are one sd from the mean 95% are 2sdís etc, whilst keeping in mind the downward trend in snow depths over the past few decades.

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#1464129 - 21/05/2018 09:33 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 325
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
The average was 173cm. My prediction was 182cm. I appreciate your honesty, but if you are looking for more of a data analysis, I would suggest you look at Gerg's analysis. He has SDs, and more rigorous data aspects. I may add these to my outlook in the future however, if this is important to people. To me, it's much less about a number, and more about the climate driver analysis. That is my "style", other predictions have their own style. The number is extremely likely to be wrong, but it is more about the idea, and general trends and influences, than a number.

The numbers themselves are based upon hours of weighting and multiple influences. They may be understated, but all the levels of influences are in my opinion and I wouldn't change them, so doubling (or whatever is determined) the effect of all of the drivers would just end up in the same result. The other reason why was that the drivers were fairly neutral, so large scale effects weren't very high. Any other thoughts are appreciated though smile

One or two things you stated were things I wanted to try, but didn't have time for as well.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (21/05/2018 09:35)

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#1464130 - 21/05/2018 09:36 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: snowbooby]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 325
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/05/australia-winter-2018-seasonal-outlook.html
My personal analysis of Season 2018 as a forecast. There's also a number for SC for those who look for those things. It was a massive effort, so I hope people find it somewhat useful or interesting. A few things I wanted to add in, but didn't have the research or resources to back it up as well.


Congratulations on the effort. I realise, not intended to deal with the outlook for snow minnows like W.A - but gratifying to notice something of anomalous -ve mid-tropospheric heights spread as far as southern W.A, and our 2m temp outlook does look reasonably promising.

Thank you snowbooby smile
You are correct, not intended to relate to Western Australia snowfall, different influences and levels of that.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (21/05/2018 09:37)

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#1464198 - 22/05/2018 18:57 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 230
I once did a stat assignment where I found the avg snow depths at Spencerís Creek, Deep Creek and Three
mile Dam (?) based on the data available. Used the the standard 1C/150m altitude as the independent variable for snow depth. From that I then extrapolated how much the avg snow at Spencerís would decrease as the climate warms. Of course thereís heaps of other factors for the differences in snow depth at these three sites but the results I got from memory seemed quite plausible (albeit alarming!). Perhaps calc the avg snow depth at Spencerís with all available data to now, then looking at projected temp anomalies could also be useful?

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#1464805 - 01/06/2018 20:53 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Eigerwand]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 325
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
I once did a stat assignment where I found the avg snow depths at Spencerís Creek, Deep Creek and Three
mile Dam (?) based on the data available. Used the the standard 1C/150m altitude as the independent variable for snow depth. From that I then extrapolated how much the avg snow at Spencerís would decrease as the climate warms. Of course thereís heaps of other factors for the differences in snow depth at these three sites but the results I got from memory seemed quite plausible (albeit alarming!). Perhaps calc the avg snow depth at Spencerís with all available data to now, then looking at projected temp anomalies could also be useful?

Very alarming. Gerg has a chart for Australian snowfall reduction as well. It's in his charts/graphs section. That could be a useful idea.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/06/global-wind-oscillation-and-aam.html

Today I am releasing an article that represents a body of work that I have been working on for several weeks now. I have been researching the Global Wind Oscillation and the similar Atmospheric Angular Momentum, and it's global effects since around Christmas. The last few weeks, I have been digging into how this global climate driver affects our snowfall here in Australia. So this article shows the results of this research. Enjoy smile

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#1464946 - 04/06/2018 14:40 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1987
Loc: Westbury
There are a few articles worth reading on the subject;

The influences of climate drivers on the Australian snow season by Pepler and A new perspective on Australian snow by Fiddes to name but two.

From the articles, the decline in snow depths is attributed to a decline in snowfalls of <10cm - i.e. weaker snow systems not making it to the alps. Unsurprisingly snow is well correlated to total rainfall, the number of rainy days and temperature - especially max temps. With virtually all the biggest years associated with a cold/wet combination.

Whilst there are some general trends with the climate drivers, especially later in the season or at shorter time frames (SAM), there is no combination that ensures or precludes a good/bad season and correlations are generally weak due to this variability.

With temps tracking above average and forecast to continue that way plus the relatively lack of frontal activity (so far) - it would seem optimistic to forecast an average or above average season, but as last year proved after a slow start, it only takes a few large dumps to make or break it. It's a brave person that forecasts the Australian Snow Season...

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#1465208 - 07/06/2018 23:52 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowies]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 325
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Snowies
There are a few articles worth reading on the subject;

The influences of climate drivers on the Australian snow season by Pepler and A new perspective on Australian snow by Fiddes to name but two.

From the articles, the decline in snow depths is attributed to a decline in snowfalls of <10cm - i.e. weaker snow systems not making it to the alps. Unsurprisingly snow is well correlated to total rainfall, the number of rainy days and temperature - especially max temps. With virtually all the biggest years associated with a cold/wet combination.

Whilst there are some general trends with the climate drivers, especially later in the season or at shorter time frames (SAM), there is no combination that ensures or precludes a good/bad season and correlations are generally weak due to this variability.

With temps tracking above average and forecast to continue that way plus the relatively lack of frontal activity (so far) - it would seem optimistic to forecast an average or above average season, but as last year proved after a slow start, it only takes a few large dumps to make or break it. It's a brave person that forecasts the Australian Snow Season...


The correlations between Aussie snow and climate drivers are real and their effects are measurable. We just don't know how to forecast the drivers very well. I am in the game for the fun, some are for the money, etc, etc....

Slow starts don't really mean anything.... if anything, it could mean a good season and ending.

Again, Gerg has written articles on the climate drivers impacts on the snow, beyond ENSO, SAM and IOD.

and My thoughts on the long term, drivers looking fairly neutral beyond the next two weeks, models with some nice setups....

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/06/7th-july-australian-long-range-snow.html

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#1465224 - 08/06/2018 09:09 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 167
I spend a deal of time wondering about snowfall from perspective of extremely marginal area. The measure here is not the amount but the number of settled falls - many are dustings - amount is really only a secondary concern and a cause of celebration if it's a little bit more than usual.

The reason I say this is because w.a had 12 verified occurrences of settling snowfall in the last two winters(15 in last three). However this may apply with marginal areas in the east as well - whether there would be any correlation between falls in non-alpine areas and the quality of the season in general? Just a thought - I guess it's at least possible for the number of falls in marginal areas to increase while the general alpine season deteriorates and vice versa, though I imagine both would trend in he same direction.

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#1465284 - 09/06/2018 07:42 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4453
Loc: Brisbane
The temperature anomaly for Australia for the month of May according to the UAH dataset was -0.4C against the 1981-2010 average.

Without getting into forbidden topics.....
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1465426 - 11/06/2018 20:05 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 230
Forecast looks pretty amazing in the snowies for the next week if the precipitation totals come as snow. I havenít got a hope of making it down there this season but still hope itís a big one (as always).

Snowbooby, I imagine there would definitely be a relationship between snow in marginal areas and better snow seasons. 2000 is a good example. From memory there were 3 proper settled snow events in Katoomba that winter, with the May event being one of the best events, certainly over the past 30years, but really as good as can be reasonably expected in that part of the world. It was a cracker year down at the snowies that year, a lengthy season with a good snow depth throughout.
Iíd say the years that would throw off the correlation would be those ones where a NW flow that produces good snow for the snowies but results in conditions being too warm and dry elsewhere. There was a season a few back where the snowies got a 1m in a week from such a system I believe, but conditions elsewhere were decidedly un-snowy. Also remember 2009 I think which wasnít particularly great in depth but had a really cold August so the snow remained on the ground at quite low altitudes for weeks.

As for predicting it... I wonder if the local aboriginal people ever noticed any
difference in animal behaviour prior to winter indicating what could be in store.

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#1465429 - 11/06/2018 20:18 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
highcountry Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/02/2014
Posts: 28
I doubt very much that an ancient people group watching primitive animal behavior somehow had a more advanced forecasting methodology than what is often showcased here - no, this is not a racist statement.

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#1465464 - 12/06/2018 11:23 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: snowbooby]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3785
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I spend a deal of time wondering about snowfall from perspective of extremely marginal area. The measure here is not the amount but the number of settled falls - many are dustings - amount is really only a secondary concern and a cause of celebration if it's a little bit more than usual.

The reason I say this is because w.a had 12 verified occurrences of settling snowfall in the last two winters(15 in last three). However this may apply with marginal areas in the east as well - whether there would be any correlation between falls in non-alpine areas and the quality of the season in general? Just a thought - I guess it's at least possible for the number of falls in marginal areas to increase while the general alpine season deteriorates and vice versa, though I imagine both would trend in he same direction.


1965 is a good example of that - legendary for its huge snowfall in the Blue Mountains and north into Queensland, but a fairly poor season in the Alps.

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#1465636 - 14/06/2018 21:26 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: highcountry]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 230
Originally Posted By: highcountry
I doubt very much that an ancient people group watching primitive animal behavior somehow had a more advanced forecasting methodology than what is often showcased here - no, this is not a racist statement.


Who said anything about it being more advanced? I was merely posing that perhaps there could be some knowledge given the time frames aboriginal people spent in the area that may be relevant. Obviously snow depth as such wouldnít have been of much interest to them, but maybe things like the amount of snow melt and the effects on streams and rivers was. Or things like Bogong Moths. They ate them, perhaps they noticed certain patterns in regards to food availability that could be attributed to the type of winter the Snowies experience.

I would think that given the sabotaging of the climate system humans have unleashed over the past 100years or so, trying to predict something as fickle as Australian snowfall would be very difficult no matter how sophisticated the modelling techniques. I would never dismiss the possibility of finding clues in the natural world and that oh so ďprimitive animal behaviourĒ.

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#1466301 - Yesterday at 23:08 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 325
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/06/23rd-june-australian-long-range-snow.html

My current thoughts around the long term snow outlook for Australia.

The next weekend system also looks interesting for some decent snowfall with a bit of model evolution.

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