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#1460995 - 05/04/2018 11:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1664
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Thanks Knot, yeah they have had some cold spells in the NH this year, a few warm ones as well. i think the key pattern I can see atm is just big extremes at both ends of the spectrum. Duality represented in the climate....

Another gorgeous blue sky day here. If the dams were full I would be loving this weather. Im still enjoying it, just a bit sketchy about any enhanced evaporation!

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#1460997 - 05/04/2018 12:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Knot
Thought you might find the following article interesting Gringo. Mindful of your comment about different hemispheric responses to solar minimums. In the context of our current April heat anomalies. Interesting times.
Note final paragraph. They had to beat the drum.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capi...gh-the-weekend/


The last chart in that article will be ignored by many who do not want to see the more holistic picture.

If only we could get our polar jet being more snake like, but even at its best the number of Southern Hemisphere long wave polar troughs fall short of the Northern Hemisphere number.
_________________________
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http://ozthunder.com

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#1461019 - 05/04/2018 16:36 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3835
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I've just been collating lists of existing records for consecutive days above 30/32/35 in April, many of which will not survive the next week. Some look likely to be broken by large margins - Dubbo (existing record 6 days over 30) looks likely to get to at least 12, and I suspect Richmond's (4) is going to be demolished, too.

Bathurst Ag (already with 4 30+ days, with another 7 forecast) has a good chance of having more 30+ days this April than it's had in the last 108 Aprils put together (8).

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#1461020 - 05/04/2018 16:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Blair Trewin]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2245
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
I've just been collating lists of existing records for consecutive days above 30/32/35 in April, many of which will not survive the next week. Some look likely to be broken by large margins - Dubbo (existing record 6 days over 30) looks likely to get to at least 12, and I suspect Richmond's (4) is going to be demolished, too.

Bathurst Ag (already with 4 30+ days, with another 7 forecast) has a good chance of having more 30+ days this April than it's had in the last 108 Aprils put together (8).


Truly astonishing that last stat Blair. Penrith is forecast for 9 days in a row (including today) so more than double the record at the Richmond site.

Looking at the current models that is almost certainly going to stretch to 10 ahead of a cold front. Depending on the timing of that front we could see 11. I would hazard a guess and say we will absolutely smash the avg max record for April (currently 26.4c) as well. It would take a significant and prolonged cold snap to prevent it being broken, neither of which i can see in the long range models or looking at the Long Wave Trough.

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#1461021 - 05/04/2018 16:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Blair Trewin]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6039
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Bathurst Ag (already with 4 30+ days, with another 7 forecast) has a good chance of having more 30+ days this April than it's had in the last 108 Aprils put together (8).


That is an extraordinary statistic!!!
Thanks for those stats Blair. I was just about to ask what records this run of 30+ days might break. You've just answered my question.
This heat spell is unrelenting and clearly unprecedented.

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#1461023 - 05/04/2018 16:50 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Teddy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2010
Posts: 352
Loc: Monash, Canberra 625m
Very interesting stats there Blair, you must have access to a wonderful database!

Canberra too must be certainly way up on average, we should be cooling down now and thinking about the first frost. It came close towards the end of March but those minimums went way up again.

Teddy

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#1461025 - 05/04/2018 16:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well Blair if it's going to be hot we may as well have a damned record!!!

And if it comes off as you said it is truly enormous.

Fair dinkum this (comparative) heat is just bonkers. But what can you do? smile

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#1461028 - 05/04/2018 17:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2580
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
The sun looks and feels hotter than normal. And brighter. Is there something governments are not telling us. Has the orbit changed? Something is different. Arrghhhhhhhhhh
_________________________
If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1461032 - 05/04/2018 17:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2580
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
_________________________
If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1461038 - 05/04/2018 17:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8633
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Last night's/morning storms viewed from Narrabeen beach (sorry Eddy, stole your photo idea poke ). Amazingly didn't get one lightning strike however the structure did get illuminated by the moon nicely.

Shutter was open for 30 secs, f5.0, ISO at 200. Still learning this photography stuff

Narrabeen_Moon_Storm

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#1461040 - 05/04/2018 17:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6039
Loc: Dural
Very nice pic LRH. You're learning quickly.
Digital photography with a proper DSLR is such fun, particularly through the learning phase.

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#1461041 - 05/04/2018 17:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 491
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Woah that's a mad photo LRH only if the storms would hit land though.

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#1461042 - 05/04/2018 17:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8633
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Thanks Homer and A2A, it sure is fun. Tried taking some shots of the milky way before the moon came up as well to see how that would turn out, not so great but more clear nights coming up for more opportunity smile


Edited by Long Road Home (05/04/2018 17:50)

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#1461047 - 05/04/2018 18:49 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4488
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
That's a beautiful picture LRH.

There was some interesting-looking cloud development to my SW early this afternoon, cauliflower towers, but they came to nothing.

------

There won't be records near the coast, in the absence of much of a Westerly component, OH is cut off at 27 each morning. The temperatures forecast for the coast for the coming week look like January, except sunny days only - every day about 19-27 (I think some of the 28-30 are probably overcooked). What most Sydneysiders will think of as perfect weather. I'll probably need to start watering the gardens again.

Inland is a different story, however. Olympic Park, closer to what most Sydneysiders experience, 7 days 28+, including 4 consecutive 30+.

EDIT - estimated average for first half of April: OH about 16-24, Olympic Park about 15-25.


Edited by Steve777 (05/04/2018 18:53)

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#1461049 - 05/04/2018 18:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 491
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Ec is going for a cold-front to arrive next Thursday bearing rain looks to be timed perfectly arriving in the afternoon. BOM not so sure about it but it appears that they may be expecting the change to move through later, looking at the rainfall maps.

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#1461077 - 06/04/2018 08:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10147
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Really hoping it's going to change after next week. But I've been hoping for similar things for many many weeks now shocked

As Knotty said - the sun FEELS so hot all the time. I feel like I would burn more quickly these days than say 20 years ago, probably not wrong but it feels like that on my skin. smile

LRH - good stuff with the photo smile

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#1461079 - 06/04/2018 08:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2580
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
To say the current weather pattern is like this
instead of this is an understatement

Skin is less tolerant of the sun as we age Dave for sure.
_________________________
If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1461088 - 06/04/2018 12:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4536
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
Fantastic picture LRH
_________________________
Nov Rain. 110.1mm
YTD-1036.9 mm
2017 rainfall-1172.1mm





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#1461113 - 06/04/2018 21:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 110
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Thought you might find the following article interesting Gringo. Mindful of your comment about different hemispheric responses to solar minimums. In the context of our current April heat anomalies. Interesting times.
Note final paragraph. They had to beat the drum.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capi...gh-the-weekend/

This is interesting. I checked New York, their average April high is about 15C. With the current cold the next 14 days look to be about 5-8C below the long term (30 year) average.

Info was from here

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/14-day-weather-trend/new-york/new-york

Our hemispheres heat will soon fail against the tilting earth.

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#1461121 - 07/04/2018 07:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2580
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
'Start spreading the news
I am leaving today
I want to be a part of it
New York, New York
These vagabond shoes
They are longing to stray
Right through the very heart of it
New York, New York...'
lol
_________________________
If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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