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#1461185 - 08/04/2018 09:31 NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
So relentlessly above average and close to record April heat.
Has to be worthy of it's own thread by now, with probably only a brief interruption on Tues this week.


Edited by Seabreeze (16/04/2018 21:16)
Edit Reason: shortened by 1 day due to no event thread use on that day (discussed in day-to-day instead)

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#1461190 - 08/04/2018 09:51 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
See my comment in day to day thread Derek about giving thread name no terminal date. Your call
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#1461191 - 08/04/2018 09:53 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
ashestoashes Online   content
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Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Replying to Knot on Day to Day weather thread this will definitely not last til May. The problem with April is that weather Systems are very stagnant as the switch happens to cold front mode. Most regions didn't have the autumn break in March so we are just stuck with heat pouring in from the Inland. Since SAM is negative all it will take for longwave troughs to line up and bang winter.

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#1461193 - 08/04/2018 09:59 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Maybe in a situation where you have some temp spikes in April you might have a point Ashes. But this is possibly a unique event in so many areas. Different ball game in my view.


Edited by Knot (08/04/2018 10:02)
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#1461194 - 08/04/2018 10:09 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Of course only 1 week of April has gone, but many places, such as Penrith and Bathurst are already well on track to defeat April 2005 and have a record month for high monthly max.
The sustained and relentless nature of the above average heat is what is interesting.
@knot, I'll ask the Mods to change the thread title if it continues.
Although there may be a separate thread if it stops for a week, and then reignites at or around Anzac Day etc.
Edit: Penrith's record high monthly max for April is now 2016.


Edited by DerekHV (08/04/2018 10:13)
Edit Reason: penrith april record monthly max

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#1461195 - 08/04/2018 10:11 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
No worries Derek.
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#1461205 - 08/04/2018 12:21 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3770
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Maybe not so low-level; current forecasts indicate record or near-record April temperatures over significant parts of northern Victoria, and western/southern inland NSW, on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. The Victorian (37.8) and NSW (40.0) April records may both come under pressure.

Records for consecutive days/most days above thresholds are likely to be obliterated; to give one example, Dubbo looks like starting the month with at least 13 consecutive days above 30, more than double the previous record.

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#1461207 - 08/04/2018 13:29 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: Blair Trewin]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Maybe not so low-level; current forecasts indicate record or near-record April temperatures over significant parts of northern Victoria, and western/southern inland NSW, on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. The Victorian (37.8) and NSW (40.0) April records may both come under pressure.

Records for consecutive days/most days above thresholds are likely to be obliterated; to give one example, Dubbo looks like starting the month with at least 13 consecutive days above 30, more than double the previous record.


Dubbo has already beaten it's highest daily April max earlier in the month, and looks like upping the daily record again tomorrow. (25 years of records there only)
Singleton has an outside chance tomorrow as well.
Places with long term records, like Tocal and Williamtown, are unlikely to challenge the 1986 daily record though.
Q: Is that NSW state April record in Deniliquin from 1875 reliable:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=74128


Edited by DerekHV (08/04/2018 13:32)

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#1461218 - 08/04/2018 18:52 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Morham Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 95
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Every day of this week will be about 9C above the long term average here. Long term average being 24.4.

Tomorrow is Penriths chance to beat the all time April heat record of 36.6. That mighty record has stood since ...2016.


SAM? La nina? Meaningless against the might of the heat coming from central Australia. This will last well into May in my opinion that is based on nothing but my feelings grin

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#1461220 - 08/04/2018 19:36 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Heat really ramping up in SA and parts of Vic now. Feels so surreal. I spent the day on the lake and it was indistinguable from January except for bearing of the setting sun.

I am with you Morham. Heat to continue into May. And May to be a standout for warmth. I believe places that have not recorded a 30 in May, such as Nobbys, will do so. This April is panning out to be something not experienced before in places. Not max temps per se, but the preponderance of days over 30.
So what's driving this?
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#1461221 - 08/04/2018 19:56 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: Morham]
Homer Online   content
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5621
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Morham
Tomorrow is Penriths chance to beat the all time April heat record of 36.6. That mighty record has stood since ...2016.





I have a problem with this statement, although I'm not questioning your thoughts. All good.
Penrith's records don't go back very far, so a record now doesn't convince me it's a record.
I know it's all we have to compare to, but I'm more convinced about 100 year records than 20 year records.
Even 100 year records only give us a small insight to our climatic history, but it's better than nothing.

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#1461222 - 08/04/2018 20:16 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4040
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
In the East of Sydney, the sea breeze is masking what is a truly bizarre run of heat for this late in the season. It was another nice day here after early cloud cleared, following another warm night.

I think that the true April record for the Sydney area is Richmond (old RAAF) with 38.2 on 4/4/1986 - full records back to late 1954, with patchy / incomplete records from 1939 to 1953. That doesn't look to be at risk, but average monthly maximum records could well be.

Another long record station is Sydney Airport, with 35.7 on 4/4/1986 (records since 1/4/1939).

EDIT: from a spreadsheet I downloaded a few years ago, some late season records for OH, the only station with records going back past 1939 (with online records, anyway):

Last 33: 12/4/2006
Last 32: 20/4/1922 (32.8)
Last 31: 27/4/1919
Last 30: 01/5/1919


Edited by Steve777 (08/04/2018 20:23)

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#1461224 - 08/04/2018 20:29 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3770
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: DerekHV



Q: Is that NSW state April record in Deniliquin from 1875 reliable:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=74128


No. NSW didn't introduce standard screens until the early 1900s; Sydney's pre-1900 instrument set-up is reasonably comparable with the present (at least in summer), but most inland sites read several degrees too warm. Often thermometers were simply hung under tin verandahs, with predictable consequences. (A few sites, notably Armidale, had the opposite problem; following a practice sometimes used in the UK at the time, thermometers were kept in an unheated room indoors, leading to a reasonable approximation of the mean temperature but a greatly suppressed diurnal range).

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#1461225 - 08/04/2018 21:22 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: Homer]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 95
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Morham
Tomorrow is Penriths chance to beat the all time April heat record of 36.6. That mighty record has stood since ...2016.





I have a problem with this statement, although I'm not questioning your thoughts. All good.
Penrith's records don't go back very far, so a record now doesn't convince me it's a record.
I know it's all we have to compare to, but I'm more convinced about 100 year records than 20 year records.
Even 100 year records only give us a small insight to our climatic history, but it's better than nothing.

This is true. This current heat might actually be more normal for Penrith than the 20 year record sample we have.

Hopefully not, for the sake of Penrithians! smile

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#1461229 - 08/04/2018 21:53 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Nobbys a good chance of beating its April highest min this coming week.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1461232 - 08/04/2018 23:52 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: Steve777]
deanh Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 69
Loc: Campbelltown, Sydney
Originally Posted By: Steve777
I think that the true April record for the Sydney area is Richmond (old RAAF) with 38.2 on 4/4/1986 - full records back to late 1954, with patchy / incomplete records from 1939 to 1953. That doesn't look to be at risk, but average monthly maximum records could well be.

Camden was a little warmer that day at 38.5 degrees... does that count instead? poke

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_068192_All.shtml

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#1461233 - 09/04/2018 05:46 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: deanh]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: deanh
Originally Posted By: Steve777
I think that the true April record for the Sydney area is Richmond (old RAAF) with 38.2 on 4/4/1986 - full records back to late 1954, with patchy / incomplete records from 1939 to 1953. That doesn't look to be at risk, but average monthly maximum records could well be.

Camden was a little warmer that day at 38.5 degrees... does that count instead? poke

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_068192_All.shtml


Good find, that is the Sydney Basin record for April as far as I am concerned.
Surprised nobody else noticed, bar you living in the Southwest.
Everyone normally just looks at Penrith and Richmond RAAF (the old site) for Sydney Basin records.
Parramatta for instance had the December max record for the basin from 1994 at 43.9C, up until last December that is when Penrith got 44.1C.
Ironically this is still less than the November record, which is held by the current Richmond RAAF station. (not the old one which closed in 1994)
The current Richmond RAAF station also has the February record for the basin as well, it just pipped Penrith in 2017 at 47.0C. The old Richmond RAAF still has the big one though, the Jan record from 1939.


Edited by DerekHV (09/04/2018 05:55)

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#1461235 - 09/04/2018 06:51 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Keep them stats comin guys. Really good stuff to chew on.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1461237 - 09/04/2018 07:59 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Penrith could get close to it's 2016 record today, as could Singo.
Camden's record for the basin in 1986, as pointed out by Dean, is the one to beat.

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#1461238 - 09/04/2018 08:08 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: deanh]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4040
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: deanh
Camden was a little warmer that day at 38.5 degrees... does that count instead? poke

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_068192_All.shtml


Yes it does - good find. I missed that.

------

I see that Sydney OH has now been 'upgraded' to 33 for today, getting close to record territory (34.2 in 2016).The Westerly is up and running and is apparently expected to blow for most of the day. The change due late this afternoon looks weak and short-lived, with the heat resuming Wednesday.

850 temps are a Summer-like 17-18 degrees over Sydney today. It might be hotter later this week, with 850 temps then around 18-19 with Westerlies, but cloud might take the edge of temps then.

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